Hi everyone,
At about 30000 shares available for 65.50. I think this is a very much attractive buying value for #LCEY. As I think LCEY is too hot(not in the share market,but the potential of the company) and it will break (at now it is in 65 level) the resistant made by technical activities.
innam, rohit,MW what do you think about good price range for buy #LCEY ?
16 replies, innam 12 Apr 10posted by cse, 10 Mar 10
This post has been viewed 590 times, by 16 logged-in users the last being rehan.
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reply from innam, 10 Mar 10
I've said this before, you have to be patient with LCEY. It might take about 3-4 months to realize its potential. Given the potential i think 65 is a good price to buy because it doesn't look like it will fall to the 60 levels...
reply from rohit, 10 Mar 10
Hi
I saw the first tick of red on LCEY 45% rise in just one month, well i would rather wait to buy, it needs consolidation may be some more correction before it becomes a buy for.
Those interested in trading momentum should look for the price of two days close above 67
Thanks
Rohit
reply from cse.see, 10 Mar 10
This has Copied from my last Post......
I think this is most undervaluing share in the current market.
09 months ended as at 31.12.2009 EPS was 13.17.
Last quarter Profit is 272.8 Mn.
Net Asset Value per share is Rs.68.54.
Cash Flow from operating activities for the 09 months ended Rs.880 Mn. This is more than 100% growth with comparatively last year.
Lankem Group revenue includes Plantation Sector, Hotel Sector, Chemical Sector, Consumer sector & Construction/Hardware Sectors.
Company’s subsidiary Kotagala Planatation has purchased 20 Mn shares (56.56%) of the capital of CW Mackie on January’2010.
Lankem Ceylon Issued capital is 21 Mn Shares. Already major 20 shareholders have 18.1 Mn shares. Balance 2.9 Mn with others. Lodged in CDS 6.3 Mn Shares. Can assume that moving Qty is very very low.
Current price level = Rs.66/-
09 months EPS 13.17
Accordingly P/E Ratio Rs.66 / 13.17 = 5.01
Predicted Annualized EPS 17.56 or more with consolidated CW Mackie & Kotagala Profits.
Predicted Share Price at year end 17.56 x 5.01 = Rs.88/-
But, last 04 quarters Lankem Ceylon P/E is 10 times.
If price adjusted accordingly,
Current Price would be 13.17 x 10 = Rs.130/- level.
Year end price would be 17.56 x 10 = Rs.175/- level.
Therefore, there is a possibility to pass Rs.100/- mark in quickly.
reply from fair investe, 10 Mar 10
Hi Rohit,
you said #LCEY rise 45% and now you think there might be a correction. But I think a correction brought the LCEY to 65-70 level. Last quarter results were amazing for the LCEY (EPS = 12, NAV = 69) so a correction was happened. Also I think that with the high rubber prices of this quarter, LCEY will extend their EPS to 20-25 level. Therefore base is the 65 level. Also new subsidiaries (CWM, Sunagro) which going to be performed since 2010, will not only extend their revenue segments,but also they will add values to their current businesses.
reply from innam, 10 Mar 10
fair investe rohit's charts don't know about the CWM acquisition or the high rubber prices so don't worry too much about his perspective.
don't bother trying to convince him about fundamentals, he is is sitting in India and trying to analyze the CSE based on 100% technicals....sometimes his approach may be right, sometimes our approach will be right....but when it comes to LCEY fundamentals is the way to go because charts are blind to the latest developments in LCEY (as well as DIAL for that matter).
reply from fair investe, 10 Mar 10
Yes you are correct innam. But actually I don't want to convince him,but there are lot of people referring these posts. I just want to convince others 65 is not the roof value for LCEY but it is a ground value, because being honest I believe it also.
Rohit, we are appreciate your hard work but I believe your system need modifications. When a quarter result released the normal behavior is share price adjust according to EPS. This theory works regardless of what the company doing. So that's not fundamental,it is technical. As far as I found your system is not react to EPS.
reply from rohit, 10 Mar 10
hi fair investe,
the 1st buy signal for LCEY was given by our stystenm in Dec 09,
Isaw the first tick of red on daily charts on tody's closing, I don't want to repeat whatever I have said about tech analysis before but here is something you should know.
Whatever the news may be the insiders know it much earlier, then rumors breakout after that the actual news comes. Now between the insiders knowing about something and that news becoming public there is huge gap and in the mean time most of the news gets factored in.
I am still not surprised by suggestions about the modification in the system :) this system has proven itself again and again. This is the first year you guys have seen such a rise in your markets and public is somewhat talking about the markets, may be some headlines are there on the markets are down.
Remember on the very first post I mentioned CSE is in its infancy there is still long way to go 18 years till the final wave 5 completes on the yearly charts.
Wait for at least one year, don't take any of the advice about the stocks on the site or by me just watch them, let the time tell the ture story.
http://lankaswingtrading.com/myimages/lcey.png
Look at the chart yourself specially at the bottom chart - see when the blue ticks have started coming in and see the price movement since they have become positive and don't forget to see the last tick which is RED based on today's data.
The blue tick after red ticks on the bottom charts (vertical lines one) came after lots of red this meant that investors are gettng back in.
This is more than enough alert to keep that stock on the ticker list.
Tech analysis helps you to get out of bias because the system has no bias.
More over I can see a Flag Pattern on the LCEY to confim that pattern it has to close above 67 for two days atleast Flag pattern is a bullish pattern and read my first reply on this post. "Momentum traders may look at two days close above 67 for immediate term position"
Once again
Charts do not predict anything they only reveal.
Thanks
Rohit
reply from MarketWatch, 10 Mar 10
We should have patient for some. We should keep #Lcey under our radar now.
Most important factors:
Value and future earnings.
We can see gradual growth in following areas first.
Agri-Food sector
Transportation
Hotel and travel sector
I forgot to mention Plantation sector. They also will announce good results.
Then banking sector also will benefit.
In the long run, many sectors will benefit such as cement, ceramic, cable, production and distributing and trading etc.
Invest in fundamentally sound undervalued stocks now.
reply from MarketWatch, 11 Mar 10
Can economists, analyst and chartists forecast next global market crash, correction, etc in advance. I don’ think so. Now some are talking about multi year bull market in Asia Ex Japan (Some are forecasting now). Instead, I see sector orientated bull markets
However, I can see clearly, there will be gold crisis and currency crisis in the future.
We will see strong sector oriented bull markets during next 10 years. Therefore, we should have investment strategy for rotation time to time.
For some stocks, we should forget volatility. If we sell too early, we will lose lifetime opportunities and biggest rally in those stocks. For these types of stocks, we must never make use of charts. We must fall in love with these stocks. Experienced and sophisticated investors know how to invest in these types of stocks
Stick to analysis that you are comfortable with. Do not try to change. In the long run value masters and fundamentally oriented intelligent investors will outperform other investors.
In one period, some commodity will out perform others and in some period, there will demand for some other commodities.
Investor and traders should avoid frequent movement of their money from one country to another country. Because some will lose their money in a currency crisis. They should keep at least their money in a country for more than five years.
Globally there are plenty of economists, advisors and analysts. Still they cannot fix the financial systems once for all. Can they make multi millionaires by forecasting correctly?
What happened in the past in the market will happen again in a different way.
reply from fair investe, 11 Mar 10
Hi Rohit,
Thank you very much for the explanation.
Few days ago you or someone else criticized panic buying, selling of BALA.
You said insiders know earlier than it goes to public. But is this the only case of making a trend ? Just focus the thing pointed out in the post.That is 'resistant made by technical activities'. Market is not 0% of manipulation.
Sometime we can think we are investing so smartly by referring these trend charts but sometime we might be the biggest fools in the world. Don't forget we are not the only party who know about these trend chats. They want us to be panic and they are always think one step ahead of us. They can plot a part of the trends and allow us to forecast the rest of the curve.They make trends and show trend and make us panic.
Your system ask us to be panic. But we are trying to say do not be panic by referring those trend lines, just believe fundamentals with your company. Fundamentals are the real factor which make trends.
You said your system has prove it again and again, but considering your decisions on LCEY for me it has proven all the thing. That's why I say you system needs some modifications. It should prevent me from being panic on artificial trends.
reply from rohit, 11 Mar 10
Hi Fair Investe
No point is trying to provide you with the information you are not even open to.
"The biggest mistake by anyone is to reject something which he does not know about"
:)
Rohit
reply from fair investe, 11 Mar 10
Hi Rohit,
I am not criticize your system. There is no system which work 100% correctly (Even windows, Linux, oracle). Patches are going every week and they are improving their systems. Upto now your system is a good one we can forecast lot of details. But I like it to be improved from here.
Also don't think much about my comments because I am commenting based on my believes. My theory is letting others know and prevent harmful things but if you think you can't do it then only adjust with it. Up to now your system has bring me to choose it at second option. But I would like if I could use your system at the first place :)
250k has been sold around 65. But I was wondering why someone sell 250k shares with great potential. It is important to know why it is?
Sometimes people don't want to trace their names in quarter reports.
reply from fair investe, 31 Mar 10
250k has been sold around 65. But I was wondering why someone sell 250k shares with great potential. It is important to know why it is.
Sometimes people don't want to trace their names in quarter reports.
reply from innam, 12 Apr 10
#LCEY went past 75 today. Sometimes fundamentals and some patience does work...
Please use the forum for topics related to 'investments' only, be responsible when posting and replying to posts and respect other people's views. Thank you!
