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Stocks
BFL, Bairaha Farms Ltd

152 LKR up 12.60 or 9.0% chg. 425,400 vol. 62,985,620 tnvr. 297 trades
Last traded 16s ago

Mentioned in 125 posts...

  • [Updated] Why #BFL worth more than Rs.200/-

  • Financial highlights below, 01. Compared to last year 1st quarter #BFL GP increased by 214% without increasing their Cost of sales. Revenue 30.06.2009 – 476 Mn 30.06.2010 ...
  • 20 replies, cse.see 2 min ago posted by cse.see, 1 hour ago

  • [Updated] The risk in #BFL and alike.

  • I learnt a lot of good picks from this forum. Thank you for all those who gave information to invest in prospective firms. One small thing I wish to remind about shares in poult...
  • 3 replies, sumithre 1 hour ago posted by newuser, 13 hours ago

  • [Updated] #BFL High Turnover!

  • 33,470,830.00 Turnover on BFL Shares today, and it has reached its Maximum selling price. Currently no sellers and many buyers. Hold on to ur shares do not sell !
  • #BFL
  • 4 replies, sumithre 15 hours ago posted by livestock, 1 day ago

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • Dear MW, Chinwi, Cse.see Iam planning on rotating stocks. PLase advice me ... #BFL #BALA #LOLC #DOCK #RICH #CFIN #lcey #NEH #Kgal #SPEN out of these stocks (other than ...
  • 3 replies, avatar 2 days ago posted by avatar, 2 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • Thank you Marketwatch and Cse.see and all the other who contribute towards this forum.. I have been very unsuccessful upto now in the stock market as i did not have the time to f...
  • 1 replies, chinwi 3 days ago posted by avatar, 3 days ago

  • [Updated] This is what I said in 2009 and 2010 on some stocks!

  • • reply from MarketWatch, 18 Oct 09 • It is better to concentrate more on banking and financial sector and few other sectors due to lower interest rate, foreign inflows in trea...
  • 3 replies, DoctorJV 3 days ago posted by MarketWatch, 3 days ago

  • [Updated] CSE – possible breaking barriers

  • Below the possible barriers for next 03 months.(By 30th November’2010) Do you agree? #BFL possible to break Rs.243/- (Today’s Price 27.08.2010 – Rs.133/-) #GRAN possible to br...
  • 19 replies, MarketWatch 2 days ago posted by cse.see, 4 days ago

  • [Updated] Keep an eye on #BFL, #GRAN and #TAFL!

  • Following are their psychological barriers: #BFL Rs.120/- #GRAN Rs.50/- #TAFL Rs.25/- #BFL is number one value gem in the market. P/E ration around 8 ROE around 25 Ma...
  • 13 replies, MarketWatch 4 days ago posted by MarketWatch, 4 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL ON ITS WAY

  • At last #BFL is on the upward trend again. I was kinda worried for a moment.
  • 0 replies posted by madu, 5 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL last call

  • I beleieve its the last oppurunaty today to buy BFL around 125 price range. By tomorrow all that you got to do is sit back and enjoy the ride! Good luck then. :)
  • 0 replies posted by fatwolf, 5 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • BFL, BFL, What to do with u?
  • 1 replies, fatwolf 5 days ago posted by madu, 5 days ago

  • [Updated] Poultry or leasing ?

  • Last week there was a massive discussion about #BFL and some amount of #TAFL.But now it turned to bank and leasing sector .I bought #BFL for 135 LKR.I also hold #TAFL. What will ha...
  • 3 replies, MarketWatch 5 days ago posted by ab123, 5 days ago

  • [Updated] Good time to buy #BFL

  • I believe its really the best time to by BFL at the rates around 125. With the profit taking and the month end syndrom ending it will hit 140s easily by friday. Experts?
  • 2 replies, UG79007 6 days ago posted by fatwolf, 7 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • Whats up with #bfl, will it continue downward? I'm stuck with shares i purchased at 133/=
  • 2 replies, livestock 7 days ago posted by madu, 7 days ago

  • [Updated] Where will you put your money during next 12 months?

  • Latest update: Some of my favorite picks are: # COMB, #BFL, #LFIN, #GRAN # SPEN, #DOCK, #DFCC, #CFIN, #SAMP and #HNB Reasons for my selection: Management, Future Growth, Abil...
  • 9 replies, MarketWatch 7 days ago posted by MarketWatch, 7 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • What is really happening to this share. y is it coming down unexpectedly.
  • 10 replies, Themask 6 days ago posted by Chairs, 8 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL Barrier

  • Now #BFL going 134.00. Will it go further? Any ideas..
  • 1 replies, sumithre 10 days ago posted by vidunar, 10 days ago

  • [Updated] Chicken Run

  • Can you remember 02 months back, MW has said...... “Barriers for #BFL - Rs.90/-, Rs. 98.75, Rs.100/-, Rs, 112.75, Rs.120/- ( If #BFL break Rs.120/- barrier it will go up further)”...
  • 2 replies, shaikanwar 10 days ago posted by cse.see, 11 days ago

  • [Updated] What do you think about following shares?

  • I hope following shares are undervalued in the present market context. 1) #SEYBX 2) #CFIN 3) #LCEY 4) #BFL 5) #JINS We have already seen a rapid appreciation in #BFL and...
  • 7 replies, shaikanwar 11 days ago posted by snowman, 12 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • Would they Share Split anytime Sooon???
  • 0 replies posted by ilfy_split, 13 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • Does anyone concerns about their Quarter (30.06.2010) report and how they improved the profit margin and high EPS. Their Revenue did not improve dramatically. But they have redu...
  • #BFL
  • 1 replies, sumithre 13 days ago posted by prabashk, 13 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL today's rally

  • Experts, BFL seems to have started another rally today, last time this happened, it went up about 40% before the turnaround happened. In your opinion where would this time's ra...
  • 2 replies, Weeraman 14 days ago posted by Weeraman, 14 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL Vs. #TAFL

  • MW, Cse.see, Can i know, though #BFL is the market leader now why is it that all going for #TAFL and that has reached the barrier leaving #BFL still in the Rs.90-100 range. Can an...
  • 5 replies, Suran 15 days ago posted by Rizan, 17 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL - Buy Recomended by Asia Securities

  • Just now I received analysis report published by Asia Securities stock broker’s research team about Bairaha Farms. It has analyzed by Mr.Akeela Rasheed. His mail address is ---> ...
  • 17 replies, MarketWatch 16 days ago posted by cse.see, 17 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL today is XD day and may drop in price?

  • People who hold #BFL on yesterday will get dividend of Rs. 1/=. But for person who buy today will not get the dividend on this time? So will the #BFL price may drop a bit today?
  • 3 replies, ilovemoney 19 days ago posted by vpwvpw, 19 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL Performming WELL :-) !

  • According to my Technical analysis #BFL will [possibly] hit 120/-. Worth to collect at lower rate at this time. *Edited by the admin, amended the statement using will with will...
  • 1 replies, Invest77 19 days ago posted by tharinda1, 19 days ago

  • [Updated] #LFIN, #RICH, #CIC, #BFL, #LION, #DIST

  • Better to monitor following stocks. all stocks fundamentally strong. all stocks undervalued. all stocks to be adjust with current P/E ratios. all stocks few people collected du...
  • 6 replies, cse.see 20 days ago posted by cse.see, 20 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • will #BFL share price go down further? is it safe to keep this shares?
  • 0 replies posted by rm, 20 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • i bought a huge quantity of BFL today at the maximum price.. then it came down to Rs98 will it go down further? what do you think?
  • 7 replies, Suran 21 days ago posted by avatar, 21 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL Going Down...

  • Im loosng my money. How lng wil it take to recvr.
  • 3 replies, sumithre 21 days ago posted by milindaperer, 22 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • Tomorrow will hit 104.50 !
  • #BFL
  • 5 replies, redhawk3000 22 days ago posted by sampath2009, 22 days ago

  • [Updated] Under valued share #BFL

  • BFL' s annualised EPS is Rs26.00 now it's price earning ration is 3.5. i think it is very very under valued share. its price earning ratio will move until 10. therefore it's pr...
  • 3 replies, akp1973 22 days ago posted by stock SL, 23 days ago

  • [Updated] collect #BFL at this price level

  • BFL' s annualised EPS is Rs26.00 now it's price earning ration is 3.5. i think it is very very under valued share. its price earning ratio will move until 10. therefore it's pr...
  • 0 replies posted by vasu, 23 days ago

  • [Updated] Is it safe to buy #BFL on Moday?

  • Is it safe to buy #BFL on monday? Pls help me! I wnted to buy this when it was in 60s but unfortunately missed it. If it's gona go up another 10% it'll be around 104-106LKR on ...
  • 4 replies, cse 22 days ago posted by godswen, 23 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • Symbol : BFL.N0000 Company : BAIRAHA FARMS As at : 13-AUG-2010 09:40 AM SUMMARY Time Qty Price Varience 09:30:02 1,400 95.00 8.60 09:30:02 600 95.00 8.60 09:30:02 100 95.0...
  • 0 replies posted by belpa, 25 days ago

  • [Updated] High demand for #BFL & #MAL

  • See, after open the market, with in 05 minutes time, high demand for #BFL & #MAL. 10% higher margin achived.
  • 14 replies, sampath2009 23 days ago posted by cse.see, 26 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL - Revaluation

  • #BFL quarter on quarter growth.... 30.06.2010 - 104.1 Mn *(#BFL history highest earnings) 31.03.2010 - 71.1 Mn 31.12.2009 - 21.8 Mn 30.09.2009 - 24.9 Mn 30.06.2009 - 12.5 Mn ...
  • 14 replies, MarketWatch 23 days ago posted by cse.see, 26 days ago

  • [Updated] If #BFL post EPS above 5 for This Quarter...

  • If #BFL post EPS above 5 for This Quarter, i must say it will move to 100 easily. Will u all agaree with me if i say at the end of this financial year #BFL will hit 200/= Ann...
  • 11 replies, MarketWatch 23 days ago posted by PGCR, 27 days ago

  • [Updated] #BFL: The Gilded Feather in our Cap!

  • #BFL annual Report 2009/10 :An excellent year placed us as Sri-Lanka’s Largest and the leading producer of day old boiler chicks. BFL has new markets from north and east in addi...
  • 4 replies, ruckshansilv 4 Aug 10 posted by MarketWatch, 3 Aug 10

  • [Updated] #BFL - Still Worth to buy ??

  • I thought of buying some quantity of #BFL, because it is a most undervalued stock(as per many experts). but suddenly i came across with this article http://www.sundayobserver....
  • 3 replies, MarketWatch 26 Jul 10 posted by upuldi, 26 Jul 10

  • [Updated] #HNB.X

  • Mr.Market Watch Mr. Ranil, During the last 12 months this share has been on the incline, reaching a land mark of Rs.200 and or thereabouts. However, in mid June a steady decline ...
  • 3 replies, MarketWatch 14 Jul 10 posted by don.senaka, 13 Jul 10

  • [Updated] #BFL is expanding their business now!

  • Date: 2010-03-20 Bairaha Group becomes the largest and leading producer of broiler day-old-chicks. http://bairahalk.com/news.php?nid=3 Date: 2009-11-20 Award for Annual R...
  • 3 replies, MarketWatch 3 Jul 10 posted by MarketWatch, 3 Jul 10

  • [Updated] #BFL, TAFL..

  • hii all.... what do you think about BFL, TAFL now? thank all..
  • 1 replies, MarketWatch 1 Jul 10 posted by chabu, 30 Jun 10

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • Dear M/W, What is the NEW price barrier for #BFL ? I hope it will break Rs. 85/= level soon. Please correct me, if I'm wrong.
  • 9 replies, MarketWatch 1 Jul 10 posted by sampath2009, 29 Jun 10

  • [Updated] Foreign purchases yesterday!

  • Foreign Purchases Rs.734,414,312 Foreign Sales Rs.285,936,779 Remember I said whenever foreigners buy stocks more market is going down at that time. Why is that? ...
  • 5 replies, MarketWatch 29 Jun 10 posted by MarketWatch, 28 Jun 10

  • [Updated] Common things in #BFL, #KGAL, #KVAL and #BALA!

  • Following are some common things in above stocks! They have the best current ratio in their group. Both #BFL and #BALA has the lowest debt in their group. #BFL and #BALA have ...
  • 5 replies, DoctorJV 26 Jun 10 posted by MarketWatch, 26 Jun 10

  • [Updated] How Do v know wen its the maximum price for #BFL

  • MarketWatch plz reply..actually how will we know when the #BFL or any other certain share is at its maximum price and its the time to sell it off..or the next moment i think to sel...
  • 3 replies, MarketWatch 23 Jun 10 posted by Rizan, 22 Jun 10

  • [Updated] Duty waived on imported Wheat Grain ?

  • It is reported that the Finance Ministry has given approval to waive the duty on imported wheat grain with immediate effect. Duty 15% or Rs.10/- per Kg. An impetus to #BFL, #GRA...
  • TAP
  • 2 replies, don.senaka 23 Jun 10 posted by don.senaka, 22 Jun 10

  • [Updated] More return from CSE

  • Several times in this forum I have mentioned (last 05 months) the following shares to be reach the following levels. (Please search my posts & read). #HAYL - Hayleys 185/- level...
  • 2 replies, MarketWatch 17 Jun 10 posted by cse.see, 17 Jun 10

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • Bairaha Farms PLC (BFPLC) is a Sri Lanka-based company. The Company owns and manages chicken processing factory. It also owns and operates three breeder farms and provides Eliza an...
  • 1 replies, vasu 16 Jun 10 posted by stock SL, 16 Jun 10

  • [Updated] #TAFL - Moving up

  • I was expecting a move by it for a while now since #BFL has done well for the past few weeks. Is there any news about this company?
  • 1 replies, vasy 17 Jun 10 posted by aattanayake, 16 Jun 10

  • [Updated] #LCEY

  • Will you start moving anytime soon. #BFL was around 50-53 for 2weeks before the rally. Now is the time for the rally in #LCEY. Perhaps a dividend announcement will start the ral...
  • buyHighEPS
  • 0 replies posted by pakka111, 14 Jun 10

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • They have exported broiler parent breeder chicks. It looks like management is taking step to expand their business not only in Sri-Lanka but also in foreign markets. I think the...
  • 7 replies, sampath2009 11 Jun 10 posted by vasu, 10 Jun 10

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • Hey i have bought 1100 shares from BFL. My average price is Rs 61. Mr. MW what is your idea about my purchase. Will it be a good one. Plz tell me something about it.. Thank you
  • 4 replies, MarketWatch 6 Jun 10 posted by Nishanthaher, 4 Jun 10

  • [Updated] #BFL

  • Hey Guys what do you think about BFL.. will it be good in future. Expert share your valuable ideas..
  • 0 replies posted by Nishanthaher, 3 Jun 10

  • [Updated] PABC and BFL: Possible winning patterns

  • #PABC I noticed that it seems to have constructed a cup-with-handle that started late Feb at around 22.75 then extending down -30% to 16 at the start of April. April 30th it sho...
  • 7 replies, rehan 7 Jun 10 posted by rehan, 3 Jun 10

  • [Updated] Resistent Levels

  • Plz tell me about the resistant levels of #BFL and #CWM.
  • 3 replies, MarketWatch 3 Jun 10 posted by ur, 3 Jun 10

  • [Updated] #BFL on credit..

  • Hi, I am a new here.... After reading all the comments about BFL , i am thinking of buying BFL.... But I have to do it on credit.... Can some one plz advise me whether it is ok ...
  • 3 replies, MarketWatch 30 May 10 posted by Thilina.ac, 29 May 10

  • [Updated] #BFL, TAFL, HDFC, HAYL, W002

  • I am a new investor I have a portfolio which consists of BFL, TAFL, HDFC, HAYL, W002 Bought prices are 1) BFL=52. 2) TAFL=14.50 3) HDFC=165 4) HAYL=286 5) W0002=33 So ...
  • 4 replies, chabu 22 May 10 posted by chabu, 21 May 10

  • [Updated] # BFL run....

  • Is #BFL setttling or does it have enough legs to move more?????? ( MarketWatch, Innam, Cse.see, Rohit .. your views are much appriciated ) regards
  • #BFL
  • 2 replies, MarketWatch 19 May 10 posted by investor1984, 19 May 10

  • [Updated] Next Hot Stock

  • Last few week this forum was very bullish about the #BFL & it was a correct one. What will be the next hot stock???? ( MW, INNAM, CSE.SEE, ROHIT this is for you ). ( I am thinking ...
  • NexthotStock
  • 7 replies, ranka 19 May 10 posted by investor1984, 19 May 10

  • [Updated] The CSE Chicken Run

  • Looks like the poultry companies have recorded good profits. #BFL and #GRAN have shown big profit growth. #TAFL has also returned to profitability. Alot has been said on this...
  • 1 replies, MarketWatch 14 May 10 posted by msninvest, 14 May 10

  • [Updated] #SINS, #BFL, #LCEY

  • Keep eye on Singer Sri Lanka, Biraha & Lankem. #SINS - Recorded profits #BFL - Recorded profits #LCEY - start moving
  • 5 replies, cse_stock 16 May 10 posted by cse.see, 14 May 10

  • [Updated] #BFL Profits up

  • earning per share for last 3 months is 4.45 and for the yeard ended is 8.15. NAV 36.08 LUKS LIKE A GOOD BUY. any comments
  • 9 replies, MarketWatch 14 May 10 posted by coolc, 14 May 10

  • [Updated] Will #HNB go up in near future.

  • Im new to this forum & to the stock market as well. Recently I bought #HNB.X @ 151/- . Should I sell them or shall keep them for some time. Will it go up further. Will they anno...
  • 0 replies posted by indu, 2 May 10

  • [Updated] #BFL to brake it's all times high...

  • #BFL broke it's all times high in 2010-04-20 it's Rs.50. Now it's going up again. This week it will definitely go up. And I think it will reach to 55 in this week..
  • 4 replies, MarketWatch 2 May 10 posted by bloomberg, 2 May 10

  • [Updated] #BUKI, #GRAN, #OSEA

  • I hope the above shares will increase gradually in the coming week. #BUKI is increasing. Is there going to be a share split? #GRAN: increase may be due to the effect of #BFL ...
  • 8 replies, MarketWatch 2 May 10 posted by snowman, 29 Apr 10

  • [Updated] Buying and Selling shares

  • Hi MW, Would you kindly advice @ which point shares should be sell when it is in the upward trend and @ which point shares should be accumulated if it is in the downward trend. ...
  • 3 replies, MarketWatch 30 Apr 10 posted by zahvie, 27 Apr 10

  • [Updated] #BFL & #GRAN

  • Marketwathch is correct in the prediction. BFL is moving up. What do you think about #GRAN? This too moving up slowly. When is RAIGAM going to be listed and what price do you th...
  • 4 replies, Suran 20 Apr 10 posted by snowman, 20 Apr 10

  • [Updated] TWO STOCKS TO WATCH NOW! #BFL and #BALA

  • In November 10th of 2009, I mentioned following stocks as stocks to watch: Stocks to watch now: #HAYC, # RCL, #HNB, # SAMP,# DOCK, # GRAN, # BFL, #CFIN, # LFIN, # COMB, #DFCC, #HA...
  • 19 replies, rehan 21 Apr 10 posted by MarketWatch, 14 Apr 10

  • [Updated] #AGAL

  • I had written about #BALA, #BFL, #RICH, #LFIN many months before and suported the views of MW, especially on #BALA and #BFL. Now the market has identified them. On the same line...
  • 6 replies, MarketWatch 13 Apr 10 posted by pissa6666, 13 Apr 10

  • [Updated] #Sun , #MPRH

  • ANY ONE THING ABOUT ,Tomorrow thease shares will break this levels. #SUN 60/= (Yes) #MPRH 50/= ( I feel ,still good share under 40/=) #JINS ...
  • 2 replies, jkh 12 Apr 10 posted by vasy, 11 Apr 10

  • [Updated] BFL - GRAN/TAFL

  • There were very positive remarks made about #BFL in recent times about poultry eggs, chicken in demand locally and abroad. In that context, don't you think #GRAN & TAFL are underv...
  • 7 replies, MarketWatch 14 Apr 10 posted by don.senaka, 6 Apr 10

  • [Updated] Good price to buy...?

  • Pls advise the good buy price for the below. #BFL / #LCEY / #BALA / #CFLB / #KVAL Thanks......
  • 7 replies, MarketWatch 2 Apr 10 posted by sajcolombo, 1 Apr 10

  • [Updated] #ATL, #BFL, #BALA movements

  • Would anyone have any insights on the above.... ATL went up by approx. 12% over the last week or so, would anyone know whats driving it and what would be the future potential in th...
  • 1 replies, MarketWatch 9 Mar 10 posted by Suran, 9 Mar 10

  • [Updated] What is their mission and vision of #GREG?

  • COMB, SAMP, KVAL, CTHR and BFL etc has vision and mission. What is their mission and vision of #GREG? Can somebody explain their business plan and future prospects? What are ...
  • 0 replies posted by MarketWatch, 9 Mar 10

  • [Updated] #BFL, #GRAN, and #TAFL day

  • today the market seems to be bullish about bairaha, grain elavators and three acre farms... any comments on this????
  • 1 replies, MarketWatch 24 Feb 10 posted by fazmin, 24 Feb 10

  • [Updated] Will #BFL enter following export market as well?

  • I also give below some other positing in the same website. Some can do some study on the Agri-Business sector. What is the outlook for bio-energy in Sri-Lanka? Thnaks. http://ww...
  • 7 replies, MarketWatch 22 Feb 10 posted by MarketWatch, 21 Feb 10

  • [Updated] Bairaha Farms #BFL is a golden egg now.

  • BFL just released their quarterly ending results. As at 31/12/2009 when compare with nine month ending 31/12/2008 Cash and cash equivalent has increased by more than four ti...
  • 9 replies, MarketWatch 16 Feb 10 posted by MarketWatch, 16 Feb 10

  • [Updated] Next IPO: Ceylon Tea Brokers

  • Keep eye on undervalued food and brewage companies and related companies in 2010. Stocks to watch now: #BFL, #BALA and Ceylon Tea brokers if IPO price is right. http://w...
  • 2 replies, MarketWatch 7 Feb 10 posted by MarketWatch, 7 Feb 10

  • [Updated] What Mr Market need is Political stability!

  • There should be IPO similar to #NDB, Telecom and attractive plantations like in the past. I think sooner than later policy makers will list Sri-Lanka insurance. If investors see...
  • 0 replies posted by MarketWatch, 27 Jan 10

  • [Updated] More positive news in the tourism sector!

  • I think not only tourism companies but also food processing companies such as #BFL and transportation companies will benefit from the increased tourist arrivals in 2010 and 2011. ...
  • 1 replies, innam 9 Jan 10 posted by MarketWatch, 9 Jan 10

  • [Updated] #BFL and #GRAN..!

  • Hi all, As i read through the previous posts, came to know these will have a good potential in future. Just wanted to know whether it is worthy buying them in 19.00 and 13.50 lev...
  • 3 replies, MarketWatch 16 Nov 09 posted by venuje, 13 Nov 09

  • [Updated] Yes! What will happen near future......

  • News or information is one of the KEY factors of any market. So, I also personally believe IMF loan will come after this Friday, but it's not essential to SL, it does not relate...
  • 14 replies, innam 1 Aug 09 posted by amanathilake, 22 Jul 09

  • [Updated] Advise....

  • Anything does not move much, has potential to move irrespective of company's performance.Since #BFL was around 17 sometimes back, there is a potential and technically ok to buy. Bu...
  • 2 replies, chathu 2 Jun 09 posted by chathu, 1 Jun 09

and in 481 replies...

  • [Updated] Why #BFL worth more ... reply from cse.see, 1 hour ago
  • MW has highlighted below points.....

    * They should be able to announce around EPS of seven in the coming quarters. It is possible they can make EPS around 9.

    * they are going to make impressive EPS together with the best balance sheets in their business life during next two financial years. Their balance sheet will become more and more strong in the mid term and long term.

    * We can learn lot of things from their next quarterly reposts as well.

    * For me BFL is value gem, growth gem, future cash cow and asset play.

    * It is more valuable than #WATA, #SOY, #SPEN, #AHUN now.

    * I always said it is not too high to buy and not too low to sell.

    * Coming quarters will be better than current quarters.

    * Now, I have to do more study and restudy on BFL to identify their new barriers and NEW psychological barrier.

    * Fortune G-P Farms (Lanka) Ltd. (FGPF), an associate company of Bairaha Farms PLC, a pioneer chicken producer in Sri Lanka, has exported US$ 22,000 worth of breeding chicks to Nepal this year, said the company in a press release.
    FGPF says it will supply another order for US$ 17,100 worth of chicks, to Nepal, in early September this year.

    * can expect good results in poultry group in the next quarter as well. Coming peak tourist season will add more value to #BFL.

    * #BFL is a very strong company with great growth potential.

    * Even number one-stockbroker Asia securities ARE recommending BFL as strong buy.

    * I think if BFL break Rs.180 barrier they also will go for stock split. Already they created Employees' Share Ownership Trust to buy BFL shares and they have purchased 2.8% so far. I think they will introduce share buy back programs in the future when they see rapid developments during next five years.

    * In advance, I said poultry would have good earnings in the current quarter. It is same in the next quarter as well. In addition, I said BFL would have attractive results in the next financial year. They will have best balance sheet in their business life next financial year EPS will become more than double. Expected ROE over 30.

    * Remember Asia securities is top broker in Sri-Lanka especially they are good in stock market and investment banking.
    They have just published a research report on #BFL. Why? Because they know when to buy correct stock at the correct time? It is very good boost for BFL.

    * There are all the sign for BFL to become more than 10baggars stocks in the future.

    * Now their current ratio and working capital is better than #WATA and #NEST.

    * BFL is massively undervalued stock in the current market with huge potential and growth.

    * I think policy makers have genuine interest to develop agri-business sector in Sri-Lanka. Due to their wise decision, we can see rapid development in maize and rice now. Now poultry farmers can buy maize locally.

    * Agri-Business sector will become backbone of the Sri-Lankan economy in the future. They are hoping to make self-sufficiency in maize within two years. BFL has limited operation in maize and they are hoping to make fully operation in the future.

    * What about their demand for their products, new markets, expansion and new developments including maize during next 10 months and next five years? Current year they have to increase their chick production by more than 15%.
    I said BFL will become more and more undervalued in the future and it is massively undervalued now. Remember BFL has one of the best current ratio and working capital positions.

    * BFL has improved dramatically in all fronts. (Higher ROE. Low debt, positive cash flow and working capital, higher earnings etc) I think as a leader in the group, that they are in a position to break many records during next 10 months and next five years.

    * #BFL is the clear winner, current leader, emerging leader and future leader in this group due to less debt, strong balance sheet, strong cash flow and future potential and new developments. BFL has all the characteristics of a hidden gem, value gem, growth gem, cash cow and asset play.

    * BFL has lowest debt when compare with WATA.

    * In the coming months we can see peak tourist season and there will be more demand for egg and chicken. Poultry group will benefit more and more. Therefore we can even expect over 30 EPS from BFL during next financial year.

    * Next quarter report high expectation because, According to latest data, tourist arrivals into Sri Lanka surged by 50 percent in July 2010 to 63,339 from a year ago as post-war optimism and removal of travel advisories encouraged visitors even during the off-season. Therefore, hotel, travel and poultry group will benefit mostly in the coming months due to peak season in hotel group. Expected tourist arrivals in 2010: around 600,000. It looks like it will increase to 700,000.

    * Their working capital and cash position has improved dramatically As you said, their debt has come down dramatically, Their assets, reserves and retained earnings have increased dramatically. They have better accounting and cost control systems. Otherwise, will they win awards for their accounts from institute of chartered accountants of Sri-Lanka constantly? I already said they would have one of the best and biggest achievements in their business life in the next financial year. They will achieve more in the future too.

    * An excellent year placed us as Sri-Lanka’s Largest and the leading producer of day old boiler chicks.
    BFL has new markets from north and east in addition to tourist market. They are in a position to export not only Cobb chicks but also chicken in the future. Their market is expanding and now they have to expand their production capacity faster than before. Now they have plan to implement and expand production including maize and chicks in the current year.

    * In short, BFL is a hidden gem, number one value gem; growth gem, future cash cow and asset play in the market.
    It is no longer a trading stock. It is an investment stock now. I repeatedly said it is number one Agri-Business stock in Sri-Lanka. BFL has great value and growth now. Unlike other stocks, it will go up due to attractive earnings in the future. It has value, new markets, strong balance sheet, future earnings and strong demand for their products. We are still in off peak tourist season.

    * I think BFL will achieve their long-term ambition and plan due to following:
    Strong Management with innovative ideas, Dedicated employees, Policy makers are taking genuine effort and action to develop Agri-Business sector in Sri-Lanka. This sector will become backbone of the economy in the future.Expected economic boom, tourism and development in North and East.

    * BFL will become one of the best bullish stocks in the CSE in the future.

    * Definitely, this is a real markets’ value gem now.

    * According to their annual report, they will have massive growth in their business and they are ready to expand and invest now.

    * It is true #BFL is fundamentally sound stock and it has attractive value and growth.

    * Based on their performance, annual report, recent quarterly report, future prospects, new markets, new developments and other bullish indicators, we have to upgrade BFL to the next level now.

    * They should be able to announce around EPS of seven in the coming quarters. It is possible they can make EPS around 9.

    * What about their demand for their products, new markets, expansion and new developments including maize during next 10 months and next five years?

    * Current year they have to increase their chick production by more than 15%.
    I said BFL will become more and more undervalued in the future and it is massively undervalued now.
    Remember BFL has one of the best current ratio and working capital positions.
    BFL has improved dramatically in all fronts. (Higher ROE. Low debt, positive cash flow and working capital, higher earnings etc)
    I think as a leader in the group, that they are in a position to break many records during next 10 months and next five years.
    From where can we find undervalued stock with growth potential/ strong balance sheet/ new market for their products./ value added products like BFL?

    * I think BFL will achieve their long-term ambition and plan due to following:
    Strong Management with innovative ideas
    Dedicated employees
    Policy makers are taking genuine effort and action to develop Agri-Business sector in Sri-Lanka. This sector will become backbone of the economy in the future.
    Expected economic boom, tourism and development in North and East

    * Can you name a stock to replace BFL now? I don’ think so. BFL is so strong now. When compare with above stocks BFL has great value and growth now.

    * The medium term and long-term story is very strong for BFL now. They have very rich valuations and growth story now.

    * BFL is the clear winner in the poultry group and will emerge as one of the emerging leaders in the CSE.

    * More tourists, more developments in the country means there will be strong demand for poultry products in the future. In addition, Agri-business sector will become backbone of the economy in the future.

    * EPS current financial year: around 8.5. EPS current in the current quarter: around 6.6

    * Only few intelligent players were able to identify true value of BFL.

    * Few Intelligent players already took action to rotate their other stocks including hotel, some banks, finance companies and plantations stocks into BFL now.

    * Still BFL is at their early stage of their growth.

    * Once we see coming quarterly results, balance sheets more analysts will write research reports on BFL next year.

    * Do you know even if BFL share prices become double still there will be attractive value on projected earnings and growth and strong balance sheet
  • [Updated] Why #BFL worth more ... reply from cse.see, 1 hour ago
  • #BFL last 04 Quarter earnings (growth) is below,
    30.06.2010 - 104.1 Mn
    31.03.2010 - 71.1 Mn
    31.12.2009 - 21.8 Mn
    30.09.2009 - 24.9 Mn
    Total - 222.0 Mn

    No of Shares = 16 Mn
    Market Capitalization = Share Price Rs.148/- x Nos 16 Mn = Rs.2,368 Mn.
    Currently trading PER = 2,368 / 222 = 10

    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
    MARKET PER = 22
    FOOD/BEVERAGE SECTOR PER = 17
    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

    Predictable Valuation 01 :
    MW is expecting more than 30 EPS for F/Year 2010/11.
    Then, Share Price = EPS 30 x PER 10 = Rs.300/-

    Predictable Valuation 02 :
    30.06.2010 EPS 6.51.
    Annualized = 6.51 x 4 = 26.04
    Then, Share Price = EPS 26 x PER 10 = Rs.260/-

    Predictable Valuation 03 :
    #BFL can go up MINIMUM 25.0 of EPS for 2010/11, with SECTOR PER 17.0
    Then, Share Price = EPS 25 x PER 17 = Rs.425/-

    #BFL is mostly undervalue. More possibly #BFL to break Rs.250/- mark with in next 03-04 months.
  • [Updated] Why #BFL worth more ... reply from MarketWatch, 2 hours ago
  • Still BFL is at their early stage of their growth.

    Once we see coming quarterly results, balance sheets more analysts will write research reports on BFL next year.

    Now #BFL can compare with companies such as HHL, #WATA, JKH, SPEN, AHUN, and NEST. BFL has some of the best financial ratios in addition to low debt. BFL is more attractive than above companies.

    We should take decision on fututer earnings, value and projected earning and growth etc now.

    It is number one Agri-Business stocks in Sri-Lanka. We cannot compare with other Agri-business stocks in the CSE. BFL is so strong now.

    As I expected it is already passed stock prices of #LMF, #SOY, #CIC,

    It will pass few remaining stock prices as well.

    Do you know even if BFL share prices become double still there will be attractive value on projected earnings and growth and strong balance sheet. Wata is trading around Rs.300 now.


    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Oooooops I did it ag... reply from MarketWatch, 2 hours ago
  • Hi Babycakes:

    Still BFL is at their early stage of their biggest growth.

    Once we see coming quarterly results, balance sheets more analysts will write research reports on BFL next year.

    Now #BFL can compare with companies such as HHL, #WATA, JKH, SPEN, AHUN, and NEST. BFL has some of the best financial ratios in addition to low debt. BFL is more attractive than above companies.

    We should take decision on fututer earnings, value and projected earning and growth etc now.

    It is number one Agri-Business stocks in Sri-Lanka. We cannot compare with other Agri-business stocks in the CSE. BFL is so strong now.

    As I expected it is already passed stock prices of #LMF, #SOY, #CIC,

    It will pass few remaining stock prices as well.

    Do you know even if BFL become double still there will be attractive value? Wata is trading around Rs.300 now.


    Good luck!
  • [Updated] The risk in #BFL and... reply from chinwi, 3 hours ago
  • If bird flue spread again it will be lucrative to Sri lanka.

    We have best chances to stay away from the virus because we are separated from mainland and there were no infection reported from migrating birds during last epidemics.

    In India and elsewhere the birds kept in very bad hygienic and ventilating conditions were destroyed by the virus.

    I think #BFL has taken best safety measures as possible to make their business away from such disasters.

    Somehow, I agree with you about safe margins we have to maintain .
  • [Updated] Sri Lanka poultry in... reply from MarketWatch, 1 day ago
  • BFL is at the initial stage of their major growth. We can see rapid developments in maize, rice and poultry industry in the coming years thanks to policy makers, maize farmers, rice farmers, dedicated employees, innovative mangers and new thinking in Agri-Business sector. Due to wise decisions taken by policy markers, we can see era of self sufficient in

    Maize, rice and poultry products sooner than later. Neglected areas such as UVA will become hub of maize market in the future.

    It will become best sector and backbone of the economy in the coming years. There will be lot of export opportunities in this area.

    One of the emerging leaders in the market #BFL will become more and stronger.

    BFL is the best value gem available in the market now. For me it is a value gem, growth gem, asset play and cash cow.

    On projected earnings and growth, it will become more undervalued.

    Factors to watch:
    Bairaha says increased tourist arrivals are now creating more demand for poultry and demand is also coming from the North and the East of the island, after the end of a war.
    "It took nearly 10 years for the Sri Lankan Poultry Industry to double its production and consumption, and now with the potential for massive growth, doubling production in a shorter period is not too far away, provided the consumption grows as expected," chairman M T A Furkhan told shareholders.
    Furkhan said finance secretary P B Jayasundera had said the industry should double output within five year given the projected increase in tourist arrivals and rising incomes.
    Bairaha sells chicken meat and also processed meat products. The firm said it had started distributing products in north and the east of Sri lanka and also participated in a trade fair in Jaffna in April.
    "We expect the Group’s production of day-old-chicks to increase by 15 percent this year, helping to strengthen and dominate its market position," Naleem said.
    "Also on the cards is the introduction of existing processed meat products in new packaging aimed at further improving and enhancing the brand status in the market."
    The firm said Fortune G-P Farms (Lanka) Ltd, a group firm had exported two consignments of Broiler parent chicks to Nepal. The unit was the largest of two broiler parent breeders in the island, the firm said.


    Based on their performance, annual report, recent quarterly report, future prospects, new markets, new developments and other bullish indicators, we have to upgrade BFL to the next level now. All my barriers will have to revise and will have to study their new tortoise pattern and barriers including new psychological barrier. Coming quarters will be better than current quarters. Even they are in a position report more than EPS of 30 next financial year. In addition, they will have ROE of more than 30. Only few companies such as #NEST, #LLUB will have above the ROE of 30 next year.

    BFL will have some of the best balance sheets in their business life during next two years.

    More news:

    BFL has included Amana Takapul (ATL) as their new bank in addition to their existing powerful Bank of Ceylon.

    If they want, they can take credit easily from Bank of Ceylon lower interest rate than other banks to expand their businesses now.

    Now they are in a position to make use of interest free credit from ATL according their Sharia Law. This type of credit is very popular in Malaysia among non-Muslims than Muslims.

    Future Direction

    The Group and the Company expect to minimize further their exposure to bank borrowing whilst at the same time reducing their exposure to other major creditors and thereby strengthen the Group’s and Company’s financial position to explore other business opportunities

    Do you know that they are continuously investing in new projects/

    The Company that is doing this project expects to introduce mechanized dryers, that it has imported, before the next Maha harvest and use the dryers for the maize to be purchased from the farmers as well as those that this Company expects to cultivate. The Company also plans to engage in the trading of maize to supply it to feed millers.

    They will set up of the large-scale broiler farm in the current year. They mentioned buying land for this project at their annual general meeting and they must have bought the land by now and must have started already.

    They are going to increased chicks production by more than 15% in the current year. They will have to increase more in the coming years.

    I think it is better to take decisions on projected earnings in the future now. We should rotate form weak balance sheets to strong balance sheets

    BFL will have strong balance sheets in the coming years.


    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Sri Lanka poultry in... reply from moneymoney, 1 day ago
  • #BFL looks a very prospective share.. even the export market expansion to nepal suggests that the company will do very well in the future.
  • [Updated] BFL fundamently soli... reply from MarketWatch, 2 days ago
  • It is true #BFL is fundamentally sound stock and it has attractive value and growth.

    It addition it has one of the best bullish patterns in the CSE. What about other extremely bullish indicators? Some looked at charts and sold around Rs.50 and around Rs.70. We cannot rely on charts for extremely bullish stocks with strong pattern.

    Some cannot identity some extremely bullish indicators in some stocks. I saw these bullish indicators in SPEN, KGAL, and WATA as well. That is the reason for me to be more bullish on some stocks time to time.

    Based on their performance, annual report, recent quarterly report, future prospects, new markets, new developments and other bullish indicators, we have to upgrade BFL to the next level now. All my barriers will have to revise and will have to study their new tortoise pattern and barriers including new psychological barrier. Coming quarters will be better than current quarters. Even they are in a position report more than EPS of 30 next financial year. In addition, they will have ROE of more than 30. Only few companies such as #NEST, #LLUB will have above the ROE of 30 next year.

    BFL will have some of the best balance sheets in their business life during next two years.

    More news:

    BFL has included Amana Takapul (ATL) as their new bank in addition to their existing powerful Bank of Ceylon.

    If they want, they can take easily can get credit from Bank of Ceylon to expand their businesses now.

    Now they are in a position to make use of interest free credit from ATL according their Sharia Law. This type of credit is very popular in Malaysia among non-Muslims than Muslims.

    Future Direction

    The Group and the Company expect to minimize further their exposure to bank borrowing whilst at the same time reducing their exposure to other major creditors and thereby strengthen the Group’s and Company’s financial position to explore other business opportunities

    Do you know that they are continuously investing in new projects/

    The Company that is doing this project expects to introduce mechanized dryers, that it has imported, before the next Maha harvest and use the dryers for the maize to be purchased from the farmers as well as those that this Company expects to cultivate. The Company also plans to engage in the trading of maize to supply it to feed millers.

    They will set up of the large-scale broiler farm in the current year. They mentioned buying land for this project at their annual general meeting and they must have bought the land by now and must have started already.

    They are going to increased chicks production by more than 15% in the current year. They will have to increase more in the coming years.

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iIgm_2QKqEmZ9kZezRhNwOZ_kjVQ

    Asia leads world tourism recovery in 2010: UN

    MADRID — World tourism rebounded strongly this year from the global financial crisis, led by Asia and the Middle East, the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) said Friday

    Asia in particular is experiencing a very dynamic rebound," it said, noting strong results in particular from Sri Lanka, Japan, Vietnam, Myanmar and Hong Kong.


    Above is for the first six months of 2010.

    We are going to have peak tourist season from now and Sri-Lanka will have one of the best tourist seasons during next nine months in addition YEAR OF VISIT SRI-LANKA.

    In short hotel, travel and food companies will have great growth. Remember hotel and food link to each other.

    Now BFL have to keep link with all the hotels in Sri-Lanka. What about new hotels, which are going to open in the near future?


    EPS, P/E only two factors. Then we have to be careful when we analyse ROE. BFL has clean ROE with less debt.

    We can identify more bullish factors from annual reports and quarterly results.

    They should be able to announce around EPS of seven in the coming quarters. It is possible they can make EPS around 9.

    However, we should not waste much time on their EPS now. We already know that they are going to make impressive EPS together with the best balance sheets in their business life during next two financial years. Their balance sheet will become more and stronger in the mid term and long term.

    We can learn lot of things from their next quarterly reposts as well. When I saw latest quarterly report, I could not believe improvements they have made in all fronts. That is the reason for me to become extremely bullish.
    Remember I have my own tortoise plus strategy and in plus I will look into more bullish factors.

    For me BFL is value gem, growth gem, future cash cow and asset play. It is more valuable than #WATA, #SOY, #SPEN, #AHUN now.

    22.08.2010

    Sri Lankan chicks going to Nepal
    Fortune G-P Farms (Lanka) Ltd. (FGPF), an associate company of Bairaha Farms PLC, a pioneer chicken producer in Sri Lanka, has exported US$ 22,000 worth of breeding chicks to Nepal this year, said the company in a press release.

    FGPF says it will supply another order for US$ 17,100 worth of chicks, to Nepal, in early September this year. Last year, the company exported two consignments of parent broiler breeder chicks to NepaL

    Even number one-stockbroker Asia securities ARE recommending BFL as strong buy. BFL will have their best balance sheets during next two years in their business life. It will become more strong time to come due to new developments.

    On the other hand, BFL is reducing their debt dramatically and now they are investing in maize project and going to invest in a larger boiler farm.

    I think policy makers have genuine interest to develop agri-business sector in Sri-Lanka. Due to their wise decision, we can see rapid development in maize and rice now. Now poultry farmers can buy maize locally.

    Next year they will have their best balance sheet in their business life.
    What about their demand for their products, new markets, expansion and new developments including maize during next 10 months and next five years?
    Current year they have to increase their chick production by more than 15%.
    I said BFL will become more and more undervalued in the future and it is massively undervalued now.
    Remember BFL has one of the best current ratio and working capital positions.

    BFL has improved dramatically in all fronts. (Higher ROE. Low debt, positive cash flow and working capital, higher earnings etc)

    I think as a leader in the group, that they are in a position to break many records during next 10 months and next five years.

    From where can we find undervalued stock with growth potential/ strong balance sheet/ new market for their products./ value added products like BFL?

    I think BFL will achieve their long-term ambition and plan due to following:
    Strong Management with innovative ideas
    Dedicated employees
    Policy makers are taking genuine effort and action to develop Agri-Business sector in Sri-Lanka. This sector will become backbone of the economy in the future.
    Expected economic boom, tourism and development in North and East

    This company has not issued any option to executives. Instead, already they created Employees' Share Ownership Trust fund to buy BFL shares and they have purchased 2.8% so far.

    I think company will introduce share buy back programs in the medium term and long term when they expand their business and when they generate more cash flow in the future.
    Recently some new six institutions have become major shareholders

    Can you name a stock to replace BFL now? I don’ think so. BFL is so strong now and they will become more and stronger in the future?

    •
    • This is how CSE..SEE look at #BFL as an Accountant.
    •
    • reply from cse.see, 19 hours ag
    #BFL last 04 Quarter earnings (growth) is below,
    30.06.2010 - 104.1 Mn
    31.03.2010 - 71.1 Mn
    31.12.2009 - 21.8 Mn
    30.09.2009 - 24.9 Mn
    Total - 222.0 Mn (means Last 04 quarter EPS = 13.88)
    No of Shares = 16 Mn
    Market Capitalization = Share Price Rs.129/- x Nos 16,000,000 = Rs.2,064,000,000 (2,064 Mn).
    Currently trading PER = 2,064 / 222 = 9.3

    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
    MARKET PER = 21.7
    FOOD/BEVERAGE SECTOR PER = 17.3
    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

    Predictable Valuation 01 :
    MW is expecting more than 30 EPS for F/Year 2010/11.
    Then, Share Price = EPS 30 x PER 9.3 = Rs.279/-

    Predictable Valuation 02 :
    30.06.2010 EPS 6.51.
    Annualized = 6.51 x 4 = 26.04
    Then, Share Price = EPS 26 x PER 9.3 = Rs.243/-

    Predictable Valuation 03 :
    #BFL can go up MINIMUM 25.0 of EPS for 2010/11, with SECTOR PER 17.0
    Then, Share Price = EPS 25 x PER 17 = Rs.425/-

    #BFL is mostly undervalue. More possibly #BFL to break Rs.250/- mark with in next 03-04 months.

    I do most of my analysis based on my own tortoise plus strategy. I mentioned short-term barrier Rs.120 and it already broke. Even I mentioned Rs.200 as barrier for #BFL. Their next most important barriers are Rs.180 and Rs.230/-

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Some of the Companie... reply from cse.see, 3 days ago
  • #BFL last 04 Quarter earnings (growth) is below,
    30.06.2010 - 104.1 Mn
    31.03.2010 - 71.1 Mn
    31.12.2009 - 21.8 Mn
    30.09.2009 - 24.9 Mn
    Total - 222.0 Mn (means Last 04 quarter EPS = 13.88)
    No of Shares = 16 Mn
    Market Capitalization = Share Price Rs.129/- x Nos 16,000,000 = Rs.2,064,000,000 (2,064 Mn).
    Currently trading PER = 2,064 / 222 = 9.3

    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
    MARKET PER = 21.7
    FOOD/BEVERAGE SECTOR PER = 17.3
    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

    Predictable Valuation 01 :
    MW is expecting more than 30 EPS for F/Year 2010/11.
    Then, Share Price = EPS 30 x PER 9.3 = Rs.279/-

    Predictable Valuation 02 :
    30.06.2010 EPS 6.51.
    Annualized = 6.51 x 4 = 26.04
    Then, Share Price = EPS 26 x PER 9.3 = Rs.243/-

    Predictable Valuation 03 :
    #BFL can go up MINIMUM 25.0 of EPS for 2010/11, with SECTOR PER 17.0
    Then, Share Price = EPS 25 x PER 17 = Rs.425/-

    #BFL is mostly undervalue. More possibaly #BFL to break Rs.250/- mark with in next 03-04 months.
  • [Updated] @ MW/CSE.SEE/Innam/C... reply from amjad, 3 days ago
  • I think #UML is OVER but hope to minimize the looses on Monday :)

    i agree as a newcomer going behind the crowd has taught me a valuable lesson. i have the following shares which were mentioned as undervalued and really had gains through. i have #BFL #LCEY .....

    as a matter of fact i have been very confused the market behaves bec last week of august when all stocks were down hotel and motor were on the up.when comparing it with this week i see plantations rally... funniest part is i had good amount of plantation stocks last month and sold it bec it doesn't increase and bought all other shares and then the opposite happens..
    i have now understood that plantations go up with tea prices going up or bec of good harvest

    it would be much appreciable if we as newcomers could get the more information on different sectors and what are seasons for it when to buy it and when to sell it not as a set rule but as a more sensible approach buying shares than just buying it .. eg like tea harvesting now what are the other seasonal influences plantations have.one thing i know is hotel having its peak season next few months. etc

    i also greatly appreciate this forum for what it has and is being doing.
  • [Updated] Some of the Companie... reply from MarketWatch, 3 days ago
  • In the current financial year nest has the highest around 89.

    Out of above companies’ #NEST, #BFL and #LLUB can report above the ROE of 30 during next financial year. We can expect dramatic improvements from #BFL during not only next two years but also nest five years in all fronts.

    Some of the above companies will have the best balance sheets, best quarterly reports in the coming quarters and years.

    On rich valuation, strong growth, expected higher ROE and EPS in the future, strong balance sheets in the future, BFL is massively undervalued. They have plenty of investment opportunity including maize project. Now they do not want to borrow much to expand their business because they can generate cash to invest and pay dividend in the future. They should not pay higher dividend now. Instead, they should invest for attractive opportunities ‘now. Shareholders will benefit in the medium term and long term.

    Some other plus points:

    Policy makers are more active than before to make self sufficient in poultry products and maize. Sometimes Uva province will become hub of maize market in the future. We can expect rapid development in neglected areas such as UVA including Buttala, Hamaantota, Trincomalee, Polonaruwa etc. More development means people will eat more and chicken and egg. There will be great demand for Agri Graduates. Agri-Business sector will be backbone of the economy.

    BFL will have less debt and they will reduce further in the coming years.
    They should start their one of the largest farms this year once they buy their land.( I think they must have bought their land already as they mentioned it on their annual general meeting)
    Maize project will start in the coming MAHA season
    Peak tourist season will make more work for BFL
    Now they have to well prepared for the most important event in Sri-Lanka

    YEAR OF VISIT 2011.

    I consider better than any other events. Then there will be world cup. There will be strong demand for value added products of BFL.

    #BFL is number one markets value gem, growth gem, asset play and cash cow. It is better than plantation stocks including #WATA now.

    Now their current ratio and working capital is better than #WATA and #NEST.

    Three outstanding companies in the market today.

    #WATA, #BFL and #NEST
    They are food and hot beverages oriented

    EPS in the current quarter
    #WATA EPS 6.18
    #NEST 7.73
    #BFL 6.51

    Remember BFL has the best current ratio and working capital position when compare with WATA and NEST.
    BFL has lowest debt when compare with WATA.
    In the coming months we can see peak tourist season and there will be more demand for egg and chicken. Poultry group will benefit more and more. Therefore, we can even expect over 30 EPS from BFL during next financial year.

    When compare with WATA and NEST #BFL is massively undervalued now.

    More details on BFL and poultry world later.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Who Will Benefit Fro... reply from MarketWatch, 3 days ago
  • http://www.fefac.org/file.pdf?FileID=209

    In a true sense, regarding who will benefit most from an expanding world supply of
    chicken, the answer is consumers who live in countries that continue to provide
    employment opportunities that generate raising incomes and have relatively free and fair
    trade for poultry, so that these consumers can more fully enjoy wholesome, quality
    chicken and chicken products at favorable economic values..

    Due to higher demand, there are shortages in chicken in many countries including Sri-Lanka with slight shortage.

    http://www.dailymirror.lk/print/index.php/business/127-local/2282.html

    According to Bairaha Farms Managing Director Yakooth Naleem, demand has outstripped supply

    Attributing the current slight shortfall to excessive demand, he went on to say: "It is impossible for the industry to keep up. Last month it was Christmas and now it is the elections. Hence, the consumption of chicken had tremendously increased. As a result of the price of fish being unstable, the public opts for the next most economical option, which is chicken.

    http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Regional/Lahore/13-Jan-2010/Egg-prices-fly-high
    Egg prices fly high

    Published: January 13, 2010
    LAHORE - With add to injury, now the egg is no more in the access of the poor, as egg prices have soared to record high of Rs 110 per dozen here in the provincial metropolis on Tuesday. Market dealers claimed that the prices shot up owing to the huge gap between supply and demand of the commodity.

    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/19302/rising-prices-blames-on-growing-strong-demand

    Rising Prices Blames on Growing Strong Demand

    INDIA - Strong demand is pushing up the prices of chicken and eggs more than usual during this winter.

    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/18431/chicken-egg-prices-up-on-hopes-of-demand

    Chicken, Egg Prices Up on Hopes of Demand
    TAMIL NADU, INDIA - Egg prices have increased 10 per cent in the past fortnight, while chicken prices have gone up by over 30 per cent during the same period on hopes of rise in demand

    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/19362/will-russias-increased-poultry-demand-be-met

    Will Russia’s Increased Poultry Demand Be Met?

    TURKEY - Following a recent decision by the Russian government to increase its poultry imports from Turkey to 500,000 tons annually, Turkish poultry producers have voiced concerns that the sector may not actually be able to meet this demand.
    http://www.worldpoultry.net/news/philippines-increase-in-poultry-demand-seen-in-2011-id4742.html

    Philippines: increase in poultry demand seen in 2011
    //11 Jan 2010
    Poultry is one of the growing sectors in Philippine agriculture with one company projecting an increase in demand by as much as 46 percent in 2011 compared to the demand in 2007.
    Even records from the Department of Agriculture (DA) showed that the poultry subsector registered a 3.46 percent output gain in 2009.

    http://www.worldpoultry.net/news/poultry-prices-skyrocket-in-nepal-id1663.html

    Poultry prices skyrocket in Nepal
    //27 Aug 2007
    The ban of parent chick imports into Nepal from countries suspected of bird-flu has triggered a shortage of chicken and eggs, resulting in a fresh price hike in poultry products.

    We are preparing to import chicks from Sri Lanka as bird-flu has not been detected there and flight schedule from there to Nepal is also convenient. But it will take time."

    http://agritrade.cta.int/en/Commodities/Poultry-sector

    Poultry sector

    Poultry trade and prices fairly stable despite global downturn

    There is broad agreement across all projections on the longer-term trends. Up to 2018 the meat sector is expected to continue to grow by an average of 1.9% per annum under the impact of population growth and increased income levels in developing countries. The poultry sector will experience by far the highest rates of growth in meat consumption – some 2.3%, compared to 1.8% for pork and sheep meat and 1.3% for beef

    By 2018 poultry meat will dominate meat consumption

    In short best managed poultry companies with synergy with top global poultry players will benefit most not only in the short run but also in the long run due to higher demand, increased consumption in the future.

    Bairah Farms #BFLin Sri-Lanka have synergy with USA based Cobb Van trees Global leader in Poultry (recently acquired by HYDRO B.V their former grandparent breeder chicks suppliers). Now BFL is in a position to supply the world’s most efficient broiler chicks Cobb not only to the local market but also to the export market

    More about #BFL and poultry later and in the coming years.
  • [Updated] Keep an eye on #BFL... reply from MarketWatch, 4 days ago
  • Now I have to revise all barriers for #BFL due to attractive rich value, growth, strong balance sheet and other important bull factors.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] Poultry or leasing ? reply from MarketWatch, 5 days ago
  • I always said we should go behind business that we know very well.
    If you are good in leasing you should go behind leasing stocks.
    In advanced I said there would be opportunity in leasing sector.
    Similarly, I saw great potential in poultry sector. BFL was my best choice and it is a number one tortoise plus stock available in the CSE.
    In short, I saw more potential in poultry group than leasing group.
    Remember people will always eat in good and bad times. In bad times, people will avoid leasing and credit.

    BFL is number on Food Company in Sri-Lanka now.

    More tourists, more developments in the country means there will be strong demand for poultry products in the future. In addition, Agri-business sector will become backbone of the economy in the future.

    In addition, we have to think about attractive value and growth potential in the current market.

    My tortoise plus stocks are not for short term trading, I

    Last year I mentioned stocks such as #SAMP, #DOCK, #LLUB and #AHUN as value gems and stock such as #BFL #HASU, #CHMX # DIPD, #MBSL and #NTB as hidden gems

    Even I mentioned stock such as #CFIN, #SPEN. #LFIN in advance. Now crowd is chasing those stocks. Therefore, we should go against the crowd now.
    Out of above stocks, my new markets’ value gem and growth gem is #BFL

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] #SEMB reply from chinwi, 5 days ago
  • @rm, I think we should write as calm as we can about currently heated issues.

    If you can do few calculations it is better. Just find how many shares will be floated XR amd XW .

    If I were you I may also buy #SEMB but I collect #HHL, #NTB, #LCEY, #BFL , #CFLB, #SEYB-X, #MAL, etc.

    I hope to enlighten you more before XR date.
  • [Updated] Short term growth an... reply from MarketWatch, 5 days ago
  • Some of the reasons for volatility in stock prices

    Crowd behaviour
    Group action
    Stock personality
    Short-term players and speculators
    Crowd psychology
    When some become bullish stocks prices will go down or stagnate in the short run. Eg: t happened last three days.
    When some become bearish, stock prices will go up.
    When some players become active and inactive specially I noticed in the plantation group and some other stocks. We should trade plantation, some finance and hotel stocks carefully now
    Now we should go against the crowd and should stay with future winners. We should have good idea about stock personality, crowd psychology etc in addition to fundamentals to select stock at the correct time at the correct price.
    Avoid stocks with right issues, warrants now unless you have very good idea about them. Otherwise, you will lose heavily. You should be able to analyse value of the stock due to new shares.
    Go behind simple business that you know very well.
    Remember some companies will become more and more undervalued in the future due to attractive earnings. .
    Market value gems, growth gems, cash cow and asset plays are the best.
    It is very simple.
    There should be strong demand for their products.
    Their earnings should be double or treble in the coming quarters and coming years when compare with corresponding last year
    They should be able to product strong balance sheets in the coming years.
    They should have bullish pattern and theme. Their intermediate trend and long-term trend should be strong.

    Remember I always said pullbacks are opportunity for intelligent players when stock is in major uptrend

    They should be massively undervalued when compare with other stocks in the market.

    They should be emerging leaders in the future.
    Avoid penny, hot stocks now. Go behind value gems.
    I like to go behind tortoise plus stocks. Under this, I will identify value gems, growth gems, asset play and cash cow time to time.

    #BFL is a tortoise plus stock. More details on BFL later.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Short term growth an... reply from pissa6666, 6 days ago
  • @smalik

    Sorry for being late for the same reason as chinwi.

    Some fundamentally sound shares identified early with clear analysis in this forum in the past are doing extremely well. Eg. #BFL, #LFIN, #LCEY, #RICH, #GRAN, #TAFL, #MAL, #PABC, #NTB, #JKH, #DFCC(there are many. These are only few which came to my mind.)

    I find great growth potential in the following stocks. Movement in prices may be triggered with the financials for QE30 Sept. 10. I have individually commented on them in the past too:

    #ACL, #MAL, #CERA, #LWL, #TILE, #NTB, #PABC, #BALA, #ACME, #LHL

    Do your own reasearch before decision. By fundamentals and future potential, I think these stocks are attractive at current prices.
  • [Updated] Time to go against t... reply from xmart, 6 days ago
  • agree...
    good time to collect some #BFL today..
    yesterday, we were able to pick up #LFIN around 166

    will see tomorrow..

    thanks MW for valuable consulting..
  • [Updated] Did you collect BFL ... reply from CFox, 6 days ago
  • #BFL could go down a little bit more during next few days. I think you will be able to collect more around 115~118 next week. I'm assuming this refering to MACD chart and money flow index for #BFL.
  • [Updated] TAFL down again .. reply from Rizan, 7 days ago
  • I think the #TAFL has doubled the price and rally is over. But #BFL is moving steadily. If you making a loss just hold on till next quarter results
  • [Updated] Its the end of the m... reply from smaldeniya, 7 days ago
  • try to grab some hotels
    #GHLL
    #KHL
    #MARA is still undervalued

    and
    #COLO
    #SMOT
    in vehicle sector is good buy too

    #BFL
    #GRAN
    in poultry sector

    #NTB
    #NDB
    #MBSL
    in banking sector is a good addition to portfolio

    my opinion is dont keep ur portfolio only for one sector it is safe to have a different stocks cuz one may go up when the other go down
  • [Updated] Its the end of the m... reply from fatwolf, 7 days ago
  • Well you can look at #BFL wich has very good potential. #DIST, #MAL, #SEMB and #LHL. Please note these are my preferances only. Please do your own studies as well as consultations from experts. And then the choice is all yours!

    Good Luck!
  • [Updated] #BFL reply from livestock, 7 days ago
  • Hi all. I know its early in the day to say, but #BFL has gone down to 126!!!!! Should i worry? Bought at 130. Whats happening?
  • [Updated] Stocks to watch now:... reply from chinwi, 7 days ago
  • Most of these stocks are becoming illiquid due to higher values. There will be measures to make them liquid and in addition to the potential for the growth in next few months share splits will also give holders big chances to increase wealth.

    Some stocks become overvalued time to time and we tend to sell. Again they become undervalued faster than we expect and this should continue with the upward movement of our economy at this new era.

    If we can select such shares we can trade wisely in the future. I think #AHUN , #SPEN, #NTB , #LCEY, #BFL etc fall into that category.


    Plantations : Today 31 August, the Sun positioned directly over Sri Lanka and normally this becomes a very hot and dry period. But this year, we have cool and rainy climate even in August. ( Max Temp 28 C in CMB ) This means the favourable weather is continuing for our plantations.
  • [Updated] Stocks to watch now:... reply from smaldeniya, 7 days ago
  • first of all i would like to thank you MarketWatch cuz of #BFL

    (after you had mentioned it and my own analyse i got some profit form it )

    do you have any though of #KHL sir?

    after it invest huge amount of money in hotels it owned in sri lanka to refurbish and it also start to building 140 room hotel and also after last weeks announcement and all other good things i think this is a something too
  • [Updated] Where will you put y... reply from MarketWatch, 7 days ago
  • Now we should pay attention to undervalued companies going to double their earnings in the next two years and next five years.

    In May, I said some stocks would appreciate more than 80%. These companies will appreciate further due to attractive value, growth and above average earnings in the future. Some companies will become more and more undervalued
    Out of above companies my best choice is #BFL according to my tortoise plus strategy now.

    Can anyone list new stocks according to your analysis?

    Thanks.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] #BFL reply from Rizan, 7 days ago
  • Today was a nice day for the collectors since month end I had my chance to collect more of #BFL. Hold on tight guyz it will hit high! Best return if you can hold till year end or beginning of next year wait and see since #BFL moving into new dimensions and like MarketWatch said best financial statements will come out in the future. I got hopes in the future.
    GOodLuck!!!
  • [Updated] LCEY Vs. BFL reply from chinwi, 7 days ago
  • If you consider risk factors and diversification I give better marks for #LCEY.

    With #BFL we are dealing 100% with living creatures.
    We saw millions of birds destroyed due to deceases.
    This may be a heavy factor in the minds of investors maintaining the #BFL price at this level at the moment.

    In contrast, I feel the same risk could give #BFL an unthinkable gain in the future.
    This is because we are living in an Island, separated from mainland. No bird flue reported here during its peaks in other countries.
    Chicken prices could reach very high if the decease spread again creating good export market. I think #BFL is gearing to increase the production continuously.

    In addition their cash strength is exceptional as described by others above.
  • [Updated] LCEY Vs. BFL reply from MarketWatch, 7 days ago
  • According to my tortoise plus strategy, I prefer #BFL to #LCEY. For me BFL is markets value gem, growth gem, asset play and cash cow.

    Few companies such as #BFL and #NEST have concentrated on their core business very well.

    Tortoise plus strategy is suitable for me. It is better than other technical and fundamental analysis. Tortoise means value and strong fundamentals. In plus we can study many factors, risks, pattern, bullish indicators and other important factors. I particularly like to see some extremely bullish pattern and indicators. I particularly saw some extremely bullish pattern in stocks such as #wata, #BFL #LFIN, #SPEN and #kgal in advance.

    #BFL is better than #SPEN, #AHUN and #WATA now.

    Similarly, players should take decisions according to their strategy, time horizon, risk level, experience, knowledge and skills. Some will like #lcey.
    Some companies are diversifying their businesses when they cannot generate income from their core business. In some period, some will earn higher income due to capital gain. When they diversify into business that they do not know, they will fail in the future. Then they will become deworsified companies.

    This is the time to rotate stocks, groups and sectors. Already few intelligent players took action to rotate stocks from plantation, few banking, finance and hotel stocks to stocks such as #CFIN and #BFL etc.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] LCEY Vs. BFL reply from cse.see, 7 days ago
  • #BFL - Below points very important :

    * They should be able to announce around EPS of seven in the coming quarters. It is possible they can make EPS around 9.

    * they are going to make impressive EPS together with the best balance sheets in their business life during next two financial years. Their balance sheet will become more and more strong in the mid term and long term.

    * We can learn lot of things from their next quarterly reposts as well.

    * For me BFL is value gem, growth gem, future cash cow and asset play.

    * It is more valuable than #WATA, #SOY, #SPEN, #AHUN now.

    * I always said it is not too high to buy and not too low to sell.

    * Coming quarters will be better than current quarters.

    * Now, I have to do more study and restudy on BFL to identify their new barriers and NEW psychological barrier.

    * Fortune G-P Farms (Lanka) Ltd. (FGPF), an associate company of Bairaha Farms PLC, a pioneer chicken producer in Sri Lanka, has exported US$ 22,000 worth of breeding chicks to Nepal this year, said the company in a press release.
    FGPF says it will supply another order for US$ 17,100 worth of chicks, to Nepal, in early September this year.

    * can expect good results in poultry group in the next quarter as well. Coming peak tourist season will add more value to #BFL.

    * #BFL is a very strong company with great growth potential.

    * Even number one-stockbroker Asia securities ARE recommending BFL as strong buy.

    * I think if BFL break Rs.180 barrier they also will go for stock split. Already they created Employees' Share Ownership Trust to buy BFL shares and they have purchased 2.8% so far. I think they will introduce share buy back programs in the future when they see rapid developments during next five years.

    * In advance, I said poultry would have good earnings in the current quarter. It is same in the next quarter as well. In addition, I said BFL would have attractive results in the next financial year. They will have best balance sheet in their business life next financial year EPS will become more than double. Expected ROE over 30.

    * Remember Asia securities is top broker in Sri-Lanka especially they are good in stock market and investment banking.
    They have just published a research report on #BFL. Why? Because they know when to buy correct stock at the correct time? It is very good boost for BFL.

    * There are all the sign for BFL to become more than 10baggars stocks in the future.

    * Now their current ratio and working capital is better than #WATA and #NEST.

    * BFL is massively undervalued stock in the current market with huge potential and growth.

    * I think policy makers have genuine interest to develop agri-business sector in Sri-Lanka. Due to their wise decision, we can see rapid development in maize and rice now. Now poultry farmers can buy maize locally.

    * Agri-Business sector will become backbone of the Sri-Lankan economy in the future. They are hoping to make self-sufficiency in maize within two years. BFL has limited operation in maize and they are hoping to make fully operation in the future.

    * What about their demand for their products, new markets, expansion and new developments including maize during next 10 months and next five years? Current year they have to increase their chick production by more than 15%.
    I said BFL will become more and more undervalued in the future and it is massively undervalued now. Remember BFL has one of the best current ratio and working capital positions.

    * BFL has improved dramatically in all fronts. (Higher ROE. Low debt, positive cash flow and working capital, higher earnings etc) I think as a leader in the group, that they are in a position to break many records during next 10 months and next five years.

    * #BFL is the clear winner, current leader, emerging leader and future leader in this group due to less debt, strong balance sheet, strong cash flow and future potential and new developments. BFL has all the characteristics of a hidden gem, value gem, growth gem, cash cow and asset play.

    * BFL has lowest debt when compare with WATA.

    * In the coming months we can see peak tourist season and there will be more demand for egg and chicken. Poultry group will benefit more and more. Therefore we can even expect over 30 EPS from BFL during next financial year.

    * Next quarter report high expectation because, According to latest data, tourist arrivals into Sri Lanka surged by 50 percent in July 2010 to 63,339 from a year ago as post-war optimism and removal of travel advisories encouraged visitors even during the off-season. Therefore, hotel, travel and poultry group will benefit mostly in the coming months due to peak season in hotel group. Expected tourist arrivals in 2010: around 600,000. It looks like it will increase to 700,000.

    * Their working capital and cash position has improved dramatically As you said, their debt has come down dramatically, Their assets, reserves and retained earnings have increased dramatically. They have better accounting and cost control systems. Otherwise, will they win awards for their accounts from institute of chartered accountants of Sri-Lanka constantly? I already said they would have one of the best and biggest achievements in their business life in the next financial year. They will achieve more in the future too.

    * An excellent year placed us as Sri-Lanka’s Largest and the leading producer of day old boiler chicks.
    BFL has new markets from north and east in addition to tourist market. They are in a position to export not only Cobb chicks but also chicken in the future. Their market is expanding and now they have to expand their production capacity faster than before. Now they have plan to implement and expand production including maize and chicks in the current year.

    * In short, BFL is a hidden gem, number one value gem; growth gem, future cash cow and asset play in the market.
    It is no longer a trading stock. It is an investment stock now. I repeatedly said it is number one Agri-Business stock in Sri-Lanka. BFL has great value and growth now. Unlike other stocks, it will go up due to attractive earnings in the future. It has value, new markets, strong balance sheet, future earnings and strong demand for their products. We are still in off peak tourist season.

    * I think BFL will achieve their long-term ambition and plan due to following:
    Strong Management with innovative ideas, Dedicated employees, Policy makers are taking genuine effort and action to develop Agri-Business sector in Sri-Lanka. This sector will become backbone of the economy in the future.Expected economic boom, tourism and development in North and East.

    * BFL will become one of the best bullish stocks in the CSE in the future.

    * Definitely, this is a real markets’ value gem now.

    * According to their annual report, they will have massive growth in their business and they are ready to expand and invest now.
  • [Updated] LCEY Vs. BFL reply from amjad, 7 days ago
  • at the moment both of these stocks are stagnate but rather both are gems if it was me i would prefer #BFL but in order to diversify my risks i would invest in #LCEY as well. and if you are watching the market carefully there is a interest in motor shares specially #UML is a hot sale...

    final decision is yours always study the market and buy don't take anothers word as it it,
  • [Updated] TAFL reply from MarketWatch, 8 days ago
  • #TAFL had some momentum rally recently. No stock will go straight up and down.

    #BFL is completely different stock now. It is a special stock. I heard not only Asia securities but also few more brokers are recommending it as a strong buy now. It is better than all the plantations stocks including #WATA now. Only few intelligent players were able to identify true value of BFL.

    It is not only a value gem but also a growth gem. Now it has become asset play and future cash cow as well.

    It is current leader, future leader and emerging leader in the group. BFL will become one of the emerging leaders in the CSE during next five years. They will have one of the best balance sheets in the coming years.

    Few Intelligent players already took action to rotate their other stocks including hotel, some banks, finance companies and plantations stocks into BFL now.

    This is the time to rotate stocks, groups and sectors.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] CSE – possible break... reply from MarketWatch, 8 days ago
  • @CSE.SEE

    Following are three important barriers for #BFL in addition to psychological barrier Rs.180/-

    Rs.31/-, Rs.54 and Rs.230/-

    Already it broke both Rs.31 barrier and Rs.54 barrier.

    When it broke Rs.31, I came bullish. When it broke Rs.54, I became more bullish.
    When it broke Rs.76/- I became more and more bullish.

    Rs.230 barrier is very crucial for #BFL. This will be very important barrier and if it breaks this barrier, it will go up further.

    When Dial was trading around Rs.5, I said barriers for dial as Rs.10. Later I posted next barriers as Rs.11 and Rs.12/-

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] CSE – possible break... reply from MarketWatch, 10 days ago
  • We can find number one and number two extremely bullish stocks from the above list.

    Few companies in the above list will generate attractive earnings in the coming weeks, coming months and coming years and will have best balance sheets in the coming years.

    Few companies in the above list will expand; invest continuously to take advantage in the future opportunities.

    Remember I gave my barriers for stocks such #DFCC and #COMB in advance. For #BFL I said medium and short-term barrier as Rs.200/-.
    Some of the barriers for BFL are: Rs.150/-, Rs.178/75, Rs.190, Rs.198.75, Rs.200/-, Rs.220 and Rs.243.75.

    My revised psychological barrier for BFL is Rs.180/- My revised medium and long term barrier is Rs.300/-

    One or two stocks in the above list had several bases (consolidations) at different times. In fact, there were some sorts of distribution in some bases. Some thought to exist at that point. They could not identify the continuous pivot points. Intelligent players took the advantage and accumulated intelligently.

    Even top traders including one or two institutional investor made a big mistake. One reentered again paying more. Globally even top players will sell their stock too early and will reenter again after seeing their mistakes.

    We should stay with future winning stocks
    Future earnings are more important than past earnings
    It is not too high to buy and not too low to sell
    Do not follow the crowd.
    Have a good rotation policy time to time.
    Just because stocks are going up, we are not right.
    Just because stocks are going down, we are not wrong.
    Market value gems with growth potential are the best.
    Do not panic and do not use credit or reduce your margin or credit.
    Only people with above average knowledge and skills will use credit wisely. Others will lose when broker want to settle loan.

    In addition to fundamentals, there is lot of things to learn. There are hidden bull indicators. Crowd psychology also will affect the market. When some becomes bullish, either stock will go down or will stagnate.

    Finally, coming rapid developments in ports, tourism, agriculture and infrastructure will create great opportunities for some hidden companies.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] BFL selling price??? reply from cse.see, 11 days ago
  • Valuation :
    Clearly we can see, now #BFL ready to earn more than 25.00 of EPS during F/Y-2010/11. Sometimes it may hit more than 30.00 or 32.00 levels.
    In this current market, #BFL to be traded minimum more than 10.00 of P/E.
    (But, remember current market Food & Beverage sector trading P/E is 17.3).
    So, we can predict minimum share price = 25 x 10 = Rs.250/- level.
    (Or either = 30 x 10 = Rs.300/-).
    (If, you look with Sector PE, it is a massive value = EPS 25 x PE 17 = Rs.425/-).
    Very clear #BFL is massively undervalue.
    My short term target (03 months by 27.11.2010) for #BFL is Rs.243/-.
  • [Updated] Is #TAFL overvalued ... reply from Cashcow, 11 days ago
  • @PGCR
    I Agree... I have posted separate post regarding this. I think it is also overvalued compared to #BFL and #GRAN. Do nt pay more than 35 for the TAFL at the moment. of course it will go up in future. No doubt
  • [Updated] Chicken Run reply from cse.see, 11 days ago
  • Below points to be highlight :

    * They should be able to announce around EPS of seven in the coming quarters. It is possible they can make EPS around 9.

    * they are going to make impressive EPS together with the best balance sheets in their business life during next two financial years. Their balance sheet will become more and more strong in the mid term and long term.

    * We can learn lot of things from their next quarterly reposts as well.

    * For me BFL is value gem, growth gem, future cash cow and asset play.

    * It is more valuable than #WATA, #SOY, #SPEN, #AHUN now.

    * I always said it is not too high to buy and not too low to sell.

    * Coming quarters will be better than current quarters.

    * Now, I have to do more study and restudy on BFL to identify their new barriers and NEW psychological barrier.

    * Fortune G-P Farms (Lanka) Ltd. (FGPF), an associate company of Bairaha Farms PLC, a pioneer chicken producer in Sri Lanka, has exported US$ 22,000 worth of breeding chicks to Nepal this year, said the company in a press release.
    FGPF says it will supply another order for US$ 17,100 worth of chicks, to Nepal, in early September this year.

    * can expect good results in poultry group in the next quarter as well. Coming peak tourist season will add more value to #BFL.

    * #BFL is a very strong company with great growth potential.

    * Even number one-stockbroker Asia securities ARE recommending BFL as strong buy.

    * I think if BFL break Rs.180 barrier they also will go for stock split. Already they created Employees' Share Ownership Trust to buy BFL shares and they have purchased 2.8% so far. I think they will introduce share buy back programs in the future when they see rapid developments during next five years.

    * In advance, I said poultry would have good earnings in the current quarter. It is same in the next quarter as well. In addition, I said BFL would have attractive results in the next financial year. They will have best balance sheet in their business life next financial year EPS will become more than double. Expected ROE over 30.

    * Remember Asia securities is top broker in Sri-Lanka especially they are good in stock market and investment banking.
    They have just published a research report on #BFL. Why? Because they know when to buy correct stock at the correct time? It is very good boost for BFL.

    * There are all the sign for BFL to become more than 10baggars stocks in the future.

    * Now their current ratio and working capital is better than #WATA and #NEST.

    * BFL is massively undervalued stock in the current market with huge potential and growth.

    * I think policy makers have genuine interest to develop agri-business sector in Sri-Lanka. Due to their wise decision, we can see rapid development in maize and rice now. Now poultry farmers can buy maize locally.

    * Agri-Business sector will become backbone of the Sri-Lankan economy in the future. They are hoping to make self-sufficiency in maize within two years. BFL has limited operation in maize and they are hoping to make fully operation in the future.

    * What about their demand for their products, new markets, expansion and new developments including maize during next 10 months and next five years? Current year they have to increase their chick production by more than 15%.
    I said BFL will become more and more undervalued in the future and it is massively undervalued now. Remember BFL has one of the best current ratio and working capital positions.

    * BFL has improved dramatically in all fronts. (Higher ROE. Low debt, positive cash flow and working capital, higher earnings etc) I think as a leader in the group, that they are in a position to break many records during next 10 months and next five years.

    * #BFL is the clear winner, current leader, emerging leader and future leader in this group due to less debt, strong balance sheet, strong cash flow and future potential and new developments. BFL has all the characteristics of a hidden gem, value gem, growth gem, cash cow and asset play.

    * BFL has lowest debt when compare with WATA.

    * In the coming months we can see peak tourist season and there will be more demand for egg and chicken. Poultry group will benefit more and more. Therefore we can even expect over 30 EPS from BFL during next financial year.

    * Next quarter report high expectation because, According to latest data, tourist arrivals into Sri Lanka surged by 50 percent in July 2010 to 63,339 from a year ago as post-war optimism and removal of travel advisories encouraged visitors even during the off-season. Therefore, hotel, travel and poultry group will benefit mostly in the coming months due to peak season in hotel group. Expected tourist arrivals in 2010: around 600,000. It looks like it will increase to 700,000.

    * Their working capital and cash position has improved dramatically As you said, their debt has come down dramatically, Their assets, reserves and retained earnings have increased dramatically. They have better accounting and cost control systems. Otherwise, will they win awards for their accounts from institute of chartered accountants of Sri-Lanka constantly? I already said they would have one of the best and biggest achievements in their business life in the next financial year. They will achieve more in the future too.

    * An excellent year placed us as Sri-Lanka’s Largest and the leading producer of day old boiler chicks.
    BFL has new markets from north and east in addition to tourist market. They are in a position to export not only Cobb chicks but also chicken in the future. Their market is expanding and now they have to expand their production capacity faster than before. Now they have plan to implement and expand production including maize and chicks in the current year.

    * In short, BFL is a hidden gem, number one value gem; growth gem, future cash cow and asset play in the market.
    It is no longer a trading stock. It is an investment stock now. I repeatedly said it is number one Agri-Business stock in Sri-Lanka. BFL has great value and growth now. Unlike other stocks, it will go up due to attractive earnings in the future. It has value, new markets, strong balance sheet, future earnings and strong demand for their products. We are still in off peak tourist season.

    * I think BFL will achieve their long-term ambition and plan due to following:
    Strong Management with innovative ideas, Dedicated employees, Policy makers are taking genuine effort and action to develop Agri-Business sector in Sri-Lanka. This sector will become backbone of the economy in the future.Expected economic boom, tourism and development in North and East.

    * BFL will become one of the best bullish stocks in the CSE in the future.

    * Definitely, this is a real markets’ value gem now.

    * According to their annual report, they will have massive growth in their business and they are ready to expand and invest now.
  • [Updated] Against price band i... reply from Cashcow, 12 days ago
  • From the first day itself i am totally agree with the Price band but i still think it should be increase up to 15%.
    Advantages
    1. we can reduce the risk by watching the tread of the shares (#BLUE, # DPL, #GREG) and also increase the profit (eg:- #BFL, #TAFL, #CARS, #SPEN, #AHUN, #CINV, #GUAR)
    2. We can also participate and take profit from sudden share price fluctuations (eg: Split time), see the #SEMB, I bought large amount of the shares thanks for the price band otherwise so called investment advisers are plying the game and they only collected the shares to people who they know well. ( for their friends and relatives… you know what I am talking : )]
    3. Can see the good shares because of the price band (I agree that we need to study hard to pick the best out of all). Most of good shares do not have “Sellers”. That indicates you need to study the shares properly. You have full "night" for that because of the price band
    4. When you are doing another job and Stock market is your "Secondary income source”. The price band is excellent cos we cant stick to the market everyday but when you come home and can study the market behavior properly : )
  • [Updated] Need Prediction abo... reply from Ananthara, 12 days ago
  • Dear Sampath,

    #BFL's Annualized EPS will be Rs.24.Sector PE ratio 20.Now u can imagine what is intrinsic value of the share. If you have #BFL, Keep it till it touch Rs.200.If u dont have, collect it below Rs.150.and earn good profit.

    Dont forget to celebarate it with us.

    Happy Investment
  • [Updated] Time to invest in ag... reply from cse.see, 12 days ago
  • As MW said “Coming quarters will be better than current quarters”.
    This is very important point.
    Now, almost 02 months over for this current quarter. (July’2010 & August’2010).

    Last 06 Quarters, growth is below.
    30.06.2010 - 104.1 Mn (EPS 6.50)
    31.03.2010 - 71.1 Mn (EPS 4.44)
    31.12.2009 - 21.8 Mn
    30.09.2009 - 24.9 Mn
    30.06.2009 - 12.5 Mn
    31.03.2009 - 10.2 Mn

    Some people are predicting more than EPS 9.00 for this current quarter. That means they are expecting more than Rs.144 Mn profit for this quarter.
    We all know,
    1. Now tourist season is started.
    2. Tourist arrival day by day going up.
    3. #BFL got more orders to Export their products.
    4. North + East expansions are going on.

    Dear MW,
    Do you think, is possible #BFL to announce more than 9.00 of EPS for the current quarter…?
  • [Updated] Why #BFL worth more ... reply from cse.see, 13 days ago
  • We can see high demand for #BFL.
    Can you remember last year when Haycarb was Rs.57/- level, they announced massive profits + growth, then the finally #HAYC hit to Rs.220/- level.
    This year, #BFL announced high Profits + Growth.
    Now, time for #BFL.
  • [Updated] Will #BFL go above t... reply from NYMEX, 14 days ago
  • #TAFL seems to follow #BFL - or in other words gems in the same industry showing lot of potential. #TAFL broke the 25 resistant point my next target is 32 . lets see
  • [Updated] Undervalue stocks in... reply from MarketWatch, 16 days ago
  • Hi Invest77
    I did not mention #TAFL as value gem. Only I saw some trend for TAFL,
    Only #BFL is value gem, growth gem, asset play and cash cow for me.

    However, I said there would be some improvements in this quarter even for TAFL and GRAN. We can expect good results in poultry group in the next quarter as well. Coming peak tourist season will add more value to #BFL


    We cannot compare TAFL with BFL now. #BFL is a very strong company with great growth potential.

    Even number one-stockbroker Asia securities ARE recommending BFL as strong buy. BFL will have their best balance sheets during next two years in their business life. It will become more strong time to come due to new developments.

    Remember 21 days ago, when I saw some indicators I mentioned three stocks to watch: BFL, GRAN and TAFL
    .Following is the list mentioned buy CSE.SEE
    reply from cse.see, 2 days ago

    If you predict short term, 03 months (by 15th November’2010) following shares will give you a clear return.

    BFL possible to break Rs.140/- (minimum Rs.142/-) may be Rs.168/-
    GRAN possible to break Rs.50/-
    TAFL possible to break Rs.27/-
    HAYC possible to break Rs.194/-
    CIC.N possible to break Rs.108/-
    DIST possible to break Rs.168/-
    DIAL possible to break Rs.12.75/-
    SEYB possible to break Rs.92/-
    MBSL possible to break Rs.38.25/-
    BREW possible to break Rs.304/-
    LION possible to break Rs.174/-
    LCEY possible to break Rs.154/-
    HAYL possible to break Rs.342/-
    HHL possible to break Rs.44/-
    RICH possible to break Rs.140/-
    TKYO possible to break Rs.46/-
    BALA possible to break Rs.52/-
    MAL possible to break Rs.84/-
    LFIN possible to break Rs.169



    One or two stocks in the above list can go up gradually and systematically in the coming weeks braking their psychological barriers and new barriers.

    I think if BFL break Rs.180 barrier they also will go for stock split.

    Already they created Employees' Share Ownership Trust to buy BFL shares and they have purchased 2.8% so far. I think they will introduce share buy back programs in the future when they see rapid developments during next five years.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] 2nd Phase of StockMa... reply from MarketWatch, 16 days ago
  • Hi Roshara,
    Due to my tortoise plus approach to the market, I will not target short-term gain and non tortoise stocks .
    In addition, markets are unpredictable in the short run. We should follow considerable period to identify bullish stocks.
    Remember 21 days ago, when I saw some indicators I mentioned three stocks to watch: BFL, GRAN and TAFL
    Some momentum stocks such as ACAP, RHTL and CHOT can go up little bit more. However, I do not know their true value and I have not followed them much.
    Finally, I have limited my operation to few extremely bullish massively undervalued stocks.
    Following is the list mentioned buy CSE.SEE
    reply from cse.see, 2 days ago

    If you predict short term, 03 months (by 15th November’2010) following shares will give you a clear return.

    #BFL possible to break Rs.140/- (minimum Rs.142/-) may be Rs.168/-
    #GRAN possible to break Rs.50/-
    #TAFL possible to break Rs.27/-
    #HAYC possible to break Rs.194/-
    #CIC.N possible to break Rs.108/-
    #DIST possible to break Rs.168/-
    #DIAL possible to break Rs.12.75/-
    #SEYB possible to break Rs.92/-
    #MBSL possible to break Rs.38.25/-
    #BREW possible to break Rs.304/-
    #LION possible to break Rs.174/-
    #LCEY possible to break Rs.154/-
    #HAYL possible to break Rs.342/-
    #HHL possible to break Rs.44/-
    #RICH possible to break Rs.140/-
    #TKYO possible to break Rs.46/-
    #BALA possible to break Rs.52/-
    #MAL possible to break Rs.84/-
    #LFIN possible to break Rs.169

    One or two stocks in the above list can go up gradually and systematically in the coming weeks braking their psychological barriers and new barriers.
    Good luck!
  • [Updated] #BFL - Buy Recomende... reply from shaikanwar, 17 days ago
  • #priyanke
    You missed a valuable point. #BFL produces Halal chicken. This means nothing in their normal market but a great deal to the Muslim consumers here and overseas. Everything looks rosy to #BFL because the government controls that led to importing poultry from Brazil is not sustainable for too long plus its more than likely BFL will be exporting to the Middle-east pretty soon.
  • [Updated] #BFL - Buy Recomende... reply from cse.see, 17 days ago
  • What happen to the #BFL last 02 weeks?
    * * * * * * * * * * * *
    Week 09 to 13th Aug’2010:

    09.08.2010 (Mon) – High 65.10, Low 62.50, Trade Volume 29,700, Turnover 1,897,980/- (Av.63.90)
    10.08.2010 (Tue) – High 71.50, Low 63.00, Trade Volume 35,100, Turnover 2,391,880/- (Av.68.14)
    30.06.2010 Accounts published on 10.08.2010….
    11.08.2010 (Wed) – High 78.60, Low 76.50, Trade Volume 448400, Turnover 35,097,840/- (Av.78.27)
    12.08.2010 (Thu) – High 86.40, Low 82.90, Trade Volume 89000, Turnover 7,658,410/- (Av.86.04)
    13.08.2010 (Fri) – High 95.00, Low 95.00, Trade Volume 29200, Turnover 2,774,000/- (Av.95.00)

    Weekly summary
    High = Rs.95.00
    Low = Rs.62.50
    Share Price Change = Rs.26.00 (37.68%)
    Trade Volume = Shares 631,400
    Turnover = Rs.49,820,110/-
    No of Trades = 469
    Average Trading Share Price = Rs.78.90
    Average Buying Qty per person = Shares 1300

    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
    Week 16 to 20th Aug’2010:

    16.08.2010 (Mon) – High 104.50, Low 96.20, Trade Volume 433,400, Turnover 43,759,200/- (Av.100.96)
    17.08.2010 (Tue) – High 103.00, Low 91.40, Trade Volume 105,400, Turnover 9,957,630/- (Av.94.47)
    18.08.2010 (Wed) – High 98.90, Low 92.00, Trade Volume 165,100, Turnover 15,690,450/- (Av.95.03)
    19.08.2010 (Thu) – High 98.90, Low 95.00, Trade Volume 67,900, Turnover 6,549,030/- (Av.96.45)
    20.08.2010 (Fri) – High 101.90, Low 98.00, Trade Volume 75,400, Turnover 7,496,460/- (Av.99.42)

    Weekly summary
    High = Rs.104.50
    Low = Rs.91.40
    Share Price Change = Rs.5.00(5.26%)
    Trade Volume = Shares 847,200
    Turnover = Rs.83,452,770/-
    No of Trades = 916
    Average Trading Share Price = Rs.98.50
    Average Buying Qty per person = Shares 924

    * * * * * * * * * *
    Monitor :
    * Average Share price day by day going up.
    * After published the 30.06.2010 financial statement, No of shares 1,413,800 changing hands.
    * Total issued Shares 16,000,000 (16 Mn). CDS lodged QTY is 7,237,751 (7.2 Mn).
    * Directors holding share Qty 7,532,669. Then others were having 8,467,331.
    * Major 20 share holders having 12,206,935 shares. Then others were having 3,793,065
    * Fairly we can assume free float shares very minimum in the market. My assumption is 4 to 5 Mn around.
    * You can see last 02 weeks 1.4 Mn shares traded. My assumption if another 1.5 Mn traded in this level (around Rs.100/-) time for #BFL to moving up.
  • [Updated] #GRAN & #TAFL reply from MarketWatch, 17 days ago
  • HI CSE See,

    Now I have to recalculate and restudy the pattern for #BFL to identify their new psychological barrier, new barriers etc due to new developments, attractive results and projected attractive EPS, strong and best balance sheet in their business life and some other extremely bullish factors.

    Remember everybody will look for EPS in annual reports and quarterly reports. However, we can learn more than that from these reports.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] #GRAN & #TAFL reply from cse.see, 18 days ago
  • posted by MarketWatch, 21 days ago
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    Keep an eye on #BFL, #GRAN and #TAFL!
    Following are their psychological barriers:
    #BFL Rs.120/-
    #GRAN Rs.50/-
    #TAFL Rs.25/-

    #BFL is number one value gem in the market.
    P/E ration around 8
    ROE around 25
    Market P/E around 20
    Demand for their products strong
    New developments

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] #BFL - Buy Recomende... reply from MarketWatch, 18 days ago
  • HI CSE See,

    ON #BFL

    According to Asia research report what is the main reason to recommend this stock?

    Can you explain more about their approach to company and their analysis?

    It is good to see one of the top research houses is recommending BFL as strong buy in the current market.

    However, it is very simple. Their EPS going to be double during next financial year. We can see their more and more involvement in maize.

    They will have their best balance sheet during thier business life next financial year.

    More than EPS, we can get many bull factors from quarterly reports and annual reports.

    Can you remember I became bullish when it passed Rs.54/-.Araound Rs.76 I became extremely bullish after seeing their performance, annual reports and quarterly results. According to my tortoise plus strategy this can be describes as tortoise plus stock. It is very difficult identity these types of undervalued tortoise plus bullish stocks .

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Undervalued Stocks reply from cse.see, 19 days ago
  • If you predict short term 03 months (by 15th November’2010) following shares will give you a clear return.

    #BFL possible to break Rs.140/- (minimum Rs.142/-) may be Rs.168/-
    #GRAN possible to break Rs.50/-
    #TAFL possible to break Rs.27/-
    #HAYC possible to break Rs.194/-
    #CIC.N possible to break Rs.108/-
    #DIST possible to break Rs.168/-
    #DIAL possible to break Rs.12.75/-
    #SEYB possible to break Rs.92/-
    #MBSL possible to break Rs.38.25/-
    #BREW possible to break Rs.304/-
    #LION possible to break Rs.174/-
    #LCEY possible to break Rs.154/-
    #HAYL possible to break Rs.342/-
    #HHL possible to break Rs.44/-
    #RICH possible to break Rs.140/-
    #TKYO possible to break Rs.46/-
    #BALA possible to break Rs.52/-
    #MAL possible to break Rs.84/-
    #LFIN possible to break Rs.169/-

    Above list, all shares fundamentally very strong.
    * REMEMBER : Always buy STRONG shares.
  • [Updated] #GRAN – Grain Elevat... reply from cse.see, 19 days ago
  • One reason may be demand for chicken. because of #BFL announced massive results, then crowd know the value, then they follow this.
    Other may be #TAFL now turn back to profitabal line.
    Another reason compaire to GRAIN, TAFL share quantity is very low.
    I predict, in short run #TAFL possibal to break Rs.27.60 in comming week.
  • [Updated] #BFL today is XD day... reply from sampath2009, 19 days ago
  • @ VPWVPW,

    You are wrong , XD is short for Ex-dividend so in the case of #BFL the dividend will not be payed out to anyone who buys the stock after TODAY.
  • [Updated] LCEY reply from Mohan, 19 days ago
  • Most Under valued shares

    #LCEYs
    #BFL
    #TAFL
    #LFIN
    #MAL

    Unser valued share

    #LION
    #MULL
    #GRAN
    #ABAN
    #CWM
  • [Updated] Next the most import... reply from MarketWatch, 20 days ago
  • Recently I mentioned new psychological barrier for #spen Rs.2000. Today it broke.

    Today market broke 5400 barrier as well. As I said, next the most important barrier for market is 5500.

    We have to restudy new barriers including new psychological barrier for #BFL now.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] BFL going to settle ... reply from cse.see, 20 days ago
  • In my list, Undervalued shares below,
    Mostly:
    #BFL
    #MAL
    #GRAN
    #TAFL
    #LCEY
    #BALA

    Others:
    #HAYC
    #RICH
    #TKYO
    #SEYB
    #SAMP
    #COMB
  • [Updated] BFL going to settle ... reply from cse.see, 20 days ago
  • Point 01 :
    Look at the #BFL last 02 quarter results
    30.06.2010 = 104.1 Mn *(#BFL history highest earnings)
    31.03.2010 = 71.1 Mn
    Totals 01.01.2010 to 30.06.2010 = 175.2 Mn
    Total Shares = 16 Mn
    EPS for year 2010 1st 06 months = 175.2 / 16 = 10.95
    Then Annualize EPS for 2010 = 10.95 x 2 = 21.9
    Clear its EPS more than 20 now.

    Point 02 :
    Look at the #BFL last 01st quarter results for 2010/11
    30.06.2010 = 104.1 Mn
    EPS for F/Y 2010/11 1st Quarter = 104.1 / 16 = 6.51
    Then Annualize EPS for 2010/11 = 6.51 x 4 = 26.04
    Again, clear its EPS more than 25 now.

    Point 03 :
    Currently(17.08.2010 @ 2 pm) = Rs.94.00
    Then,
    Today trading P/E (with above point 1) = 94 / 21.9 = 4.29 ….. Can believable?
    Today trading P/E (with above point 2) = 94 / 26.04 = 3.60 ….. Can believable?

    Point 04 :
    Market P/E ratio = 21.79
    Food & Beverage sector P/E = 17.40

    Point 05 :
    After published the 31.03.2010 (Year ended 2009/10) Accounts - #BFL valuation
    Profits as at year ended 31.03.2010 = 134.1 Mn
    EPS = 8.38
    After published the accounts Adjusted share price = Max. Rs.75.50 (can say Rs.72/-)
    Then P/E = 72 / 8.38 = 8.59
    Very Clear, Current market #BFL trading P/E is = 9.0
    (This is Under ratio if you compared to above Point 04)

    Point 06 :
    Revised valuation for #BFL
    If you go with above Point 01 = EPS 20 x PE 9 = Rs.180/-
    If you go with above Point 02 = EPS 25 x PE 9 = Rs.225/-
    #BFL to break Rs.200/-.

    Point 07 :
    See below, Capital Trust Research said on Today (copied from their daily mail)…

    "Many brokers fully confident of the great appreciation potential of the ‘popular stocks’ have discovered a new strategy. They come to the market at the pre-open and place modest sell orders for popular stocks at 10% below the previous close compelling retailers to panic and sell at this level and they collect large quantities for big operators with considerable ‘holding power’. This strategy may continue till they encounter what we call a Bear Squeeze. That is when a majority of bargain hunters feel that ‘enough is enough’ and start buying these popular shares’ vigorously prices up despite the continued selling by a minority. That is when the ‘Next Bull Run’ on the popular stocks should start. This time it will happen with a hitherto unseen level of vigour and momentum because of the highly oversold status of almost all of these popular counters. This will be an excellent case study in ‘market dynamics’ for financial market dynamics and behavioral finance researchers"
  • [Updated] #BFL reply from Rizan, 21 days ago
  • Dont worry guyz i collected more of #BFL same day but at low when i saw selling pressure. Since the share is worth Rs.230 and above at the end of year. According to MW short term barrier is Rs.120 be patient. I am holding till next year double and triple profits surely and peaceful time i got without panics.
  • [Updated] Bears attacking to B... reply from sampath2009, 22 days ago
  • #BFL is number one stock. No doubt. Collect more and hold it ! Cheers !

    Cse.see where are you ?
  • [Updated] #STAF reply from smalik, 22 days ago
  • fairshare

    I too invested over 60% on hotel sector mainly on KHL which did not pay off highly. Now after the advise i got from such as MW,chinwi,DoctorJV and cse.see and many others, i realize and prefer to have more diversified portfolio.

    Right now i hold #RHTL, #Reef and #Khl as hotels and #Semb and #Atl for banking

    I was also able to collect a few of #NHL and #BFL and a few other stocks related to plantation and ect, etc, as well. So hopefully my move to a diversified portfolio would pay off since I'm more of a short term to mid term investor.

    since your a long term investor, I'm sure your portfolio would show BIG GREEN in future ( if it's not already :) )

    Cheers.
  • [Updated] #BFL Going Down... reply from Opportune, 22 days ago
  • Hey don't loose faith...hold onto those shares you own. #BFL is a definite BUY for the long term....Make use of todays low price of BFL to collect more of BFL!!!

    Read the post below;
    http://investnow.lk/2010/08/15/under-valued-share-bfl/3329/
  • [Updated] #BFL reply from lblankfein, 22 days ago
  • if you are so sure, I think you can put all money into #BFL, and if you put 50mn you can get out with 5mn profits (of course you have to deduct broker fees).
  • [Updated] Under valued share #... reply from MarketWatch, 22 days ago
  • Three outstanding companies in the market today.

    WATA, BFL and NEST

    They are food and hot beverages oriented

    EPS in the current quarter

    #WATA EPS 6.18
    #NEST 7.73
    #BFL 6.51

    Remember BFL has the best current ratio and working capital position when compare with WATA and NEST.

    BFL has lowest debt when compare with WATA

    In the coming months we can see peak tourist season and there will be more demand for egg and chicken. Poultry group will benefit more and more. Therefore we can even expect over 30 EPS from BFL during next financial year.

    http://www.accountancy.com.pk/articles_students.asp?id=77

    The importance of working capital

    Many organizations that are profitable on paper are forced to cease trading due to an inability to meet short-term debts when they fall due. In order to remain in business it is essential that an organization successfully manage its working capital. Too often however, this is an area, which is ignored
    http://www.ehow.com/about_6390769_debt-versus-equity-issue-important_.html

    Why Is the Debt Versus Equity Issue So Important?

    A company's debt-to-equity ratio indicates its potential to stay in business.
    The debt-to-equity ratio of a company speaks volumes about its riskiness. they're more likely to remain in business and are likely to have better access to equity and debt markets for growth.

    High debt levels can reduce the profitability of a business. Unlike equity, which is paid only when the company is profitable, debt holders are entitled to consistent payments of interest at defined interest rates . Consequently, high debt levels will compel a company to devote significant amounts of money to paying interest expenses. Absent the debt, the money could be used to pay dividends to shareholders or for expansion of the business.

    Access to Capital Markets
    1.
    Extremely high levels of debt can make it difficult to attract additional investors or to receive new loans. When debt levels are high enough that they make the risk of default on future loans too high, banks will become less likely to loan money and will increase required interest rates. Similarly, increases in risk that result from high levels of debt will lead potential shareholders to require higher returns to address the increased risk caused by the high debt.

    Expert Insight
    2.
    Warren Buffett and other proponents of buy-and-hold investment encourage investors to avoid companies that have too much debt. Buffett and others acknowledge the formulaic reality that leverage can be used to make ROE higher. However, because of the potential long-term problems of excessive debt levels, Buffett recommends investing in companies that have strong balance sheets with little or no debt.
    Some special features in #BFL

    BFL has one of the best ROE
    BFL will improve cash flow further and ROE even in the next financial year
    They have strong demand for their products.
    Coming months are peak season in tourism

    A stock with a P/E of 30 obviously has much greater scope for a fall than one with a P/E of 8.

    In addition, a higher return on equity means that surplus funds can be invested to improve business operations without the owners of the business (stockholders) having to invest more capital. It also means that there is less need to borrow

    The example early on this page shows that debt financing can be used to increase the rate of return on equity. This can be misleading and also problematical if interest rates rise or fall. This is probably one reason why Warren Buffett prefers companies with little or no debt

    Benjamin Graham believed that the current ratio, the ratio of current liabilities to current debt was important in looking at a company’s financial position. In theory, the higher the ratio, the more comfortable, financially, is the company. This has been called the test of liquidity

    When a company is in a sound position, the current assets well exceed the current liabilities, indicating that the company will have no difficulty in taking care of its current debts as they mature

    Warren Buffet acknowledges that debt can effectively increase the return on equity in a company but warns against it. ( NB: If we find debt- ROE ,We should study these types stocks carefully)

    Warren Buffett does not like debt and does not like to invest in companies that have too much debt, particularly long-term debt.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Is it safe to buy #B... reply from Rizan, 23 days ago
  • Priyanke

    Thank you for sharing. And since I am new to the share market. I collected #BFl @ Rs.69 and Rs.75 at different timings and in my portfolio all together it show the average price. So even when I sell each share would the cost price be Rs.72 for each?
    I am asking this because now if I am planning to buy more wont the average price increase for me? Wont my previous margin profit decrease when more are added to portfolio and the average price will be more. Can't I sell handle the new shares separately in the same account without becoming the average price?
    Thankx
  • [Updated] Is it safe to buy #B... reply from MarketWatch, 23 days ago
  • Three outstanding companies in the market today.

    WATA, BFL and NEST

    They are food and hot beverages oriented

    EPS in the current quarter

    #WATA EPS 6.18
    #NEST 7.73
    #BFL 6.51

    Remember BFL has the best current ratio and working capital position when compare with WATA and NEST.

    BFL has lowest debt when compare with WATA

    http://www.accountancy.com.pk/articles_students.asp?id=77

    The importance of working capital

    Many organizations that are profitable on paper are forced to cease trading due to an inability to meet short-term debts when they fall due. In order to remain in business it is essential that an organization successfully manage its working capital. Too often however, this is an area, which is ignored
    http://www.ehow.com/about_6390769_debt-versus-equity-issue-important_.html

    Why Is the Debt Versus Equity Issue So Important?

    A company's debt-to-equity ratio indicates its potential to stay in business.
    The debt-to-equity ratio of a company speaks volumes about its riskiness. they're more likely to remain in business and are likely to have better access to equity and debt markets for growth.

    High debt levels can reduce the profitability of a business. Unlike equity, which is paid only when the company is profitable, debt holders are entitled to consistent payments of interest at defined interest rates . Consequently, high debt levels will compel a company to devote significant amounts of money to paying interest expenses. Absent the debt, the money could be used to pay dividends to shareholders or for expansion of the business.

    Access to Capital Markets
    1.
    Extremely high levels of debt can make it difficult to attract additional investors or to receive new loans. When debt levels are high enough that they make the risk of default on future loans too high, banks will become less likely to loan money and will increase required interest rates. Similarly, increases in risk that result from high levels of debt will lead potential shareholders to require higher returns to address the increased risk caused by the high debt.

    Expert Insight
    2.
    Warren Buffett and other proponents of buy-and-hold investment encourage investors to avoid companies that have too much debt. Buffett and others acknowledge the formulaic reality that leverage can be used to make ROE higher. However, because of the potential long-term problems of excessive debt levels, Buffett recommends investing in companies that have strong balance sheets with little or no debt.
    Some special features in #BFL

    BFL has one of the best ROE
    BFL will improve cash flow further and ROE even in the next financial year
    They have strong demand for their products.
    Coming months are peak season in tourism

    A stock with a P/E of 30 obviously has much greater scope for a fall than one with a P/E of 8.

    In addition, a higher return on equity means that surplus funds can be invested to improve business operations without the owners of the business (stockholders) having to invest more capital. It also means that there is less need to borrow

    The example early on this page shows that debt financing can be used to increase the rate of return on equity. This can be misleading and also problematical if interest rates rise or fall. This is probably one reason why Warren Buffett prefers companies with little or no debt

    Benjamin Graham believed that the current ratio, the ratio of current liabilities to current debt was important in looking at a company’s financial position. In theory, the higher the ratio, the more comfortable, financially, is the company. This has been called the test of liquidity

    When a company is in a sound position, the current assets well exceed the current liabilities, indicating that the company will have no difficulty in taking care of its current debts as they mature

    Warren Buffet acknowledges that debt can effectively increase the return on equity in a company but warns against it. ( NB: If we find debt- ROE ,We should study these types stocks carefully)

    Warren Buffett does not like debt and does not like to invest in companies that have too much debt, particularly long-term debt.


    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Why #BFL worth more ... reply from MarketWatch, 23 days ago
  • @cse.see

    Have you noticed following in addition to points highlighted by you.

    Their working capital and cash position has improved dramatically

    As you said, their debt has come down dramatically

    Their assets, reserves and retained earnings have increased dramatically.

    They have better accounting and cost control systems. Otherwise, will they win awards for their accounts from institute of chartered accountants of Sri-Lanka constantly?

    I already said they would have one of the best and biggest achievements in their business life in the next financial year. They will achieve more in the future too.

    Unlike TAFL, they do not have any accumulated losses in their books.

    In short BFL is a hidden gem, number one value gem, growth gem, future cash cow and asset play in the market.

    This is what #BFL did in financial year ending 31/03/ 2010.

    #BFL: The Gilded Feather in our Cap!

    BFL annual Report 2009/10 :An excellent year placed us as Sri-Lanka’s Largest and the leading producer of day old boiler chicks.

    BFL has new markets from north and east in addition to tourist market. They are in a position to export not only Cobb chicks but also chicken in the future. Their market is expanding and now they have to expand their production capacity faster than before.

    Now they have plan to implement and expand production including maize and chicks in the current year.

    This what Chairman said?

    “It took nearly 10 years for the Sri Lankan
    Poultry Industry to double its production
    and consumption, and now with the
    potential for massive growth, doubling
    production in a shorter period is not too far
    away”

    In fact, we are looking at a very exciting
    period of stability and consolidation of
    growth where your Company and the
    Group should not only perform better but
    grow with the industry as the demand
    for chicken is expected to rise with the
    projected growth in the economy.

    Thus the future, after some
    troubled years, is looking good for the
    Company and the Group, which in turn
    should bode well for our shareholders

    With the demand for chicken rising from
    a sharp rise in local consumption and
    tourist arrivals as income levels rise in
    line with a Government target of per
    capita income, currently over $2000,
    which is expected to double in five years
    with an increase every year from now
    on, your Company and the Group would
    look forward to exponential growth and
    enhanced turnover and profits. Indeed,
    the good days are ahead!

    Already we see an increase including in
    the North and East demand for chicken
    products which is expected to continue
    throughout the year based on discussions
    the industry representatives had with
    the Minister of Consumer Affairs and
    with the officials of the Ministry of
    Finance and Planning.

    It took nearly 10 years for the Sri Lankan
    Poultry Industry to double its production
    and consumption, and now with the
    potential for massive growth, doubling
    production in a shorter period is not too far
    away, provided the consumption grows as
    expected. In fact, at recent discussions that
    the industry has been having with
    Dr. P.B. Jayasundera, Secretary to the
    Ministry of Finance and Economic
    Development, the latter urged the industry
    to double the production within five years
    in view of the anticipated increase in the
    number of tourist arrivals, development
    activities that have been taking place and
    the expected increase in per capita income

    Macro outlook on
    Sri Lanka’s Poultry Industry

    The Government has set an ambitious
    target of attracting 2.5 Mn tourists to
    Sri Lanka by the year 2016 from a current
    500,000-plus number of arrivals. To the
    industry it means boosting production
    by a phenomenal level in addition to
    rising demands, as stated in the previous
    paragraph. A tall order indeed and a huge
    challenge

    All this means, your Company will be
    confronted with the need to increase
    investment to raise production capacity,
    infuse new technology and witness
    growth in the industry. A more vibrant
    economy, and in the case of the poultry
    industry, a sharp rise in demand would be
    some of the positive challenges we may be
    facing in the not-too-distant future.

    Raw Material and Feed

    The production of maize in the country,
    vital for feeding the birds has improved
    substantially, and very soon it is expected
    that the country will be self-sufficient in
    maize. This would help your Company
    to explore the possibility of exporting
    chicken once the higher production of
    maize results in lower price for maize
    and poultry feed.


    The potential for the rising demand in
    chicken products in the Northern and
    Eastern Provinces in a post-war era, in
    addition to demand coming from other
    sectors of the economy as described
    earlier, cannot be underestimated and
    your Company and the Group is gearing
    towards positively facing these challenges.

    Future Direction
    If the current positive trends in the
    industry as stated above continue,
    the Group and the Company expect
    to minimise further their exposure to
    bank borrowing whilst at the same time
    reducing their exposure to other major
    creditors and thereby strengthen the
    Group’s and Company’s financial position
    to explore other business opportunities.

    CEO
    That opportunity is there now and I
    endorse everything our Chairman says,
    and as numerous development projects
    are underway in the country we are
    gearing ourselves to cater to rising
    demand for chicken products from local
    consumers as well as from tourists, which
    are a few of the growth areas

    However, many
    of these issues do not exist today and
    the Company and the Group are looking
    forward to an era of sustained growth,
    given the enormous opportunities ahead
    which should provide more value to our
    shareholders and stakeholders.

    Past Year and Demand

    the Poultry Industry would be a major
    beneficiary from the development of the
    country which is expected to see rapid
    change in coming months

    The production of COBB day-old-chicks
    not only helped to improve the bottom
    line but enhanced the performance both
    at the broiler farms and contract farms.
    We were also able to provide chicks
    with outstanding traits to our external
    customers including other chicken
    processors.


    Broiler Farm Operations
    and Day-Old-Chicks


    Performance of the broiler farms has
    been outstanding and these have in fact
    performed much better than the contract
    farmers in terms of productivity and other
    production parameters.

    The production of COBB day-old-chicks
    not only helped to improve the bottom
    line but enhanced the performance both
    at the broiler farms and contract farms.
    We were also able to provide chicks
    with outstanding traits to our external
    customers including other chicken
    processors.

    In the year under review, the Bairaha
    Group has taken the No. 1 position as the
    largest broiler day-old-chicks producer and
    this admirable status has been achieved
    through planned, organic growth


    Maize Production

    The maize project has not yet commenced
    large scale operation and one of the
    main drawbacks was the drought that
    prevailed in the Mahiyangana area. The
    Company that is doing this project expects
    to introduce mechanised dryers, that
    it has imported, before the next Maha
    harvest and use the dryers for the maize
    to be purchased from the farmers as
    well as those that this Company expects
    to cultivate. The Company also plans to
    engage in the trading of maize to supply
    it to feed millers.

    Exports and Awards

    Fortune G-P Farms (Lanka) Ltd., a member
    of the Bairaha Group, has exported two
    consignments of Broiler Breeder Parent
    chicks to Nepal. This Bairaha associate
    company is the most modern and the largest
    of the two companies in Sri Lanka which
    produces Broiler Breeder Parent chicks


    Since the Government has been
    encouraging the local cultivation of
    maize it did not allow imports in spite
    of the 35% Cess even though there was a
    shortage of maize in the country during
    certain months of the year. However,
    there was a change of policy after the
    authorities realised that there was an
    acute shortage of maize in the country.
    A limited quantity of maize was then
    allowed to be imported under a special
    permit scheme. The current maize price
    is around Rs. 34/- per kg but at one time
    it shot up to Rs. 51/- per kg during a few
    months in the year under review due to
    restricted imports as well as the high Cess
    on imported maize.


    Financial Performance
    The Group has done outstandingly well in
    the year under review in terms of both
    turnover and profitability, and given an
    improved political, economic and social
    environment expects to see much better
    growth prospects in the next year and the
    years to come. The improved global
    environment should help the situation
    further. The turnover of the Group
    increased from Rs. 1,840 Mn in the
    previous year to Rs. 2,064 Mn in th

    year under review, representing a 12%
    increase, which can be considered
    satisfactory in the current business
    climate in Sri Lanka. Group profit after
    tax of Rs. 134 Mn is a 5074% increase in
    comparison with the previous year’s
    profit of Rs. 2.59 Mn. This can be
    considered as an outstanding performance
    as this is an all time highest profit figure
    ever reported.


    Intensive Marketing
    The Group launched an intensive
    marketing campaign for one of the new
    value added products, namely, marinated
    chicken and we are happy with the
    success of the campaign and the product.
    The Group hopes to further penetrate
    the market for its other products
    through advertising campaigns and other
    promotional activities


    New Markets

    The Group has commenced distribution
    of its products both in the Northern as
    well as in the Eastern areas of Sri Lanka,
    while also participating in the ’Jaffna
    International 2010 Trade Fair‘ held in
    Jaffna in April 2010. These two regions
    (the North and the East) provide a huge
    potential for the Group’s products. While
    these markets will be flushed with a range
    of products of differing quality, ultimately
    companies like Bairaha which prides on
    quality of its products will succeed as
    consumers in these regions become more
    quality-conscious. That’s how markets
    have developed over the years and we see
    this evolving in the North and East too.


    So We Have Done Well but
    What About the Future…?
    We expect the Group’s production of
    day-old-chicks to increase by 15% this
    year, helping to strengthen and dominate
    its market position. Also on the cards is
    the introduction of existing processed
    meat products in new packaging aimed
    at further improving and enhancing the
    brand status in the market

    With the expected setting up of the large
    scale broiler farm in the current year,
    the Group expects to reap more benefits
    from this integration and further enhance
    its position for branded broiler chicken
    amongst its existing customers as well
    and new customers.
  • [Updated] #GRAN & #TAFL reply from MarketWatch, 24 days ago
  • I recently said poultry group would have improved results in this quarter and said three stocks to watch: #BFL, #GRAN and #TAFL.

    #BFL is the clear winner, current leader, emerging leader and future leader in this group due to less debt, strong balance sheet, strong cash flow and future potential and new developments.

    BFL has all the characteristics of a hidden gem, value gem, growth gem, cash cow and asset play.
  • [Updated] Starting to loose FA... reply from smalik, 24 days ago
  • Hi MW,

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts. But i'm still a bit lost on wat I'm suppose to do. but luckily my holding power is a bit ok. unfortunatle i dont have the capacity to buy unless i sell.

    so maybe I'll sell off abt half of what i have on khl with a minimum lose and also try to collect a few like #BFL and #MAL

    I'm also looking to collect a few of #NEH

    I also have a considerable amount of #NHL so hopefully that would not let me down.

    once again,

    A big thanks to everyone :)

    Cheers!!!!!
  • [Updated] Starting to loose FA... reply from smalik, 24 days ago
  • Thanks all :)

    @Mw,

    I know KHL is a sound stock and it is backed up hard by it's parent holdings.

    However i'm still undecided to sell of #KHL @ a lost and invest in #BFL for the tym been and collect some #KHL in the future or jst to hold on to this which is all red for a considerble tym (Hoping it would come up)

    (Coz my feelings towards KHL right now is more like IT'S ALL SHOW BUT NO GO)

    Appreciating you feedback as always.

    Cheers
  • [Updated] Why #BFL worth more ... reply from MarketWatch, 24 days ago
  • Once I read a book, what other accountants will not tell you- written by a lady accountant.

    CSE. SEE as an accountant that you are giving some valuable analysis. Normally some accountants will not tell us everything, Thanks.

    Some will put attention to only EPS and other financial ratios in balance sheet and quarterly reports. However, we can learn more than that. From that we can become bullish, bearish and extremely bullish or extremely bearish

    We should have reason to buy and sell. I said #BFL is number one value gem in the market. Then there is an asset play and cash cow play as well.

    Pl refer to my barriers for #BFL. It has all the characteristics to become one of the best bullish stocks in the CSE.

    I have to agree strongly with both CSE.SEE AND PGCR on breaking Rs.200 barrier.

    NB: When I mentioned some stocks, they will not go up suddenly and within the short period. It will take six months to five years depend on the some other tortoise plus factors.

    #BFL is a tortoise plus stock according to my analysis. We have to spend lot time and study for a considerable period to identify extremely bullish stocks.

    Value is very important. Then we should see growth and some other factors. I analyse other factors time to time using my tortoise plus strategy

    For example suddenly I saw tea average price in July has come down when compare with last year. In addition, we should have some idea about global palm oil and commodity trend. Commodity market has become more speculative now. Actually, oil should trade below $60 now.

    However, due to short-term traders and some other instruments there is a speculative price also involve in oil, rubber and palm oil. Sometimes Prices can come down due to these players.

    As I said earlier, we can see volatiliilty in oil $65 to $80 around now. We can expect some volatility in both rubber and palm oil in the short run.

    In the long run, there will be demand for oil, rubber and palm oil. Even tea will have good prices time to time in the long run

    If oil go down to around 60, it is good for the economy.

    More on plantation group.

    Tea sales averages come down in July when compare with corresponding last year

    They have completely different pattern and unpredictable now

    Different plantations stocks will outperform other plantations stocks during next five years.

    We have to study thoroughly each plantations stock including their diversification.

    I have notice when different group and crowd become active some plantations stocks can go up suddenly


    Good luck
  • [Updated] what will be #BFL s ... reply from vpwvpw, 25 days ago
  • May be #BFL price go up and up until 10 pc price band is relaxed? This is not deliberate manipulation but automatic manipulation. When a person who has large stock of #BFL decide that it is enough, he will start selling and price will drop 10 pc each day. And most of us may not be able to sell our stocks like for DPL now???
  • [Updated] If #BFL post EPS abo... reply from ruckshansilv, 25 days ago
  • @PGCR

    Your comments are so true!

    I am also very much impressed with MW's post and how he approached! Hats off to MW!

    #BFL will move further up and anyhow long term potential is immaculate !
  • [Updated] High demand for #BFL... reply from ruckshansilv, 25 days ago
  • I would genuinely like to comment on #BFL and my learning on the stock market from Sep 09 up to now, proves to me that, to be a sophisticated investor, you genuinely have to give time and adopt a strategy for long run for at least for 85 - 90 % of your portfolio.

    I can remember at many instances I have got into Market Gems such as RCL @ 50's, AHPL @ 80's, SEYBX @ 15's etc during the Nov 09 - Feb10 periods and have existed without knowing its potential values. Now they all trade above 100% return.

    After learning from those lessons and identifying #BFL in Feb this year, I have kept hold to it and would eventually hold for a very longer period as its a growth stock.

    While some members had similar negative thoughts on #BFL during last few weeks, we clearly indicated the potential and mainly pointed out its not merely marketing of #BFL, but genuinely showing its value and growth potential.

    I personally associate with 3 brokers and all of them under-estimated #BFL earlier and now they have realized its potential.

    Therefore the beauty of this forum lies on those facts, where there are valuable members such as MW, cse.see, Rehan who have published their honest opinions on value gems such as #BFL and indicated to the whole members of this forum prior to others realizing.

    That would be the value that this forum should encourage, where we all discuss on valued stocks and discuss on future potential, so that many members would be educated on company growth and performances time to time.

    Good Luck!
  • [Updated] High demand for #BFL... reply from san1985, 25 days ago
  • Really greatful to MW....

    My advisor asked me to dump #BFL when it is stagnating around 70....

    But I keep it knowing its potential as explained by MW, cse.see and few other members...

    The funny part is now he wants me to buy more saying they have produced marvelous results.....

    Poor advisers...

    Thanks again MW....
  • [Updated] High demand for #BFL... reply from Rizan, 26 days ago
  • MarketWatch,
    Thank you very much for your Great Professional Analysis, my portfolio is heavily invested in #BFL :D Hope you will stay with us forever and guide.
  • [Updated] #BFL - Revaluation reply from cse.see, 26 days ago
  • Yesterday I mentioned "Tommorow it will possibly reach to Rs.86.40"....
    Yes, as predicted it reached to Rs.86.40.
    Tommorow, #BFL will possibly to reach Rs.95.00.
  • [Updated] High demand for #BFL... reply from sampath2009, 26 days ago
  • My gratitude goes to M/W and all the experts who post about #BFL , Thank you very much !!!!!!
  • [Updated] High demand for #BFL... reply from rehanbb, 26 days ago
  • @cse.cse thanks for the timely update on #MAL. I collected few lot MAL after seeing your post . and collected quite a lot #BFL for 70 after seeing @MW predictions. Thanks guys.
  • [Updated] #BFL - Revaluation reply from cse.see, 27 days ago
  • Yesterday #BFL Closing Price Rs.71.50.
    Today can Max. 78.60
    Trading start at Rs.78.50
    UP TO 12.30 pm - 450,000 shares traded.

    09:30 500 78.50
    09:31 500 78.50
    09:33 500 78.00
    09:33 1,900 78.50
    09:33 200 78.50
    09:33 100 78.50
    09:34 500 78.50
    09:34 500 78.00
    09:34 300 76.50
    09:34 2,000 78.00
    09:34 500 78.00
    09:35 1,000 78.00
    09:35 1,000 78.50
    09:35 600 78.00
    09:35 300 78.00
    09:35 900 78.50
    09:35 200 78.50
    09:35 100 78.00
    09:35 2,000 78.00
    09:36 200 78.00
    09:36 1,000 78.00
    09:36 1,700 78.00
    09:36 200 78.00
    09:36 800 78.00
    09:36 800 78.50
    09:36 2,000 78.50
    09:36 3,000 78.50
    09:36 1,500 78.50
    09:36 1,900 78.50
    09:36 1,000 78.00
    09:36 2,700 78.00
    09:36 800 78.00
    09:36 4,700 78.00
    09:36 100 78.00
    09:37 100 78.50
    09:37 200 78.50
    09:37 500 78.50
    09:37 400 78.50
    09:37 3,400 78.00
    09:37 1,700 78.00
    09:37 100 78.50
    09:37 700 78.60
    09:37 1,300 78.00
    09:37 2,000 78.00
    09:37 300 78.00
    09:38 1,900 78.00
    09:38 100 78.00
    09:38 200 78.00
    09:38 300 78.00
    09:38 1,000 78.00
    09:38 400 78.00
    09:38 400 78.00
    09:39 200 78.00
    09:39 300 78.00
    09:39 200 78.00
    09:39 1,400 78.00
    09:40 900 78.20
    09:41 100 78.20
    09:41 1,400 78.00
    09:41 1,900 78.00
    09:41 300 78.20
    09:41 200 78.00
    09:41 4,800 78.00
    09:41 500 78.00
    09:41 4,200 78.00
    09:42 800 78.60
    09:42 200 78.60
    09:42 100 78.60
    09:42 600 78.60
    09:42 3,000 78.60
    09:43 1,700 78.60
    09:43 3,300 78.00
    09:44 200 78.60
    09:44 1,000 78.60
    09:44 600 78.60
    09:45 1,500 78.60
    09:45 2,000 78.60
    09:46 500 78.60
    09:46 1,200 78.60
    09:47 8,300 78.60
    09:47 500 78.60
    09:47 1,200 78.60
    09:49 1,000 78.60
    09:50 8,800 78.60
    09:50 2,000 78.60
    09:50 500 78.60
    09:50 500 78.60
    09:50 6,800 78.60
    09:50 3,200 78.60
    09:50 100 78.60
    09:50 1,000 78.60
    09:50 500 78.60
    09:50 1,000 78.60
    09:50 100 78.50
    09:50 500 78.50
    09:50 5,000 78.00
    09:51 8,700 78.60
    09:51 800 78.60
    09:51 100 78.60
    09:51 8,100 78.60
    09:51 500 77.10
    09:51 800 77.10
    09:51 100 77.00
    09:51 500 77.00
    09:51 100 77.00
    09:51 400 78.60
    09:51 1,600 78.60
    09:52 10,000 77.00
    09:52 500 78.60
    09:52 5,000 78.60
    09:53 500 78.60
    09:53 500 78.60
    09:54 2,000 78.60
    09:54 1,500 78.60
    09:54 1,000 78.60
    09:55 500 78.60
    09:56 200 78.60
    09:57 100 78.60
    09:58 1,200 78.00
    09:59 200 77.60
    09:59 1,000 77.50
    09:59 200 77.50
    09:59 1,000 77.10
    09:59 1,000 77.00
    09:59 7,400 77.00
    09:59 1,700 78.00
    09:59 700 78.00
    10:00 2,600 77.00
    10:00 400 77.00
    10:00 100 77.00
    10:00 1,000 77.00
    10:00 10,000 77.00
    10:00 200 77.00
    10:00 500 77.00
    10:00 2,000 78.50
    10:00 2,500 77.00
    10:00 1,000 78.50
    10:01 2,700 77.00
    10:01 500 78.50
    10:01 500 78.50
    10:03 200 78.00
    10:03 300 78.00
    10:03 200 78.00
    10:03 3,000 78.00
    10:05 3,000 78.00
    10:06 8,300 78.00
    10:06 1,700 78.00
    10:06 300 78.00
    10:07 2,000 78.00
    10:07 6,000 78.00
    10:08 6,000 78.00
    10:08 5,000 78.00
    10:09 5,000 78.00
    10:09 1,500 78.00
    10:09 500 78.40
    10:09 400 78.40
    10:09 500 78.40
    10:09 500 78.40
    10:09 500 78.40
    10:09 200 78.50
    10:09 1,000 78.50
    10:09 1,000 78.50
    10:09 100 78.50
    10:09 10,000 78.50
    10:09 1,000 78.60
    10:09 5,300 78.50
    10:09 14,700 78.00
    10:10 2,500 78.00
    10:10 1,800 78.20
    10:13 20,000 78.60
    10:13 5,000 78.60
    10:13 5,000 78.60
    10:14 2,000 78.60
    10:14 3,100 78.60
    10:15 3,900 78.60
    10:15 5,800 78.60
    10:17 200 78.60
    10:17 500 78.60
    10:17 200 78.60
    10:17 100 78.30
    10:17 1,000 78.20
    10:19 1,000 78.60
    10:20 200 78.60
    10:20 400 78.60
    10:22 100 78.60
    10:25 3,300 78.60
    10:25 800 78.60
    10:25 10,000 78.60
    10:25 200 78.60
    10:25 5,000 78.60
    10:25 700 78.60
    10:26 300 78.60
    10:26 8,700 78.60
    10:32 6,300 78.60
    10:32 500 78.60
    10:32 100 78.60
    10:32 300 78.60
    10:32 9,000 78.60
    10:32 200 78.60
    10:32 3,000 78.60
    10:32 2,500 78.60
    10:32 1,500 78.60
    10:32 200 78.60
    10:33 100 78.60
    10:33 6,600 78.60
    10:53 1,000 78.60
    10:53 1,400 78.60
    10:53 200 78.60
    10:57 3,400 78.60
    10:57 1,000 78.60
    10:57 1,500 78.60
    10:57 4,100 78.60
    11:00 100 78.60
    11:00 300 78.60
    11:00 100 78.60
    11:08 400 78.60
    11:08 600 78.60
    11:22 400 78.60
    11:22 100 78.60
    11:22 1,000 78.60
    11:22 3,500 78.60
    11:23 1,500 78.60
    11:23 1,000 78.60
    11:23 300 78.60
    11:24 500 78.60
    11:30 5,000 78.60
    11:31 4,200 78.60
    11:31 1,500 78.60
    11:31 6,800 78.60
    11:36 400 78.60
    11:52 1,000 78.60
    12:05 1,200 78.60
    12:06 2,900 78.60
    12:07 500 78.60
    12:18 600 78.60
    12:28 1,000 78.60
    12:29 500 78.60

    Now Order book - Buyers arround 150,000 for Rs.78.60. No sellers.
    Now high demand for #BFL.
    Tommorow it will possibly reach to Rs.86.40

    *Edited by the admin, last statement was changed from will to will possibly as this leaves room for the unforeseeable*
  • [Updated] Help me ! :( reply from abdurrahman, 27 days ago
  • Thnx alot ,
    @ Marketwatch - where can I do the learning , any known sites which could provide me with the information. I really find your information really valuable , I've decided #BFL is a good buy unfortunately no sellers and the prices is continuing to rise .
    Also how do I read and understand a companies growth potential and whether they are undervalued ? Tips on that would be helpful .

    @ kgsindika
    Thnk u very much really helped , I'm lookin forward toinvest around 100K - is it too little to start with?
  • [Updated] #BFL - Revaluation reply from cse.see, 27 days ago
  • Time to time we would have to change our investment strategy.
    Earlier (1 -2 years back) #BFL was low value negligible stock.
    Now they are expanding their Business/Products/earnings.
    As Market Watch several times mentioned, once we saw great value stocks, we have to love them.
  • [Updated] #BFL - Revaluation reply from cse.see, 27 days ago
  • Now see high demand in #BFL order book....
    More buyers for Rs.78.60....No sellers....
    #BFL will up & up in comming days.....
    Very Clear return to you.....
  • [Updated] BFL suffering from 1... reply from sheriff , 27 days ago
  • @priyanke. let's keep counting few more days with 10% rule... :)

    No sellers for #BFL.......keep your fingers crossed... Really performing well ..

    What would be the value of #BFL at the end of 2010 ??
  • [Updated] BFL's EPS 6.51 for Q... reply from ruckshansilv, 27 days ago
  • This is superb results! Beyond what was expected by #BFL

    MW, the hidden gem has shown its colors!

    NAVPS also adjusted to - 54.05

    Best part - Still the tourist and country growth is pending in future. Potential of #BFL massive!

    Good Luck!
  • [Updated] who are the winners? reply from majestic, 27 days ago
  • I was in a cash position in the morning of the 2nd Monday.
    So when all hell broke loose on Wed, started collecting slowly
    Didn't sell anything betw Wed and today and my portfolio is back where it was.
    So yes,I guess I collected enough of #CLND, #RICH and #BFL
  • [Updated] who are the winners? reply from majestic, 27 days ago
  • I was in a cash position in the morning of the 2nd Monday.
    So when all hell broke loose on Wed, started collecting slowly
    Didn't sell anything betw Wed and today and my portfolio is back where it was.
    So yes,I guess I collected enough of #CLND, #RICH and #BHR.
  • [Updated] #BFL: The Gilded Fea... reply from MarketWatch, 4 Aug 10
  • If we have faith in the company and if we can understand business of the company then we should go for it.

    In the current market if we can find stocks with combination of value and growth we will be able to get above average gain in the medium term and long term.


    #BFL has reported remarkable improvement in net asset per share.

    I think their net asset per share will go up dramatically in the coming years.

    It is a hidden gem and a future cash cow in the current market.


    Good luck.
  • [Updated] #BFL: The Gilded Fea... reply from ruckshansilv, 3 Aug 10
  • #BFL financial statement is very impressive.

    NAVPS has risen to 47.54 from 28.43
    EPS has risen to 8.38 from 0.16

    I think we should expect quarter statement also soon!
  • [Updated] Kind Suggestion reply from MarketWatch, 31 Jul 10
  • If market players become active stocks such #MASK, # NAMU #HOPL, #ELPL can go up suddenly.

    Whenever some strong players become active, we can see active trading in stocks such as #BALA, #LFIN, #KGAL, #Kval #GRAN, #TAFL,# JKH, #LWL etc.

    On other hand #BFL has completely different bullish pattern.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] CSE -ASI 5000 and be... reply from MarketWatch, 30 Jul 10
  • Thanks DoctorJV

    I cannot predict. Nobody can predict 100% correctly. All my analysis is based on my tortoise plus strategy. I make use my numerical calculations as well. Even I gave range bound for #GREG that is Rs.50 to Rs.150/-

    Interest on other stocks suddenly disappeared from the market due to interest on Gregg; DPL

    We should concentrate on the next most bullish stocks now. We should go behind simple business that can understand and that we know very well.

    Now we should apply contrarian intelligent approach to stock picking.

    I am using my own tortoise plus strategy. In plus there are many strong factors. One is using contrarian approach.

    We should go against the crowd now.

    Try to buy 100 shares of #BFL and study about their movements, pattern etc. It will help us to take wise decisions on other stocks in the future. Really, it will help us to find some new hidden gems.


    Good luck!
  • [Updated] BFL quarterly report... reply from MarketWatch, 29 Jul 10
  • Most of the companies announced their quarterly results around May 15, 15 Feb for previous quarters. Therefore, we can expect around 15th of August.

    I think #BFL, #GRAN and #TAFL will announced improved results when compare with last year. We never know even BFL will announced their final dividend. They already announced their interim dividend.

    It looks likes companies are going to announce their quarterly results earlier than we thought. Even we can expect during next two weeks.


    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Guide to Financial a... reply from Mr.J, 29 Jul 10
  • Seems like u hav invested in plantation, banking and hotel sectors. Plus in Odel. Nice portfolio as a beginner. if u hv collected #KHL, and #REEF not at the peak, dn should be really demanding.

    Talking about Odel, u will be able to gain about 50%gains. But i would think u should't put the selling order on the very early morning on the first day. U should wait till it seems like stabilizing. Prefer sell around 12pm-1pm. So u can make it sure u wn't be disappointed unrealizing potential gains if it continue to increase. nd may continue to increase the 2nd day too. But c whthr it perform well on da first day. nd i think u may not hv a high % on Odel bcz of oversubscription thing. So may be thinking of collecting more in the first few days. :)

    #JINS will giv u some gains nxt few months. Still the reports r not announced. but they had confirmd first Q, this yr as a huge success. So u bettr keep it. Or even go for more, if u r to invest in a no loss stock.

    As expets say hotel sector will be profitable. But dn't know hw long u hv to wait. so if u hv to remove one it should be #MARA, since it continue to show losses. No matter hw #KHL keep at 22 level, still it's gud. CAM fund is too going for it. So may expect bettr results. #REEF too seems to be volatile since #CONN divesting its stake.

    Whn considering #HOPL why did u go for it? But not #BALA or #TPL? But #HOPL too is a gud one, showing positives with the plantation rally, although it keeps ups and downs.

    So a whole wish u gud luck with ur demanding portfolio. Nd keep ur eye on #BFL, #SEYB, #NHL, #CSEC and #TWOD to diversify ur portfolio. :)
  • [Updated] Keep an eye on #BFL... reply from ruckshansilv, 29 Jul 10
  • @rema,

    I would like to mention that #BFL has given clearly more than 105% return to its investors for the last quarter.

    31/03/2010, price was @ 34.00
    30/06/2010, price was @ 70.00. (Highest during the period of 76.25.)

    You can look up on previous quarter gains if needed. It has definite growth in the long run. The market has identified it and it has all characteristics of an undervalued stock. More details can be seen on previous posts.

    Anyhow the point is that, I honestly have not seen any forum member marketing this stock. I personally found on its value after our valued forum members discussed on its potential and afterward doing my own research. For the past 6 months I don’t think marketing was done on #BFL as it has been already identified by the market and trading better than its previous year.

    Marketwatch, I would really appreciate if you could comment on point 01 of above post by cse.see
  • [Updated] Keep an eye on #BFL... reply from cse.see, 29 Jul 10
  • #BFL earnings 2009/10
    Jun'09 - 12.5 Mn
    Sep'09 - 24.9 Mn
    Dec'09 - 21.8 Mn
    Mar'10 - 71.1 Mn

    From MW : In the current quarter, they will have attractive earnings when compare with corresponding last year.

    Yes. definetly. It can be more than Rs.12.5 Mn when compaire to end Jun'09 results.
    I think #BFL will publish between Rs.40 Mn - 50 Mn profits for 30.06.2010 end quarter. (EPS 3.0 level)
    Then can predict 2010/11 annualized EPS = 3 x 4 = 12

    if so, better to monitor following 02 points.

    01. if Market will compair with Mar'10 end results. If they consider quarter on quarter growth, then, in short run, Share price will little bit down. may be to Rs.65/- or 63/- level.

    02. if Market will consider 2010/11 forecasted earnings, assume 50 Mn x 4 = 200 Mn, Then EPS may = 200/16 = 12.5, Then in short run, it will break Rs.100/- soon.

    * Other factor they will announce high dividend during next month.
    * But do not forget, definetly, #BFL have a long term value.
  • [Updated] Keep an eye on #BFL... reply from MarketWatch, 29 Jul 10
  • I think we will be able to get better return from above group in the future.

    When compare with other groups and market P/E this group is undervalued.

    In the current quarter, they will have attractive earnings when compare with corresponding last year.

    #BFL is massively undervalued having ROE more than 25.

    We should not underestimate this group.

    Goo d luck!
  • [Updated] Hello Experts in thi... reply from investor_007, 28 Jul 10
  • Dear MW,

    To be honest I do not follow technical analysis. I do know such patterns and trends exist, but I give priority to Fundamental Analysis and as you always say, it's about the future growth and not past. So therefore how can we predict through technical analysis, if the sector, group or company doesn't have strong fundamental analysis and a good potential for business in future. I maybe wrong, but I purely judge a stock on the fundamental analysis and also put some common sense through simple economics.

    #BFL is a stock I have analyzed for past 6 months carefully and have invested during regular intervals. Even though the sudden temp conditions apply with imports etc, I think it will not have any challenges. Eventually what will happen is the chicken consumption will double in the time to come and their products will have more demand.

    Current status of #BFL in the market is different and I see clear prediction on future growth!.

    As you say "Some stocks will end up with more than 10 baggers in the long run." its very true! It directly applies #BFL.

    Best Regards,
  • [Updated] Hello Experts in thi... reply from investor_007, 28 Jul 10
  • MW, thanks for your comments. Its true, not all stocks have same pattern and once we identify the pattern and the stocks clearly we should study about it and follow a long term plan.

    That is what happened to all the above stocks you had mentioned. Which had bull runs. Its about been an "Investor" oppose to a trader and I firmly believe!

    #BFL is a value gem. No doubt about its fundamental analysis. Its superb! It's current trading is around 69 - 72 within past weeks. Also around 10000 - 30000 shares per day.

    The same was existing when it was in 40 - 49 range.

    Any thoughts on this trade summary? I have belief after my analysis that it will start its bull run once again when the financial's are released. Please comment! Appreciate your thoughts?
  • [Updated] Hello Experts in thi... reply from MarketWatch, 28 Jul 10
  • As groups plantation and poulty groups are attrctive. Even there are undervalued stocks in other gorups as well.

    Some of the stocks to watch now:

    #BFL
    #BALA
    #HOPL
    #KGAL

    When #TPL was trading around Rs.30, I said it will have some potential and I gave some clue in advnce.

    It is trading over Rs.50 now.

    BFL is massively underavaued in the curent market. They have one of the highest ROE in the CSE.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] What are the best pi... reply from chinwi, 28 Jul 10
  • I appreciate you ask this type of support than asking questions like , will X share go $$ tomorrow or basics you can get from brokers , from CSE or from internet.

    BTW, you do not have to use all the funds you have at once.

    The experts in this forum mention good shares and their potential regularly .

    As you are novice you have to select low risk shares at the beginning. Then when you earn form them go for high risks.

    You can spread your funds among shares like #SEYB-X, #KAHA, #NTB-W, #BFL , few #TWOD, few #CSEC etc, with shares recommended by other members.

    Keep some funds for opportunities arise time to time.

    Experts always mention them here and when reports are out they will analyze and write before the market react to them.

    Eg. When #KGAL reported 15/- EPS, I saw masters picked it and write in this forum. We had over a month to buy it before the share appreciate towards 88 and then 110.
  • [Updated] Keep an eye on #BFL... reply from MarketWatch, 27 Jul 10
  • Policy makers clearly said it is a temporary measure and they are going to import 2000 mt out of 3000mt tn and they are going to distribute it from CWE outlets.

    Because they want to safeguard maize, famers while making self sufficient in both maize and poultry.

    Poultry demand is very strong due to opening of roads in north and east, demand for new areas in north and east from restaurants and hotels, form hotel sector etc. They can market all their poultry products and they will have to expand their production due to ever expanding tourist market, local market etc.

    Remember #BFL is the largest boiler chicks maker in SriLanka and they are the leader the industry. In addition, they are getting export orders as well.

    They will have short term , medium term and long term growth.

    Remember I said at least on valuation #BALA should go up.

    BFL has more value than plantation stocks now. It is markets’ number one value

    Finally, we forget about farmland value in TAFL, GRAN AND BFL. We have to revalue now.

    Good luck

    Some recent reply form other members:



    • reply from Rizan, 1 day ago
    • Imports is a temporary issue. Till then as soon #BFl is expanding their production and company. It will be selling its maximum and since demand is more than their production still they will make max profits where the resources are limiting. And mainly the #BFL is the trusted for Halal certified and the best ever market known for the Muslims since it was established. And #BFL owners are my relatives too. At the start when i joined the share market I did not expect it to go up like this. I missed my chance and now i realize it and never thought they will have potential and I purchased #BFL @ Rs.72. And just have a look at the fluctuation of the share price wont go less than Rs.69 bcuz its fundamentally strong so hope for it to go more further. Any ways Good Luck



    • reply from ruckshansilv, 1 day ago
    • Dear all,

    This is a temporary market condition and it is my thought!

    Basically I take this is such a positive news to the poultry industry as it clearly indicates basics principles of economic theory of demand and supply.

    Hence here the situation is about the supply been short and the demand for poultry products increasing day by day. Therefore as allot of senior members had given their thoughts on this industry several months ago, it has basically proved the point so much, that it has come to a stage where Sri Lanka demand on chicken is rapidly increasing.

    I am just putting my simple economic knowledge into this situation and I strongly feel that this sector has huge potential to grow. Anyhow this situation will be temporary and it's unlike big players like #BFL will face any risks / challenges in the longer run.

    I see this market condition as a good opportunity to collect some shares at this stage! Only my thought!

    MarketWatch had replied to this concern in previous post as well, please check following

    http://investnow.lk/2010/07/19/controversy-over-chicken-imports-from-brazil/2345/6569/

    Thanks!
    • reply from MarketWatch, 23 hours ago
    • ROE in the current year around 25. It will go up further during next financial year.

    They will announce much improved results in the coming quarters when compare with corresponding last year

    Poultry consumption will double in India during next five years.

    Remember not only in India and in China, middle class population will in Sri-Lanka as well.

    Tourist Market

    600,000 in 2010
    800,000 in 2011
    Beyond 2012 over million
    Beyond 2015 2.5 million

    North and East market

    Orders from Export market

    Even they can export value added products to India in the future.

    Still poultry farmers supply chicken below Rs.500 per KG despite feed cost. . Good variety of fish is exceeding Rs.1000/- per KG.

    Even if they announce EPS around 2.5 in every quarter, their EPS for next financial year will be around 10. Better than current year.

    If they announce EPS around 3.5, it will be EPS of 14. If it is around 4.5 it will be 18.

    We should follow their new developments such as fully operation of their maize project and expansion in export market and their business in the future.

    Remember not only poultry sector but also travel sector also will benefit in the future


    Good luck!
    ________________________________________
    ________________________________________

    • reply from MarketWatch, 23 hours ago
    • ROE in the current year around 25. It will go up further during next financial year.

    They will announce much improved results in the coming quarters when compare with corresponding last year

    Poultry consumption will double in India during next five years.

    Remember not only in India and in China, middle class population will in Sri-Lanka as well.

    Tourist Market

    600,000 in 2010
    800,000 in 2011
    Beyond 2012 over million
    Beyond 2015 2.5 million

    North and East market

    Orders from Export market

    Even they can export value added products to India in the future.

    Still poultry farmers supply chicken below Rs.500 per KG despite feed cost. . Good variety of fish is exceeding Rs.1000/- per KG.

    Even if they announce EPS around 2.5 in every quarter, their EPS for next financial year will be around 10. Better than current year.

    If they announce EPS around 3.5, it will be EPS of 14. If it is around 4.5 it will be 18.

    We should follow their new developments such as fully operation of their maize project and expansion in export market and their business in the future.

    Remember not only poultry sector but also travel sector also will benefit in the future

    • Financial year ending 31/03/2010

    EPS: 8.15
    P/E: 8.58
    ROE: 25.26
    Market P/E around 22
    Food sector around: 16

    #BFL is massively undervalued.

    Therefore, we can expect ROE over 30 during next financial year.

    We will see strong demand for poultry products during next five years.

    Expected tourist arrival in 2010: Around 600,000
    Expected tourist arrival in 2011: Around 800,000
    Beyond that by 2016 expecting around 2.5 million.
    Demand from North and East
    Segment market for halal product: This segment including new customers from north and east specially will buy halal products. They have protected market for their products.

    Bairaha now introduces a range of pre-cooked marinated chicken products in attractive new packaging. The range includes wings, drumsticks, thighs and whole leg. No hassle, no mess, just delicious gourmet, mouth watering style of chicken in an instant.

    Bairaha Group becomes the largest and leading producer of broiler day-old-chicks.

    They can product the worlds’ most efficient boiler chicks COBB locally

    http://www.cobb-vantress.com/AboutUs/CobbHistory.aspx

    How Cobb has become world leader
    Cobb is the world's oldest poultry breeding company. Beginning in 1916 in Massachusetts, USA, Cobb has developed into the global leader in broiler breeding

    1916: Robert C Cobb Senior buys the Old Pickard Farm in Littleton, Massachusetts, on November 20. Cobb’s Pedigreed Chicks is formed

    2008 New distributors appointed in Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines and Sri Lanka.

    The worlds most efficient

    The world’s most efficient broiler has the lowest feed conversion, best growth rate and an ability to thrive on low density, less costly nutrition. These attributes combine to give the Cobb500™ the competitive advantage of the lowest cost per kilogram or pound of live-weight produced for the growing customer base worldwide.

    The Cobb500™ has:
    • Lowest cost of live weight produced
    • Superior performance on lower cost feed rations
    • Most feed efficient
    • Excellent growth rate
    • Best broiler uniformity for processing
    • Competitive breeder

    This may be one of the reasons to get export orders. Poultry consumption will double in India during next five years.

    Manufacture of value added products have become a lucrative industry with export potential

    In short, both poultry and maize sector will become self-sufficient sooner than later. Then Poultry farmers and maize farmers will benefit in the medium term and long term.

    Finally, almost all the hotels will need more food products such as chicken and egg in the future.



    They should announce their results before 15th of August possibly with their final dividend. Most of the companies will announce their results in the first week of August.

    Remember sometimes we will have volatility when t companies announce that their results as usual and then they go up rapidly.

    #BFL will have much improved results in the coming quarters when compare with corresponding last financial year. #BFL is in a position to increase ROE, EPS during next two financial years.

    Even #TAFL will have improved results in this quarter even though they are fundamentally weak

    Good luck!









    Policy makers clearly said it is a temporary measure and they are going to import 2000 mt out of 3000mt tn and they are going to distribute it from CWE outlets.

    Because they want to safeguard maize, famers while making self sufficient in both maize and poultry.

    Poultry demand is very strong due to opening of roads in north and east, demand for new areas in north and east from restaurants and hotels, form hotel sector etc. They can market all their poultry products and they will have to expand their production due to ever expanding tourist market, local market etc.

    Remember #BFL is the largest boiler chicks maker in SriLanka and they are the leader the industry. In addition, they are getting export orders as well.

    They will have short term , medium term and long term growth.

    Remember I said at least on valuation #BALA should go up.

    BFL has more value than plantation stocks now. It is markets’ number one value

    Finally, we forget about farmland value in TAFL, GRAN AND BFL. We have to revalue now.

    Good luck

    Some recent reply form other members:



    • reply from Rizan, 1 day ago
    • Imports is a temporary issue. Till then as soon #BFl is expanding their production and company. It will be selling its maximum and since demand is more than their production still they will make max profits where the resources are limiting. And mainly the #BFL is the trusted for Halal certified and the best ever market known for the Muslims since it was established. And #BFL owners are my relatives too. At the start when i joined the share market I did not expect it to go up like this. I missed my chance and now i realize it and never thought they will have potential and I purchased #BFL @ Rs.72. And just have a look at the fluctuation of the share price wont go less than Rs.69 bcuz its fundamentally strong so hope for it to go more further. Any ways Good Luck



    • reply from ruckshansilv, 1 day ago
    • Dear all,

    This is a temporary market condition and it is my thought!

    Basically I take this is such a positive news to the poultry industry as it clearly indicates basics principles of economic theory of demand and supply.

    Hence here the situation is about the supply been short and the demand for poultry products increasing day by day. Therefore as allot of senior members had given their thoughts on this industry several months ago, it has basically proved the point so much, that it has come to a stage where Sri Lanka demand on chicken is rapidly increasing.

    I am just putting my simple economic knowledge into this situation and I strongly feel that this sector has huge potential to grow. Anyhow this situation will be temporary and it's unlike big players like #BFL will face any risks / challenges in the longer run.

    I see this market condition as a good opportunity to collect some shares at this stage! Only my thought!

    MarketWatch had replied to this concern in previous post as well, please check following

    http://investnow.lk/2010/07/19/controversy-over-chicken-imports-from-brazil/2345/6569/

    Thanks!
    • reply from MarketWatch, 23 hours ago
    • ROE in the current year around 25. It will go up further during next financial year.

    They will announce much improved results in the coming quarters when compare with corresponding last year

    Poultry consumption will double in India during next five years.

    Remember not only in India and in China, middle class population will in Sri-Lanka as well.

    Tourist Market

    600,000 in 2010
    800,000 in 2011
    Beyond 2012 over million
    Beyond 2015 2.5 million

    North and East market

    Orders from Export market

    Even they can export value added products to India in the future.

    Still poultry farmers supply chicken below Rs.500 per KG despite feed cost. . Good variety of fish is exceeding Rs.1000/- per KG.

    Even if they announce EPS around 2.5 in every quarter, their EPS for next financial year will be around 10. Better than current year.

    If they announce EPS around 3.5, it will be EPS of 14. If it is around 4.5 it will be 18.

    We should follow their new developments such as fully operation of their maize project and expansion in export market and their business in the future.

    Remember not only poultry sector but also travel sector also will benefit in the future


    Good luck!
    ________________________________________
    ________________________________________

    • reply from MarketWatch, 23 hours ago
    • ROE in the current year around 25. It will go up further during next financial year.

    They will announce much improved results in the coming quarters when compare with corresponding last year

    Poultry consumption will double in India during next five years.

    Remember not only in India and in China, middle class population will in Sri-Lanka as well.

    Tourist Market

    600,000 in 2010
    800,000 in 2011
    Beyond 2012 over million
    Beyond 2015 2.5 million

    North and East market

    Orders from Export market

    Even they can export value added products to India in the future.

    Still poultry farmers supply chicken below Rs.500 per KG despite feed cost. . Good variety of fish is exceeding Rs.1000/- per KG.

    Even if they announce EPS around 2.5 in every quarter, their EPS for next financial year will be around 10. Better than current year.

    If they announce EPS around 3.5, it will be EPS of 14. If it is around 4.5 it will be 18.

    We should follow their new developments such as fully operation of their maize project and expansion in export market and their business in the future.

    Remember not only poultry sector but also travel sector also will benefit in the future

    • Financial year ending 31/03/2010

    EPS: 8.15
    P/E: 8.58
    ROE: 25.26
    Market P/E around 22
    Food sector around: 16

    #BFL is massively undervalued.

    Therefore, we can expect ROE over 30 during next financial year.

    We will see strong demand for poultry products during next five years.

    Expected tourist arrival in 2010: Around 600,000
    Expected tourist arrival in 2011: Around 800,000
    Beyond that by 2016 expecting around 2.5 million.
    Demand from North and East
    Segment market for halal product: This segment including new customers from north and east specially will buy halal products. They have protected market for their products.

    Bairaha now introduces a range of pre-cooked marinated chicken products in attractive new packaging. The range includes wings, drumsticks, thighs and whole leg. No hassle, no mess, just delicious gourmet, mouth watering style of chicken in an instant.

    Bairaha Group becomes the largest and leading producer of broiler day-old-chicks.

    They can product the worlds’ most efficient boiler chicks COBB locally

    http://www.cobb-vantress.com/AboutUs/CobbHistory.aspx

    How Cobb has become world leader
    Cobb is the world's oldest poultry breeding company. Beginning in 1916 in Massachusetts, USA, Cobb has developed into the global leader in broiler breeding

    1916: Robert C Cobb Senior buys the Old Pickard Farm in Littleton, Massachusetts, on November 20. Cobb’s Pedigreed Chicks is formed

    2008 New distributors appointed in Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines and Sri Lanka.

    The worlds most efficient

    The world’s most efficient broiler has the lowest feed conversion, best growth rate and an ability to thrive on low density, less costly nutrition. These attributes combine to give the Cobb500™ the competitive advantage of the lowest cost per kilogram or pound of live-weight produced for the growing customer base worldwide.

    The Cobb500™ has:
    • Lowest cost of live weight produced
    • Superior performance on lower cost feed rations
    • Most feed efficient
    • Excellent growth rate
    • Best broiler uniformity for processing
    • Competitive breeder

    This may be one of the reasons to get export orders. Poultry consumption will double in India during next five years.

    Manufacture of value added products have become a lucrative industry with export potential

    In short, both poultry and maize sector will become self-sufficient sooner than later. Then Poultry farmers and maize farmers will benefit in the medium term and long term.

    Finally, almost all the hotels will need more food products such as chicken and egg in the future.



    They should announce their results before 15th of August possibly with their final dividend. Most of the companies will announce their results in the first week of August.

    Remember sometimes we will have volatility when t companies announce that their results as usual and then they go up rapidly.

    #BFL will have much improved results in the coming quarters when compare with corresponding last financial year. #BFL is in a position to increase ROE, EPS during next two financial years.

    Even #TAFL will have improved results in this quarter even though they are fundamentally weak

    Good luck!









    Remember there will be more and more tourist in the coming months. BFL will have to supply more chicken. Poultry farmers will supply more egg.
  • [Updated] #BFL - Still Worth t... reply from ruckshansilv, 26 Jul 10
  • Dear all,

    This is a temporary market condition and it is my thought!

    Basically I take this is such a positive news to the poultry industry as it clearly indicates basics principles of economic theory of demand and supply.

    Hence here the situation is about the supply been short and the demand for poultry products increasing day by day. Therefore as allot of senior members had given their thoughts on this industry several months ago, it has basically proved the point so much, that it has come to a stage where Sri Lanka demand on chicken is rapidly increasing.

    I am just putting my simple economic knowledge into this situation and I strongly feel that this sector has huge potential to grow. Anyhow this situation will be temporary and it's unlike big players like #BFL will face any risks / challenges in the longer run.

    I see this market condition as a good opportunity to collect some shares at this stage! Only my thought!

    MarketWatch had replied to this concern in previous post as well, please check following

    http://investnow.lk/2010/07/19/controversy-over-chicken-imports-from-brazil/2345/6569/

    Thanks!
  • [Updated] #BFL - Still Worth t... reply from Rizan, 26 Jul 10
  • Imports is a temporary issue. Till then as soon #BFl is expanding their production and company. It will be selling its maximum and since demand is more than their production still they will make max profits where the resources are limiting. And mainly the #BFL is the trusted for Halal certified and the best ever market known for the Muslims since it was established. And #BFL owners are my relatives too. At the start when i joined the share market I did not expect it to go up like this. I missed my chance and now i realize it and never thought they will have potential and I purchased #BFL @ Rs.72. And just have a look at the fluctuation of the share price wont go less than Rs.69 bcuz its fundamentally strong so hope for it to go more further. Any ways Good Luck!
  • [Updated] Bull stock today! #... reply from MarketWatch, 25 Jul 10
  • I think we can expect attractive results from the following companies when compare with corresponding last year

    #KGAL
    #HOPL
    #BFL
    #BALA

    Both poultry group and plantation group should do well in this quarter. Even #GRAN and #TAFL will make profits when compare with last year.

    All of the above four have attractive value.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] CSE -ASI 5000 and be... reply from DoctorJV, 25 Jul 10
  • We find those strategies are useful and rational. As you mentioned in your post , “Remember we had great rally in stocks such as #HNB, #COMB, #SAMP, #DOCK, #NTB, #LLUB, #LINV, #SPEN, #HAYC, #PABC, #LFIN, #CFIN, #BFL, #COCO, #HASU, #CMAX, #HAYL, #AHUN” and we agree that all those STX performed well, at times under extremely difficult economic circumstance. Can we expect most of these fundamentally strong Stx to continue perform well in the next 2 to 3 years as well?
  • [Updated] CSE -ASI 5000 and be... reply from MarketWatch, 24 Jul 10
  • • This is how CSE. Lk listed undervalued stocks recently.
    •
    • reply from cse.see, 2 days ago
    • Mostly Under Valued Stocks
    #BFL
    #KGAL
    #BALA

    Under Valued Stocks
    #HAYC
    #KOTA
    #SEYB
    #CLND
    #RICH
    #LFIN
    #CIC
    #STAF
    #NAMU
    #TPL
    #KVAL

    Little-bit Under Valued Stocks
    #LION
    #TAFL
    #EAST
    #DIPD
    #HAYL
    #KCAB
    ________________________________________
    I think we have to add #hopl and #agal as well.

    Even #madu can break Rs.20 barrier.

    In addition, some new members are posting some good quality stocks time to time.

    Definitely, I can see rally in some of the above companies in the coming months. Even now, we can see some rally.

    Remember we had around 10% correction for plantations stocks.

    We should try to find stocks according to our liking, time horizon, experience, skills and knowledge in the industry. There are undervalued stocks in some other groups as well.
    Good luck!
  • [Updated] CSE -ASI 5000 and be... reply from MarketWatch, 23 Jul 10
  • Hi DoctorJV

    Have you noticed if we are intelligent, we can get capital gain from many groups?

    #WATA, #KVAL and #Kgal in the plantation group. Who knows next may be from stock such as #Agal and #HOPL

    #SPEN, #JKH, #HHL and #haly in the diversified group
    All banking stocks
    Finance stocks
    Poultry stocks such as #BFL #GRAN and #TAFL
    Then health stock such as #NHL
    #VLL in the power sector

    What about hot and fundamentally weak stocks. They also went up rapidly.

    However, we should select stocks according to our liking, according to our strategy, time horizon, skills, experience and knowledge in the industry.

    Last year I mentioned list of stocks in this forum and still some stocks have their leg in the market due to attractive value and growth. .

    Hi Greedy

    We cannot tell that market is going to break 6000 at this moment. Once company announces quarterly results market will adjust accordingly. Most probably end of September we can identify next level of the market

    I think we will have to re rate and upgrade some stocks.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] #CLND & #CWM reply from bull, 23 Jul 10
  • Dear Rehan,

    I honestly love this forum because it has helped me a lot to maximize my profits. I have a great honour for you, senior members like MW, pissa6666, WB, cse.see , innam and so on..
    Thus i wanna bring this to your kind attention and for my fellow members' benifit.
    Mr. Sapumal has made couple of post here...i repost all of them for everyone's notice. There are many novices who use this forum to brush up their knowledge about stock market.
    My dear friends..please go thru the posts made by Sapumal in past. Decision is yours...

    Invest for future

    We need to avoid from investing hot stocks like #KGAL,#KOTA,#LCEY,#LFIN,#CWM,#BALA,#HAYL. They are very much overvalued now.
    We need to identify stock which will perform extreamly well in the future. #GREG, #VFIN, #SERV having great potential to grow

    reply from MarketWatch, 5 Apr 10
    Investors should invest in undervalued companies with less debt and strong demand for their products, new markets and strong cash flow in the future.

    Companies with less debt are strong competitors. In difficult economic conditions companies with higher debt if they fail to pay their debt they can become bankrupt.

    Globally many companies with higher debt are struggling and some already became bankrupt. On the other hand, companies with less debt were able to overcome difficult situations and they have become strong competitors now.

    When interest rate goes up companies with higher debt will have to pay more interest as well.

    reply from dnr, 5 Apr 10
    on what basis are you saying LFIN and BALA are overvalued? they have very low PEs and higher than market price NAVs. so how can they be overvalued?
    reply from MarketWatch, 5 Apr 10
    Some of the companies with less debt, lower P/E and strong demand for their products in the CSE are:

    #BALA
    #BFL

    reply from MarketWatch, 5 Apr 10
    Some of the undervalued companies with less debt, lower P/E and strong demand for their products in the CSE are:

    #BFL
    #BALA

    reply from pissa6666, 5 Apr 10
    Sapumal, give the reasons for your recommendation. I hope senior members of this forum will have a different opinion contradictory to this, well supported by many posts in the past.

    I request the members to give their opinion with proper facts and figures/arguments as many are reading this.

    reply from innam, 5 Apr 10
    sapumal seems to be a typical GREG investor. don't worry chaps GREG price will reach 1000 billion rupees very soon.
    #KGAL,#KOTA,#LCEY,#LFIN,#CWM,#BALA,#HAYL will all go bankrupt because they don't own 3.5% of a magic platinum mine and no top secret "reliable sauces" are backing them.
    those given moderater privilages should not approve absurd posts like sapumal's.

    reply from warrenbuffet, 5 Apr 10
    yes ,any post should be supported with reasons and facts.either techinical or fundamental or speculative or any thing .if someone speculate there should be some reason to do that it should be mentioned.

    reply from aattanayake, 5 Apr 10
    I like humor and bit of sarcasm sometimes.
    Couldn't have said any better innam

    reply from sapumal, 5 Apr 10
    What is soooo much interest with ordinary shares like #KGAL,#KOTA,#LCEY,#LFIN,#CWM,#BALA ? Can anyone tell? Low debt? Most of them are typical plantation related companies. They are backed with a creative story so called the ‘potential’
    But,
    GREG will be the next market leader
    VFIN is too much undervalued compared to other financial companies. Most of the analyses hope it will trade above 35 within the first week of trade
    SERV. Find out the comments by the former owner. This will trade above 42 within next 2, 3 months

    reply from innam, 5 Apr 10
    What is soooo much interest with a puffed up speculative share like GREG ? Can anyone tell? low debt? It only owns 3.5% of a platinum mine. It is backed with a creative story by so called "reliable sauces"

    reply from hdasoka, 5 Apr 10
    Any stock should be fundamentally strong to recommend buying it. Some stocks are fundamentally strong but not technically good for some reason. If a stock is fundamentally and technically good, they are the best stocks to buy. If sapumal have some kind of basic knowledge in stock trading he will not tell stocks like,#LCEY,,#HAYL are over valued. First have some study before recommending for others. You have to learn a lot from others in the forum. Otherwise you may be trouble in some time.

    reply from sapumal, 5 Apr 10
    50 billion assets(2015). don't ask what can be done by 50 billion
    whats with others ?

    reply from innam, 5 Apr 10
    50 billion in assets by 2015...so that will make them the market leader in assets.
    50 billion in assets mean nothing if they have to issue 2 billion shares to raise the money....50 billion divided by 2 billion shares mean that each share is worth only 25 rupees. What will happen to your 50 billion target if Lionheart decides not to invest in the rights? What happens if Lionheart goes bankrupt?
    but don't worry with super smart investors like you backing GREG i'm sure the price will reach 1000 billion rupees by 2015.

    reply from sapumal, 5 Apr 10
    At least GREG have a plan to collect 50 billion............
    Why you people ask to invest #KGAL,#KOTA,#LCEY,#LFIN,#CWM,#BALA?
    Still I didn't see/heard any special reason from anybody. May be you guys are searching it now ...... May be those companies will never go bankrupt?
    reply from dnr, 5 Apr 10
    innam, no point trying to teach him investing. he doesn't understand even the difference between total assets and net assets.

    let him learn the lesson the hard way. we need people like him in the market so they will create others buying opportunities when they bring the market down or selling opportunities when they chase stocks

    reply from fair investe, 5 Apr 10
    50 billion. wow !!. They can do so much fun and exciting things. They can buy companies belongs to mother company may be paying 2,3 times than the actual value. Why not, what can't be done by 50 billion and what they need is fun and exciting. But I think they will hold both rights and warrants because possessing them you can have fun.By 50 billion you can do anything but finding 45 billion will not be that much difficult because Lionheart(or related party) already possess the platinum mine.

    ________________________________________________

    For every thing there should be a value.New 1000 note(MR)is worst Rs1000 not Rs10,000 because it is new.

    There are lot of risk in finding 44 billion. May be they will ended up with 44 billion may be not.
    Even they find out it doesn't worst more than 500 billion
    Let's take JKH. They possess assets close to 44 billion. But that's doesn't mean it worst 500 billion ruppes. Currently it is 113 billion
    JKH posses well established subsidaries. But GREG has to start from the bottom.They will has to face the competition by rivals.
    It is almost impossible to create revenue streams within the quick period. If revenue is not attractive demand will be fallen.
    Now the share price very high because floating shares are little. But will be increased with the right,warrants. But if they cannot generate attractive revenue people start to sell.
    Lets say they have .20 (9 months it is .04) EPS(they will not create revenue streams just after find the money. it will take 2,3 years to generate revenue). Also think the share price is 100 their PER is 500. Lets take LCEY or LFIN. It annual EPS is predicted as 25,lfin 11. LCEY PER is 2.5 and for LFIN it is 5. Top economincs, directors,.. will definilty sell GREG share if PER is that much high.
    All the #KGAL,#KOTA,#LCEY,#LFIN,#CWM,#BALA have much much better PER than GREG may be for next 15 years. That's why we are saying to invest on those shares.

    reply from pissa6666, 5 Apr 10
    Then Sampath, now Sapumal (is he a reincarnation of former?)

    They come, they sing GREG song with different tunes....

    Least they know that this forum members are rational, informed and who do not believe in lottery ticket type of speculation.

    Sapumal, you are wasting your valuable time. There are no GREG lovers here. Better find sucker punches elsewhere.....Good Luck for now and ever........
    reply from MarketWatch, 5 Apr 10
    Globally Large companies are more vulnerable now.

    Thanks to financial packages, tax money and support from few top individual they were able to survive. Those who cannot find credit and who had mountain of debt became bankrupt. All were top companies.

    Some top companies went too fast they wanted to acquire almost everything behind their expertise including stock exchanges in other countries, supper and mega markets etc.
    What happened? Some became bankrupt. Some were struggling to sell their super markets through out the world. They could not find even byres. Investors are reluctant to invest in property related companies. No country can go straight up. There will be hiccups down the road. It happened in western countries in 1930s. They had great depression. Similarly, emerging markets will have some volatility during next 10 years.
    Some will affect from currency crisis, gold and next property crisis in Asia.
    Not all mine companies are making attractive profits. Strong competitors can survive in that industry.
    Investors should invest in undervalued companies with less debt and strong demand for their products, new markets and strong cash flow in the future.

    Small companies have big moves. Some small and mid size companies will emerge as winner and future leaders

    During next two decades some neglected sectors, groups will outperform market. Different commodities will have strong demand at different times

    Have a selling strategy as well. Sell crowded stocks before sophisticated and speculators sell their stocks.

    According to their wishes, they can select stocks. Some like to invest in environmentally friendly stocks. Some don’ like to invest in alcohol industries and interest based industries.. Some don’t like to invest in mining related stocks. It is up to the investor to select stocks according their wishes. We have to respect for their beliefs and wishes.

    Don’t invest in overvalued counters.

    I will post more range bound for stocks later.

    reply from mission, 6 Apr 10
    @ Sapumal
    hey u r joking right.... hahahhahahaha.. KOTA, HAYL undervalued....??????

    i think u have GREG, VFIN and SERV in ur portfolio and u r trying to get rid of it,... good try... keep on trying....
    reply from majestic, 6 Apr 10
    This is a forum for serious investors, who do not believe in "fly-by-night" kind of operations.
    If you want to spread or listen to stories, go somewhere else.

    Senior members, thanks for looking out for newbies and safeguarding the forum ethics.

    reply from MarketWatch, 6 Apr 10
    This is the time to invest and trade in massively undervalud counters with great potential.

    They will outperform market during rest of this year and 2011.

    Some undervalued stocks, subgorups and sectors will have bull runs.
    reply from MarketWatch, 6 Apr 10
    Now due to new GLOBAL developments analysts will have to rewrite their research reports again on some companies. Some companies will underperform. Some companies will outperform the market.

    Traders and investors should be more intelligent to select some extremely undervalued bullish stocks in the CSE.

    Some Sri-Lankan companies will benefit lot during second half of this year

    reply from coolc, 6 Apr 10
    sapumal you sounds like you ve invested all ur money on GREG. be careful dude. i still cant believe why people buy this much of heated stocks when there is lot of under value companies.

    [Updated] Vallibel Finance
    Vallibel Finance IPO over-subscribed

    The Vallibel Finance Initial Public Offer (IPO) was closed on the opening day itself thanks to an overwhelming investor response which saw the issue being oversubscribed by many times, the company announced.

    As the name-bearer of the respected Vallibel Group headed by maverick investor Dhammika Perera, the company's entry into the public domain received an enthusiastic response to the initial offering on its first day, now going on the main board of the Colombo Stock Exchange.

    "We are overwhelmed by the investor confidence. An oversubscription by first day speaks volumes of the vast strides we have made in such a short time," said Jayantha Rangamuwa, Managing Director of Vallibel Finance.

    He said that the company would now build on the investor confidence so that shareholders as well as customers may enjoy greater dividends.

    The Vallibel Finance IPO opened to the public on 31 March and was closed on the opening day due to the oversubscription.

    Rangamuwa further stated the share allocation would happen according to the criteria laid down, and that the company is thankful to the investor public for keeping such enormous faith and confidence in Vallibel Finance.

    Vallibel Finance is the pioneer in obtaining their listing on the Colombo Stock Exchange after the Central Bank's regulation requiring finance companies to go public in order to encourage more visibility, transparency and good governance. Final application figures are expected to be announced late as the processing is still underway.

    reply from sapumal, 6 Apr 10
    Sri Lanka finance firm IPO seen as attractively priced
    Mar 24, 2010 (LBO) - An initial public offer of shares by Sri Lanka's Vallibel Finance is seen as being priced to a discount to market given its immediate earnings record, Capital Alliance, the issue's placement agent, said.
    Vallibel Finance seeks to raise 114.4 million rupees by selling 5.2 million shares at 22 rupees each. The issue opens on March 31

    The firm is part of the Vallibel group of entrepreneur Dhammika Perera who is selling down a 25 percent stake through the IPO in the Colombo Stock Exchange's main board.

    In 2009 nearly 60 percent of Vallibel Finance's interest income came from hire purchase business with a large part of lending taken up by motor vehicles.

    Capital Alliance said in its statement that at 22.00 rupees, the IPO is at a Price:Earnings Ratio (PER) of 6.8 times 2011 forecast earnings.

    Capital Alliance said its own valuation at a PER of 9 times 2011 earnings was 29.10 rupees, representing a potential gain of 32 percent.

    "The issue aims to enhance business volumes and reduce the interest rate risk and gap exposure based on its higher leverage capacity after the IPO," the Capital Alliance statement said.

    "In addition, the company hopes to improve credit ratings via a greater solidity in the Balance Sheet to enable the company to access the credit markets."

    The funds raised from the issue will be used to expand the firm's branch network in most of the major towns in the country within the next 24 months.

    This includes opening up branches in the towns of Kandy and Balangoda in the central region.

    "The finance industry has a promising outlook with demand for finance expected to increase with the fall in interest rates and resurgence of the economy," the Capital Alliance statement said.
    reply from sapumal, 6 Apr 10
    *** An initial public offer of shares by Sri Lanka's Vallibel Finance is seen as being priced to a discount to market given its immediate earnings record, Capital Alliance, the issue's placement agent, said.

    *** "We are overwhelmed by the investor confidence. An oversubscription by first day speaks volumes of the vast strides we have made in such a short time,"

    This is the best performing financial company in Sri Lanka......That's why investers are so much confident about VFIN.
    We must be grateful to BOI chairman Mr.Dhammika perera for giving us a great opportunity to be part of his best finance company by issuing shares at highly discounted price. Lot of intelligent and experience investers even sold shares they held in some financial companies to buy VFIN. It seems like lot of people missed the opportunity. Smart investers are still waiting for VFIN. They don’t like to waste money to invest in other financial companies. This share is undervalued bellow 35
    reply from warrenbuffet, 6 Apr 10
    as i think VFIN is a better choice than Greg.

    reply from cse, 7 Apr 10
    Are you crazy sapumal ????
    Is #VFIN best performing financial company in SL?
    I am sure only financial company you might know is #VFIN.
    Just compare #VFIN with #LFIN
  • [Updated] Can you list possibl... reply from MarketWatch, 23 Jul 10
  • Why I love #BFL

    Due to great value with great growth potential during next one year and next five years.

    Pl Try to find stocks according to your liking, time horizon, experience, skills and knowledge in the industry.

    Globally food stocks including poultry stocks will outperform market in 2010 and 2011

    Even top investment banks have stakes in poultry companies

    BFL is the markets’ value gem. It is a food stock. There will be demand for food in bad and good times.

    They have better cost control and account systems. Constantly they win awards for their accounts from institute of chartered accountant in Sri-Lanka

    ROE

    2007
    18.7

    2008 made profit despite global recession when other financial companies, aril lines, product companies, property companies went into bankrupt, receiverships and other hardships.

    ROE
    2009/10
    25.2

    2010/11
    Can expected over 25 minimum

    EPS

    2009/10
    Around 8

    2010/11

    Can expect Over 10 minimum

    P/E ratio

    2009/2010

    Around 8.5

    Massively undervalued

    Demand is strong! Tourist market, new customers for their halal products in north and east and export market

    Largest day chick producer in Sri-Lanka and leader in the group. They can produce world’ the most efficient boiler chicks COBB locally now.

    They are introducing value added products now.

    New developments including maize project

    They are in a position to announce better than expected results when compare with corresponding quarters in the last financial year.

    Particularly poultry group will have improved results in the current quarter.

    Financial year ending 31/03/2010

    EPS: 8.15
    P/E: 8.58
    ROE: 25.26
    Market P/E around 22
    Food sector around: 16

    #BFL is massively undervalued.

    Therefore, we can expect ROE over 25 during next financial year.

    We will see strong demand for poultry products during next five years.

    Expected tourist arrival in 2010: Around 600,000
    Expected tourist arrival in 2011: Around 800,000
    Beyond that by 2016 expecting around 2.5 million.
    Demand from North and East

    Segment market for halal product: This segment including new customers from north and east specially will buy halal products. They have protected market for their products.

    Bairaha now introduces a range of pre-cooked marinated chicken products in attractive new packaging. The range includes wings, drumsticks, thighs and whole leg. No hassle, no mess, just delicious gourmet, mouth watering style of chicken in an instant.

    Bairaha Group becomes the largest and leading producer of broiler day-old-chicks.

    They can product the worlds’ most efficient boiler chicks COBB locally

    http://www.cobb-vantress.com/AboutUs/CobbHistory.aspx

    How Cobb has become world leader
    Cobb is the world's oldest poultry breeding company. Beginning in 1916 in Massachusetts, USA, Cobb has developed into the global leader in broiler breeding

    1916: Robert C Cobb Senior buys the Old Pickard Farm in Littleton, Massachusetts, on November 20. Cobb’s Pedigreed Chicks is formed

    2008 New distributors appointed in Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines and Sri Lanka.

    The worlds most efficient

    The world’s most efficient broiler has the lowest feed conversion, best growth rate and an ability to thrive on low density, less costly nutrition. These attributes combine to give the Cobb500™ the competitive advantage of the lowest cost per kilogram or pound of live-weight produced for the growing customer base worldwide.

    The Cobb500™ has:
    • Lowest cost of live weight produced
    • Superior performance on lower cost feed rations
    • Most feed efficient
    • Excellent growth rate
    • Best broiler uniformity for processing
    • Competitive breeder

    This may be one of the reasons to get export orders. Poultry consumption will double in India during next five years.

    Manufacture of value added products have become a lucrative industry with export potential

    In short, both poultry and maize sector will become self-sufficient sooner than later. Then Poultry farmers and maize farmers will benefit in the medium term and long term.

    Finally, almost all the hotels will need more food products such as chicken and egg in the future.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Can you list possibl... reply from coolc, 22 Jul 10
  • #KOTA #SEYB #SINS #HNB #LLUB is in my list...

    #BFL i have same doubts... i also feel that they did their best last quarter/year and might this quarter will not good as them.. but still this price is Worth.

    when comparing KGAL and KOTA i go with KOTA now it is more undervalued it seems.
  • [Updated] Can you list possibl... reply from cse.see, 22 Jul 10
  • #BFL & #KGAL :
    Both companies year ended 31st March & they did maximum (in my experience) in their last quarter. My doubt is, will they perform in maximum in their 1st quarter...?
    I think #BFL will have between 45 - 55 Mn Profits & #KGAL may be arround 185 -200 Mn....(This is my prediction for this quarter with my experience).
  • [Updated] Can you list possibl... reply from cse.see, 22 Jul 10
  • I think #KGAL, #BFL, #KOTA, #HAYC, #BALA, #CLND, #SEYB, #RICH may be bullish stocks in coming weeks. Investors are expecting higher results from above companies.

    But, I have little bit doubt with #BFL & #KGAL coming results. Last 04 / 05 quarters both performed very very well. In a raw, we saw a clear quarter on quarter growth.

    #BFL - 31.03.2010 quarter profits – 71 Mn
    #KGAL - 31.03.2010 quarter profits - 237 Mn

    But, if #BFL announced below 70 Mn & #KGAL announced below 235 Mn Profits for 30.06.2010 quarter, then both share prices will little bit come down during July’2010. (At the year end 2010/11, it may be more than 2009/10).
  • [Updated] Under Valued Stocks reply from cse.see, 21 Jul 10
  • Mostly Under Valued Stocks
    #BFL
    #KGAL
    #BALA

    Under Valued Stocks
    #HAYC
    #KOTA
    #SEYB
    #CLND
    #RICH
    #LFIN
    #CIC
    #STAF
    #NAMU
    #TPL
    #KVAL

    Little-bit Under Valued Stocks
    #LION
    #TAFL
    #EAST
    #DIPD
    #HAYL
    #KCAB
  • [Updated] Controversy over chi... reply from MarketWatch, 19 Jul 10
  • They should announce their results before 15th of August possibly with their final dividend. Most of the companies will announce their results in the first week of August.

    Remember sometimes we will have volatility when t companies announce that their results as usual and then they go up rapidly.

    #BFL will have much improved results in the coming quarters when compare with corresponding last financial year. #BFL is in a position to increase ROE, EPS during next two financial years.

    Even #TAFL will have improved results in this quarter even though they are fundamentally weak

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Controversy over chi... reply from MarketWatch, 19 Jul 10
  • Financial year ending 31/03/2010

    EPS: 8.15
    P/E: 8.58
    ROE: 25.26
    Market P/E around 22
    Food sector around: 16

    #BFL is massively undervalued.

    Therefore, we can expect ROE over 30 during next financial year.

    We will see strong demand for poultry products during next five years.

    Expected tourist arrival in 2010: Around 600,000
    Expected tourist arrival in 2011: Around 800,000
    Beyond that by 2016 expecting around 2.5 million.
    Demand from North and East
    Segment market for halal product: This segment including new customers from north and east specially will buy halal products. They have protected market for their products.

    Bairaha now introduces a range of pre-cooked marinated chicken products in attractive new packaging. The range includes wings, drumsticks, thighs and whole leg. No hassle, no mess, just delicious gourmet, mouth watering style of chicken in an instant.

    Bairaha Group becomes the largest and leading producer of broiler day-old-chicks.

    They can product the worlds’ most efficient boiler chicks COBB locally

    http://www.cobb-vantress.com/AboutUs/CobbHistory.aspx

    How Cobb has become world leader
    Cobb is the world's oldest poultry breeding company. Beginning in 1916 in Massachusetts, USA, Cobb has developed into the global leader in broiler breeding

    1916: Robert C Cobb Senior buys the Old Pickard Farm in Littleton, Massachusetts, on November 20. Cobb’s Pedigreed Chicks is formed

    2008 New distributors appointed in Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines and Sri Lanka.

    The worlds most efficient

    The world’s most efficient broiler has the lowest feed conversion, best growth rate and an ability to thrive on low density, less costly nutrition. These attributes combine to give the Cobb500™ the competitive advantage of the lowest cost per kilogram or pound of live-weight produced for the growing customer base worldwide.

    The Cobb500™ has:
    • Lowest cost of live weight produced
    • Superior performance on lower cost feed rations
    • Most feed efficient
    • Excellent growth rate
    • Best broiler uniformity for processing
    • Competitive breeder

    This may be one of the reasons to get export orders. Poultry consumption will double in India during next five years.

    Manufacture of value added products have become a lucrative industry with export potential

    In short, both poultry and maize sector will become self-sufficient sooner than later. Then Poultry farmers and maize farmers will benefit in the medium term and long term.

    Finally, almost all the hotels will need more food products such as chicken and egg in the future.
  • [Updated] Controversy over chi... reply from cse.see, 19 Jul 10
  • Share your Views....
    1. Will it effected to #BFL....?
    2. Will #BFL share price come down...?
    3. Why is this..... for high demand & low supply or other reason...?
    4. What will be the predicted #BFL Profit/EPS for 30.06.2010 quarter...?
    5. Is there any growth (earnings) during this quarter...? Why...?
  • [Updated] Which stock will be ... reply from chinwi, 18 Jul 10
  • #BFL is a highest risk & return type broiler chicken. No one would put it in the same basket with golden eggs like #KHL, #SEYB or #MBSL ! :-)
  • [Updated] Which groups and sto... reply from SISA, 17 Jul 10
  • Next property sector rally specially #OSEA#EAST.Both are fundamentally sound stocks. In this year end WTC income may come to peak because no security threat. Lot of people comes to Colombo for living so Havelock city income will rise. Please anybody can explain east activities?
    In hotel sector #KHL because their all the hotels will operate near future.Moldives hotels may be more profitable because no recession. They are future earning capacity very high.
    #DIALS in telecom sector.
    #BFL in food and beverage sector

    Thanks
  • [Updated] Fundamentally strong... reply from cse.see, 15 Jul 10
  • Under my radar - Fundamentally Strong stocks are #BFL, #KGAL, #KOTA, #LFIN, #HAYC, #DIPD, #HAYL.
    Monitor that #BFL & #HAYC will announce more than 5.0 of EPS for 30.06.2010 end quarter.
  • [Updated] #HNB.X reply from MarketWatch, 14 Jul 10
  • Hi Don.Senaka
    Current market is very good for experienced and those who above average knowledge.
    Then even those who less knowledge also will have some capital gain? Do you know how? Recently I spoke to my community-oriented friend. He said I bought Seylan Bank at Rs.9/-, NTB at Rs.9. He has bought all low value stocks thinking all will go up. He is right. He has thought NTB warrants not as warrants but as but as NTB shares. Now NTB w trading above Rs.25 and SEYB(x) around Rs.44.
    Both are two of the top performers. However, I explained him risk, return on warrants, and advised him to learn as much as possible.
    I never give advice on buying and selling stocks. Only I analyse stocks. Remember we cannot win all the times. However if we can find one great stock we can have one of the biggest capital gain in the medium term and long term. Sometimes stocks will end up with more than 10 baggers.
    Many sold both #LFIN and #BFL too early without analyzing trend, pattern. These two stocks had some value and some panicked and sold recently.
    Now LFIN broke even Rs.150 barrier.
    For me #BFL is the number one markets’ value gem now. For me it is an aggressive powerful buy in the current market when compare with other stocks.
    Pl do not depend on tips, paper news, rumors, news, order book etc. Depend on the future earnings.
    Sometimes when short-term traders try to buy and sell stocks within the short period some stocks can come down. We have to wait until they leave and then we should buy aggressively.
    No stocks will go straight up and down. It is same for HNB(X). There are other reasons as well.
    In a major uptrend, some stocks will consolidate in different places and will build base. After that, they will go up gradually and systematically.
    Remember there will be pullbacks for some stocks time to time. That is the time to buy some attractive stocks after studying market pattern carefully.
    Now foreigners are buying more stocks. Surprisingly market is not coming down like in the past.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] Can you list four po... reply from cse.see, 13 Jul 10
  • #BFL
    Current share Price : Rs.71/-
    Last F/Y(12 months) Profits : 130 Mn
    No of Shares : 16 Mn
    EPS : 8.2
    P/E (trading as at now) : 8.7 (Compare to Food Sector PE of 16.3, This is mostly undervalue)
    Market PE : 21
    ROE% : 22.6
    Important:
    * Last few weeks stable in Rs.70/- levels. Lots of people collected.
    * My assumption is this quarter Profits can be exceed 80 Mn & then EPS more than 5.0 because of Demand of chicken.
    * I noticed #BFL price has not come down even market coming down.


    #KGAL
    Current share Price : Rs.88/-
    Last F/Y(12 months) Profits : 366 Mn
    No of Shares : 25 Mn
    EPS : 15
    P/E (trading as at now) : 5.8
    Plantation Sector PE : 11.2
    Market PE : 21
    ROE% : 21.4
    Important:
    * Last few weeks lots of collected at Rs.75/- levels. Then stock will hit Rs.88/- to 90/-.
    * My assumption is this quarter Profits can be exceed 250 Mn & then EPS more than 10.0 because of recently increase of world market rubber prices.
    * I noticed #KGAL price also not come down even market coming down.


    #LFIN – LB Finance
    Current Share Price : Rs.155/-
    Last 12 months Profits : 500 Mn
    Shares : 34 Mn
    ROE% : 29
    EPS : 15
    Important:
    * My assumption is this quarter Profits can be exceed 250 Mn & then EPS more than 7.0 because of NE expansions & recently develop in leasing sector.
    * I noticed recently #LFIN price increased more than 50%.


    #KOTA
    Current share Price : Rs.66/-
    Last F/Y(12 months) Profits : 377 Mn
    No of Shares : 32 Mn
    EPS : 12
    P/E (trading as at now) : 5.5
    Plantation Sector PE : 11.2
    Market PE : 21
    ROE% : 20.5
    Important:
    * Last few weeks stable at Rs.66/- levels. Announced dividend Of Rs.3/-
    * My assumption is this quarter Profits can be exceed 250 Mn & then EPS more than 7.0 because of recently increase of world market rubber prices & Good higher price for Tea.
  • [Updated] What is your top pri... reply from MarketWatch, 11 Jul 10
  • Can you pick the most attractive stocks from the following list and why?

    #JKH
    #COMB
    #HNB
    #SAMP
    #SPEN
    #HAYL
    #BFL
    #HAYC
    #HDFC
    #CFIN
    #HAYL
    #HHL

    Thanks.
  • [Updated] #TAFL reply from MarketWatch, 11 Jul 10
  • This is what CSE. SEE said on #BFL
    • IMPORTANT ***
    EPS as at 31.03.2010 = 8.15
    Sector average P/E Ratio = 14.0 or more
    Share Price to Adjust = 8.15 x 14 = Rs.112/-
    If you go company level P/E is = 9.5 or more
    Then, Share Price to Adjust = 8.15 x = Rs.80/-
    Time to time there will be some momentums for some stocks. Stocks such as OSEA, GRAN and TAFL have become momentum stocks now.
    I think both GRAN and TAFL will have some improvements in their earnings when compare with corresponding last year.
    I prefer fundamentally sound stocks.
    More news in poultry group!

    #GRAN has increase profits and turnover

    Their sister company #TAFL also has made small profit even though they have accumulated losses.

    Group has reported a net profit of Rs.0.52 Mn during the 1st quarter of 2010 as compared to a net loss of Rs.82.19 Mn reported in the 1st quarter of 2009.

    I think we can expect better results from poultry group in the future.

    Because policy makers took, action to increase control price of chicken and took action to control maize price at end of March 2010
    #BFL is clear winner, current leader and future leader in the group. Their success story will continue further.
    We should not pay much attention to BFL is going to Rs.70 breaking Rs.63 barrier and going above Rs.80/- now.

    We should study their new developments, future developments, whether they can maintain higher ROE not only during next 2 financial years but also during next five years. We also should study their sales growth, market growth including their export market, tourist market etc. In addition, we should study their cash flow and lowering of their debt further .

    If we can see great growth in this company, we should accumulate during next 12 months whenever we see correct value.

    .If BFL announce more EPS of more than 5 there will be great demand for this stock.

    Sometimes BFL will announce EPS of more than 6. Because policy makers took, action to increase control price of chicken and took action to control maize price at end of March 2010. Therefore, BFL should benefit. In addition, they are introducing value added products. In December, quarter they will have one of the best quarterly results may be the best due to increased tourist season.

    When compare with corresponding last financial year Bairah Farms in a position announce above average results and attractive results in the next financial year.. In the current financial year, their EPS is over 8. Market P/ E around 8. Trading below the P/E ratio of undervalued group and market P/E.

    ROE over 22. Next year all ratios will go higher and higher. Their cash flow will improve further. We will see strong balance sheet.

    I think more than quarterly results we should analyse their future potential, earnings, market share, demand new developments etc. Then we can accumulate stocks that are more attractive.

    Good luck.
  • [Updated] #TAFL reply from bull, 11 Jul 10
  • Mr. MarketWatch,

    How do you define the share price movement of #BFL vs #GRAN & #TAFL.
    I ve heard #GRAN & #TAFL under same management. There should be a corelation definetely between these two. Do you think #GRAN & #TAFL overvalued.
  • [Updated] Need help.......... reply from CSEInvestor, 11 Jul 10
  • TRUE.........look at something like #BFL #JKH as long term investments.

    When you start off remember to have investments in the long term, medium and short term
  • [Updated] #TAFL reply from bull, 10 Jul 10
  • #BFL will continue its uptrend journey in 1 or 2 weeks time. When it reaches higher levels #GRAN and #TAFL will definetly move up. #GRAN did really well in the past. Me too monitoring these three shares very closely. Hopefully we ll be able to see the well improved financial statements very soon.
  • [Updated] As at 30.06.2010 qua... reply from MarketWatch, 10 Jul 10
  • BFL can produce locally the world’s most efficient boilers chicks now. Their bottom line improved from January due to these new Cobb boiler chicks. When they distribute chicken, they cannot get the market price. They have to distribute at a standard price to retail shops, hotels and supermarkets. Still they were able to mange their business efficiently and effectively.

    In March government, increased control price of chicken in addition to they took action to bring down maize price buy controlling maize price. These steps also will benefit #BFL and other poultry farmers. We can expect higher earnings for BFL in the next quarter.

    In the recent past, taxi driver told my friend somebody came and purchased lorry load of chicken from ARPICO super market. I think it may be to sell at higher prices in the secondary market. Some speculators are trading in chicken market as well

    It is good now that BAIRHA is adding value added products to their existing product line. They can increase their profit further now.

    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/focus/cobb/59/cobb-500-the-worlds-most-efficient

    Cobb500™
    The worlds most efficient

    The world’s most efficient broiler has the lowest feed conversion, best growth rate and an ability to thrive on low density, less costly nutrition. These attributes combine to give the Cobb500™ the competitive advantage of the lowest cost per kilogram or pound of live-weight produced for the growing customer base worldwide.
    The Cobb500™ has:
    • Lowest cost of live weight produced
    • Superior performance on lower cost feed rations
    • Most feed efficient
    • Excellent growth rate
    • Best broiler uniformity for processing
    • Competitive breeder

    http://www.cobb-vantress.com/AboutUs/CobbHistory.aspx

    How Cobb has become world leader

    Cobb is the world's oldest poultry breeding company. Beginning in 1916 in Massachusetts, USA, Cobb has developed into the global leader in broiler breeding
  • [Updated] Why this strange beh... reply from MarketWatch, 10 Jul 10
  • Hi Greedy.

    BFL can produce locally the world’s most efficient boilers chicks now. Their bottom line improved from January due to these new Cobb boiler chicks. When they distribute chicken, they cannot get the market price. They have to distribute at a standard price to retail shops, hotels and supermarkets. Still they were able to mange their business efficiently and effectively.

    In March government, increased control price of chicken in addition to they took action to bring down maize price buy controlling maize price. These steps also will benefit #BFL and other poultry farmers. We can expect higher earnings for BFL in the next quarter.

    In the recent past, taxi driver told my friend somebody came and purchased lorry load of chicken from ARPICO super market. I think it may be to sell at higher prices in the secondary market. Some speculators are trading in chicken market as well

    It is good now that BAIRHA is adding value added products to their existing product line. They can increase their profit further now.

    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/focus/cobb/59/cobb-500-the-worlds-most-efficient

    Cobb500™
    The worlds most efficient

    The world’s most efficient broiler has the lowest feed conversion, best growth rate and an ability to thrive on low density, less costly nutrition. These attributes combine to give the Cobb500™ the competitive advantage of the lowest cost per kilogram or pound of live-weight produced for the growing customer base worldwide.
    The Cobb500™ has:
    • Lowest cost of live weight produced
    • Superior performance on lower cost feed rations
    • Most feed efficient
    • Excellent growth rate
    • Best broiler uniformity for processing
    • Competitive breeder

    http://www.cobb-vantress.com/AboutUs/CobbHistory.aspx

    How Cobb has become world leader

    Cobb is the world's oldest poultry breeding company. Beginning in 1916 in Massachusetts, USA, Cobb has developed into the global leader in broiler breeding.

    Expect Range bound Market in 2011 just like India!

    We should apply range bound strategy in 2011. Medium term and long term intelligent investors should not worry much If they have selected correct stocks.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] As at 30.06.2010 qua... reply from MarketWatch, 10 Jul 10
  • More about poultry stocks!

    There may be down market, sideway market, up market, strong bull trend and correction time to time.

    However, globally some stocks such as selected poultry stocks, restaurant stocks and car renting are outperforming despite volatility. Food stocks especially some global poultry stocks will outperform broad market in 2010 and 2011.
    Investment world is ever changing. Even top investment banks want to buy some poultry and meat companies globally and there will be huge demand for poultry stocks in the coming years

    Another Eg:

    http://www.streetinsider.com/Upgrades/J.P.+Morgan+Upgrades+Sanderson+Farms+(SAFM)+to+Overweight/5608834.html

    J.P. Morgan Upgrades Sanderson Farms (SAFM) to Overweight
    J.P. Morgan upgrades Sanderson Farms (Nasdaq: SAFM) from Neutral to

    Overweight. PT increased from $57 to $65.

    Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Sanderson Farms) is a fully integrated poultry processing company engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of fresh and frozen chicken products.
    In addition, top independent analysts recommend few poultry stocks as strong buy now.

    Globally most of the time Markets may be down or volatility from May. However, Demand for top poultry stocks are increasing gradually. Some well-managed poultry companies will have rapid earnings potential due to new developments.
    http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2010/07/07/stock-buy-sanderson-farms-inc/

    Stock Buy: Sanderson Farms Inc.
    As it stands, it is already pretty cheap, trading at just 9x forward earnings, well under the industry average of 14.1 and easily in the range of a traditional “value” stock

    Sanderson Farms Surprised By 12.5% in the Fiscal Second Quarter

    On May 25, Sanderson Farms reported its fiscal 2010 second quarter results and it was another quarter of surprising on the estimate

    Earnings per share were $1.62 compared to the Zacks Consensus of $1.44 per share. The company made just $1.25 in the fiscal 2009 second quarter.
    You can see that the company has put together quite an earnings surprise streak, beating in the last 7 quarters

    Value Fundamentals
    Sanderson Farms has some good value credentials in addition to its cheap P/E ratio. It has a price-to-book ratio of 2 which is inline with its industry and also within the value parameters.
    The price-to-sales ratio is just 0.6, under the industry average of 0.8.
    Over the last 5 years, Sanderson Farms has averaged a solid return on equity (ROE) of 11%.

    Sanderson Farms is a Zacks #1 Rank (strong buy) stock.


    Remember #BFL will have ROE more than 20 not only in the current financial year
    but also in also next financial year. What a gem?

    More attractive global poultry stocks trading in Asia and more news on poultry group later.


    Good luck
  • [Updated] As at 30.06.2010 qua... reply from MarketWatch, 10 Jul 10
  • What about some of the markets’ gems and future gems such as #BFL and #COMB

    I think both will have EPS more than 5. At least around 5. During last quarter, they were managed to announce EPS more than 4.

    Sometimes BFL will announce EPS of more than 6. Because policy makers took, action to increase control price of chicken and took action to control maize price at end of March 2010. Therefore, BFL should benefit. In addition, they are introducing value added products. In December quarter they will have one of the best quarterly results may be the best due to increased tourist season.

    When compare with corresponding last financial year Bairah Farms in a position announce above average results and attractive results in the next financial year.. In the current financial year, their EPS is over 8. Market P/ E around 8. Trading below the P/E ratio of undervalued group and market P/E.

    ROE over 22. Next year all ratios will go higher and higher. Their cash flow will improve further. We will see strong balance sheet.

    I think more than quarterly results we should analyse their future potential, earnings, market share, demand new developments etc. Then we can accumulate stocks that are more attractive.

    Therefore, I consider #BFL as markets’ number one value gem. Globally food stocks will outperform market in 2010 and 2011. Even now, there is a demand for well-managed poultry stocks despite market volatility and they are trading above the share price of some of the top banks in the world.

    For example, some of the poultry stocks in US dollar terms trading above $15. Some well managed poultry companies trading above $50. Banks are trading below $15 except few.

    Top analysts and top research groups are recommending as strong buy for some global poultry stocks now.

    Time to time some groups and stocks will outperform other stocks and groups.

    There will be more volatility in global markets due to short-term instruments, short-term players and short-term downgrades. When so called some tech analysts downgrade some stocks with great potential almost every month some intelligent players get great opportunities to buy some value gems. When powerful research group and analyst try to upgrade stocks as strong buy these stocks will have great run. This is happening in the global market now.

    We should never sell future winning stocks with intermediate and long term up trend.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] ROE among companies reply from MarketWatch, 9 Jul 10
  • Both #NEST and #BFL have higher ROE.

    #BFL will have much improved ROE in the next financial year as well.

    We should go with future numbers.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Why this strange beh... reply from MarketWatch, 9 Jul 10
  • Hi Sahikanwar

    They have not done any sale of assets. They will have to revalue their farmland now.

    There is an asset play in addition to markets’ value gem. Their farmland can be described as hidden assets. Particularly their Trincomale land should revalue massively now. According to their last annual report, they are hoping to start their maize project in this land. Do not know by now their limited operations have expanded to fully operations.

    If it operate fully #BFL will break Rs.200 barrier in the coming years. Remember former leader in the group #GRAN traded above Rs.200/-. BFL current leader, emerging leader and future leader can do it.

    Once they publish their audited current annual report we can get more details on their new developments, cost control, less debt and earnings etc.

    Pl looks for attractive earnings, less debt, positive cash flow from coming quarterly results. We can expect double digit ROE and EPS in the next financial year. Only few stocks will have such an attractive ROE.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Five special stocks ... reply from cse.see, 8 Jul 10
  • If assume 2010/11 1st quarter (end 30.06.2010) #BFL Profits 80 Mn. (Possibal because 31.03.2010 quarter their Profits 70 Mn).
    Then EPS 1st quarter be = 80 /16 = 5.0
    Annualized it = 5 x 4 quarters = 20 or more.
    With the current trend seems to be it can achivabal.
    If happend .... What will be the Share Price....?
    With the current trend = EPS 20 x PE 9 = Rs.180/-
    This Financial year more important for #BFL.
  • [Updated] Five special stocks ... reply from MarketWatch, 8 Jul 10
  • More on #BFL

    Date: 2010-03-20

    We are the largest

    Bairaha Group becomes the largest and leading producer of broiler day-old-chicks.

    Bairaha Farms PLC. is the pioneer quality chicken producer in Sri Lanka. Bairaha Farms PLC. and its subsidiary companies are engaged in integrated poultry production including in the processing of chicken and value added production of meat and production of broiler day-old-chicks. Bairaha is the pioneer, large scale, Halal chicken processor.

    Bairaha now introduces a range of pre-cooked marinated chicken products in attractive new packaging. The range includes wings, drumsticks, thighs and whole leg. No hassle, no mess, just delicious gourmet, mouth watering style of chicken in an instant.

    Group Activities

    The core activities of the Group are vertically integrated poultry farming, chicken processing and manufacturing of pre-cooked meats and in particular of the followings.

    •Breeding poultry and operating of hatcheries for the production and sales of both parent and commercial broiler day-old-chicks.
    •Operating hundreds of outgrower farms as well as few large scale own broiler farms.
    •Processing, distributing and selling of packeted whole broiler chicken and broiler chicken portions (cut-ups).
    •Manufacturing, distributing and selling of pre-cooked meats including chicken sausages, chicken meat balls, chicken sandwich slices and marinated chicken.
    •Importing and distributing, as the exclusive local agent, the world-renowned ‘Antec’ brand disinfectants from DuPont Animal Health Solutions of USA.
    •Marketing and selling of other products for poultry farming, including sales of hypromeal (produced by recycling the by-products of poultry processing) to feed millers.

    Date: 2009-11-20
    Award for Annual Report

    Bairaha Farms PLC. wins the Bronze award of the annual report in the Food & Beverage sector in the Annual Report Award Competition 2009 organized by Institute of Charted Accountants of Sri Lanka
  • [Updated] Five special stocks ... reply from cse.see, 8 Jul 10
  • Dear All,
    Carefully analyze above my Post.
    You can see, #WATA & #NEST past few years performed very very well. Earnings very high. ROE is very high.
    Therefore, both companies are trading with higher PE . It's more than of their respective sectors PE.

    #BFL & #KGAL are recently performing very very well.
    Both will have to adjust accordingly.
    #BFL & #KGAL are real gems.
  • [Updated] Five special stocks ... reply from cse.see, 8 Jul 10
  • #BFL
    Current share Price : Rs.70/-
    Last F/Y(12 months) Profits : 130 Mn
    No of Shares : 16 Mn
    EPS : 8.2
    P/E (trading as at now) : 8.7
    Food Sector PE : 16.3
    Market PE : 21
    ROE% : 22.6

    #KVAL
    Current share Price : Rs.100/-
    First 03 months Profits : 112 Mn (if Annualized 2010/11 - 448 Mn)
    No of Shares : 34 Mn
    EPS : 13 (Annualized)
    P/E (trading as at now) : 7.7
    Plantation Sector PE : 11.2
    Market PE : 21
    ROE% : 7.4

    #KGAL
    Current share Price : Rs.88/-
    Last F/Y(12 months) Profits : 366 Mn
    No of Shares : 25 Mn
    EPS : 15
    P/E (trading as at now) : 5.8
    Plantation Sector PE : 11.2
    Market PE : 21
    ROE% : 21.4

    #NEST
    Current share Price : Rs.640/-
    Last F/Y(12 months) Profits : 1597 Mn
    No of Shares : 54 Mn
    EPS : 30
    P/E (trading as at now) : 21
    Food Sector PE : 16.3
    Market PE : 21
    ROE% : 70.6

    #WATA
    Current share Price : Rs.235/-
    Last F/Y(12 months) Profits : 430 Mn
    No of Shares : 23.7Mn
    EPS : 18
    P/E (trading as at now) : 13
    Plantation Sector PE : 11.2
    Market PE : 21
    ROE% : 21
  • [Updated] Barriers reply from MarketWatch, 8 Jul 10
  • Barriers:

    Rs.83, Rs.93.75, Rs.100/- Rs.112.75 for #BFL
    If BFL break Rs.112.75, Rs120 will be their psychological barrier. Their medium term and long-term barriers are much higher due to new developments.
    Rs.90 and Rs.100 for #KGAL
    Rs.100, Rs.110 , Rs.120, Rs.130 for #KVAL


    I expected breaking Rs.100 barrier for plantains stocks at the beginning of this year.

    We should go behind markets value gems now.


    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Guess who's back? reply from cse.see, 8 Jul 10
  • Agree...
    to me #KGAL & #BFL real gems.
    Simple : With the strong results of Watawala finally break Rs.235/- now.
    #KGAL & #BFL both will follow like this, comming months.
  • [Updated] Barriers reply from cse.see, 8 Jul 10
  • #KGAL - between Rs.96/- & 102/-
    #KOTA - between Rs.79/- & Rs.86/-
    #BFL - between Rs.83/- & Rs.89/-
    #KVAL - Rs.110/-
  • [Updated] Guess who's back? reply from MarketWatch, 8 Jul 10
  • Now ODEL has oversubscribed by more than 15 times.

    If somebody has applied for 100,000 shares, in percentage wise, he should get around 6500 shares. Balance money will come back to some other assets.

    I do not depend on order books, charts, rumours, paper advertisements, support and resistance levels etc.

    I depend on my own tortoise pattern, great value, good business model, future earnings and other important factors. My market barriers also important to me.

    Pl learns to prepare for group, stocks and sector oriented bull markets during next 21 months.

    Always buy next most bullish stocks and groups keeping your valuable gems. Some will become more than 10 baggars in the future.

    I noticed some members here have become more than 10 baggers by keeping few valuable stocks.

    We should learn not to pass risk to somebody by disposing overvalued and hot stocks.

    Didn’t I tell that #KVAL would break again Rs.100/- barrier?

    One thing I want to mention here. There are five special stocks. #BFL, #SPEN, #KVAL, #KGAL, #NEST and #WATA. They have two specific bull factors in the current major uptrend.

    On valuation, ROE, less debt, attractive earnings and market expansion #BFL is more attractive now. They will have their best results in their business life in the above areas during next fiancée year. When arrival of tourists increase to around 2.5 million beyond 2012 you can see how much potential they will have in the coming years in addition to demand from north and east, local market, local halal market and export market.


    As I expected #KVAL broke Rs.100 barrier again. We can expect breaking new barriers for #KGAL, #BALA and #BFL as well.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] Is this the moment o... reply from MarketWatch, 8 Jul 10
  • Now ODEL has oversubscribed by more than 15 times.

    If somebody has applied for 100,000 shares, in percentage wise, he should get around 6500 shares. Balance money will come back to some other assets.

    I do not depend on order books, charts, rumours, paper advertisements, support and resistance levels etc.

    I depend on my own tortoise pattern, great value, good business model, future earnings and other important factors. My market barriers also important to me.

    Pl learns to prepare for group, stocks and sector oriented bull markets during next 21 months.

    Always buy next most bullish stocks and groups keeping your valuable gems. Some will become more than 10 baggars in the future.

    I noticed some members here have become more than 10 baggers by keeping few valuable stocks.

    We should learn not to pass risk to somebody by disposing overvalued and hot stocks.

    Didn’t I tell that #KVAL would break again Rs.100/- barrier?

    One thing I want to mention here. There are five special stocks. #BFL, #SPEN, #KVAL, #KGAL, #NEST and #WATA. They have two specific bull factors in the current major uptrend.

    On valuation, ROE, less debt, attractive earnings and market expansion #BFL is more attractive now. They will have their best results in their business life in the above areas during next fiancée year. When arrival of tourists increase to around 2.5 million beyond 2012 you can see how much potential they will have in the coming years in addition to demand from north and east, local market, local halal market and export market.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] Euphoria reply from MarketWatch, 8 Jul 10
  • Now ODEL has oversubscribed by more than 15 times.

    If somebody has applied for 100,000 shares, in percentage wise, he should get around 6500 shares. Balance money will come back to some other assets.

    I do not depend on order books, charts, rumours, paper advertisements, support and resistance levels etc.

    I depend on my own tortoise pattern, great value, good business model, future earnings and other important factors. My market barriers also important to me.

    Pl learns to prepare for group, stocks and sector oriented bull markets during next 21 months.

    Always buy next most bullish stocks and groups keeping your valuable gems. Some will become more than 10 baggars in the future.

    I noticed some members here have become more than 10 baggers by keeping few valuable stocks.

    We should learn not to pass risk to somebody by disposing overvalued and hot stocks.

    Didn’t I tell that #KVAL would break again Rs.100/- barrier?

    One thing I want to mention here. There are five special stocks. #BFL, #SPEN, #KVAL, #KGAL, #NEST and #WATA. They have two specific bull factors in the current major uptrend.

    On valuation, ROE, less debt, attractive earnings and market expansion #BFL is more attractive now. They will have their best results in their business life in the above areas during next fiancée year. When arrival of tourists increase to around 2.5 million beyond 2012 you can see how much potential they will have in the coming years in addition to demand from north and east, local market, local halal market and export market.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] Huge opportunity reply from MarketWatch, 8 Jul 10
  • Now ODEL has oversubscribed by more than 15 times.

    If somebody has applied for 100,000 shares, in percentage wise, he should get around 6500 shares. Balance money will come back to some other assets.

    I do not depend on order books, charts, rumours, paper advertisements, support and resistance levels etc.

    I depend on my own tortoise pattern, great value, good business model, future earnings and other important factors. My market barriers also important to me.

    Pl learns to prepare for group, stocks and sector oriented bull markets during next 21 months.

    Always buy next most bullish stocks and groups keeping your valuable gems. Some will become more than 10 baggars in the future.

    I noticed some members here have become more than 10 baggers by keeping few valuable stocks.

    We should learn not to pass risk to somebody by disposing overvalued and hot stocks.

    Didn’t I tell that #KVAL would break again Rs.100/- barrier?

    One thing I want to mention here. There are five special stocks. #BFL, #SPEN, #KVAL, #KGAL, #NEST and #WATA. They have two specific bull factors in the current major uptrend.

    On valuation, ROE, less debt, attractive earnings and market expansion #BFL is more attractive now. They will have their best results in their business life in the above areas during next fiancée year. When arrival of tourists increase to around 2.5 million beyond 2012 you can see how much potential they will have in the coming years in addition to demand from north and east, local market, local halal market and export market.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] Again tomorrow marke... reply from MarketWatch, 8 Jul 10
  • Now ODEL has oversubscribed by more than 15 times.

    If somebody has applied for 100,000 shares, in percentage wise, he should get around 6500 shares. Balance money will come back to some other assets.

    I do not depend on order books, charts, rumours, paper advertisements, support and resistance levels etc.

    I depend on my own tortoise pattern, great value, good business model, future earnings and other important factors. My market barriers also important to me.

    Pl learns to prepare for group, stocks and sector oriented bull markets during next 21 months.

    Always buy next most bullish stocks and groups keeping your valuable gems. Some will become more than 10 baggars in the future.

    I noticed some members here have become more than 10 baggers by keeping few valuable stocks.

    We should learn not to pass risk to somebody by disposing overvalued and hot stocks.

    Didn’t I tell that #KVAL would break again Rs.100/- barrier?

    One thing I want to mention here. There are five special stocks. #BFL, #SPEN, #KVAL, #KGAL, #NEST and #WATA. They have two specific bull factors in the current major uptrend.

    On valuation, ROE, less debt, attractive earnings and market expansion #BFL is more attractive now. They will have their best results in their business life in the above areas during next fiancée year. When arrival of tourists increase to around 2.5 million beyond 2012 you can see how much potential they will have in the coming years in addition to demand from north and east, local market, local halal market and export market.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] Bull stocks Today!#L... reply from MarketWatch, 8 Jul 10
  • Now ODEL has oversubscribed by more than 15 times.

    If somebody has applied for 100,000 shares, in percentage wise, he should get around 6500 shares. Balance money will come back to some other assets.

    I do not depend on order books, charts, rumours, paper advertisements, support and resistance levels etc.

    I depend on my own tortoise pattern, great value, good business model, future earnings and other important factors. My market barriers also important to me.

    Pl learns to prepare for group, stocks and sector oriented bull markets during next 21 months.

    Always buy next most bullish stocks and groups keeping your valuable gems. Some will become more than 10 baggars in the future.

    I noticed some members here have become more than 10 baggers by keeping few valuable stocks.

    We should learn not to pass risk to somebody by disposing overvalued and hot stocks.

    Didn’t I tell that #KVAL would break again Rs.100/- barrier?

    One thing I want to mention here. There are five special stocks. #BFL, #SPEN, #KVAL, #KGAL, #NEST and #WATA. They have two specific bull factors in the current major uptrend.

    On valuation, ROE, less debt, attractive earnings and market expansion #BFL is more attractive now. They will have their best results in their business life in the above areas during next fiancée year. When arrival of tourists increase to around 2.5 million beyond 2012 you can see how much potential they will have in the coming years in addition to demand from north and east, local market, local halal market and export market.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] Reasons for the dip ... reply from MarketWatch, 8 Jul 10
  • Now ODEL has oversubscribed by more than 15 times.

    If somebody has applied for 100,000 shares, in percentage wise, he should get around 6500 shares. Balance money will come back to some other assets.

    I do not depend on order books, charts, rumours, paper advertisements, support and resistance levels etc.

    I depend on my own tortoise pattern, great value, good business model, future earnings and other important factors. My market barriers also important to me.

    Pl learns to prepare for group, stocks and sector oriented bull markets during next 21 months.

    Always buy next most bullish stocks and groups keeping your valuable gems. Some will become more than 10 baggars in the future.

    I noticed some members here have become more than 10 baggers by keeping few valuable stocks.

    We should learn not to pass risk to somebody by disposing overvalued and hot stocks.

    Didn’t I tell that #KVAL would break again Rs.100/- barrier?

    One thing I want to mention here. There are five special stocks. #BFL, #SPEN, #KVAL, #KGAL, #NEST and #WATA. They have two specific bull factors in the current major uptrend.

    On valuation, ROE, less debt, attractive earnings and market expansion BFL is more attractive now. They will have their best results in their business life in the above areas during next fiancial year. When arrival of tourists increase to around 2.5 million beyond 2012 you can see how much potential they will have in the coming years in addition to demand from north and east, local market, local halal market and export market.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] Is this the moment o... reply from MarketWatch, 7 Jul 10
  • Hi Smailk
    \
    My first lower barrier was Rs.100 for #GREG. It came down to that level and went up little bit. Again, I revised my range bound Rs.50 to Rs.150.
    Still my lower barrier for #GREG is around Rs.50/-.

    I am following some stocks and I will let to know some once I see great prospects
    #BFL is number one market value gem in the CSE. We can see their performance in the coming quarters once we see higher ROE, less debt. Higher EPS, positive cash flow, strong demand for their products and new developments etc.

    Everybody should have reason to buy and sell stocks. Some will sell due to personal reasons. Other than that, they will not sell as long as a stock is fundamentally sound. I think one plantation stock will explode in the future.

    I could not buy the stock I wanted today. Sellers are reluctant to sell for lower price.
    More later on falling in love
    Good luck
  • [Updated] Long term investment reply from PGCR, 7 Jul 10
  • Im not a Expert DAYAN. But I can Suggest some long term investments which have great long term values..
    #BFL
    #JINS
    #CLND
    #BALA
    #DFCC
    #CLBL
    #SIRA
    #HAYC
    All r Fundamentally Strong.
    Hope Real Experts will add their comments.

    Happy Trading...!
  • [Updated] Bull stocks Today!#L... reply from cse.see, 7 Jul 10
  • Dear Rizan , Samaldeniya,

    Above as a eg. I got #BFL.
    Please do not directly buy #BFL.
    Invest your money in fundamentaly strong stocks.
    #BFL, #KGAL, #KOTA, #BALA, #LFIN, #HAYC, #DIPD, #COMB, #RCL are potential to go up comming months.
    Either, you can spred your investment with buying different type of shares. Then your Risk be minimize.
  • [Updated] Bull stocks Today!#L... reply from smaldeniya, 6 Jul 10
  • i too have faced same incident with #CLPL but with less investment though i m thinking to hold them till the right issue because as of my calculations
    after the right if we guess a share is trade @ the price RS 90 per each
    then with the 5 warrents attatched to share value of the right before XD will more than 150 (like happen for #GREG rights in February this year) and the share wont go below 90 till the rights issued
    so more than 150 *400 + 90 * 400 will cover your cost i think


    but according to the above strategy which cse.see is explained above buys #BFL is too a great idea

    (if you guys can comment on my strategy i appreciate )
  • [Updated] Bull stocks Today!#L... reply from Rizan, 6 Jul 10
  • Thank you CSE,
    I have purchased 1400 #BFL already. My stupid broker he only recommend this #CLPL. Before i came to this site :( thank GOD i got u people like a treasure. Ok then I'll sell #CLPL as soon. Now i learnt that should invest on strong fundamentals or else it is risk. Hey what about purchasing #KGAL or #BALA instead of #BFL. Will #BALA do good :D Please help me. Great Help
    Thank you very much.
  • [Updated] Bull stocks Today!#L... reply from cse.see, 6 Jul 10
  • Simpale way....

    INVEST #CLPL 400 X 232/- = 92,800/-
    CURRENT PRICE 209/- X 400 = 83,600/-
    LOSS = (9,200/-)
    IF YOU SOLD AT THIS LEVEL, YOU WILL GET = 83,600/-
    YOU CAN BUY,
    SAY #BFL @ Rs.71/- ....
    83,600/- divided 71/- = 1200 shares of BFL.
    In future if you sold #BFL @ 90/-,
    YOUR INCOME = 1200 X 90/- = 108,000/-
    THEN YOU WILL HAVE A PROFIT OF = 108,000/- LESS 92,800/- = 15,200/-
    * I have not consider commission to above.
  • [Updated] Bull stocks Today!#L... reply from cse.see, 5 Jul 10
  • Yes MW, Different groups have different opinion.
    But my way is going with strong companies, strong fundamentals, strong company results (profits).
    Accordingly (current Plantation rally),
    TO ME : Strong Plantaions are #KVAL, #KGAL, #KOTA.
    #KVAL now 105/- touched.
    #KGAL to follow on #KVAL & then to reach Rs.100/-.
    Then #KOTA follow on #KVAL & #KGAL & then to reach Rs.90/-.
    I Know #NAMU, #ELPL, #MADU also having strong results. all will up side.
    #BALA pattern always up & down side. It will reach Rs.50/- soon.
    But, I am going with strong companies.
    Discloser - little egsamples :
    * I bought Hayleys @ 185/- , Rs.217.50 & 235/-, Then sold @ 315/-, 310/- & 308/-.
    * Haycarb Bought 90/- sold 105/-, Then Bought 117/- sold 197/-.
    * Lankem bought 65/- & sold 117.25.
    * Kotagala bought 44/- & sold 66/-.
    * LB Finance bought 115.25 & sold last week 145/-
    see, above all strong companies.

    * In my portfolio currently having more than 10,000 shares of #BFL @ av.62/- & still holding this due to #BFL strongbility.
    * in addition to Holding #KGAL, #KOTA, #BALA, #CLND, #TESS, #CIC, #LION, #RICH, #STAF.
  • [Updated] Bull stocks Today!#L... reply from cse.see, 5 Jul 10
  • Thanks MW for your comments. Actually I know you are the No.1 best advisor/analyzer/guider in this forum. I think all will agree with me. You be a real FIXED ASSET to our users. Great job.

    I will tell little bit about me. I am working as a one of Assistant Accountant in leading Blue Chip Company (PLC) in Colombo.
    My Stock recommendation strategy as follows,

    01. Information flow (News) – have to be powerfully business information flow. (Business Newspapers, Business WEB sites, Discussion with Finance knowledgably peoples, E.mails)
    (By using Google alerts you can create more Business topics & then you will get more News).

    02. Analyze method: have to be at least minimum last 05-10 years accounts in a single excel sheet. (Each company 10 year summary in their annual report).

    03. If any News published CSE web site you have to be quickly go through it. Then you have a more return or you can minimize your loss. (You have to be 1st).

    04. IMPORTANT: Monitor Quarter by quarter company performance. Then EPS, ROE.....etc.

    05. IMPORTANT: Maintain sector wise performance sheet. Then can get idea about PE ratios.

    06. IMPORTANT: Maintain each company wise NAV sheet. Before buying shares better to consider this. (Not always).

    07. Once you see the published accounts you have to go to Cash Flow statement & Auditors report. Cash flow will tell you more. Debtor level, Borrowings level, how they earned profits, Operational Profit or Investing Profit or financing Profit….etc. You have considered any Auditor comments in their report.

    08. Consider No of shares issued. How many lodged in CDS. % having in major share holders. Then you will have a clear idea about trading qty. If high volumes more sellers will come.

    09. You have to be Always Study last 04-05 weeks share moving pattern. If you can see changing hands in considerable volumes, probably that stock up side. (Not always).

    10. Consider Sector wise Business Trend in Sri Lana & World wide : e.g.: Tea, Rubber Prices, Construction improvements, Oil price movements, Tourist arrivals, daily USD/GBP variations, Inflations, Interest rates, AWPLR variations, etc

    11. You have to be referring stock market broker’s research reports/recommendations.

    12. IMPORTANT: if you are a short term trader, take quick decisions. (If stock coming down, then sell it & re-invest in profitable stock. Your loss is minimizing).

    13. Communications: discussions with friends who dealing with other stock brokers.

    14. IMPORTANT: (as you mentioned several times) FUNDAMENTALS, FUTURE BUSINESS GROWTHS, EXPANSIONS, DEBTOR LEVELS, GEARINGS, ……ETC

    Considering above all, you can identify stocks with an own strategy & get more returns.

    I don’t have a lot more time to write more things to this forum, because of time & my job. That’s why less contribution to this forum. But, if I saw, quickly I will highlight more stocks in future.

    By using above stratergy, Several times in this forum I have mentioned (last 05 months) the following shares to be reach the following levels.

    #HAYL - Hayleys 185/- level I mentioned to be reach Rs.300/- level.
    #HAYC - Haycarb 90/- level I mentioned to be reach Rs.190/- level.
    #KOTA - Kotagala 44/- level I mentioned to be reach Rs.66/- level.
    #LCEY – Lankem 66/- level I mentioned to be reach Rs.112/- level.
    #SINS – Singer 88/- level I mentioned to be reach Rs.120/- level.
    #BFL – Bairaha 49/- level I mentioned to be reach Rs.72/- level.
    #HSIG – Hotel Sigiriya 52/- level I mentioned to be reach Rs.66/- level.
    #BALA – Balangoda 26/- level I mentioned to be reach Rs.40/- level.
    #LION – Lion 78/- level I mentioned to be reach Rs.100/- level.
    #KVAL – Kelanivally 51/- level I mentioned to be reach Rs.66/- level.

    All happened. Good luck for Profitable trading.
  • [Updated] #BFL is expanding th... reply from MarketWatch, 3 Jul 10
  • Hi UR

    I don’t get any news, tips or rumours from anybody. Generally, I will ignore

    #BFL already paid their interim dividend. They should pay their final dividend.
    More than dividends keep an eye on their new developments and future strong earnings.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] #BFL , how to descri... reply from MarketWatch, 3 Jul 10
  • http://bairahalk.com/news.php?nid=4

    Date: 2010-03-20

    Bairaha Group becomes the largest and leading producer of broiler day-old-chicks.

    From this we can get another clue. #BFL is exapnding their business. They will exapnd more and more in the future.
  • [Updated] #BFL , how to descri... reply from MarketWatch, 2 Jul 10
  • More about #BFL

    http://bairahalk.com/news.php?nid=4
    Date: 2010-03-20
    Bairaha Group becomes the largest and leading producer of broiler day-old-chicks.

    http://bairahalk.com/news.php?nid=3

    Date: 2009-11-20
    Award for Annual Report

    Bairaha Farms PLC. wins the Bronze award of the annual report in the Food & Beverage sector in the Annual Report Award Competition 2009 organized by Institute of Charted Accountants of Sri Lanka

    http://bairahalk.com/news.php?nid=2

    Date: 2009-08-20
    Awards 2009

    * Bairaha Farms PLC. was adjudged the winner of the Silver Award in the category of Manufactures and Consumer Products awarded by Sri Lanka Malaysia Business Council.

    * Bairaha Farms PLC. was adjudged the joint winner of the Bronze Award in the category of Retailers of Finished Products awarded by Sri Lanka Malaysia Business Council.

    * Fortune G-P Farms (Lanka) Ltd. was awarded the Gold Award in the Medium category for Input Supplier (Paultry) awarded by National Agribusiness Council at the Agri-Business Awards-2009.

    http://www.dailymirror.lk/print/index.php/business/127-local/1556.html

    Bairaha chicken enters export market


    Fortune G-P Farms Lanka (FGPFL), an associate company of Bairaha Farms, entered the export market recently, with the export of two consignments of parent breeder chicks to Nepal. The consignments consisted of 6,000 parent chicks valued at Rs. 2.5 million.

    A single parent bird has the ability to breed about 130 broiler chicks during its life span. Local breeding companies require a total estimated 812,000 birds annually. Until recently, 85% of this requirement was imported, but now FGPFL has the capacity to supply nearly 50% of the local requirement.
    The cost of an imported parent breeder chick is around US$ 4. Valuable foreign exchange has been saved as a result of FGPFL producing and supplying these breeding chicks to the local market, in addition to bringing in foreign exchange through its exports.

    http://business.highbeam.com/61214/article-1P3-1981430351/nac-assists-poultry-farmers

    NAC assists poultry farmers

    Sri Lanka, March 12 -- Eight farmers in Minuwangate, Kurunegala were selected to receive assistance towards the construction of poultry pens on their own land, through the National Agribusiness Council (NAC) under the FAO's Telefood Special Fund.

    Construction and supply of materials was supervised by the coordinating officer of the Kurunegala Regional Farmer Council. This Project was conducted by the National Agribusiness Council, FAO of the United Nations and Bairaha Farms PLC, who supplied thousand chicks per farmer under a buy back agreement.

    TeleFood is the FAO's annual campaign dedicated towards reducing the number of hungry people in the world by operating at the …
  • [Updated] Arn't we greedy........ reply from pissa6666, 2 Jul 10
  • I am sorry for your loss ananda95. A lesson learnt the hard way.

    It is a pity the CSE does not have a control system. When speculation is reigning supreme like this, it is their duty to have some system of suspending the trading of a stock periodically and getting the explanation from the company for the reason and allow trading after being convinced of an acceptable reason.

    further, when market is hyper active like this, CSE seriously lacks controls on insider dealing.

    For members, if it is so irresistible, I can give you one tip. When you get tempted in big rallies like this and like to make an intra-day gain even when you know that the share is risky, ask yourself a question. "Whether you are comfortable even if you lose the whole capital in this gamble?" If the answer is "Yes", then go ahead.

    The abillity to resist the urge to get involved in this comes from determination, experience and maturity.
    We should try to develop that.

    We commented on shares like #BFL, #GRAN, #LFIN, #RICH, #PABC, #NTB etc. in the past and all have appreciated and stocks like #BFL and #LFIN have appreciated by more than 200% from the time we first commented. If you follow a strategy to book into fundamentally sound shares, and use a little tech analysis to time the purchase and sales, you will always win.
  • [Updated] How to know which co... reply from MarketWatch, 1 Jul 10
  • Hi Fazmin

    Look for some base building stocks. They are due for strong breakouts. Even today, there were some initial sign in some stocks. Once we identify the stock, we should analyse fundamentals as well.

    #BFL already announced their interim dividend and they should announce their final dividend in the future.

    Do not chase any stock unless you know the trend and skills.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] How to know which co... reply from rehan, 1 Jul 10
  • @Rizan

    Your still in quite a good position to exit #CLPL if your uncomfortable with it as I've calculated a loss after all taxes and charges to be around 6% which trust me is better than 10% ;)

    You can use our free tool to calculate any profit / loss on your investments below;
    http://investnow.lk/tradecal/

    Looking at #NHL is seems to be gaining on revenue over the last year / recent quarters and just about getting back from a loss it suffered last year though it's ROE is just 5% which is kind of mediocre as I prefer to only invest in companies with an ROE of over 20%. NAV refers to "Net Asset Value" per share and is the real value of a share according to the company's asset base. ROE refers to "return-on-equity" which is the company's net profits generated from the capital invested - the higher the better as it shows better management ;)

    If you bought any thing within the last 2 weeks expect them to fall though the quality of each investment would determine how steep it may decline. #BFL has been shedding on decreasing volumes as I believe that investors who were eager to make quick returns started selling their stakes in even quality stocks possibly because they were unaware of their actual worth.

    I bought #BFL over 3 weeks ago for around 62 but the buy price set but missed was 58 so it may come down to 65 levels but my suggestion would be to sit tight as it's a very valuable stock and the numbers prove it ;)

    Check out it's financials in the file below;
    http://www.investnow.lk/uploads/financial-data/BFL.xls

    Another stock I bought was #LFIN at around 110 but it's current prices seem hyped so I'd be waiting till after the correction to re-invest.

    http://www.investnow.lk/uploads/financial-data/LFIN.xls

    Don't take anyone's word for it, do your own research and come to your own conclusions and before you make an investment you need to be confident in it.
  • [Updated] #BFL reply from Rizan, 30 Jun 10
  • I 100% agree wit MarketWatch. Cuz the strong fundamentals really have a strong value where i can sleep peacefully and wake up after months n see it surely would rise. The hot stocks price rise on demand and supply. Cant predict will the demand fall or rise. So safe is on strong fundamentals.Just take #BFL and other stocks which MW prefers. The share price change wont change in big difference because the price is not running on hot stock where demand over values the price. So it is the stable price. After this quarter hope it will keep rising, though it drops in a week do not worry cuz the rise is for sure stable.
    MW correct me if wrong that is what I understood :D hehe...

    I learned everything from this forum. My broker is stupid does not know anything. MarketWatch is our small investor's Treasure.

    MW, please can u let me know about #NHL too. Cuz they have industry and performance is good.
    Thank You!
  • [Updated] #CLND ,#MASK, #HHL, ... reply from MarketWatch, 30 Jun 10
  • #BFL will outperform all of above companies on EPS, ROE, value, less debt and positive and strong cash flow during next five quarters.

    Good luck!

    Year of visit Sri-Lanka 2011
    What about more than 2.5 million tourists beyond 2012.
    Then BFL will have more and more work,.
  • [Updated] #CLND ,#MASK, #HHL, ... reply from MarketWatch, 29 Jun 10
  • Hi Mission,

    Pl refer to my previous answers. I have a faith on #BFL due to one of the best ROEs in the market now and next financial year, higher EPS, less debt, strong demand for their products, export market, tourist market, north and east market and new developments etc.

    Market P/E around 23. Still BFL is trading around P/E ratio of 9. What a gem in the current market

    We have to go with numbers not with speculation.

    For me #BFL is number one markets’ value gem.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] #BFL reply from sampath2009, 29 Jun 10
  • Dear M/W,

    Yes I am agree with you. I can see DPL future. It's like GREG.
    Hope #BFL and #BALA will perform best. (As a "L" board holder, may be my prediction about " BALA" wrong.

    Thanks be to you and your tortoise plus strategy.

    PS: Ah... M/W, I am not "perera" I am Sampath Priyadarshana (sampath2009). (lol)
  • [Updated] #BFL reply from MarketWatch, 29 Jun 10
  • Hi Perera.

    Don’t worry much about stock prices as long as we see strong fundamentals, higher EPS and ROE in the future.

    Future earnings are very important.

    In the medium term and long term, only earnings will drive stock prices not speculation.

    We must have some patience for some special stocks

    Just because stocks are going up, we are not right.
    Just because of stocks are going down we are not wrong.
    Big stocks have small move. Small stocks have big move.

    Globally only hidden gems have given more than 20 baggers return in the medium term and long term due to future earnings, attractive ROE, strong cast flow in the future, less debt, new developments, new markets and strong demand for their products etc.

    Can your remember I recently asked recently how about DPL. Just to get some idea about how you analyse stocks now. Some hot stocks will shine in the market for a short period due to some players. Once they disappear them or once they lose markets, higher cost or some other problems they will come down just like bundles of cards.

    For some products, some commodities there will be up and down in their business time to time globally. Some times there will be market and sometimes there will not market. On the other hand people will always will eat. In the coming years there will be strong demand form middle class Indians for some food.

    Those days another export oriented shoe company called Korea Ceylon Footwear trades as a hot stock one time. It went up from Rs.3 to over Rs.200/-. We know what happened to company. Same thing happened to Pugoda Textiles. They are not trading now

    Always try to analyse future earnings and value.

    My much-improved tortoise plus strategy will try to identity value gems in the current market. It will go behind companies able to make EPS more than 5 and higher ROE in the next quarter and companies with double digit EPS and ROE in the next financial years.

    For me #BFL is number one markets’ value gem

    Good luck
  • [Updated] TAFL vs Govt importi... reply from MarketWatch, 28 Jun 10
  • As I said earlier this a temporary move to reduce shortage. They are not going to import continuously. They are only going to order around 2000 M ton. They are not going to sell below the control price. (Recently (at the end of March) government increased the control price of chicken)

    Remember policy makers want to make self sufficient in maize and rice.
    Without vibrant poultry sector, there will not be market for maize. I think poultry farmers; maize and rice farmers will benefit during next five years.

    It is true still #TAFL is fundamentally weak. However, this company can become turnaround Company depend on some factors.

    If we compare with #DPL, #TAFL is very attractive.

    If TAFL can improve their balance sheet during next five quarters, there will be further upside in this stock

    We can clearly see there is a strong demand for poultry products now and in the future in Sri-Lanka.

    In the coming years, there will be more and more economic activies in north and east. More and more tourists will visit Sri-Lanka during next five years. There are strong demands for poultry products from not only hotels but also from restaurant from north and east, new consumers from north and east, local tourists etc. This trend will accelerate in the coming months and coming years.

    On the other hand, #BFL is not a fundamentally weak stock. It is very strong stock. They are in a position to make use of future opportunities in not only form the local market but also in export market. It is number one markets’ value gem. We have to keep an eye on their new developments now. Some new developments will make #BFL more and more attractive in the future

    More later. Some temporary events, pullbacks will create great opportunities for some intelligent investors and intelligent speculators.

    In the current market, there are few great companies trading heavily discounted to the market? #BFL is one such company.


    Thanks and good luck
  • [Updated] Sri Lanka to import ... reply from MarketWatch, 27 Jun 10
  • As I said earlier this will be temporary. I think industry cannot supply full quantity now due to increased demand from local consumers, hotels and consumers from north and east. They will be able to supply in the medium term once they expand their businesses.

    Remember hotels are booked and there will be more tourists in the coming months. July onwards. Therefore, there will be demand from hotels. Increased development activities in the coming years, year of visit Sri-Lanka 2011 and expected 2.5 million tourists beyond 2012 all will create more and more demand for poultry products. I think by that time country will become self sufficient in maize and rice. Poultry group also will have rapid growth.

    BFL has segments market for their HALAL products. In addition, they have to supply boiler chicks to export market as well.BFL already has segment market for halal poultry products from existing customer base and new customers from north and east

    The present requirement of poultry is 11,000 metric tons per month with the present supply being 8,250 metric tons; 75 percent of the requirement. So there is a shortage of around 2750 metric ton.

    Now from that shortage state agency is going to import w 2,000 metric tonnes of poultry meat from Brazil.

    I don’ think policy makers will take hasty decisions. They have identified Agri-Business sector very well and they want to develop live stock sector during next five years.

    Their main aim is to make self-sufficient in maize and rice. I the medium term and long-term poultry sector will benefit lot in addition to maize farmers and rice farmers.

    In a development process, poultry farmers and rice farmers also should benefit.

    We have to accept that there is a shortage in chicken products in Sri-Lanka. Unfortunately, without any feed cost consumers have to pay higher prices for high quality fish.

    .http://www.asian-agribiz.com/display.aspx?PageID=0&MemberID=0&screenheight=768&screenwidth=1024#

    Sri Lanka to import chicken meat

    [9 June 2010] The Sri Lankan government plans to import 3500 tonnes of chicken meat to ease the shortage and rising prices in the country. The import is likely to be sought from the UK, the US, Australia and Brazil, which are free from the bird flu. There is a shortfall in chicken meat in Sri Lanka as the government's ban on corn imports has caused farmers to withdraw from business due to rising feed costs. This has sent the price of processed chicken up to LKR 600/kg (USD 5.2).

    Pl read my previous answer on #BFL
    • .
    • If government decide to import it will be temporary and only quantity shortage will be imported. Because policy makers want to develop agri-business and want to see self sufficient in Maize. This is one of the positive steps taken by the policy makers for the long run sustainability and development of Agri-Business sector and particularity poultry group.

    Policy makers have to think about maize farmers, poultry farmers and consumers etc.
    Policy makers already increased maximum selling price for chicken to help poultry farmers.

    Currently there is a shortage in poultry products due to strong demand. Demand will increase further due to increased local and foreign tourists. In addition, there is a great demand form restaurants in north and east as well.

    Year of 2011 going to be year of visit Sri-Lanka. More visitors will visit Sri-Lanka in 2011.

    There is another problem in importing poultry products. They cannot import from India due to virus threat and only option is to import from USA, UK and Australia. Therefore, cost will be higher.

    Nepal originally imported chicks from countries such as Australia and now they see it is easy to import chicks from BFL in Sri-Lanka. They say they can save time and also they can reduce cost.

    Now Nepal has banned importing poultry products from India and they just began to import chicks from #BFL in Sri-Lanka now. Even Bangladesh is going to stop importing poultry products from India. Currently there is a shortage in many countries and chicken and chick prices have doubled in some countries.

    With increased middle class in India and China, tea and meat prices will go up further in the coming years. I think #BFL will have opportunity to export to other markets including India in the future due to demand for quality food products.

    In short, poultry prices will go up further due to higher demand from emerging economies

    Why do we see higher prices in chicken and egg in some counties now?

    Posted by me in Feb 2010
    •
    In Sri-Lanka, egg and chicken prices have gone up due to demand. Now Bangladesh also going to import chicken and boiler chicks from bird flue free country and they want to avoid India. Sri-Lanka is the only bird flue free country in South Asia. Therefore, there will be export orders for chicken products from Bangladesh in the future.

    Due to higher demand, there are shortages in chicken in many countries including Sri-Lanka with slight shortage.

    http://www.dailymirror.lk/print/index.php/business/127-local/2282.html

    According to Bairaha Farms Managing Director Yakooth Naleem, demand has outstripped supply

    Attributing the current slight shortfall to excessive demand, he went on to say: "It is impossible for the industry to keep up. Last month it was Christmas and now it is the elections. Hence, the consumption of chicken had tremendously increased. As a result of the price of fish being unstable, the public opts for the next most economical option, which is chicken.

    http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Regional/Lahore/13-Jan-2010/Egg-prices-fly-high
    Egg prices fly high

    Published: January 13, 2010

    • LAHORE - With add to injury, now the egg is no more in the access of the poor, as egg prices have soared to record high of Rs 110 per dozen here in the provincial metropolis on Tuesday. Market dealers claimed that the prices shot up owing to the huge gap between supply and demand of the commodity.

    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/19302/rising-prices-blames-on-growing-strong-demand

    Rising Prices Blames on Growing Strong Demand

    INDIA - Strong demand is pushing up the prices of chicken and eggs more than usual during this winter.

    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/18431/chicken-egg-prices-up-on-hopes-of-demand

    Chicken, Egg Prices Up on Hopes of Demand

    • TAMIL NADU, INDIA - Egg prices have increased 10 per cent in the past fortnight, while chicken prices have gone up by over 30 per cent during the same period on hopes of rise in demand

    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/19362/will-russias-increased-poultry-demand-be-met

    Will Russia’s Increased Poultry Demand Be Met?

    TURKEY - Following a recent decision by the Russian government to increase its poultry imports from Turkey to 500,000 tons annually, Turkish poultry producers have voiced concerns that the sector may not actually be able to meet this demand.
    http://www.worldpoultry.net/news/philippines-increase-in-poultry-demand-seen-in-2011-id4742.html

    Philippines: increase in poultry demand seen in 2011
    //11 Jan 2010

    • Poultry is one of the growing sectors in Philippine agriculture with one company projecting an increase in demand by as much as 46 percent in 2011 compared to the demand in 2007.
    Even records from the Department of Agriculture (DA) showed that the poultry subsector registered a 3.46 percent output gain in 2009.

    http://www.worldpoultry.net/news/poultry-prices-skyrocket-in-nepal-id1663.html

    Poultry prices skyrocket in Nepal
    //27 Aug 2007
    The ban of parent chick imports into Nepal from countries suspected of bird-flu has triggered a shortage of chicken and eggs, resulting in a fresh price hike in poultry products.

    We are preparing to import chicks from Sri Lanka as bird-flu has not been detected there and flight schedule from there to Nepal is also convenient. But it will take time."

    http://agritrade.cta.int/en/Commodities/Poultry-sector

    Poultry sector

    Poultry trade and prices stable despite global downturn

    There is broad agreement across all projections on the longer-term trends. Up to 2018 the meat sector is expected to continue to grow by an average of 1.9% per annum under the impact of population growth and increased income levels in developing countries. The poultry sector will experience by far the highest rates of growth in meat consumption – some 2.3%, compared to 1.8% for pork and sheep meat and 1.3% for beef

    By 2018 poultry meat will dominate meat consumption

    In short best managed poultry companies with synergy with top global poultry players will benefit most not only in the short run but also in the long run due to higher demand, increased consumption in the future.

    Bairah Farms (BFL) in Sri-Lanka have synergy with USA based Cobb Van trees Global leader in Poultry (recently acquired by HYDRO B.V their former grandparent breeder chicks suppliers). Now BFL is in a position to supply the world’s most efficient broiler chicks Cobb not only to the local market but also to the export market.

    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/17768/supply-demand-pushes-up-chicken-pri Tuesday, May 19, 2009ces-in-nepal

    Supply/Demand Pushes up Chicken Prices in Nepal

    In Bangladesh

    http://www.ittefaq.com/issues/2010/02/13/news0693.htm
    • Rice, broiler chicken, mug, sugar prices up

    http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/more.php?news_id=102151

    Price of poultry birds shot up by 15 per cent to Tk 150 a kilogram in a span of one week at the retail market in the city, which traders blame on higher production cost.
    The price of poultry birds has been increasing since last few years and the gap between the demand and the supply is also widening, industry people said.

    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/20274/poultry-companies-invest-to-meet-projected-demand

    INDIA - The consumption of chicken meat is set to double by 2014-15, according to the top poultry companies, which are investing heavily to meet the projected increase in demand
    Reported on Daily News on March 18.

    ttp://www.dailynews.lk/2010/03/18/news33.asp

    More Lankans consuming chicken, egg
    Dulshani GUNAWARDENA and Ishara MUDUGAMUWA

    Sri Lanka has seen a rising trend in chicken and egg consumption during the past few years.

    The consumption of chicken per head/per year has risen to 5.19kg in 2009 from 5.05kg in 2005.

    Egg consumption has risen from 52 per head/per year in 2009 from 48 in 2006.

    The end of the war has escalated the demand for poultry products.

    Last year has seen an increase in consumption in the North and East.

    The improved tourist activity has also contributed to this demand.

    However this has led to a shortage in supply.

    The present requirement of poultry is 11,000 metric tons per month with the present supply being 8,250 metric tons; 75 percent of the requirement.

    The current retail price of one kilo of chicken has increased to Rs 350 from Rs 320 Livestock Development Ministry Secretary, Sunimal Senaratna said these high prices were mainly due to increased production costs. With the rise of feed cost, the production cost is approximately Rs.340.

    Senaratna said producers have been instructed to maximize their supply while in the case of a shortage, imports of poultry will be made to reach the shortage from disease free countries.

    Action is to be taken to stabilize feed cost through the introduction of a maximum retail price for maize

    Thanks and good luck
  • [Updated] Common things in #BF... reply from MarketWatch, 26 Jun 10
  • One more thing:


    A stock with a P/E of 30 obviously has much greater scope for a fall than one with a P/E of 9.

    All of the above companies are leaders in their group. P/E ratio of both #BALA and #BFL are very attractive.

    In plantation group there is some consistency in both #KVAL and #BALA.
    During last ten years, they made at least some profits except one finical year

    #BFL made a profit even during recession.

    MASK, TPL, KVAL and BALA made profit form 2000 to 2004/2005(year ending)
    BALA made small loss in 2002. Rs.5.691.008/-. KVAL made loss in year ending 2009 recently. In the current quarter, they made profit and their EPS is over 3.

    EPS BALA IN 2001= 1.01
    In 2004:3.77
    In 2006: 1.43
    In 2007=9.05
    In 2008=3.38
    In 2009= around 3.50
    First quarter of 2010: over 3.69

    KVAL: EPS
    2000=3.38
    2001=1.23
    2004=5.53
    2008=8.11
    2009=-(1.25)

    First quarter of 2010:3.29


    Surprisingly BALA KVAL has some consistency in earnings. They have made profit for the last ten years. More than that, they have reduced their long-term liability considerably.

    Currently we see some of the best working capital position in the following companies:

    #BALA
    #KGAL
    #KVAL

    They have more current assets including their short term investments have increased.
    Now we have to study their performance of plantations sector during next five years.

    Remember Without the short term funding, the business will go bankrupt. Company cannot survive with negative working capital


    Most important factors to consider when you buy stocks:

    General market conditions now and future
    Market players (Some will pump stocks and then they will disappear)
    Future earnings are more important than past earnings
    Less debt
    Good cash flow in the future
    Strong demand for their products now and in the future
    Do not make investment by looking at one quarterly result.
    Higher ROE
    Lower P/E when compare with others in the group.


    We should look for fundamentally sound undervalued stocks with following characteristics:

    Ability to improve cash flow in the future
    Ability to expand their market
    Ability to introduce new product range and new products
    Company should concentrate on their core businesses very well.
    Companies with less debt and ability to reduce their debt further.
    Strong demand for their products in the future.
    Companies with new developments
    Management should have innovative ideas
    Stocks should not be too crowded

    Have tortoise plus strategy in the second half of the year. Tortoise will outperform hares in the rest of the year and next year.

    We should learn to give fair price for quality stocks during next five years.

    Avoid hot stocks. Avoid massively overvalued stocks with extended P/E ratios.

    Remember we do not want to win all the times. If we can win one big win from a great winning stock, we can beat the market.

    Everybody make mistakes even top investors and traders.

    In bull markets, stock will go up. In Bear markets stock will go down.

    Finally, globally selected best-managed poultry food companies will outperform general market in 2010 and 2011.

    #BFL is best-managed poultry company in Sri-Lanka. It is the best-managed agri-business company in Sri-Lanka. They have concentrated on their core business very well.

    This is my range bound for market during next five months.

    4500 to 5000.

    We will have some volatility. Some value stocks will go up slowly and systematically. Avoid stocks appreciating more than Rs.5 in a single day now. We should stay with winning stocks now.

    If market go below the most important tortoise barrier 4375, then it can go to as low as to 4000 during next 10 months.

    Anyway, I will update my new range bound whenever I see some developments.

    Sometimes expected correction will never come. Instead, we will have sector, group and stocks oriented correction, bull markets time to time. Recently we had correction for plantations group, some stocks. Globally time to time we will see sector, group and stocks oriented bull markets during next 10 years. There will be volatility as well.

    Finally, when we do investing and trading we should cultivate some ethics and morals as well. Those who take stock market as casino will lose in the future.

    We should invest and trade stocks as art and science

    Tortoise plus strategy is the best.

    Stock market trading is all about the art of choosing the right stocks on the basis of science of analyzing the stocks

    Remember time-to-time-state funds, foreign funds such as recent Japanese fund, attractive results in the next quarter, group action, action of top players, acquisitions, splits, speculation and bonus issues can influence some stock prices.

    State funds already invested in banks. After that, they went up by more than 50%.
    I think they will go for value stocks in the future. Stated funds will give big boost to the CSE during next five years. Some funds are very intelligent. They know how to buy attractive stocks before Mr Market recognize them. In some situation, they are better than private sector in selecting stocks.

    We should not expect stocks to go double and treble within a week or month. If it operate as a casino there will be burst soon. Do not go behind hot stocks now.

    One more study

    Try to compare following companies during next five quarters based on value, ROE, less debt, EPS, sales, cash flow, strong demand for their products, growth etc. Then we can get idea about one of the best stock in the market

    CARG, CLPL, BFL and HHL

    Thanks and good luck
  • [Updated] Invest like Warren B... reply from MarketWatch, 25 Jun 10
  • I will add some more.

    http://www.buffettsecrets.com/warren-buffett-debt.htm


    WARREN BUFFETT ON DEBT


    WARREN BUFFETT DOES NOT LIKE DEBT
    Warren Buffett does not like debt and does not like to invest in companies that have too much debt, particularly long-term debt. With long-term debt, increases in interest rates can drastically affect company profits and make future cash flows less predictable.

    In 1982, Warren Buffett noted that Berkshire Hathaway preferred to buy companies with little or no debt and has repeated this mantra on many occasions. He adopts the same philosophy for his company, preferring to avoid debt but where necessary going into it on a long-term basis only with fixed rates of interest and to obtain the finance before they need it.

    WHAT WARREN BUFFETT SAYS ABOUR DEBT

    Warren Buffet acknowledges that debt can effectively increase the return on equity in a company but warns against it. In 1987, he said this:
    ‘Good business or investment decisions will eventually produce quite satisfactory economic results, with no aid from leverage.
    'It seems to us both foolish and improper to risk what is important (including, necessarily, the welfare of innocent bystanders such as policyholders and employees) for some extra returns that are relatively unimportant.’
    BENJAMIN GRAHAM ON DEBT
    There are various approaches to looking at a company’s debt. Benjamin Graham, in The Interpretation of Financial Statements, defined some important terms:
    Current assets - Assets which either are cash or can be readily turned into cash or will be converted into cash fairly rapidly in the normal course of business. Include cash, cash equivalents, receivables due within one year and inventories.
    Current liabilities - Recognised claims against the enterprise which are considered to be payable within one year.
    Shareholders’ equity - The interest of the stockholders in a company as measured by the capital and surplus.
    THE CURRENT RATIO OR THE LIQUIDITY TEST
    Benjamin Graham believed that the current ratio, the ratio of current liabilities to current debt was important in looking at a company’s financial position. In theory, the higher the ratio, the more comfortable, financially, is the company. This has been called the test of liquidity.
    Benjamin Graham said this about the current ratio:
    ‘When a company is in a sound position, the current assets well exceed the current liabilities, indicating that the company will have no difficulty in taking care of its current debts as they mature.’
    There are several reservations here:
    • A company with too high a ratio may not be using its surplus funds wisely
    • Cash businesses, such as supermarkets, generally require a lower ratio than businesses that have protracted periods for customer payments.
    Again, Benjamin Graham:
    ‘What constitutes a satisfactory current ratio varies to some extent with the line of business …'
    In industrial companies a current ratio of 2 to 1 has been considered a sort of standard minimum.’ David Hey-Cunningham believes that a reasonable rule of thumb measure is 1.5 to 1.

    http://www.buffettsecrets.com/return-on-equity
    RETURN ON EQUITY

    Warren Buffett believes that the return that a company gets on its equity is one of the most important factors in making successful stock investments.
    DEFINING EQUITY
    Benjamin Graham defines stockholders equity as:
    ‘The interest of the stockholders in a company as measured by the capital and surplus.’
    WHY WARREN BUFFETT THINKS THAT RETURN ON EQUITY IS IMPORTANT
    Just as a 10% return on a business is, all other things being equal, better than a 5% return, so too with corporate rates of returns on equity. Also, a higher return on equity means that surplus funds can be invested to improve business operations without the owners of the business (stockholders) having to invest more capital. It also means that there is less need to borrow

    RETURN ON CAPITAL IS VERY IMPORTANT
    The example early on this page shows that debt financing can be used to increase the rate of return on equity. This can be misleading and also problematical if interest rates rise or fall. This is probably one reason why Warren Buffett prefers companies with little or no debt. The rate of return on equity is a true one and future earnings are less unpredictable. A careful investor like Buffett would always take rates of return on total capital into account. The average rates of return of capital in the companies referred to above in Berkshire Hathaway portfolio are:


    http://www.buffettsecrets.com/price-earnings-ratio.

    WHAT WARREN BUFFETT THINKS ABOUT P/E RATIOS
    Warren Buffett has not had a lot to say about P/E Ratios as a method of valuation and it is probably only one factor that he takes into account. However, most of the key stock purchases of Warren Buffett identified by Mary Buffett and David Clarke had a fairly low P/E Ratio at the time of purchase. This seems common sense if only for the ‘margin of safety’ factor. A stock with a P/E of 30 obviously has much greater scope for a fall than one with a P/E of 9.


    Now we will apply above philosophy to the following stocks.


    In poultry group #BFL has higher ROE. One of the best in the CSE.

    #BFL has the best current ratio in the group in addition to low debt.

    If you analyse plantation groups #BALA has the lowest debt.

    #kgal #bala and #KVAL have the best current ratios in the plantain group
  • [Updated] Secrets of Investing... reply from MarketWatch, 25 Jun 10
  • Hi sissa

    I will add some more/


    http://www.buffettsecrets.com/warren-buffett-debt.htm


    WARREN BUFFETT ON DEBT


    WARREN BUFFETT DOES NOT LIKE DEBT
    Warren Buffett does not like debt and does not like to invest in companies that have too much debt, particularly long-term debt. With long-term debt, increases in interest rates can drastically affect company profits and make future cash flows less predictable.
    In 1982, Warren Buffett noted that Berkshire Hathaway preferred to buy companies with little or no debt and has repeated this mantra on many occasions. He adopts the same philosophy for his company, preferring to avoid debt but where necessary going into it on a long-term basis only with fixed rates of interest and to obtain the finance before they need it.
    WHAT WARREN BUFFETT SAYS ABOUR DEBT
    Warren Buffet acknowledges that debt can effectively increase the return on equity in a company but warns against it. In 1987, he said this:
    ‘Good business or investment decisions will eventually produce quite satisfactory economic results, with no aid from leverage.
    'It seems to us both foolish and improper to risk what is important (including, necessarily, the welfare of innocent bystanders such as policyholders and employees) for some extra returns that are relatively unimportant.’
    BENJAMIN GRAHAM ON DEBT
    There are various approaches to looking at a company’s debt. Benjamin Graham, in The Interpretation of Financial Statements, defined some important terms:
    Current assets - Assets which either are cash or can be readily turned into cash or will be converted into cash fairly rapidly in the normal course of business. Include cash, cash equivalents, receivables due within one year and inventories.
    Current liabilities - Recognised claims against the enterprise which are considered to be payable within one year.
    Shareholders’ equity - The interest of the stockholders in a company as measured by the capital and surplus.
    THE CURRENT RATIO OR THE LIQUIDITY TEST
    Benjamin Graham believed that the current ratio, the ratio of current liabilities to current debt was important in looking at a company’s financial position. In theory, the higher the ratio, the more comfortable, financially, is the company. This has been called the test of liquidity.
    Benjamin Graham said this about the current ratio:
    ‘When a company is in a sound position, the current assets well exceed the current liabilities, indicating that the company will have no difficulty in taking care of its current debts as they mature.’
    There are several reservations here:
    • A company with too high a ratio may not be using its surplus funds wisely
    • Cash businesses, such as supermarkets, generally require a lower ratio than businesses that have protracted periods for customer payments.
    Again, Benjamin Graham:
    ‘What constitutes a satisfactory current ratio varies to some extent with the line of business …'
    In industrial companies a current ratio of 2 to 1 has been considered a sort of standard minimum.’ David Hey-Cunningham believes that a reasonable rule of thumb measure is 1.5 to 1.

    http://www.buffettsecrets.com/return-on-equity
    RETURN ON EQUITY

    Warren Buffett believes that the return that a company gets on its equity is one of the most important factors in making successful stock investments.
    DEFINING EQUITY
    Benjamin Graham defines stockholders equity as:
    ‘The interest of the stockholders in a company as measured by the capital and surplus.’
    WHY WARREN BUFFETT THINKS THAT RETURN ON EQUITY IS IMPORTANT
    Just as a 10% return on a business is, all other things being equal, better than a 5% return, so too with corporate rates of returns on equity. Also, a higher return on equity means that surplus funds can be invested to improve business operations without the owners of the business (stockholders) having to invest more capital. It also means that there is less need to borrow

    RETURN ON CAPITAL IS VERY IMPORTANT
    The example early on this page shows that debt financing can be used to increase the rate of return on equity. This can be misleading and also problematical if interest rates rise or fall. This is probably one reason why Warren Buffett prefers companies with little or no debt. The rate of return on equity is a true one and future earnings are less unpredictable. A careful investor like Buffett would always take rates of return on total capital into account. The average rates of return of capital in the companies referred to above in Berkshire Hathaway portfolio are:


    http://www.buffettsecrets.com/price-earnings-ratio.

    WHAT WARREN BUFFETT THINKS ABOUT P/E RATIOS
    Warren Buffett has not had a lot to say about P/E Ratios as a method of valuation and it is probably only one factor that he takes into account. However, most of the key stock purchases of Warren Buffett identified by Mary Buffett and David Clarke had a fairly low P/E Ratio at the time of purchase. This seems common sense if only for the ‘margin of safety’ factor. A stock with a P/E of 30 obviously has much greater scope for a fall than one with a P/E of 9.
    Now we will apply above philosophy to the following stocks.

    If you analyse plantation groups #BALA has the lowest debt.

    #kgal #bala and #KVAL have the best current ratios in the plantain group

    In poultry group #BFL has higher ROE. One of the best in the CSE.

    Thanks and good luck!
  • [Updated] Finding The Under Va... reply from MarketWatch, 25 Jun 10
  • It is not a easy task. We have to do lot of study.

    It is not an easy task. We have to do lot of study.

    They should have real earnings in the future. We should have some projection about earnings and growth.
    They should have business and product that overlook
    They should have less debt and more cash in the future
    If they continues to pay down debt
    Some other important factors.
    Strong demand for their products

    Good luck

    Pl read all positing on #BFL. I mentioned #BFL as a hidden gem last year. Now I have upgraded it to makets’value gem.

    #BFL has p/e ration less than 9.
    They have less debt
    They continues to pay down debt
    They have innovative management
    They didn’t make loss during recession. Still they made small profit.
    They had ROE over 18 even in 2007/2008
    Current year they have one of the best ROE. Next year we will see another best ROE better than current ROE.
    In the current quarter, BFL has EPS of over 4.
    Even in the current quarter, BFL has the best ROE, EPS and VALUE if we compare with companies’ #HHL, #CARG and #CLPL
    It has a success story now.
    They will have attractive EPS in the next financial year as well.
    They have strong demand for their products
    They have three markets. Local including north and east.
    Tourist and foreign markets.

    More about value:

    If a stock is selling for Rs.70, but can be determined to be worth Rs.150/ based on predictable future cash flows, then it is an undervalued stock

    If a risky stock has a PE ratio of 5 and the company becomes bankrupt, this would not be an undervalued stock.

    Some characteristics of companies with undervalued stocks are:


    The company's low PE ratio is not due to profits realized from capital gains or not due to a major decline in profitability

    The company did not have a loss during the last recession.

    An undervalued stock will usually have a low PE ratio. For example, a PE ratio of 9 is much better than a PE ratio of 20.

    Some tech stocks had PE ratios 50, 100, 200 or more in year 2000, prior to the bursting of the tech bubble.

    Remember sometimes that market will not listen to fundamentals due to speculators, sophisticated investors and traders.

    It is not an easy task. We have to do lot of study.

    They should have real earnings in the future. We should have some projection about earnings and growth.
    They should have business and product that overlook
    They should have less debt and more cash in the future
    If they continues to pay down debt
    Some other important factors.
    Strong demand for their products

    Good luck
  • [Updated] MarketWatch Please H... reply from MarketWatch, 24 Jun 10
  • Hi Rizan

    #BFL was one of the hidden gems I mentioned in this forum last year. Now I have upgraded into markets’ number one value gem.

    Everybody should have valid reason to buy and sell stocks.

    I will post range bound for some stocks and some new hidden gems during next 10 months.

    I notice that you are interested in stocks such as CLPL.

    Why do not you do some study and compare value, ROE, EPS, expected earning for next nine quarters, less debt and strong demand for their products in the following companies.

    #CARG
    #CLPL
    #HHL
    #BFL

    I am confident #BFL will have the best value and best ROE in the future. Remember they are consistently winning awards for their accounts from Institute of chartered accountants in Sri-Lanka.

    Even in the current quarter #BFL has the best EPS if we compare with above companies. On valuation, future earnings, higher ROE and future prospects it should go up.

    Remember still we have not seen their biggest growth in their business life.

    We should go companies with good numbers and strong future earnings


    Thanks and good luck
  • [Updated] To Mr MarketWatch reply from MarketWatch, 24 Jun 10
  • Hi Rizan

    #BFL was one of the hidden gems I mentioned in this forum last year. Now I have upgraded into markets’ number one value gem.

    Everybody should have valid reason to buy and sell stocks.

    I do not use face book. I will post range bound for some stocks and some new hidden gems during next 10 months.

    I notice that you are interested in stocks such as CLPL.

    Why do not you do some study and compare value, ROE, EPS, expected earning for next nine quarters, less debt and strong demand for their products in the following companies.

    #CARG
    #CLPL
    #HHL
    #BFL

    I am confident #BFL will have the best value and best ROE in the future. Remember they are consistently winning awards for their accounts from Institute of chartered accountants in Sri-Lanka.

    Even in the current quarter #BFL has the best EPS if we compare with above companies. On valuation, future earnings, higher ROE and future prospects it should go up.

    Remember still we have not seen their biggest growth in their business life.

    We should go companies with good numbers and strong future earnings


    Thanks and good luck
  • [Updated] What should be our s... reply from sanga, 24 Jun 10
  • We should buy and hold undervalued stocks, which are going to outperform market in the future.

    My picks for the next 8 months.

    #BALA
    #KGAL
    #BFL
    #MBSL
    #PABC
    #MGT

    Better to collect on market correction and hold on for next 8 months.. Good luck
  • [Updated] Why is the market do... reply from rehan, 24 Jun 10
  • @Seattle

    I'm following #BFL and #LFIN since I own both but I selected them mainly because of their growth potential and each having an ROE over 20% which makes them very attractive as well as quite undervalued in the sense that they are both have a good upward trend.

    I don't invest in stocks just because they are undervalued or because I can get them cheap but prefer to wait until I can recognize a buy point at which point they may seem pricey to many but in my view you need to pay a premium for the good stuff.

    I'm eager to read your analysis if you don't mind sharing it :)
  • [Updated] Why is the market do... reply from rehan, 23 Jun 10
  • @Seattle

    I compiled a list of stocks showing each one's performance since the 9th (2 weeks ago) which I think you may find useful.

    http://investnow.lk/experiments/stock_price_changes.php

    I intent to look at this list deeper and look into the stocks that may be faulty.

    @nishantha001

    Looks like you got in early so I suggest that you hold on to the stocks that you know are valuable. #BFL is one of the stocks on your list that I'm following so I will consider holding onto it because if it is strong as I think it is then we won't see much selling pressure so to sell now and buy later may not be worth it.
  • [Updated] What should be our s... reply from Bala.CSE, 23 Jun 10
  • Hello MarketWatch,

    Thanks for all your effort in producing this wonderful explanations. I'm not relatively new to this subject but very recently I figured out the value of learn this and do rather than do blindly. I followed all your comments and I have a small question which I would like to get clarified. Please ignore this if this question is irrelevant to this context. Since you always talk about under valued stocks I studied the way to find it and now i have a sample of data which i tried out with #BFL.

    According to my calculations for the quarter ended up in 03/31/2010; EPS = 4.45, Profit Margin=12.7% (which is growing), Current Ratio = 1.48, Quick Ratio = 0.95, Debt Ratio = 45.5% (which is declining) and PE is 7.65. I took the sector PE as 23.30. Now the question i'm having is, i can see that the company has done well in the last quarter in terms of the profitability, liquidity & solvency. But it was up to 03.31/2010. How we can map this to today's decision? in other words how we can decide whether we should by #BFL today or not? How we can arrive to such decision ?

    It would be great if you can explain this, that will be helpful for others as well. Again thanking for your generosity to share all these with us.

    Thanks.
  • [Updated] My questions not ans... reply from MarketWatch, 23 Jun 10
  • It is better to buy stocks before the split. Recently I posted if you are sure about splits do not sell your stocks.

    In Sri-Lanka, when Raj Rjaarantam and hedge fund sold their stakes everybody became panic last year and sold their stocks. Now these stocks have appreciated by more than 100%. I said not to panic but to buy.

    Then foreigners sold #JKH. Initially I thought it will come down to Rs.100/-. Now it is trading around Rs.200/-. However, some foreign fund bought JKH again around Rs.170

    I saw clearly uptrend for #JKH and posted breaking their barriers: Rs.180/- Rs.190/-

    Recently even I posted breaking Rs.200/-, their next barriers are Rs.212 and Rs.220.75 in the short run. Rs.220 will be psychological barrier for #JKH.

    Similarity short term psychological barrier for #BFL will be Rs.120/-

    I said once market break 4375 barrier it will go up further. Market broke psychological barrier 4500. This is very important.

    I also said #DIAL will break Rs.9 and Rs.10/

    Surprisntnly whenever there is a foreign inflow in the market, market will go down. Whenever there is a foreign outflow market will go up

    Remember still some foreigners and intelligent medium term and long term investors buy and accumulate selected stocks systematically. Recently Japanese fund bought #comb. It is bullish sign for the market in the medium term and long term. I think more Japanese funds will enter the market in the future.

    Markets will never go straight up and down. We will have stocks, group and sector oriented bull markets, correction time to time during next five years.

    As I said those who have above average knowledge and experience will have edge over others during next four months.

    If we cannot make at least 15% return form the market then we should go to bond and treasury market.

    In short, we should apply different buying and selling strategy for different stocks.



    This is what I posted recently.
    • Next the most important barriers for some stocks!
    • My final breakout point for market was 4375 and I said if it breaks, it will go up further and I expected short-term final market barrier as 4500. It already broke last week. I did not expect it to break so soon. Now we have to study next barriers.

    Following are my new barrier for some stocks: Already some have passed:

    #BFL Rs.90/-, Rs. 98.75, Rs.100/-, Rs, 112.75 ( If BFL break Rs.112.75 barrier it will go up further)

    #HNB Rs.290 and Rs.300/-

    #COMB Rs.285, Rs.290 and Rs.300/-

    #JKH Rs.200/- Rs, 210/- and Rs, 220/-

    #DIAL Rs.10/- Rs.10.50 and Rs.11/-(already I said barrier for #DIAL as Rs.9/- and Rs.10

    #HHL Rs. 160/ Rs.170/-
    #SAMP Rs.320 and Rs.350/-
    #SPEN Rs.1600/- Rs. 1700/-, Rs.1800/-
    #HAYL Rs.320/-, Rs.330 and Rs.350/-

    Stocks prices will go up and down due to following reasons:

    Fundamentals- Strong or weak
    Attractive value and future prospects.
    Crowd behaviour
    Group action
    Type of market players
    General market conditions.


    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Duty waived on impor... reply from ronstyn, 22 Jun 10
  • The Finance Ministry has granted approval to withdraw the duty waiver granted for
    imported wheat grain.This will result in price increase of imported wheat grain.
    Local growers such as #BFL and #GRAN will benefit from this.
  • [Updated] Time to invest in ag... reply from MarketWatch, 22 Jun 10
  • Out of above, companies I upgraded #BFL as an aggressive buy recently due to attractive value, higher ROE, lower p/e and expected future attractive ROE, lower debt level, double digit EPS in the future and strong demand for their products in the future.

    Future earnings and future value is more important for me.

    I think this overlook company will have one of the biggest growths in their business life in the future. Accordingly, their stock prices also will go up further and their current P/E ratio will expand above 20 in the future.

    It is a tortoise plus stock in the CSE.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] #BFL => Buy OR Sell ... reply from MarketWatch, 22 Jun 10
  • Now we should compare with stocks in the same group on future earnings, ROE, current p/e, future p/e., debt level in the future and cash flow in the future etc.

    In the plantations sector companies such as #BALA, #KGAL AND #KVAL are maintaining better working capital positions than other plantations companies.

    #BALA has lowest debt in the group. All of above companies reported EPS over 3 in the current quarter. They will announce attractive EPS in the next quarter as well

    In the poultry group, #BFL has the lowest debt. They have one of the best ROE. In the current year, they reported EPS OF over 8. They are in a position to report not only higher REO but also higher EPS in the next financial year. Some times, they are in a position to report EPS of over 20. They have strong demand for their products now and in the future.

    http://www.ehow.com/about_6390769_debt-versus-equity-issue-important_.html

    Why Is the Debt Versus Equity Issue So Important?

    A company's debt-to-equity ratio indicates its potential to stay in business.
    The debt-to-equity ratio of a company speaks volumes about its riskiness. they're more likely to remain in business and are likely to have better access to equity and debt markets for growth.

    High debt levels can reduce the profitability of a business. Unlike equity, which is paid only when the company is profitable, debt holders are entitled to consistent payments of interest at defined interest rates . Consequently, high debt levels will compel a company to devote significant amounts of money to paying interest expenses. Absent the debt, the money could be used to pay dividends to shareholders or for expansion of the business.

    Access to Capital Markets
    1.
    Extremely high levels of debt can make it difficult to attract additional investors or to receive new loans. When debt levels are high enough that they make the risk of default on future loans too high, banks will become less likely to loan money and will increase required interest rates. Similarly, increases in risk that result from high levels of debt will lead potential shareholders to require higher returns to address the increased risk caused by the high debt.
    Expert Insight
    2.
    Warren Buffett and other proponents of buy-and-hold investment encourage investors to avoid companies that have too much debt. Buffett and others acknowledge the formulaic reality that leverage can be used to make ROE higher. However, because of the potential long-term problems of excessive debt levels, Buffett recommends investing in companies that have strong balance sheets with little or no debt.

    More later. Thanks
  • [Updated] #BFL => Buy OR Sell ... reply from MarketWatch, 22 Jun 10
  • I already said those who have above average knowledge and experience would have edge over others during next four months.

    In the current market, we should go behind markets, value gems. They should have good numbers not only during last five quarters but also at least during next two financial years. Investors should search for attractive stocks that are currently trading at lower p/e relative to their peers.

    According to my tortoise plus strategy, I will look for future earnings and good numbers. I can see it from markets; number one value gem: #BFL.

    Remember #BFL had ROE around 18.37 in 2007/2008.

    Globally 2008/2009 had very difficult period. Still #BFL was managed to make small profit.

    In the current financial year, their EPS is over 8 and they have one of the best ROE in the CSE. Market P/E over 20. P/E ratio of #BFL is less than 9.

    I think they will announce much improved results in the next financial year as well. They will have better ROE, EPS etc.

    What about coming years and new developments.

    We should have reason to buy stocks and sell stocks. We should not buy and sell stocks just because others are buying and selling stocks. We should have our own strategy, time horizon etc


    Growth investors will try to pay higher p/.e even more than 150 if they like. Remember globally some paid P/E ratio of over 150 to tech sector. Finally, tech sector had a strong correction. In Sri-Lanka some hot stocks, hotel, cement etc have P/E ratio of more than 100.

    Lon term Value masters will try to buy stocks with lower P/E. They will study business model and valuation. If they see undervalued great stocks with great potential, they will buy irrespective of market up or down.

    Market P/E is around 23. Still some groups, stocks and sectors trading below 16. When compare with market P/E baking sector is trading below that level> I think around 16 now.

    #BFL is trading below the P/E ratio of 9.

    #BFL will have improved double digit ROE, EPS during next financial year as well. On future earnings #, BFL is more attractive.

    I like to analyse stock on future earnings. Fortunately still, we have some undervalued stocks in the market.

    Recently plantation stocks had more than 10% correction. It thinks they will bounce back soon, their P/E ratio is attractive, and they have some value when compare with other hot stocks.

    For me #BFL is number one markets ‘value gem.

    Some stocks will stay at lower P/E because they will not have any growth in the future.

    More later

    Thanks and Good luck
  • [Updated] I Purchased #CLPL ad... reply from rehan, 22 Jun 10
  • I think their are a lot of better prospects in the market as after doing a quick analysis of #CLPL I found that it's ROE is a low 4.8% while it did bounce back from a loss it doesn't seem very stable in my view but I also haven't fully studied it.

    I bought into #BFL and #LFIN as they each have a ROE over 20% and have been progressively doing well over the last few years and over the last 4 quarters which I look for.

    I've uploaded the financial data I used for my analysis in the post below where you can find the financials for the stocks I mentioned above.

    Extracted Financial Data
    http://investnow.lk/2010/06/21/extracted-financial-data/1702/

    I'm looking to add to my position in each but think that the market needs to take a breather possibly towards the end of the week.

    Also try not to think of your investment in "share" terms but as a "cash" investment as I'd rather hold a 100 shares in a higher ROE company than 10,000 shares in a stock that looks cheap as it's the capital gain that's more important in my view ;)

    Hope this helps :)
  • [Updated] #HAYC a forgotten ge... reply from cse.see, 22 Jun 10
  • #BFL will break Rs.100/- soon
    #KCAB will break Rs.148/- soon
    #RICH will reach to Rs.110/-
    #MGT will reach Rs.54/- soon
    #CIC to break Rs.90/- level
    #LFIN to break Rs.180/- soon
    #BALA will break Rs.44/-
    #KOTA to go above Rs.78/- soon
  • [Updated] How to determine ? reply from MarketWatch, 22 Jun 10
  • On future earnings #BFL WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE AND ATTRCTIVE AND MORE AND MORE UNDERVLAUED
  • [Updated] How to determine ? reply from MarketWatch, 22 Jun 10
  • About market P/E, we can write lot. I think I wrote something in the past in this forum.

    Growth investors will try to pay higher p/.e even more than 150 if they like. Remember globally some paid P/E ratio of over 150 to tech sector. Finally, tech sector had a strong correction. In Sri-Lanka some hot stocks, hotel, cement etc have P/E ratio of more than 100.

    Lon term Value masters will try to buy stocks with lower P/E. They will study business model and valuation. If they see undervalued great stocks with great potential, they will buy irrespective of market up or down.

    Market P/E is around 23. Still some groups, stocks and sectors trading below 16. When compare with market P/E baking sector is trading below that level> I think around 16 now.

    On ROE basis both #BFL and #LFIN attractive. #BFL is trading below the P/E ratio of 9.
    #BFL will have improved double digit ROE, EPS during next financial year as well. On future earnings #, BFL is more attractive.

    I like to analyse stock on future earnings. Fortunately still we have some undervalued stocks in the market.

    Recently plantation stocks had more than 10% correction. It think they will bounce back soon and their P/E ratio is attractive and they have some value when compare with other hot stocks.

    For me #BFL is number one marekets’value gem.

    Some stocks will stay at lower P/E because they will not have any growth in the future.

    More later

    Good luck
  • [Updated] Is #GRAN a good time... reply from MarketWatch, 21 Jun 10
  • Hi Tony12345

    Your question on 30th April

    However has you mentioned, #BFL has prospects. Does it still make sense to buy them @ 49.50? and #BALA @ 40?

    Remember stock are not too high to buy and too low to sell. Depend on the situation.

    Remember we have to consider #BFL has number one markets’ value gem now. I see great value in #BFL now due to their current higher ROE, above average results and future attractive results and much improved higher ROE in the next financial year.

    Some of their barriers in the short to medium term are:

    Rs.100, Rs.112.75 and Rs120/25 and Rs.150.75
    As I expected stocks in the group TAFL, GRAN had good run. #BFL has more leg to go
    Breaking of Rs.27 barrier was very important for #GRAN.
    Now it is trading around Rs.36/-
    BFL broke another two most important barriers recently.
    Good luck
  • [Updated] Invest in stocks, Tb... reply from MarketWatch, 21 Jun 10
  • In addition to #BFL keep an eye on #BALA, other attractive plantations stocks as well.

    As I expected #, TPL is going up today.

    Mr market finally have recognized undervalued stocks and stocks such as #BFL, #LFIN and #BALA are moving up now.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] ANy ideas on the mar... reply from cse.see, 21 Jun 10
  • 1. As I said, #LFIN (LB Finance) Price is going up. (I said in 122/- level. now 137/-)
    2. Clear short-term return from #MGT. will reach to 52/- level today. therafter 57/- level.
    3. Can predict, Today evening session #BFL will hit Rs.80/-

    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
    See below, I said 04 days back, following shares will reach to following levels.....

    #LFIN – LB Finance
    Current Share Price : Rs.122/-
    Last 12 months Profits : 500 Mn
    ROE% : 29
    EPS : 15
    To be adjustable PER : 12
    Expecting Share Price Adjustment : Rs.180/-
    Average Return : 47%

    #KCAB – Kelani Cables
    Current Share Price : Rs.125/-
    Last 12 months Profits : 163 Mn
    ROE% : 16
    EPS : 8
    To be adjustable PER : 20
    Expecting Share Price Adjustment : Rs.160/-
    Average Return : 28%

    #BFL – Bairaha Farms
    Current Share Price : Rs.72/-
    Last 12 months Profits : 130 Mn
    ROE% : 23
    EPS : 8
    To be adjustable PER : 15
    Expecting Share Price Adjustment : Rs.120/-
    Average Return : 66%

    #CIC – CIC Chemical Industries
    Current Share Price : Rs.78/-
    Last 12 months Profits : 130 Mn
    ROE% : 12
    EPS : 7
    To be adjustable PER : 15
    Expecting Share Price Adjustment : Rs.105/-
    Average Return : 34%

    #RICH – Richard Peiris
    Current Share Price : Rs.88/-
    Last 12 months Profits : 580 Mn
    ROE% : 16
    EPS : 5
    To be adjustable PER : 22
    Expecting Share Price Adjustment : Rs.110/-
    Average Return : 25%

    #STAF – Stafford Hotels
    Current Share Price : Rs.42/-
    Last 12 months Profits : 57 Mn
    ROE% : 9
    EPS : 2
    To be adjustable PER : 26
    Expecting Share Price Adjustment : Rs.52/-
    Average Return : 23%
  • [Updated] #HDFC ,#BFL,#TAFL reply from rehan, 20 Jun 10
  • In my view #BFL has a lot further to go as it is backed by some extraordinary financials as of late so it's a stock that you could hold on for longer instead of capping it for just a stock term again. It's has a ROE of 29% which is makes it a very attractive stock.

    Disclosure: Most of my portfolio is in BFL
  • [Updated] Extracted Financial ... reply from rehan, 20 Jun 10
  • Thanks for the kudos guys :D

    @priyanke

    Yep, from what I've looked at so far, #LFIN and #BFL seem to be the best.

    Disclosure: I have stakes in both companies
  • [Updated] Best short-term stoc... reply from MarketWatch, 19 Jun 10
  • Important:

    Stocks are not too high to buy and not too low to sell
    Buy stocks with major up trend
    Buy the number one company in the particular field in terms of earnings and sales growth, ROE, profit margins and product superiority
    Avoid one day and short term trading
    Buy best performing high priced undervalued companies.
    Do not buy stocks on tips, rumours and split announuncements. Study the value and future prospects
    In a major uptrend, stocks will go up and in a major down trend stocks will go down.

    • As I expected we can see the beginning of the poultry rally in the CSE.

    • I said there would be powerful rally in poultry group in the near future.
    •
    • Now we can clearly see price movements in #BFL, #GRAN and #TAFL.

    Remember #BFL has the lowest debt among poultry companies, and has strong balance sheet and attractive ROE, has export market as well and has the most efficient boiler chicks. What about their next year ROE, EPS etc. All will be double digit.

    #BFL is the emerging leader, current leader and future leader.

    BFL has value, fundamental momentum and technical momentum.

    Both GRAN and TAFL have some momentum similar to technical momentum.

    Out of all above stocks, BFL is the number one the safest play in the current market

    It does not mean other stocks are not going up. I already identified their bullish trend from my pattern strategy. However, except #BFL, I do not see my tortoise plus pattern in other stocks yet.
    •
    • Rohit saw some movements in both TAFL and GRAN in his indicator and said wait till June.
    •
    • My newly improved tortoise plus strategy is completely different from other systems.
    •
    • According to tortoise plus strategy, we can identify strong pattern for stocks by monitoring volume and price.
    Now my newly improved tortoise plus strategy is completely different from other value and technical systems. It covers many areas. It will look at each stock, group, sector and country deeply.

    Once stocks break some very important barriers they will become extremely bullish stocks
    Only thing we should look is strength of the company, their business value, future earnings etc. My tortoise plus strategy will go behind this to identify extremely bullish stocks. It will identify major move and major uptrend in stocks in advance. Once we find very attractive stocks, we can just sit and wait.


    •
    •Thanks and good luck!
  • [Updated] Midcap stocks which ... reply from MarketWatch, 18 Jun 10
  • HI PGCR

    In your recent posting, you said.

    If #BFL post EPS above 5 for This Quarter...

    Will u all agaree with me if i say at the end of this financial year #BFL will hit 200/=

    I will not sell below 200.

    Happy Trading.."

    What is your main reason for this?

    Above barrier is my one of the medium and long-term barrier for #BFL depends on some positive factors.


    Progress of another powerful food stock #NEST

    Net asset per share (as at 31/03/2010) 42.12
    EPS current quarter: 8.98
    Trading price: Rs.630/-

    All time low Rs.5.50
    All time high Rs.800/-( reported recently)

    In 2001 they had EPS of 1.44
    In 2002 they had EPS OF 3.26\
    In 2000 and 2003 had EPS around 8
    Gradually increased from EPS OF 11 in 2004 TO EPS of around 30 in 2009.

    According to the future earnings, stock prices of #nest adjusted to higher level gradually.

    Similarly whenever #BFL announce their attractive EPS stock price will adjust accordingly
  • [Updated] #tyre reply from MarketWatch, 18 Jun 10
  • • If we want to take capital gain in this stock, we should have some understanding about this stock. It has its own personality. It will have some volatility but suddenly there will be strong one or two day rallies.
    There will be some speculative trading as well. If you can identify trend and move you can get some tidy profits from TYRE.

    I cannot identify their top at this moment. Tyre can go up further depend on some market players.
    •
    • This is what I wrote on #TYRE 29 days ago.
    •
    • We should have above average skills to play this stock.

    If you have good knowledge about tyre industry and if you can identify future prospects then you should think about buying this stock at the correct time and at the correct price.

    Most important thing is we should able to identify stock pattern and personality in addition to strong fundamentals.

    Different stocks will go up and down at different times.

    For example except #KVAL #WATA, other plantations stocks have completely unpredictable pattern and personality despite strong fundamentals for some stocks. They can go up suddenly and strongly.

    Therefore, it is better to go behind strong tortoise stocks with good pattern, predictable personality together with strong fundamentals in the future.
    •
    • .TYRE EPS 6.4 Net asset per share: 19.44
    Tyre can go up further. Take profit in strong rallies in the future. However still this can go up due to speculative nature of the stock. I have not followed much this stock.

    Based on the future earnings and fundamentals #BFL is more attractive than #TYRE.

    Do not buy and sell stocks suddenly .Pl do some study.

    If you can find better stock than tyre then you can go for it in the future.

    Remember in major up trend stocks will go up and in major down trend stocks will go down.
  • [Updated] Thank you Investnow.... reply from rehan, 17 Jun 10
  • @sampath2009

    NAVPS stands for "Net Asset Value Per Share" and shows how much each share is worth in regard to the company's equity.

    Using the group financials for #BFL ending Mar 31, 2010 you can clearly see that;

    Total Equity (Balance Sheet) divided by the number of issued shares equals the NAVPS.

    Example;

    Total Equity (577,279,759) divided by 16,000,000 being the number of issued shares (see the page after the Cash Flow Statement) equals Rs. 36.08 which is the NAVPS mentioned on that same page ;)

    Not really used with technical analysis but I like to make sure the numbers are good (fundamentals) before checking the technicals to plan my investments.

    Hope this helps ;)

    @stardust

    Thanks for being part of this forum, you yourself are a valued member ;)
  • [Updated] Midcap stocks which ... reply from MarketWatch, 17 Jun 10
  • As I expected we can see the beginning of the poultry rally in the CSE.

    Now we can clearly see price movements in #BFL, #GRAN and #TAFL.

    Remember #BFL has the lowest debt among poultry companies, and has strong balance sheet and ROE above Rs.20, has export market as well and has the most efficient boiler chicks. What about their next year ROE, EPS etc. All will be double digit.

    #BFL is the emerging leader, current leader and future leader.

    BFL has value, fundamental momentum and technical momentum.

    Both GRAN and TAFL have some momentum similar to technical momentum.

    Out of all above stocks, BFL is the number one the safest play in the current market

    It does not mean other stocks are not going up. I already identified their bullish trend from my pattern strategy. However, except #BFL, I do not see my tortoise plus pattern in other stocks yet.

    Thanks and good luck!
  • [Updated] Midcap stocks which ... reply from MarketWatch, 17 Jun 10
  • Pl see some of my following posting last year and in 2010.

    reply from MarketWatch, 11 days ago
    This is what I wrote on #BFL, #GRAN and #TAFL ON 24TH February for another posting!
    • Rise of other two stocks in the sector may be due to sister affects. May be there are other reasons as well.

    Players buy and sell due to some reasons. There should be some reason to buy.

    More positive news will give more bullish trend to the sector.

    Can we guess other peoples’ mind? Crowd will behave different way at different times.

    In case of #BFL has very good success story and they are number one farm company in Sri-Lanka and leader in the subgroup. They have great potential now. Their balance sheet is strong. They have less debt in their books. They have demand for their products both from local market and export market. They can expand their market and products further. They have innovative ideas.

    Currently they have attractive ROE. From next quarter onwards, it will improve further. It will become more and more undervalued. Currently it is trading P/E ratio of below the 8.

    It is one of the most attractive Farm stocks in the world (not only in ASIA but also globally).
    Where will you put your money during next 12 months? pPo

    Posted by me 7th November 2009

    Some of my favorite picks are: # COMB, #BFL, #LFIN, #GRAN # SPEN, #DOCK, #DFCC, #CFIN, #SAMP and #HNB

    Reasons for my selection: Management, Future Growth, Ability to make profits in the future, innovative ideas, ability to expand market share, ability to introduce new products and services in the future, increased demand for products and services, expected increase income due to North and East activities and tourism rebound.

    In addition, I like to follow stocks such as #HAYC #RCL

    However if fundamentals are going to become weak for a longer period then we should sell.

    What are your favorite stocks now? Thanks. Later I added #BALA as well when it was trading around Rs.20/- in November last year.


    Innam posted GRAN and I replied on 10th Feb 2010.
    • There is a success story for #BFL. It is number on Agri Food farm stock in Sri-Lanka.

    They made profits for last two financial years. Their earnings, turnover continuously increased last three quarters. Actually, they produced better than expected results during last three quarters. They have less debt.

    Now In addition to local market they have export market and tourist market as well. Keep eye on their future developments.

    Fundamentally, GRAN is not as strong as BFL. However, because of sister affects and some other reasons stocks such as #GRAN can go up.

    #ATL also can go up.

    Both GRAN AND ATL will have long-term prospects depend on how they are going to mange their business during next five years.

    If Jim Roggers and some other top investors decides to buy stocks, he will definitely go for Food companies with less debt, cheap value and potential. Therefore, companies such as #BFL and #BALA will come to his radar during next five years
    • reply from MarketWatch, 11 Feb 10
    •
    • If #BFL break Rs.60/- in the short run then #GRAN could break Rs.20/-

    Remember Gran traded above Rs.200/ and TAFL above Rs.51/-

    Therefore #BFL will break all above resistances levels during next five years. It is a s number one food farm compnay in Sri-Lanka

    Bairha Farms have concentrated on their core business very well. I don’t find any other Agri-Business stock have concentrated like this in Sri-Lanka.

    They took some timely action by disposing non productive sectors in the past

    I didn’t expect them to export their products so soon to the export market.

    They have valuable land in East part of Sri-Lanka and they are determined to develop their maize project there. Their land should be revalued now. In addition they have some valuable tree such as teak in their land.

    In addition they will introduce new products to the market. They have innovative ideas.
    • reply from MarketWatch, 11 Feb 10
    • We cannot take decision by looking at results of one quarter.

    There should be some pattern of consistency.

    In the recent past also GRAN went up to 16 with big turnover. There was a distribution at that time. And it came down back to around 13 levels. I don’ know how it will react this time.

    On the other hand #BFL went up slowly and systematically breaking all the resistance levels. Now it has arrived at an extremely bullish position due to fundamental and technical reasons. Once they announce their results it will become more and more attractive. Valuation will become more attractive. This is the time to look for cash cows.

    They will break all the records and resistance levels during next five years due to favourable environment for their business.
    • reply from MarketWatch, 11 Feb 10
    • More Agri-Business News

    http://www.asian-agribiz.com/Home/

    Fortune GP Farm ventures into exports

    [4 February 2010] Sri Lanka's Fortune G-P Farms, an associate company of Bairaha Farms PLC, has ventured into the export market, with the export of two consignments of Parent Breeder Chicks to Nepal. The consignments consisted of 6,000 DOC. Until recently, 85% of Sri Lanka's annual requirement was imported, but now Fortune G-P Farms, has the capacity to supply nearly 50% of the local requirement. Bairaha is a vertically integrated poultry producer, engaged in all the aspects of breeding, production and processing with the exception of feed milling

    Bangladesh to import DOC and eggs

    [11 February 2010] Bangladesh has insisted that it will continue to allow poultry imports to ease the shortage in the country, but will not allow imports from India because of a fresh bird flu outbreak. Despite protests from local farmers, Bangladesh approved 17 traders in December, to import day-old-chicks (DOC) and eggs worth BDT 87.2 million (USD 1.25 million), saying the import was necessary to ease the shortage and high prices. The traders earlier planned to import DOC and eggs from India. New criteria however, states that poultry imports are allowed only from countries recognised by OIE to be free from the bird flu.
    •
    • reply from MarketWatch, 6 Apr 10
    • According to Rohit in his technical analysis, he has some trend for GRAN and TAFL.

    Always we should go for strong company, competitor in sub groups.

    Then there are other factors including less debt, strong balance sheet, innovative ideas and new developments etc.

    I think poultry sub group will have improved results in the current quarter. Next quarter will be better than current quarter.
    • reply from MarketWatch, 7 Apr 10
    • #BFL is not a crowded stock. It is a hidden gem.

    It will become real gem if they can maintain higher attractive ROE and if we see some new developments during next 12 months and next five years.

    Their next most important barriers are: Rs.47.75 and Rs.54/-

    Long term barrier is much higher.
    • reply from MarketWatch, 20 Apr 10
    • I always said that nobody cannot predict 100% correctly.

    We can see some fundamentals, future developments, pattern, themes, ideas, trend and action for some stocks time to time. We cannot identify bullish stock by looking at charts.

    We have to follow considerable period and spend time. In the mean times, we have to do some study as well because we do not get inside information, what sophisticated investors institutions and traders are doing etc.

    Charts are good for identifying current trend. Other than that, it is not that useful. Chartist cannot predict next great depression, market crash, market correction and next strong bull trend,

    We have to follow considerable period and spend time. In the mean times, we have to do some study as well because we do not get inside information, what sophisticated investors institutions and traders are doing etc.

    Every stock has different type of pattern. Some have very strong pattern. For example in the past #, KVAL appreciated similar to #BFL. It started from Rs.12, then it broker Rs.20, Rs.30, Rs.40 and Rs.50 barriers gradually. Finally it went up to Rs.78/-

    I thought when commodity market crash it will come down below .Rs.50/-. However, both #WATA #KVAL outperformed the market. Some said plantations stocks are not good for long-term investment. Even blue chips such as #JKH and #HHL came down to below Rs.60/-

    Once they release results, we should study about their ROE, CASH FLOW, and DEBT LEVEL ETC. Every time we see strong results, we have to upgrade their stock price now.

    One thing I want to tell you we must not chase any stock. There are pullbacks in strong market. Did you notice LFIN went from Rs. 40 to above Rs.50. Then it came back to Rs.43 level. Then there were some volatility. Finally broke and went above Rs.60 and stagnated for sometimes. Now it is trading around Rs.83/-

    #COMB, #SAMP, #JKH, #HAL,# HAYC, #HNB, #HASU, #COCO and #SPEN also had pattern and there were so many pull backs. Finally, all of above stocks broke some important barriers.

    It is better to study any stock before we decide to buy any stock. It is not too late to buy. Similarly it is not to high to buy and it is not too low to sell depend on the situation.
    But we must not buy wrong stock too late. Sell right stock too early.

    For example now we must study whether #HAYC is going to go to Rs.300/-. Now it is better than #JKH. For this, we should follow this stock. Without studying, we should not buy any stock suddenly.

    Both Hayles group and Richard Group should benefit from current low interest rate environment and positive business in plantations.

    When compare with cement, hotel and other overvalued and hot stocks we can see at least positive earning per share in companies in above groups, in BFL and plantations companies.

    When compare with cement, hotel, and other hot stocks BFL will have higher ROE, low p/e when compare with market, great value, great demand for their products, lower debt improved cash flow in their book once they release results in the future.

    We cannot see attractive financial ratios in cement and hotel stocks. However, hotel stocks with weak balance sheets are trading even above Rs.80/-.

    Finally so far #BFL broke two important barriers.

    Because of sister affects both #GRAN and TAFL can have some movements. Even Rohit see some movements in stocks such as DIAL, NHL, TAFL and GRAN
    •
    • reply from MarketWatch, 30 Apr 10
    • Pl remember I never give tips and recommendation to buy and sell stocks.

    I only give my ideas on some stocks. Just because members mention stocks here including me, we should not buy and sell stocks. . We should do some study. Sometimes we have to follow considerable period on stocks to buy and sell.

    In major up trends stocks will go up and in major down trends stocks will go down.

    There should be some reason to buy and sell stocks. For me both #BALA and #BFL very attractive due to some reasons.

    When #Dock was trading around Rs.120, some said it has extended and I was strong supporter for that price. It went up to Rs.300/-. Similarly, I saw potential for #SAMP in advance. Now I see greet potential for both #BALA and #BFL.

    It is not too high to buy and it is not too low to sell depend on the situation, fundamentals, great value and some other factors.

    Good Luck!
    •
    • reply from MarketWatch, 30 Apr 1
    •
    • I think there will be powerful rally in poultry stocks and there is a potential to break following barriers.


    #GRAN can break Rs.27.50/-

    #TAFL can break Rs.15/

    And

    #BFL can break Rs.84.75/-. Their long term barriers are much higher.

    We have to closely watch the next most important barriers for #BFL

    Poultry group will have improved earnings in the next two quarters and #BFL will have attractive ROE. They will reduce their debt further.

    #BFL has three markets now.

    Local market including north and east
    Tourist Market- Next year going to be year of visiting Sri-Lanka. Those who live in abroad also will visit Sri-Lanka in 2011.
    Export Market

    Favorable Agri-Economic policy also will benefit Agri-Food companies. Export oriented companies and companies who create more job opportunities can get further benefits.

    Policy makers have identified value of food and beverage sector in Sri-Lanka.

    #BFL is number one Agri-Business/Food Farm Company with great growth potential in Sri-Lanka.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] More return from CSE reply from MarketWatch, 17 Jun 10
  • Out of all #BFL is the number one markets’ value gem due to attractive EPS share and attractive ROE in the next financial year. Sometimes they will have ability to report one of the best ROE during next financial year. May be the second best ROE in the CSE.

    If they can announce EPS OF around 20 next financial year and even if #BFL trade around Rs.120 still it will be attractive at that time. Because P/E will be less than 6. What about their attractive ROE and less debt in the future?

    We have to do more study now.

    Thanks Good luck.
  • [Updated] #LFIN, #RICH, #CIC, ... reply from MarketWatch, 16 Jun 10
  • Investor world is ever changing.

    Some new groups and sectors will take leaderships time to time.

    Those days some said commodity stocks are risky. Remember there will be strong demand for some commodities during next two decades.

    Now there are specialized funds, ETFS etc for Agri-Business group. Some top global investors, top funds including top investment banks prefer agri-business stocks to others.

    Globally we should go behind well-managed best farm stocks with great potential now.

    Now some take poultry as a commodity as well.

    http://www.agmrc.org/commodities__products/livestock/poultry/commodity_poultry_

    Commodity Poultry Profile

    Overview

    The United States is the world’s largest producer and the second largest exporter of poultry meat according to the Economic Research Service (ERS) of USDA. The total farm value of U.S. poultry production in 2008 was $35.9 billion, up 11 percent from 2007. Of that total farm value, broiler production accounted for $22.9 billion, eggs for $8.3 billion, turkey for $4.31 billion and other chicken for $35.9 million (NASS). Of the combined total of U.S. poultry production in 2008, 64 percent was broiler meat, 23 percent was eggs, 12 percent was turkey meat and less than 1 percent was other chicken meat.

    Demand

    Consumption of poultry meat is considerably higher than either beef or pork

    Per capita consumption of poultry steadily increased from 47.3 pounds per capita in 1975 to 104 pounds per capita in 2007. Of that amount, 85.4 pounds was broilers, 1.2 pounds was other chicken and 17.5 pounds was turkey. Increased poultry demand was driven by nutritional concerns about fat and cholesterol levels in beef and also due to a lack of convenience in preparation of beef. Poultry products responded to consumer demands by providing brand-name, value-added products processed for consumers’ convenience and products for use in foodservice.

    Poultry and eggs products are expected to have higher domestic and foreign demand. Consumers demanding low-cost, healthy and convenient meat products will continue to drive poultry increased production.

    Additionally, convenience is an important factor when consumers make food purchases. The trend to eat more prepared and processed foods and the trend to eat more meals away from home is a trend to monitor in the food industry. Value-added poultry products that cater to the ready-to-cook, heat-and-serve or ready-to-eat markets are expected to see continued growth. Egg products and eggs for use in processed and prepared food items are also expected to experience continued growth.

    In short, there will be great demand for well-managed undervalued farm stocks. #BFL is number one farm stock in South Asia.

    More details later.

    ‘Good luck
  • [Updated] Food Outlook reply from MarketWatch, 16 Jun 10
  • Investor world is ever changing.

    Some new groups and sectors will take leaderships time to time.

    Those days some said commodity stocks are risky. Remember there will be strong demand for some commodities during next two decades.

    Now there are specialized funds, ETFS etc for Agri-Business group. Some top global investors, top funds including top investment banks prefer agri-business stocks to others.

    Globally we should go behind well-managed best farm stocks with great potential now.

    Now some take poultry as a commodity as well.

    http://www.agmrc.org/commodities__products/livestock/poultry/commodity_poultry_

    Commodity Poultry Profile

    Overview

    The United States is the world’s largest producer and the second largest exporter of poultry meat according to the Economic Research Service (ERS) of USDA. The total farm value of U.S. poultry production in 2008 was $35.9 billion, up 11 percent from 2007. Of that total farm value, broiler production accounted for $22.9 billion, eggs for $8.3 billion, turkey for $4.31 billion and other chicken for $35.9 million (NASS). Of the combined total of U.S. poultry production in 2008, 64 percent was broiler meat, 23 percent was eggs, 12 percent was turkey meat and less than 1 percent was other chicken meat.

    Demand

    Consumption of poultry meat is considerably higher than either beef or pork

    Per capita consumption of poultry steadily increased from 47.3 pounds per capita in 1975 to 104 pounds per capita in 2007. Of that amount, 85.4 pounds was broilers, 1.2 pounds was other chicken and 17.5 pounds was turkey. Increased poultry demand was driven by nutritional concerns about fat and cholesterol levels in beef and also due to a lack of convenience in preparation of beef. Poultry products responded to consumer demands by providing brand-name, value-added products processed for consumers’ convenience and products for use in foodservice.

    Poultry and eggs products are expected to have higher domestic and foreign demand. Consumers demanding low-cost, healthy and convenient meat products will continue to drive poultry increased production.

    Additionally, convenience is an important factor when consumers make food purchases. The trend to eat more prepared and processed foods and the trend to eat more meals away from home is a trend to monitor in the food industry. Value-added poultry products that cater to the ready-to-cook, heat-and-serve or ready-to-eat markets are expected to see continued growth. Egg products and eggs for use in processed and prepared food items are also expected to experience continued growth.

    In short, there will be great demand for well-managed undervalued farm stocks

    In short, there will be great demand for well-managed undervalued farm stocks. #BFL is number one farm stock in South Asia.

    More details later.

    ‘
    Good luck
  • [Updated] #LFIN, #RICH, #CIC, ... reply from MarketWatch, 15 Jun 10
  • #BFL

    They started to produce the worlds’ most efficient boiler chicks COBB in January this year and it helped them increased their bottom line further. .

    They got their export order for these new boilers. BFL will have to expand their business in the future due to increased demand and they will have to supply not only more and more chickens but also boiler chicks to the industry. They should find new distribution channel as well. They can distribute through CWE outlets as well.

    Definitely, BFL is in a growth path now.

    When you buy stocks, at least we must make sure that they are going to make attractive results for the next four quarters. BFL will have double digit EPS, ROE during next financial year, they also will have treble digit profit and four digit increased turnover (sales) they will reduce their debt level further.

    Once they start their Maize Project fully, when they expand their market including export market further their stock will go above Rs.200 in the medium term and long term.

    Year of 2011 is visit Sri-Lanka. More development will start from 2011. Now it is ASIA CUP, From July tourist numbers will increase rapidly. BFL will have more work in the coming months. People will eat more and more chickens in the future. There will be demand for egg due to demand from hotels.

    Now everybody is announcing stock splits. We never know if BFL go above Rs.120/- they also might announce stock splits.
    • reply from MarketWatch, 14 May 10
    •
    • Pl read my previous posting on BFL to learn more about their subsidiaries including their synergy with global poultry leader and other poultry products etc. They entered export market in January by exporting world most efficient Cobb boiler chicks. They have joined venture with foreign partner to produce Cobb boiler chicks in Sri-Lanka.
    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/focus/cobb/7/cobb-vantress-primary-broiler-breeders

    Cobb-Vantress, Incorporated
    Cobb is the world’s leading supplier of broiler breeding stock and technical expertise for the chicken meat industry.

    Cobb works with customers in more than 90 countries to provide for the growing demand for chicken, helping them to increase production efficiency and improve overall returns. Care for the welfare of the chickens and for the needs of the customers is central to the Cobb philosophy


    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/focus/cobb/59/cobb-500-the-worlds-most-efficient

    Cobb500™
    The worlds most efficient
    The world’s most efficient broiler has the lowest feed conversion, best growth rate and an ability to thrive on low density, less costly nutrition. These attributes combine to give the Cobb500™ the competitive advantage of the lowest cost per kilogram or pound of live-weight produced for the growing customer base worldwide.
    The Cobb500™ has:
    • Lowest cost of live weight produced
    • Superior performance on lower cost feed rations
    • Most feed efficient
    • Excellent growth rate
    • Best broiler uniformity for processing
    • Competitive breeder

    http://www.cobb-vantress.com/AboutUs/CobbHistory.aspx

    How Cobb has become world leader
    Cobb is the world's oldest poultry breeding company. Beginning in 1916 in Massachusetts, USA, Cobb has developed into the global leader in broiler breeding.

    I give below one of my previous posting:

    More about #BFL

    They have characteristics of Aggressive Growth, Growth & Income, Momentum, and Value and they will outperform broad market in 2010 and 2011

    Synergy with Cobb Vantrees Global leader in Poultry

    Have concentrated in on the core business very well

    Took timely action to dispose non-productive areas

    The management have a determination to continue to develop products and process

    Companies have an above average sales organization

    They have good cost analysis and account control-They are consistently winning awards for their accounts from Institute of chartered accountant of Sri-Lanka

    They are not issuing new shares and right issues frequently

    After turnaround, they made profits for the last two years
    So far, current year has announced above average and better than expected results.

    They can produce Cobb boiler chicks : the world’s most efficient broilers locally now and it will improve their bottom line and will enable them to maintain their strong position in the market as the preferred and leading supplier of broiler day-old chicks.

    When they start to expand their market, products BFL will become one of the most sought after stock in the CSE.

    I think in the current financial year they are in a position to increase earnings, , growth and Cash position in addition to attractive ROE and good financial ratios. It will become more undervalued.

    They have limited commercial operation in maize and they are hoping to
    Commence full-scale maize production in the medium term in their land including company land in Trincomale District according to their latest annual report.

    Already they commenced their export and sometimes they will have export orders from Bangladesh as well due to decision to import chicken product from bird flue free country.

    They will have to supply chicken products not only to the local market but also to local and foreign tourist market and export market now. Currently more than 500 local tourists visit daily to Jaffna. What about other cities such as Trincomale, Manner and other north and east cities. They will have to supply chi ken products to north and east as well. This is the reason for slight shortage in chicken and egg in Sri-Lank. There is more demand than supply now. Eventually prices will go up.
    • reply from MarketWatch, 14 May 10
    •
    .

    I give below one of my previous posting:

    More about #BFL

    They have characteristics of Aggressive Growth, Growth & Income, Momentum, and Value and they will outperform broad market in 2010 and 2011

    Synergy with Cobb Vantrees Global leader in Poultry

    Have concentrated in on the core business very well

    Took timely action to dispose non-productive areas

    The management have a determination to continue to develop products and process

    Companies have an above average sales organization

    They have good cost analysis and account control-They are consistently winning awards for their accounts from Institute of chartered accountant of Sri-Lanka

    They are not issuing new shares and right issues frequently

    After turnaround, they made profits for the last two years
    So far, current year has announced above average and better than expected results.

    They can produce Cobb boiler chicks : the world’s most efficient broilers locally now and it will improve their bottom line and will enable them to maintain their strong position in the market as the preferred and leading supplier of broiler day-old chicks.

    When they start to expand their market, products BFL will become one of the most sought after stock in the CSE.

    I think in the current financial year they are in a position to increase earnings, , growth and Cash position in addition to attractive ROE and good financial ratios. It will become more undervalued.

    They have limited commercial operation in maize and they are hoping to
    Commence full-scale maize production in the medium term in their land including company land in Trincomale District according to their latest annual report.

    Already they commenced their export and sometimes they will have export orders from Bangladesh as well due to decision to import chicken product from bird flue free country.

    They will have to supply chicken products not only to the local market but also to local and foreign tourist market and export market now. Currently more than 500 local tourists visit daily to Jaffna. What about other cities such as Trincomale, Manner and other north and east cities. They will have to supply chi ken products to north and east as well. This is the reason for slight shortage in chicken and egg in Sri-Lank. There is more demand than supply now. Eventually prices will go up.

    Thanks and Good luck
  • [Updated] #LFIN, #RICH, #CIC, ... reply from stock SL, 15 Jun 10
  • you are correct Saloka.
    #LFIN to reach Rs.150/- to 160/-
    #RICH to reach Rs.100/- to 115/-
    #CIC.N to reach Rs.92/- to 100/-
    #BFL to reach Rs.95/- to 112/-
    #LION to reach Rs.136/- to 150/-

    but
    this is wrong.boz it's earnings only Rs 8.00cor something (DIST)
    #DIST to reach Rs.150/- to 160/-
  • [Updated] If #BFL post EPS abo... reply from MarketWatch, 15 Jun 10
  • If it adjusts to minimum fundamentals, it should trade around Rs.112/- by now.

    Surprisingly my short-term final barrier for #BFL is Rs.112.75. If it break this barrier it could break my final short term barrier that is Rs.120/-

    When compare with other overvalued stocks #BFL is very attractive. In the current market #BFL is more attractive than both food related stocks #CARG and #SOY.On the other hand, BFL has one of the highest ROE and next financial year will be one of the best periods of BFL. It will break more records in their business life.

    I already said it is an aggressive buy. It is number one markets’ value gem now.

    Everybody should have their own successful strategy and they should select stocks according to their principles and policy. They should not follow others. They should do their own study. For example, WB in this forum has his own selection of stocks. Then Mission has his own type of stocks. In addition, they should take decision according to their experience, knowledge and risk level.

    In short they will have strong higher earrings, higher ROE, less debt and strong cash flow in their books in the next finical year. Sometimes they will have 2nd best ROE in the next financial year after #NEST.

    Your breaking Rs.200 depends on some factors. Remember former leader GRAN traded above RS.200 in the past. BFL has the potential to break Rs.200 barrier in the medium term and long term. We have to keep an eye on their new developments.

    Every time they announce above average results, higher sales, higher EPS, higher ROE, we will have to upgrade the stock.

    Future earnings are more important.

    Remember in a major uptrend pullbacks are opportunity for intelligent investor and traders.



    • This is what CSE. SEE said on #BFL
    • IMPORTANT ***
    EPS as at 31.03.2010 = 8.15
    Sector average P/E Ratio = 14.0 or more
    Share Price to Adjust = 8.15 x 14 = Rs.112/-
    If you go company level P/E is = 9.5 or more
    Then, Share Price to Adjust = 8.15 x = Rs.80/-

    * #BFL Required FUNDAMENTAL adjustment.
    * #BFL is mostly undervalue.
    We should go behind value stocks with strong uptrend and strong pattern now.

    More details later including new developments and other positive factors for poultry group particularity for powerful super BAIRAHA

    Thanks and Good luck.
  • [Updated] If #BFL post EPS abo... reply from MarketWatch, 15 Jun 10
  • If it adjusts to minimum fundamentals, it should trade around Rs.112/- by now.

    Surprisingly my short-term final barrier for #BFL is Rs.112.75. If it break this barrier it could break my final short term barrier that is Rs.120/-

    When compare with other overvalued stocks #BFL is very attractive. In the current market #BFL is more attractive than both food related stocks #CARG and #SOY.On the other hand, BFL has one of the highest ROE and next financial year will be one of the best periods of BFL. It will break more records in their business life.

    I already said it is an aggressive buy. It is number one markets’ value gem now.

    Everybody should have their own successful strategy and they should select stocks according to their principles and policy. They should not follow others. They should do their own study. For example, WB in this forum has his own selection of stocks. Then Mission has his own type of stocks. In addition, they should take decision according to their experience, knowledge and risk level.

    In short they will have strong higher earrings, higher ROE, less debt and strong cash flow in their books in the next finical year. Sometimes they 2nd best ROE in the next financial year after #NEST.

    Your breaking Rs.200 depends on some factors. Remember former leader GRAN traded above RS.200 in the past. BFL has the potential to break Rs.200 barrier in the medium term and long term. We have to keep an eye on their new developments.

    Every time they announce above average results, higher sales, higher EPS, higher ROE, we will have to upgrade the stock.

    Future earnings are more important.

    Remember in a major uptrend pullbacks are opportunity for intelligent investor and traders.


    This is what CSE. SEE said on #BFL
    • IMPORTANT ***
    EPS as at 31.03.2010 = 8.15
    Sector average P/E Ratio = 14.0 or more
    Share Price to Adjust = 8.15 x 14 = Rs.112/-
    If you go company level P/E is = 9.5 or more
    Then, Share Price to Adjust = 8.15 x = Rs.80/-
  • [Updated] Rehan Need Help reply from rehan, 15 Jun 10
  • 1) I do use a simple tool to check out the charts but it's not very sophisticated but if your interested you could use it though it's not yet completed.

    2) Use of ROE

    Download the file below which are the latest financials for #BFL ending Mar 31, 2010 and take the Group "Net Profit for the Period" in the column "Unaudited for the year ended 31.03.2010" in the Income Statement and divide that by the "Total Equity" under the same column name in the Balance Sheet and then multiply that value by 100 to get the percentage return on equity - that's how I calculate it.

    http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/452_1273808041533.%20Quarterly%20FS%20-%2031.03.2010.pdf

    The result should be 22.58% ;)

    Hope this helps ;)
  • [Updated] If #BFL post EPS abo... reply from rehan, 15 Jun 10
  • @early.bird

    I think it might adjust during the next few days giving you the opportunity to collect at a lower rate.

    Perhaps you could collect half now and half later though I'm optimistic it will break into new highs very soon as it's a growth stock; growing very strongly over the last 4 quarters and over the last 4 years in fact :D

    I in fact put an order @ 67 which I may not get but I do think it needs to correct a little.

    Disclosure: My portfolio is heavily invested in #BFL ;)
  • [Updated] Future earnings are ... reply from MarketWatch, 13 Jun 10
  • When compare will market P/E, other stocks #BFL has great value. There are value stocks in the cse now.

    It has value, fundamental momentum and technical momentum.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] Future earnings are ... reply from MarketWatch, 13 Jun 10
  • No company, group is 100% risk free.

    Globally banking and property sector is more vulnerable than other groups except well-managed banks.

    Even in difficult times tourism, travel and food sector will do well. For example, in bad and good times both food companies and tourism sector is doing will in Iceland. However, dome banks collapsed in this country due to financial crisis.

    Companies are diversifying to other sectors when they cannot make profits from core business. Not all diversify companies will succeed in the long run. When they diversify into wrong sectors and business that they lack expertise they will become deworsified companies.

    Now global fund mangers, top commodity investors like to invest in food stocks, well-managed poultry stocks and in agri-business stocks. There are special funds, ETFS as well for Agri-business group. Even now, some poultry companies are outperforming the market despite volatility in the global market. Some global poultry stocks will outperform market in 2010 and 2011. Some top investment banks have major stakes in meat companies now.

    People cannot post pone eating and drinking. However, they can postpone luxury items.

    There will great demand for poultry products in emerging world and even there will be some by products in the future. Demand will increase rapidly for poultry products until 2018. India will not be able to export poultry products in the future like today due to higher demeaned locally and they will have to import. Even their tea demand is increasing gradually and they will export less in the future.

    In a recent global meltdown companies in finance, property, tech. airlines and car companies had very difficult period and some became bankrupt and went on receiverships.

    In Sri-Lanka, we will see rapid development in construction, road development, tourism and agri-business sector during next five years. All of the above companies #DFCC, #JKH, #BFL, #COMB, #HNB, #HHL will benefit.

    In addition #HAYL, #SAMP, NTB , SEYB, PABC and #RICH also will benefit.

    We should invest in development bond as well.

    More details later on new developments.

    Good luck and thanks.
  • [Updated] Next the most import... reply from MarketWatch, 13 Jun 10
  • To my knowledge, they did not have splits.

    It came down due to poor fundamentals and #BFL became an emerging leader in the group.

    First time I got interest on BFL after seeing comparison among poultry companies such as TAFL, GRAN by small brokering research company in Sri-Lanka in 2007.BFL had the lowest debt in their books, and they made good results in the financial year 2008. They had EPS of 5.37 and ROE 18.37.

    Despite higher oil and higher maize prices globally still BFL was able to mange small profit in 2009 as well when other companies in other sectors struggling globally.

    I noticed if this company can mange very well during difficult global conditions, definitely they will outperform market in the future.

    Currently #BFL has one of the highest ROE among companies listed in the CSE. They have reduced their debt further. Their cash position is increasing rapidly now. They have strong demand for their products now.

    BFL already became a leader in the group and as a strong competitor they will outperform market in the future.
  • [Updated] How do you do it Mr ... reply from MarketWatch, 13 Jun 10
  • Companies with accelerating earnings growth are considered momentum stocks. They Show regular and increasing earnings power as demand for the company’s products and services grows.

    As this demand go up, the value of the company’s stock tends to go up as well. This is generally a sign that a company's future is optimistic for the long term because of demand for their products and services.

    Now #BFL has become not only value and fundamental stock but also momentum stock. In short it is a tortoise plus stock now.

    It is number one markets’ value gem now.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] How do you do it Mr ... reply from MarketWatch, 13 Jun 10
  • Hi Priyanke

    I made use my tortoise plus strategy to identify recent barriers for following bull stocks such as:

    #JKH.
    #BFL
    #HHL
    #COMB
    #HNB
    #DIAL
    #SAMP

    #LFIN

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] NEXT BARRIER FOR #SE... reply from MarketWatch, 13 Jun 10
  • I already said next barrier for #GRAN is over Rs.27/ in the short run


    • This is what I said in April. For posting BUKI, #GRAN, #OSEA posted by snowman
    reply from MarketWatch, 30 Apr 10
    • I think there will be powerful rally in poultry stocks and there is a potential to break following barriers.


    #GRAN can break Rs.27.50/-

    #TAFL can break Rs.15/

    And

    #BFL can break Rs.84.75/-. Their long term barriers are much higher.

    We have to closely watch the next most important barriers for #BFL

    Poultry group will have improved earnings in the next two quarters and #BFL will have attractive ROE. They will reduce their debt further.

    #BFL has three markets now.

    Local market including north and east
    Tourist Market- Next year going to be year of visiting Sri-Lanka. Those who live in abroad also will visit Sri-Lanka in 2011.
    Export Market

    Favorable Agri-Economic policy also will benefit Agri-Food companies. Export oriented companies and companies who create more job opportunities can get further benefits.

    Policy makers have identified value of food and beverage sector in Sri-Lanka.

    #BFL is number one Agri-Business/Food Farm Company with great growth potential in Sri-Lanka.
    Some reply maid by VASU on above stocks:

    •
    • Bogala Graphite lanka's Net asset value is Rs 1.81.But it's current price is Rs26?=

    Environmental Resources Investment PLC 's Net asset value is Rs17.7.But it gone up to RS 200/=

    NESTLE Net asset value is Rs33.13.But it gone up to RS 425/=


    Therefore Buki can go Rs 10,000/-.
    wait 1 or 2 Lankam's Net asset value is Rs12.99 But it gone up to RS 97/=

    Lanka cement 's Net asset value is Rs 0.81But it gone up to RS 30/=
    therefore Buki may split there share this 1 st quarter that time price go 10, 000/=
    • month it will reach that level.

    Another reply made by me for #BFL and #GRAN on 20th April


    always said that nobody cannot predict 100% correctly.

    We can see some fundamentals, future developments, pattern, themes, ideas, trend and action for some stocks time to time. We cannot identify bullish stock by looking at charts.

    We have to follow considerable period and spend time. In the mean times, we have to do some study as well because we do not get inside information, what sophisticated investors institutions and traders are doing etc.

    Charts are good for identifying current trend. Other than that, it is not that useful. Chartist cannot predict next great depression, market crash, market correction and next strong bull trend,

    We have to follow considerable period and spend time. In the mean times, we have to do some study as well because we do not get inside information, what sophisticated investors institutions and traders are doing etc.

    Every stock has different type of pattern. Some have very strong pattern. For example in the past #, KVAL appreciated similar to #BFL. It started from Rs.12, then it broker Rs.20, Rs.30, Rs.40 and Rs.50 barriers gradually. Finally it went up to Rs.78/-

    I thought when commodity market crash it will come down below .Rs.50/-. However, both #WATA #KVAL outperformed the market. Some said plantations stocks are not good for long-term investment. Even blue chips such as #JKH and #HHL came down to below Rs.60/-

    Once they release results, we should study about their ROE, CASH FLOW, and DEBT LEVEL ETC. Every time we see strong results, we have to upgrade their stock price now.

    One thing I want to tell you we must not chase any stock. There are pullbacks in strong market. Did you notice LFIN went from Rs. 40 to above Rs.50. Then it came back to Rs.43 level. Then there were some volatility. Finally broke and went above Rs.60 and stagnated for sometimes. Now it is trading around Rs.83/-

    #COMB, #SAMP, #JKH, #HAL,# HAYC, #HNB, #HASU, #COCO and #SPEN also had pattern and there were so many pull backs. Finally, all of above stocks broke some important barriers.

    It is better to study any stock before we decide to buy any stock. It is not too late to buy. Similarly it is not to high to buy and it is not too low to sell depend on the situation.
    But we must not buy wrong stock too late. Sell right stock too early.


    Both Hayles group and Richard Group should benefit from current low interest rate environment and positive business in plantations.

    When compare with cement, hotel and other overvalued and hot stocks we can see at least positive earning per share in companies in above groups, in BFL and plantations companies.

    When compare with cement, hotel, and other hot stocks BFL will have higher ROE, low p/e when compare with market, great value, great demand for their products, lower debt improved cash flow in their book once they release results in the future.

    We cannot see attractive financial ratios in cement and hotel stocks. However, hotel stocks with weak balance sheets are trading even above Rs.80/-.

    Finally so far #BFL broke two important barriers.

    Because of sister affects both #GRAN and TAFL can have some movements. Even Rohit see some movements in stocks such as DIAL, NHL, TAFL and GRAN
  • [Updated] Next the most import... reply from MarketWatch, 12 Jun 10
  • Thank you for answers.

    In every major uptrend, some leaders and emerging leaders will have higher stock prices time to time.

    In the past for examples:

    HNB had higher stock price in the banking group. That was above Rs.500/-
    In plantation some plantation stocks traded above the price of WATA
    In poultry group GRAN traded above Rs.220/-
    In development banking group DFCC traded above Rs.600/-

    In the current major up trend following stocks have higher prices in their respective groups and have become leaders.

    SPEN trading around Rs.1600/-(I said breaking their barriers such as Rs.1000/ going to Rs1500 last year. Recently I mentioned new barriers Rs.1600/. Rs.1700 and Rs.1800 for SPEN

    Banking Group: SAMP trading around Rs.346/- now. Now all three banking giants such as #HNB, #COMB and SAMP are trying to become next leaders

    Plantation Group: WATA is trading above Rs.200/- now. We never know In future i#AGAL, #BALA, KVAL, KGAL or some other plantation companies will become leader.

    Development banking group: NDB had higher stock prices so far. Now suddenly DFCC became the emerging leader.

    Poultry group: #BFL and it is trading around Rs.72/- now.

    Out of all above companies #BFL has the highest ROE and their prospects are great
  • [Updated] Do not sell stocks i... reply from MarketWatch, 12 Jun 10
  • Thank you for answers.

    In every major uptrend, some leaders and emerging leaders will have higher stock prices time to time.

    In the past for examples:

    HNB had higher stock price in the banking group. That was above Rs.500/-
    In plantation some plantation stocks traded above the price of WATA
    In poultry group GRAN traded above Rs.220/-
    In development banking group DFCC traded above Rs.600/-

    In the current major up trend following stocks have higher prices in their respective groups and have become leaders.

    SPEN trading around Rs.1600/-(I said breaking their barriers such as Rs.1000/ going to Rs1500 last year. Recently I mentioned new barriers Rs.1600/. Rs.1700 and Rs.1800 for SPEN

    Banking Group: SAMP trading around Rs.346/- now. Now all three banking giants such as #HNB, #COMB and SAMP are trying to become next leaders

    Plantation Group: WATA is trading above Rs.200/- now. We never know In future i#AGAL, #BALA, KVAL, KGAL or some other plantation companies will become leader.

    Development banking group: NDB had higher stock prices so far. Now suddenly DFCC became the emerging leader.

    Poultry group: #BFL and it is trading around Rs.72/- now.

    Out of all above companies #BFL has the highest ROE and their prospects are great
  • [Updated] Next the most import... reply from MarketWatch, 12 Jun 10
  • Next barriers for some more stocks

    #BFL Rs.90/-, Rs.98.75/-, Rs.112.75 If it brakes Rs.112.75 it will go up further after breaking short term final barrier Rs.120/--
    #LFIN Rs.120/- Rs.130 and Rs.140/-
    #CFIN Rs.420/-, Rs.430 and Rs.440/-
    #DFCC Rs.260/- Rs.270 and Rs.280/-
    #NDB Rs.250/- Rs.260/-

    I will post range bound for some stocks later.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] The Bairaha Family reply from MarketWatch, 12 Jun 10
  • My final breakout point for market was 4375 and I said if it break it will go up further and I expected short-term final market barrier as 4500. It already broke last week. I did not expect it to break so soon. Now we have to study next barriers.


    Following are my new barrier for some stocks: Already some have passed:

    Following are my new barriers for following stocks:

    #BFL Rs.90/-, Rs. 98.75, Rs.100/-, Rs, 112.75 ( If BFL break Rs.112.75 barrier it will go up further)

    #HNB Rs.290 and Rs.300/-

    #COMB Rs.285, Rs.290 and Rs.300/-

    #JKH Rs.200/- Rs, 210/- and Rs, 220/-

    #DIAL Rs.10/- Rs.10.50 and Rs.11/-(already I said barrier for #DIAL as Rs.9/- and Rs.10

    #HHL Rs. 160/ Rs.170/-

    #SAMP Rs.320 and Rs.350/-

    #SPEN Rs.1600/- Rs. 1700/-, Rs.1800/-

    #HAYL Rs.320/-, Rs.330 and Rs.350/-
  • [Updated] The Bairaha Family reply from MarketWatch, 12 Jun 10
  • I think they will declare final dividend at any moment. May be before the annual general meeting.

    Remember I am not good in short term trading and I want to avoid it due to some reasons.

    Mr Market has recognized this stock now and we cannot predict short-term movement of this stock now.

    Only think I can say is: It has higher ROE, higher earnings, lower P/E, great demand for their products, future attractive earnings, value, fundamental momentum and technical momentum.

    I short it is number one markets’ value gem now.

    In every major uptrend, some leaders and emerging leaders will have higher stock prices time to time.

    In the past for examples:

    HNB had higher stock price in the banking group. That was above Rs.500/-
    In plantation some plantation stocks traded above the price of #WATA
    In poultry group GRAN traded above Rs.220/-
    In development banking group #DFCC traded above Rs.600/-

    In the current major up trend following stocks have higher prices in their respective groups and have become leaders.

    #SPEN trading around Rs.1600/-(I said breaking their barriers such as Rs.1000/ going to Rs1500 last year. Recently I mentioned new barriers Rs.1600/. Rs.1700 and Rs.1800 for #SPEN

    Banking Group: #SAMP trading around Rs.346/- now. Now all three banking giants such as #HNB, #COMB and #SAMP are trying to become next leaders

    Plantation Group: #WATA is trading above Rs.200/- now. We never know In future i#AGAL, #BALA, KVAL, KGAL or some other plantation companies will become leader.

    Development banking group: NDB had higher stock prices so far. Now suddenly #DFCC became the emerging leader.

    Poultry group: #BFL and it is trading around Rs.72/- now.

    Out of all above companies #BFL has the highest ROE and their prospects are great.
  • [Updated] The Bairaha Family reply from snowman, 12 Jun 10
  • Will #BFL declare a dividend in the near future?

    At what price do you think the #BFL rally will slow down?
  • [Updated] The Bairaha Family reply from MarketWatch, 12 Jun 10
  • http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/10720/fortune-chooses-smart-for-new-gps-venture-in-sri-lanka
    Saturday, July 15, 2006

    Fortune chooses Smart for new GPS venture in Sri Lanka

    THE NETHERLANDS - Fortune GP Farms, the new LKR 100 million venture recently launched by leading Sri Lankan integrators Bairaha Farms Ltd (BFL) and Midland Breeders in partnership with Hybro B.V. of the Netherlands, has selected Smart hatchery technology from Pas Reform, to establish the country's most advanced Grand Parent Broiler Breeder Farm and hatchery operations to date.

    “We selected Pas Reform's Smart incubation system primarily to improve day old chick uniformity, which is an important prerequisite to optimising the condition of the day old chicks”, says Mr. Yakooth Naleem, managing director of Fortune GP Farms.

    Pas Reform's widely acclaimed Smart incubation system has been designed specifically to meet this requirement, along with meeting the challenges presented by genetic advancement in modern breeds and the optimisation of post-hatch performance.

    Fortune GP Farms has been set up in a remote 100-acre site off Dambulla, with its state-of-the-art hatchery located in a separate, 10-acre plot. The new venture is capable of producing 70 percent of the local poultry sector's parent stock requirements, which until the launch of Fortune GP Farms have had to be imported.

    “The availability of locally hatched broiler breeder parents will produce significant savings for local poultry farmers,” explained Mr. Naleem, “as this negates the need to pay import duty, L/C charges or customs levies - and at the same time, avoids the hassles attached to clearing live cargo from customs.

    “Our chicks will also quite naturally be in much better condition when supplied,” he continued, “because they will travel much shorter, domestic distances and spend less time in transit than imported livestock.”

    Pas Reform's experienced project management team has worked in partnership with Fortune to install SmartSet™ setters, SmartHatch™ hatchers, the SmartDrive™ incubator control system and the SmartCenter™ hatchery management information system. The Dutch hatchery technology company also delivered the complete hatchery ventilation system.

    “Working with Pas Reform has been a pleasure”, concluded Mr. Naleem. “From start to finish, their project team listened carefully to our requirements to deliver the planning and installation on time and in budget.”

    NB: Fortunately, recently their former boiler chick supplier was acquired by cobb-vantress. Now BFL can supply. Cobb boiler chicks: the world’s most efficient broilers locally. This may be main reason to get export orders now.

    You can learn more about cobb boiler chicks from following website.

    http://www.cobb-vantress.com/

    Cobb Purpose
    `Serve our customer through the use of innovative research and technology to make protein healthy and affordable for everyone`

    http://www.cobb-vantress.com/Distributors/DistributorList.aspx

    Fortune G-P Farms (Lanka) LTD C/O Bairaha Farms PLC 2nd Floor, 407, Galle Road, Colombo 03, Sri Lanka
    Tel: +94 11 2 573055/+94 11 2 575255 Fax: +94 11 2 575256
    E-mail: bairaha@cga.lk


    More about websites related to #BFL

    BAIRHA Launched new web

    http://bairahalk.com/

    Farms PLC. is the pioneer quality chicken producer in Sri Lanka. Bairaha Farms PLC. and its subsidiary companies are engaged in integrated poultry production including in the processing of chicken and value added processing of meat and production of similar day-old-chicks

    Bairaha Farms PLC. is the pioneer quality chicken producer in Sri Lanka. Bairaha Farms PLC. and its subsidiary companies are engaged in integrated poultry production including in the processing of chicken and value added processing of meat and production of similar day-old-chicks

    http://bairahalk.com/certifications.php

    Recent awards

    Certifications

    HACCP

    HACCP-1

    Annual Report Award 2009

    ISO 22000

    ISO 22000-1

    • This is what I said on 4th April 2010.
    •
    • According to intelligent investors #BFL has all the signs of themes, patterns, trends, fundamentals, technical, continues pivot points, breaking resistance levels etc to become on of the most bullish stocks in the CSE.

    There were two developments last month. Policy makers increased maximum price for one kg of Chicken. Second is policy makers are going to enforce maximum selling price for maize. Both steps will contribute to the profit margin of BFL.

    BFL has concentrated on their core business very well. BFL has almost everything in poultry industry except MAIZE. According to their latest annual reports, they have limited commercial operation in maize and they are hoping to get all maize requirements from their own maize project in the future. For this purpose, they are hoping to make use their land in Trincompale as well. Now land price have skyrocketed in East coast due to demand from hotel sector. Their land value also should revalue now.

    Globally many diversified companies have ended up with failure due to too many diversifications into businesses that they cannot understand and that they cannot manage successfully.

    I think poultry playes will have opportunity to export not only chicken, chicks but also maize as well in the future due to favorable Agri-Business policy in Sri-Lanka.

    Currently there is strong demand for both chicken and egg in Sri-: Lanka. It is same in some other countries including south Asian countries. In some south Asian countries broiler chick and chicken prices have doubled due to shortage in poultry products. Even Bangladesh wants to import chicken other than India. I think Sri-Lanka will get this opportunity as well

    I think BFL will have excellent opportunities expand their business further due to strong demand form local, tourist and export market.

    Already they declared interim dividend, they should not declare higher final dividend, and they should make use of those money to expand their business now to generate higher shareholder value for shareholder.


    Globally selected best-managed poultry food companies will outperform general market in 2010 and 2011.

    #BFL is best-managed poultry company in Sri-Lanka. It is the best-managed agri-business company in Sri-Lanka. They have concentrated on their core business very well.

    I am looking forward for their next two most important resistances (barriers). I am very bullish on #BFL now.

    I have reason for that.

    My next the most important resistance levels for #BFL are: Rs.43.75 and Rs.54/-

    Their medium term and long term resistance level is: Rs.230/-

    This mainly depends on some factors:

    Maintaining higher ROE during next five years
    Improving cash flow almost every year
    Maintaining strong balance sheet while reducing their debt further
    Other new developments (Management has some innovative ideas)
    Maintaining winning awards for their accounts from Institute of chartered accountants of Sri-Lanka

    BFL has following markets for their products:

    Local Market
    Tourist Market
    Export Market

    It has all characteristics to become number one farm, food and Agribusiness Company in Sri-Lanka. It will become one of the emerging leaders in the CSE in the future if they can make use of future opportunities in both local and global market.

    In Sri-Lanka, policy makers finally have identified value of Agri-business sector in Sri-Lanka. There will be plenty of export opportunities for this sector during next two decades. There will be strong demand for some food products not only during next five years but also during next two decades. Productive and innovative companies will bring valuable foreign exchange during next two decades.


    More about #BFL

    They have characteristics of Aggressive Growth, Growth & Income, Momentum, and Value and they will outperform broad market in 2010 and 2011

    Synergy with Cobb Vantrees Global leader in Poultry

    Have concentrated in on the core business very well

    Took timely action to dispose non-productive areas

    The management have a determination to continue to develop products and process

    Companies have an above average sales organization

    They have good cost analysis and account control-They are consistently winning awards for their accounts from Institute of chartered accountant of Sri-Lanka

    They are not issuing new shares and right issues frequently

    After turnaround, they made profits for the last two years
    So far, current year has announced above average and better than expected results.

    They can produce Cobb boiler chicks : the world’s most efficient broilers locally now and it will improve their bottom line and will enable them to maintain their strong position in the market as the preferred and leading supplier of broiler day-old chicks.

    When they start to expand their market, products BFL will become one of the most sought after stock in the CSE.
  • [Updated] #BFL reply from MarketWatch, 11 Jun 10
  • If government decide to import it will be temporary and only quantity shortage will be imported. Because policy makers want to develop agri-business and want to see self sufficient in Maize. This is one of the positive steps taken by the policy makers for the long run sustainability and development of Agri-Business sector and particularity poultry group.

    Policy makers have to think about maize farmers, poultry farmers and consumers etc.
    Policy makers already increased maximum selling price for chicken to help poultry farmers.

    Currently there is a shortage in poultry products due to strong demand. Demand will increase further due to increased local and foreign tourists. In addition, there is a great demand form restaurants in north and east as well.

    Year of 2011 going to be year of visit Sri-Lanka. More visitors will visit Sri-Lanka in 2011.

    There is another problem in importing poultry products. They cannot import from India due to virus threat and only option is to import from USA, UK and Australia. Therefore, cost will be higher.

    Nepal originally imported chicks from countries such as Australia and now they see it is easy to import chicks from BFL in Sri-Lanka. They say they can save time and also they can reduce cost.

    Now Nepal has banned importing poultry products from India and they just began to import chicks from #BFL in Sri-Lanka now. Even Bangladesh is going to stop importing poultry products from India. Currently there is a shortage in many countries and chicken and chick prices have doubled in some countries.

    With increased middle class in India and China, tea and meat prices will go up further in the coming years. I think #BFL will have opportunity to export to other markets including India in the future due to demand for quality food products.

    In short, poultry prices will go up further due to higher demand from emerging economies


    • Why do we see higher prices in chicken and egg in some counties now?

    Posted by me in Feb 2010
    •
    •
    • In Sri-Lanka, egg and chicken prices have gone up due to demand. Now Bangladesh also going to import chicken and boiler chicks from bird flue free country and they want to avoid India. Sri-Lanka is the only bird flue free country in South Asia. Therefore, there will be export orders for chicken products from Bangladesh in the future.

    Due to higher demand, there are shortages in chicken in many countries including Sri-Lanka with slight shortage.

    http://www.dailymirror.lk/print/index.php/business/127-local/2282.html

    According to Bairaha Farms Managing Director Yakooth Naleem, demand has outstripped supply

    Attributing the current slight shortfall to excessive demand, he went on to say: "It is impossible for the industry to keep up. Last month it was Christmas and now it is the elections. Hence, the consumption of chicken had tremendously increased. As a result of the price of fish being unstable, the public opts for the next most economical option, which is chicken.

    http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Regional/Lahore/13-Jan-2010/Egg-prices-fly-high
    Egg prices fly high

    Published: January 13, 2010

    • LAHORE - With add to injury, now the egg is no more in the access of the poor, as egg prices have soared to record high of Rs 110 per dozen here in the provincial metropolis on Tuesday. Market dealers claimed that the prices shot up owing to the huge gap between supply and demand of the commodity.

    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/19302/rising-prices-blames-on-growing-strong-demand

    Rising Prices Blames on Growing Strong Demand

    INDIA - Strong demand is pushing up the prices of chicken and eggs more than usual during this winter.

    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/18431/chicken-egg-prices-up-on-hopes-of-demand

    Chicken, Egg Prices Up on Hopes of Demand

    • TAMIL NADU, INDIA - Egg prices have increased 10 per cent in the past fortnight, while chicken prices have gone up by over 30 per cent during the same period on hopes of rise in demand

    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/19362/will-russias-increased-poultry-demand-be-met

    Will Russia’s Increased Poultry Demand Be Met?

    TURKEY - Following a recent decision by the Russian government to increase its poultry imports from Turkey to 500,000 tons annually, Turkish poultry producers have voiced concerns that the sector may not actually be able to meet this demand.
    http://www.worldpoultry.net/news/philippines-increase-in-poultry-demand-seen-in-2011-id4742.html

    Philippines: increase in poultry demand seen in 2011
    //11 Jan 2010

    • Poultry is one of the growing sectors in Philippine agriculture with one company projecting an increase in demand by as much as 46 percent in 2011 compared to the demand in 2007.
    Even records from the Department of Agriculture (DA) showed that the poultry subsector registered a 3.46 percent output gain in 2009.

    http://www.worldpoultry.net/news/poultry-prices-skyrocket-in-nepal-id1663.html

    Poultry prices skyrocket in Nepal
    //27 Aug 2007
    The ban of parent chick imports into Nepal from countries suspected of bird-flu has triggered a shortage of chicken and eggs, resulting in a fresh price hike in poultry products.

    We are preparing to import chicks from Sri Lanka as bird-flu has not been detected there and flight schedule from there to Nepal is also convenient. But it will take time."

    http://agritrade.cta.int/en/Commodities/Poultry-sector

    Poultry sector

    Poultry trade and prices stable despite global downturn

    There is broad agreement across all projections on the longer-term trends. Up to 2018 the meat sector is expected to continue to grow by an average of 1.9% per annum under the impact of population growth and increased income levels in developing countries. The poultry sector will experience by far the highest rates of growth in meat consumption – some 2.3%, compared to 1.8% for pork and sheep meat and 1.3% for beef

    By 2018 poultry meat will dominate meat consumption

    In short best managed poultry companies with synergy with top global poultry players will benefit most not only in the short run but also in the long run due to higher demand, increased consumption in the future.

    Bairah Farms (BFL) in Sri-Lanka have synergy with USA based Cobb Van trees Global leader in Poultry (recently acquired by HYDRO B.V their former grandparent breeder chicks suppliers). Now BFL is in a position to supply the world’s most efficient broiler chicks Cobb not only to the local market but also to the export market.

    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/17768/supply-demand-pushes-up-chicken-pri Tuesday, May 19, 2009ces-in-nepal

    Supply/Demand Pushes up Chicken Prices in Nepal

    In Bangladesh

    http://www.ittefaq.com/issues/2010/02/13/news0693.htm
    • Rice, broiler chicken, mug, sugar prices up

    http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/more.php?news_id=102151

    Price of poultry birds shot up by 15 per cent to Tk 150 a kilogram in a span of one week at the retail market in the city, which traders blame on higher production cost.
    The price of poultry birds has been increasing since last few years and the gap between the demand and the supply is also widening, industry people said.

    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/20274/poultry-companies-invest-to-meet-projected-demand

    INDIA - The consumption of chicken meat is set to double by 2014-15, according to the top poultry companies, which are investing heavily to meet the projected increase in demand
  • [Updated] LFIN - solid financi... reply from MarketWatch, 11 Jun 10
  • Now others are writing research reports on #LFIN

    Once #BFL pass Rs.100/- barrier some analysts will write research report on #BFL as well.

    I want to tell you here one good research team in Sri-Lanka representing small brokering house mentioned about BAIRAHA two years back. I really got interested in BFL after that.

    This what I posted on November 2009.

    Where will you put your money during next 12 months?nthP

    Posted on Nov 2009.

    Some of my favorite picks are: # COMB, #BFL, #LFIN, GRAN,SPEN, DOCK, #DFCC, CFIN, #SAMP and #HNB

    Reasons for my selection: Management, Future Growth, Ability to make profits in the future, innovative ideas, ability to expand market share, ability to introduce new products and services in the future, increased demand for products and services, expected increase income due to North and East activities and tourism rebound.

    In addition, I like to follow stocks such as HAYC, RCL

    Later I added #BALA to the list.

    However if fundamentals are going to become weak for a longer period then we should sell.

    What are your favorite stocks now? Thanks.
  • [Updated] LFIN - solid financi... reply from rehan, 11 Jun 10
  • @MarketWatch

    Yeah. Since you first mentioned it in a reply (below) it has risen over +200% ;)

    ---

    What about #SERV, #KHL, #MRH and #STAF..?
    http://investnow.lk/2009/09/22/what-about-serv-khl-mrh-and-staf/129/321/

    What about poultry sector? I think this sector will have rapid growth during next 18 months

    Even during next six months, they will have above average growth.

    #BFL will be clear winner in this sector due to so many positive factors. In the near term it will brake their all time high of RS.31/- and thereafter it will go above Rs.50/- in the medium to long run due so many positive factors such as expansion of business, new market, new products etc.

    In the Finance and Banking sector #PABC, #CFIN and #LFIN is very attractive due to their attractive return on equity, earning per share and future growth.

    However, I suggest investors should invest in what they know very well.

    ---

    @Suran

    #CFIN doesn't seem to have performed very well over the last 2 quarters; Q3 and Q4 2009 ending Mar 31, 2010 with revenue's up just +1% while Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) was down -9% along with it's EPS down -11% to 14.69 for Q4 though the Q3 was alright with revs up +4% and NPAT up +22% and EPS up +18%.

    NAVPS at the end of the year was 449.57 but over the last 3 years since Mar 08 things seemed to have slowed. Revenues went from +21% to +15% to just +3%, 7.6b for the year while NPAT slowed from +8% to -6% to -5% along with EPS +8% to -7% to -7% and even NAVPS slowed +18% to +15% to +11% and the Return on Equity (ROE) was just 11.46% for the year ended Mar 2010 while in Mar 2008 it was 17% compared to #LFIN which has an ROE of 28.5% increasing from 21.1% in Mar 2008 so given the numbers I think it may be time to move on to a better investment as the market will sooner or later catch up the numbers. CFIN was stagnate for the last 6 months ;)

    Hope this helps.
  • [Updated] #BFL reply from MarketWatch, 10 Jun 10
  • We have to upgrade this stock now due to attractive EPS, ROE, great demand for their products etc.

    Their current year EPS is more than 8.

    In some stocks, they do not have EPS; some times, they will have EPS of less than 1. But still their stocks are trading above Rs.70/-

    If they announce around EPS 3 in every quarter, they will have around 12 EPS for the next financial year.

    If they announce EPS over 4 in every quarter, they will have over 14 EPS for the next financial year

    Remember former leader #GRAN traded above Rs.200/-

    Now #BFL can break this barrier too if they become successful in the future developments and if they can maintain their higher ROE during next five years.

    Remember future earnings are more important. When we see future fundamentals are going to become weak and if stocks become extremely over valued we should sell.

    Every time when we see above average results and better than expected results, we should upgrade stocks.
  • [Updated] JKH Break 200/- mark... reply from MarketWatch, 10 Jun 10
  • Following are my new barriers for following stocks:

    #HNB Rs.290 and Rs.300/-

    #COMB Rs. 285, Rs.290 and Rs.300/-

    #BFL Rs.90/- and Rs.100/-

    #JKH Rs.200/- Rs, 210/- and Rs, 220/-

    #DIAL Rs.10/- Rs.10.50 and Rs.11/-(already I said barrier for #DIAL as Rs.9/- and Rs.10

    #HHL Rs. 160/ Rs.170/-
  • [Updated] Will #BFL go above t... reply from MarketWatch, 10 Jun 10
  • As I expected #BFL broke another important barrier Rs.70/- today. Market broke 4500 barrier.

    We have to do more study now.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] Will #BFL go above t... reply from MarketWatch, 10 Jun 10
  • When compare with other hot stocks with extended P/E, loss-making companies, over valued companies still #BFL has great value

    In the past #GRAN was the leader in the group and it traded above Rs200/ - then.

    #BFL is the current leader, emerging leader and future leader in the group.

    Only few companies have attractive ROE in the CSE. Now they have great demand for their products

    They have three markets now

    Local Market
    Tourist market
    Export market

    I already said those who have above average knowledge would have edge over others during next five years.

    Stocks are not too high to buy and not too low to sell depend on the general market condition, experience and knowledge.

    Some said when #HNB, #comb is trading around Rs.200 they are over extended. Similarly some said when #CFIN trading around Rs.250 and when #samp was trading
    Around Rs.250/- over extended.

    For me #BFL is number one markets’ value gem in the CSE. If #BFL maintain higher ROE in the coming years it will become one of the much sought after stocks in the CSE.

    We should have reason to buy and sell stocks in the CSE.

    We do not do any manipulation in this forum and in the market. We only give our ideas. I already said when members post their stocks to study first. Not to rely on tips.

    Once they announce above average results in the next quarter (when compare with last year) #BFL will go up further just like #LFIN.

    In short, there is a great value in this stock now.

    Thanks.
  • [Updated] Will #BFL go above t... reply from rehan, 10 Jun 10
  • @chamila

    Thanks for explaining your position. I think you are right when you say we should think before making any investment and study it to make sure our investment is in line with our values.

    I think however that it's more logical to suggest members to boycott eating meat of any kind including fish before deciding to avoid a stock that has been performing exceptionally well due in this case to the demand for their products.

    Investing in the stock market isn't like running an actual business as it's usually just the numbers that encourage us to invest in a certain stock and in my view if the trading floor resembled that of the slaughter house then I myself would certainly be turned off from investing but that however is not the case.

    If however #BFL makes requests to increase it's capital and that capital would directly be used to run it's business then I will certainly think twice before investing.

    Regarding your point on manipulation I'd have to disagree as the numbers don't lie.

    #BFL has consistently performed during the last 3 quarters; Q2, Q3 and Q4 2009 growing in revenue up +3, +14 and +21% with EPS up +95, +279 and +724% with an ROE of 23% for the year ended Mar 31, 2010.

    It has also been performing well over the last 3 years; 2008, 2009 and 2010 with revenue up +30, +13 and +12% to 2b and EPS up +1474, -97, +4994% to 8.15 which makes it a very attractive investment from an investors' point-of-view.

    I don't try to make assumptions on price but I'm quite positive on the stock price breaking new highs in the coming quarters if the market continues up.

    Your right that this is not an investment for everyone so thanks for highlighting it as I think our members should appreciate that.

    Thank you :)
  • [Updated] #Lfin reply from Mohan, 10 Jun 10
  • You are correct vasu
    #BFL EPS is Rs.14.45.
    therwfore it is good price to buy now.
    it will break Rs150.00 soon.
  • [Updated] Will #BFL go above t... reply from sampath2009, 9 Jun 10
  • Hello Chamila,

    Your so funny, we are not promoting "eating chicken" , just stock s !
    looks like vegetarian ! #BFL is only company dear , do not worry for other things !
  • [Updated] Will #BFL go above t... reply from rehan, 9 Jun 10
  • @vkulunu

    Possible. Unless the market performs extremely well tomorrow a small correction can be expected I think especially from the stocks that ran up quite quickly over the last few days.

    @early.bird

    I'm no expert but just a student of the market ;)

    In my view #BFL is indeed a buy (errr, though you should do your own research first *disclaimer*) as I myself have collected a little and may continue doing so if it proceeds higher thus reconfirming my analysis.

    Check out the following;

    http://www.stockit.biz/stocks/index.php?symbol=BFL

    http://www.stockit.biz/stocks/chart.php?symbol=BFL&&chart=candlestick&&goback=3-months

    I suggest you also read about the CAN SLIM method;

    http://www.investors.com/Education/Default.aspx

    Hope this helps ;)
  • [Updated] Will #BFL go above t... reply from vkulunu, 9 Jun 10
  • Can't we expect a bit reduction in #BFL price as banking stocks(NTB & PABC) during yesterday and today?

    Market Seems to be bit slower down.turn over is around 1.4Bil.
  • [Updated] Will #BFL go above t... reply from rehan, 9 Jun 10
  • @early.bird

    #BFL is a great stock though it may be over extended given it has done very well over the last few days. You may be able to get it at 65 levels over the next few days so maybe you can get half at the current price and get the other half during the pullback?

    Only a suggestion ;)
  • [Updated] Will #BFL go above t... reply from early.bird, 9 Jun 10
  • Dear MW,

    I read lot of about #BFL from this forum.
    I wish to buy arround 4000 shares of #BFL @ rs.67/- to 69/- tomorrow.
    Please tell me, Is this profitabal or not?
    Can #BFL break Rs.90/- target with their next results?
    What is your fair target value for #BFL?

    THANKS.
  • [Updated] Will #BFL go above t... reply from MarketWatch, 9 Jun 10
  • If CSE break 4500 it will go up further. Even we can expect 5000. We should study next barriers now.

    NTB, HASU,DIPD, CHMX, MBSL and #BFL all were my hidden gems last year.

    Some other stocks including #BALA added later. At that time, stocks such as SAMP. DOCK, LLUB and AHUN were gems. Now #BFL has taken the place and it has become markets’ value gem now.

    Out of above stocks. I upgraded #BFL as number one Markets’ value gem. As I expected, up to now it has surpassed stocks prices of #NTB, #MBSL, #HASU.

    In the next stages, powerful #BFL should pass stock prices of food related stocks such as #KFP, #LMF, #CARG and even #SOY if they can maintain higher ROE, higher earnings, lower debt, positive cash flow and strong balance sheet in the future. New developments will make #BFL more and more attractive in the future and it will become more undervalued.

    Following are my new barriers for following stocks:

    HNB Rs.290 and Rs.300/-

    #COMB Rs. 285, Rs.290 and Rs.300/-

    #BFL Rs.90/- and Rs.100/-

    #JKH Rs.200/- Rs, 210/- and Rs, 220/-

    #DIAL Rs.10/- Rs.10.50 and Rs.11/-(already I said barrier for #DIAL as Rs.9/- and Rs.10

    #HHL Rs. 160/ Rs.170/-
  • [Updated] Will #BFL go above t... reply from MarketWatch, 9 Jun 10
  • If CSE break 4500 it will go up further. Even we can expect 5000. We should study next barriers now.

    #NTB, #HASU,#DIPD, #CHMX, #MBSL and #BFL all were my hidden gems last year.

    Some other stocks including #BALA added later. At that time, stocks such as SAMP. DOCK, LLUB and AHUN were gems. Now #BFL has taken the place and it has become markets’ value gem now.

    Out of above stocks. I upgraded #BFL as number one Markets’ value gem. As I expected, up to now it has surpassed stocks prices of #NTB, #MBSL, #HASU.

    In the next stages, powerful #BFL should pass stock prices of food related stocks such as #KFP, #LMF, #CARG and even #SOY if they can maintain higher ROE, higher earnings, lower debt, positive cash flow and strong balance sheet in the future. New developments will make #BFL more and more attractive in the future and it will become more undervalued.

    Following are my new barriers for following stocks:

    #HNB Rs.290 and Rs.300/-

    #COMB Rs. 285, Rs.290 and Rs.300/-

    #BFL Rs.90/- and Rs.100/-

    #JKH Rs.200/- Rs, 210/- and Rs, 220/-

    #DIAL Rs.10/- Rs.10.50 and Rs.11/-(already I said barrier for #DIAL as Rs.9/- and Rs.10)
  • [Updated] #BALA reply from MarketWatch, 9 Jun 10
  • If CSE break 4500 it will go up further. Even we can expect 5000. We should study next barriers now.

    #NTB, #HASU,#DIPD, #CHMX, #MBSL and #BFL all were my hidden gems last year.

    Some other stocks including #BALA added later. At that time, stocks such as SAMP. DOCK, LLUB and AHUN were gems. Now #BFL has taken the place and it has become markets’ value gem now.

    Out of above stocks. I upgraded #BFL as number one Markets’ value gem. As I expected, up to now it has surpassed stocks prices of #NTB, #MBSL, #HASU.

    In the next stages, powerful #BFL should pass stock prices of food related stocks such as #KFP, #LMF, #CARG and even #SOY if they can maintain higher ROE, higher earnings, lower debt, positive cash flow and strong balance sheet in the future. New developments will make #BFL more and more attractive in the future and it will become more undervalued.

    Following are my new barriers for following stocks:

    #HNB Rs.290 and Rs.300/-

    #COMB Rs. 285, Rs.290 and Rs.300/-

    #BFL Rs.90/- and Rs.100/-

    #JKH Rs.200/- Rs, 210/- and Rs, 220/-

    #DIAL Rs.10/- Rs.10.50 and Rs.11/-(already I said barrier for #DIAL as Rs.9/- and Rs.10)
  • [Updated] Will @JINS go up reply from rehan, 8 Jun 10
  • @MarketWatch

    Thanks. I recently bought back into #BFL after I identified a pattern as well as #LFIN which I'm quite bullish on as their last few quarters + last 3 years have been quite spectacular (I'll post about it). Then I bought into #LWL yesterday as the market seemed very positive.

    If the market manages to swing upwards tomorrow like it did on Monday then I'll reaffirm by position but if not I just hope I bought at the right price ;)

    I remember, in fact I should look further into #GRAN - have been taking some time to record some financial data which helped me identify some great stocks and I hope to make this data available to the forum by the end of the week.
  • [Updated] Fundamentaly Strong ... reply from MarketWatch, 7 Jun 10
  • #BFL is an extremely bullish tortoise plus stock now.

    I think this stock will become over Rs.100 stock sooner than later due to attractive value, great demand for their products, new markets, positive cash flow in the future, higher ROE, higher earnings in the future, new developments, the worlds’ the most efficient chicks COBB, Synergy with Cobb Vantrees Global leader in Poultry, current, emerging and future leader.

    We must always think about future earnings, great value and good business model.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] Fundamentaly Strong ... reply from MarketWatch, 7 Jun 10
  • Hi CSE, SEE,

    What about future earnings, higher ROE in the future, less debt and new developments etc.

    If they can maintain EPS around 3 per quarter they will get more than 12 EPS for the next financial year. If they announce more than 4 they will have EPS of over 16 during next financial year.

    More tourists will visit in 2010 and 2011. What about Year of visit Sri-Lanka 2011.
    There will be more demand for poultry products.

    Following are my new barriers for #BFL Rs.84.75 and Rs.90/-

    If it breaks Rs.100, it will go up further.


    Good luck.
  • [Updated] #BFL reply from MarketWatch, 6 Jun 10
  • This is what I wrote on #BFL, #GRAN and #TAFL ON 24TH February for another posting!
    • Rise of other two stocks in the sector may be due to sister affects. May be there are other reasons as well.

    Players buy and sell due to some reasons. There should be some reason to buy.

    More positive news will give more bullish trend to the sector.

    Can we guess other peoples’ mind? Crowd will behave different way at different times.

    In case of #BFL has very good success story and they are number one farm company in Sri-Lanka and leader in the subgroup. They have great potential now. Their balance sheet is strong. They have less debt in their books. They have demand for their products both from local market and export market. They can expand their market and products further. They have innovative ideas.

    Currently they have attractive ROE. From next quarter onwards, it will improve further. It will become more and more undervalued. Currently it is trading P/E ratio of below the 8.

    It is one of the most attractive Farm stocks in the world (not only in ASIA but also globally).
    Where will you put your money during next 12 months? pPo

    Posted by me 7th November 2009

    Some of my favorite picks are: # COMB, #BFL, #LFIN, #GRAN # SPEN, #DOCK, #DFCC, #CFIN, #SAMP and #HNB

    Reasons for my selection: Management, Future Growth, Ability to make profits in the future, innovative ideas, ability to expand market share, ability to introduce new products and services in the future, increased demand for products and services, expected increase income due to North and East activities and tourism rebound.

    In addition, I like to follow stocks such as #HAYC #RCL

    However if fundamentals are going to become weak for a longer period then we should sell.

    What are your favorite stocks now? Thanks. Later I added #BALA as well when it was trading around Rs.20/- in November last year.


    Innam posted GRAN and I replied on 10th Feb 2010.
    • There is a success story for #BFL. It is number on Agri Food farm stock in Sri-Lanka.

    They made profits for last two financial years. Their earnings, turnover continuously increased last three quarters. Actually, they produced better than expected results during last three quarters. They have less debt.

    Now In addition to local market they have export market and tourist market as well. Keep eye on their future developments.

    Fundamentally, GRAN is not as strong as BFL. However, because of sister affects and some other reasons stocks such as #GRAN can go up.

    #ATL also can go up.

    Both GRAN AND ATL will have long-term prospects depend on how they are going to mange their business during next five years.

    If Jim Roggers and some other top investors decides to buy stocks, he will definitely go for Food companies with less debt, cheap value and potential. Therefore, companies such as #BFL and #BALA will come to his radar during next five years
    • reply from MarketWatch, 11 Feb 10
    •
    • If #BFL break Rs.60/- in the short run then #GRAN could break Rs.20/-

    Remember Gran traded above Rs.200/ and TAFL above Rs.51/-

    Therefore #BFL will break all above resistances levels during next five years. It is a s number one food farm compnay in Sri-Lanka

    Bairha Farms have concentrated on their core business very well. I don’t find any other Agri-Business stock have concentrated like this in Sri-Lanka.

    They took some timely action by disposing non productive sectors in the past

    I didn’t expect them to export their products so soon to the export market.

    They have valuable land in East part of Sri-Lanka and they are determined to develop their maize project there. Their land should be revalued now. In addition they have some valuable tree such as teak in their land.

    In addition they will introduce new products to the market. They have innovative ideas.
    • reply from MarketWatch, 11 Feb 10
    • We cannot take decision by looking at results of one quarter.

    There should be some pattern of consistency.

    In the recent past also GRAN went up to 16 with big turnover. There was a distribution at that time. And it came down back to around 13 levels. I don’ know how it will react this time.

    On the other hand #BFL went up slowly and systematically breaking all the resistance levels. Now it has arrived at an extremely bullish position due to fundamental and technical reasons. Once they announce their results it will become more and more attractive. Valuation will become more attractive. This is the time to look for cash cows.

    They will break all the records and resistance levels during next five years due to favourable environment for their business.
    • reply from MarketWatch, 11 Feb 10
    • More Agri-Business News

    http://www.asian-agribiz.com/Home/

    Fortune GP Farm ventures into exports

    [4 February 2010] Sri Lanka's Fortune G-P Farms, an associate company of Bairaha Farms PLC, has ventured into the export market, with the export of two consignments of Parent Breeder Chicks to Nepal. The consignments consisted of 6,000 DOC. Until recently, 85% of Sri Lanka's annual requirement was imported, but now Fortune G-P Farms, has the capacity to supply nearly 50% of the local requirement. Bairaha is a vertically integrated poultry producer, engaged in all the aspects of breeding, production and processing with the exception of feed milling

    Bangladesh to import DOC and eggs

    [11 February 2010] Bangladesh has insisted that it will continue to allow poultry imports to ease the shortage in the country, but will not allow imports from India because of a fresh bird flu outbreak. Despite protests from local farmers, Bangladesh approved 17 traders in December, to import day-old-chicks (DOC) and eggs worth BDT 87.2 million (USD 1.25 million), saying the import was necessary to ease the shortage and high prices. The traders earlier planned to import DOC and eggs from India. New criteria however, states that poultry imports are allowed only from countries recognised by OIE to be free from the bird flu.
    •
    • reply from MarketWatch, 6 Apr 10
    • According to Rohit in his technical analysis, he has some trend for GRAN and TAFL.

    Always we should go for strong company, competitor in sub groups.

    Then there are other factors including less debt, strong balance sheet, innovative ideas and new developments etc.

    I think poultry sub group will have improved results in the current quarter. Next quarter will be better than current quarter.
    • reply from MarketWatch, 7 Apr 10
    • #BFL is not a crowded stock. It is a hidden gem.

    It will become real gem if they can maintain higher attractive ROE and if we see some new developments during next 12 months and next five years.

    Their next most important barriers are: Rs.47.75 and Rs.54/-

    Long term barrier is much higher.
    • reply from MarketWatch, 20 Apr 10
    • I always said that nobody cannot predict 100% correctly.

    We can see some fundamentals, future developments, pattern, themes, ideas, trend and action for some stocks time to time. We cannot identify bullish stock by looking at charts.

    We have to follow considerable period and spend time. In the mean times, we have to do some study as well because we do not get inside information, what sophisticated investors institutions and traders are doing etc.

    Charts are good for identifying current trend. Other than that, it is not that useful. Chartist cannot predict next great depression, market crash, market correction and next strong bull trend,

    We have to follow considerable period and spend time. In the mean times, we have to do some study as well because we do not get inside information, what sophisticated investors institutions and traders are doing etc.

    Every stock has different type of pattern. Some have very strong pattern. For example in the past #, KVAL appreciated similar to #BFL. It started from Rs.12, then it broker Rs.20, Rs.30, Rs.40 and Rs.50 barriers gradually. Finally it went up to Rs.78/-

    I thought when commodity market crash it will come down below .Rs.50/-. However, both #WATA #KVAL outperformed the market. Some said plantations stocks are not good for long-term investment. Even blue chips such as #JKH and #HHL came down to below Rs.60/-

    Once they release results, we should study about their ROE, CASH FLOW, and DEBT LEVEL ETC. Every time we see strong results, we have to upgrade their stock price now.

    One thing I want to tell you we must not chase any stock. There are pullbacks in strong market. Did you notice LFIN went from Rs. 40 to above Rs.50. Then it came back to Rs.43 level. Then there were some volatility. Finally broke and went above Rs.60 and stagnated for sometimes. Now it is trading around Rs.83/-

    #COMB, #SAMP, #JKH, #HAL,# HAYC, #HNB, #HASU, #COCO and #SPEN also had pattern and there were so many pull backs. Finally, all of above stocks broke some important barriers.

    It is better to study any stock before we decide to buy any stock. It is not too late to buy. Similarly it is not to high to buy and it is not too low to sell depend on the situation.
    But we must not buy wrong stock too late. Sell right stock too early.

    For example now we must study whether #HAYC is going to go to Rs.300/-. Now it is better than #JKH. For this, we should follow this stock. Without studying, we should not buy any stock suddenly.

    Both Hayles group and Richard Group should benefit from current low interest rate environment and positive business in plantations.

    When compare with cement, hotel and other overvalued and hot stocks we can see at least positive earning per share in companies in above groups, in BFL and plantations companies.

    When compare with cement, hotel, and other hot stocks BFL will have higher ROE, low p/e when compare with market, great value, great demand for their products, lower debt improved cash flow in their book once they release results in the future.

    We cannot see attractive financial ratios in cement and hotel stocks. However, hotel stocks with weak balance sheets are trading even above Rs.80/-.

    Finally so far #BFL broke two important barriers.

    Because of sister affects both #GRAN and TAFL can have some movements. Even Rohit see some movements in stocks such as DIAL, NHL, TAFL and GRAN
    •
    • reply from MarketWatch, 30 Apr 10
    • Pl remember I never give tips and recommendation to buy and sell stocks.

    I only give my ideas on some stocks. Just because members mention stocks here including me, we should not buy and sell stocks. . We should do some study. Sometimes we have to follow considerable period on stocks to buy and sell.

    In major up trends stocks will go up and in major down trends stocks will go down.

    There should be some reason to buy and sell stocks. For me both #BALA and #BFL very attractive due to some reasons.

    When #Dock was trading around Rs.120, some said it has extended and I was strong supporter for that price. It went up to Rs.300/-. Similarly, I saw potential for #SAMP in advance. Now I see greet potential for both #BALA and #BFL.

    It is not too high to buy and it is not too low to sell depend on the situation, fundamentals, great value and some other factors.

    Good Luck!
    •
    • reply from MarketWatch, 30 Apr 1
    •
    • I think there will be powerful rally in poultry stocks and there is a potential to break following barriers.


    #GRAN can break Rs.27.50/-

    #TAFL can break Rs.15/

    And

    #BFL can break Rs.84.75/-. Their long term barriers are much higher.

    We have to closely watch the next most important barriers for #BFL

    Poultry group will have improved earnings in the next two quarters and #BFL will have attractive ROE. They will reduce their debt further.

    #BFL has three markets now.

    Local market including north and east
    Tourist Market- Next year going to be year of visiting Sri-Lanka. Those who live in abroad also will visit Sri-Lanka in 2011.
    Export Market

    Favorable Agri-Economic policy also will benefit Agri-Food companies. Export oriented companies and companies who create more job opportunities can get further benefits.

    Policy makers have identified value of food and beverage sector in Sri-Lanka.

    #BFL is number one Agri-Business/Food Farm Company with great growth potential in Sri-Lanka.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] #TAFL reply from MarketWatch, 6 Jun 10
  • This is what I wrote on #BFL, #GRAN and #TAFL ON 24TH February for another posting!
    • Rise of other two stocks in the sector may be due to sister affects. May be there are other reasons as well.

    Players buy and sell due to some reasons. There should be some reason to buy.

    More positive news will give more bullish trend to the sector.

    Can we guess other peoples’ mind? Crowd will behave different way at different times.

    In case of #BFL has very good success story and they are number one farm company in Sri-Lanka and leader in the subgroup. They have great potential now. Their balance sheet is strong. They have less debt in their books. They have demand for their products both from local market and export market. They can expand their market and products further. They have innovative ideas.

    Currently they have attractive ROE. From next quarter onwards, it will improve further. It will become more and more undervalued. Currently it is trading P/E ratio of below the 8.

    It is one of the most attractive Farm stocks in the world (not only in ASIA but also globally).
    Where will you put your money during next 12 months? pPo

    Posted by me 7th November 2009

    Some of my favorite picks are: # COMB, #BFL, #LFIN, #GRAN # SPEN, #DOCK, #DFCC, #CFIN, #SAMP and #HNB

    Reasons for my selection: Management, Future Growth, Ability to make profits in the future, innovative ideas, ability to expand market share, ability to introduce new products and services in the future, increased demand for products and services, expected increase income due to North and East activities and tourism rebound.

    In addition, I like to follow stocks such as #HAYC #RCL

    However if fundamentals are going to become weak for a longer period then we should sell.

    What are your favorite stocks now? Thanks. Later I added #BALA as well when it was trading around Rs.20/- in November last year.


    Innam posted GRAN and I replied on 10th Feb 2010.
    • There is a success story for #BFL. It is number on Agri Food farm stock in Sri-Lanka.

    They made profits for last two financial years. Their earnings, turnover continuously increased last three quarters. Actually, they produced better than expected results during last three quarters. They have less debt.

    Now In addition to local market they have export market and tourist market as well. Keep eye on their future developments.

    Fundamentally, GRAN is not as strong as BFL. However, because of sister affects and some other reasons stocks such as #GRAN can go up.

    #ATL also can go up.

    Both GRAN AND ATL will have long-term prospects depend on how they are going to mange their business during next five years.

    If Jim Roggers and some other top investors decides to buy stocks, he will definitely go for Food companies with less debt, cheap value and potential. Therefore, companies such as #BFL and #BALA will come to his radar during next five years
    • reply from MarketWatch, 11 Feb 10
    •
    • If #BFL break Rs.60/- in the short run then #GRAN could break Rs.20/-

    Remember Gran traded above Rs.200/ and TAFL above Rs.51/-

    Therefore #BFL will break all above resistances levels during next five years. It is a s number one food farm compnay in Sri-Lanka

    Bairha Farms have concentrated on their core business very well. I don’t find any other Agri-Business stock have concentrated like this in Sri-Lanka.

    They took some timely action by disposing non productive sectors in the past

    I didn’t expect them to export their products so soon to the export market.

    They have valuable land in East part of Sri-Lanka and they are determined to develop their maize project there. Their land should be revalued now. In addition they have some valuable tree such as teak in their land.

    In addition they will introduce new products to the market. They have innovative ideas.
    • reply from MarketWatch, 11 Feb 10
    • We cannot take decision by looking at results of one quarter.

    There should be some pattern of consistency.

    In the recent past also GRAN went up to 16 with big turnover. There was a distribution at that time. And it came down back to around 13 levels. I don’ know how it will react this time.

    On the other hand #BFL went up slowly and systematically breaking all the resistance levels. Now it has arrived at an extremely bullish position due to fundamental and technical reasons. Once they announce their results it will become more and more attractive. Valuation will become more attractive. This is the time to look for cash cows.

    They will break all the records and resistance levels during next five years due to favourable environment for their business.
    • reply from MarketWatch, 11 Feb 10
    • More Agri-Business News

    http://www.asian-agribiz.com/Home/

    Fortune GP Farm ventures into exports

    [4 February 2010] Sri Lanka's Fortune G-P Farms, an associate company of Bairaha Farms PLC, has ventured into the export market, with the export of two consignments of Parent Breeder Chicks to Nepal. The consignments consisted of 6,000 DOC. Until recently, 85% of Sri Lanka's annual requirement was imported, but now Fortune G-P Farms, has the capacity to supply nearly 50% of the local requirement. Bairaha is a vertically integrated poultry producer, engaged in all the aspects of breeding, production and processing with the exception of feed milling

    Bangladesh to import DOC and eggs

    [11 February 2010] Bangladesh has insisted that it will continue to allow poultry imports to ease the shortage in the country, but will not allow imports from India because of a fresh bird flu outbreak. Despite protests from local farmers, Bangladesh approved 17 traders in December, to import day-old-chicks (DOC) and eggs worth BDT 87.2 million (USD 1.25 million), saying the import was necessary to ease the shortage and high prices. The traders earlier planned to import DOC and eggs from India. New criteria however, states that poultry imports are allowed only from countries recognised by OIE to be free from the bird flu.
    •
    • reply from MarketWatch, 6 Apr 10
    • According to Rohit in his technical analysis, he has some trend for GRAN and TAFL.

    Always we should go for strong company, competitor in sub groups.

    Then there are other factors including less debt, strong balance sheet, innovative ideas and new developments etc.

    I think poultry sub group will have improved results in the current quarter. Next quarter will be better than current quarter.
    • reply from MarketWatch, 7 Apr 10
    • #BFL is not a crowded stock. It is a hidden gem.

    It will become real gem if they can maintain higher attractive ROE and if we see some new developments during next 12 months and next five years.

    Their next most important barriers are: Rs.47.75 and Rs.54/-

    Long term barrier is much higher.
    • reply from MarketWatch, 20 Apr 10
    • I always said that nobody cannot predict 100% correctly.

    We can see some fundamentals, future developments, pattern, themes, ideas, trend and action for some stocks time to time. We cannot identify bullish stock by looking at charts.

    We have to follow considerable period and spend time. In the mean times, we have to do some study as well because we do not get inside information, what sophisticated investors institutions and traders are doing etc.

    Charts are good for identifying current trend. Other than that, it is not that useful. Chartist cannot predict next great depression, market crash, market correction and next strong bull trend,

    We have to follow considerable period and spend time. In the mean times, we have to do some study as well because we do not get inside information, what sophisticated investors institutions and traders are doing etc.

    Every stock has different type of pattern. Some have very strong pattern. For example in the past #, KVAL appreciated similar to #BFL. It started from Rs.12, then it broker Rs.20, Rs.30, Rs.40 and Rs.50 barriers gradually. Finally it went up to Rs.78/-

    I thought when commodity market crash it will come down below .Rs.50/-. However, both #WATA #KVAL outperformed the market. Some said plantations stocks are not good for long-term investment. Even blue chips such as #JKH and #HHL came down to below Rs.60/-

    Once they release results, we should study about their ROE, CASH FLOW, and DEBT LEVEL ETC. Every time we see strong results, we have to upgrade their stock price now.

    One thing I want to tell you we must not chase any stock. There are pullbacks in strong market. Did you notice LFIN went from Rs. 40 to above Rs.50. Then it came back to Rs.43 level. Then there were some volatility. Finally broke and went above Rs.60 and stagnated for sometimes. Now it is trading around Rs.83/-

    #COMB, #SAMP, #JKH, #HAL,# HAYC, #HNB, #HASU, #COCO and #SPEN also had pattern and there were so many pull backs. Finally, all of above stocks broke some important barriers.

    It is better to study any stock before we decide to buy any stock. It is not too late to buy. Similarly it is not to high to buy and it is not too low to sell depend on the situation.
    But we must not buy wrong stock too late. Sell right stock too early.

    For example now we must study whether #HAYC is going to go to Rs.300/-. Now it is better than #JKH. For this, we should follow this stock. Without studying, we should not buy any stock suddenly.

    Both Hayles group and Richard Group should benefit from current low interest rate environment and positive business in plantations.

    When compare with cement, hotel and other overvalued and hot stocks we can see at least positive earning per share in companies in above groups, in BFL and plantations companies.

    When compare with cement, hotel, and other hot stocks BFL will have higher ROE, low p/e when compare with market, great value, great demand for their products, lower debt improved cash flow in their book once they release results in the future.

    We cannot see attractive financial ratios in cement and hotel stocks. However, hotel stocks with weak balance sheets are trading even above Rs.80/-.

    Finally so far #BFL broke two important barriers.

    Because of sister affects both #GRAN and TAFL can have some movements. Even Rohit see some movements in stocks such as DIAL, NHL, TAFL and GRAN
    •
    • reply from MarketWatch, 30 Apr 10
    • Pl remember I never give tips and recommendation to buy and sell stocks.

    I only give my ideas on some stocks. Just because members mention stocks here including me, we should not buy and sell stocks. . We should do some study. Sometimes we have to follow considerable period on stocks to buy and sell.

    In major up trends stocks will go up and in major down trends stocks will go down.

    There should be some reason to buy and sell stocks. For me both #BALA and #BFL very attractive due to some reasons.

    When #Dock was trading around Rs.120, some said it has extended and I was strong supporter for that price. It went up to Rs.300/-. Similarly, I saw potential for #SAMP in advance. Now I see greet potential for both #BALA and #BFL.

    It is not too high to buy and it is not too low to sell depend on the situation, fundamentals, great value and some other factors.

    Good Luck!
    •
    • reply from MarketWatch, 30 Apr 1
    •
    • I think there will be powerful rally in poultry stocks and there is a potential to break following barriers.


    #GRAN can break Rs.27.50/-

    #TAFL can break Rs.15/

    And

    #BFL can break Rs.84.75/-. Their long term barriers are much higher.

    We have to closely watch the next most important barriers for #BFL

    Poultry group will have improved earnings in the next two quarters and #BFL will have attractive ROE. They will reduce their debt further.

    #BFL has three markets now.

    Local market including north and east
    Tourist Market- Next year going to be year of visiting Sri-Lanka. Those who live in abroad also will visit Sri-Lanka in 2011.
    Export Market

    Favorable Agri-Economic policy also will benefit Agri-Food companies. Export oriented companies and companies who create more job opportunities can get further benefits.

    Policy makers have identified value of food and beverage sector in Sri-Lanka.

    #BFL is number one Agri-Business/Food Farm Company with great growth potential in Sri-Lanka.

    Good luck!
  • [Updated] Can you name current... reply from snowman, 5 Jun 10
  • I agree with MW. #BFL has potential to move up and will out perform. I bought #BFL when it was trading at Rs. 33. Thanks to MW.

    I think along with that, #GRAN also will move up and I noticed that there is huge buying interest for #GRAN.

    What are your ideas about #LALU?
  • [Updated] #BFL reply from MarketWatch, 5 Jun 10
  • Hi Nishanthaher

    I cannot predict market and stocks. I do not think anybody can predict the market. 100% correctly. Now some top analysts think market will have 5000 by the end of this year. We have to wait and see.

    If you are new to the market, do not trade and invest in stocks straight away. Try to learn as much as possible. Do not depend on tips

    #BFL has become tortoise + plus stocks now.

    Now we can see not only value and earnings momentum but also technical momentum.

    It has an extremely bullish pattern (not the chart pattern –It is similar to strong tortoise plus pattern)

    In other words, it has very bullish indicator.

    However, our number one priority should be given to value and future earnings.

    Once any stock become overpriced we should avoid and if long-term fundamentals become weak, we should sell.

    I already said #BFL as aggressive buy due to some reasons. For me it is number one markets’ value gem in the CSE now.

    Everybody should have reason and strategy to buy and sell stocks after doing careful study.

    Investors, traders should take investment decisions according to their experience, risk level, time horizon and trading strategy etc


    Good luck!
  • [Updated] #TAFL reply from msninvest, 4 Jun 10
  • I feel #BFL and #GRAN are much better poultry stocks to invest in.

    Their prices compared with their earnings to date are far more competitive than #TAFL.
  • [Updated] #SUGA reply from Tony12345, 3 Jun 10
  • Looks like #BFL is on the move..
  • [Updated] PABC and BFL: Possib... reply from MarketWatch, 3 Jun 10
  • Hi Rehan

    I already said #BFL as aggressive buy due to some reasons. For me it is number one markets’ value gem in the CSE now.

    Everybody should have reason and strategy to buy and sell stocks after doing careful study.

    Investors, traders should take investment decisions according to their experience, risk level, time horizon and trading strategy etc.

    Thanks.
  • [Updated] Resistent Levels reply from MarketWatch, 3 Jun 10
  • HI UR

    I generally do not rely much on resistance levels. Because my strategy is based on attractive value, strong fundamentals, less debt, strong demand for products, positive cash flow in the future, higher ROE in the future, innovative management, my own improved tortoise approach, strong pattern (not the chart pattern) and other factors.

    #BFL is number one markets’ value gem in the CSE and even it can break Rs.90/- barrier now due to attractive value and future prospects.

    Tortoise will win in 2010 and 2011. We can find some hidden stocks similar to BFL during next 10 months.

    I think everybody should have his or her own successful strategy

    Good luck.
  • [Updated] What do you think ab... reply from MarketWatch, 3 Jun 10
  • As I said earlier pattern of plantations is completely different from other groups. Still I am trying to learn it.

    There is a possibility #bala can break Rs.43.75. We have to see some more confirmation.

    I also noticed movement in #hopl. We never know we can see strong rebound for plantations stocks. I think completely different plantations stocks will have strong uptrend next time.

    Globally some commodities are oversold and will rebound sharply.

    We have to reckon #BFL has number one markets’ value gem in the CSE now. It can become number one bullish stock in the CSE due to attractive value. I think it will break even Rs.90/- due to attractive value, higher ROE, future earnings and strong demand for their products.

    Keep an eye on the next most bullish stocks and groups. Give much attention to value and strong fundamentals. Tortoise will win in 2010 and 2011.

    I think in the short run that there will be some volatility for some commodities.

    http://www.zestatea.com/zesta_pure_ceylon_tea_auction_news.htm

    MARKET OUTLOOK
    Low Grown Leafy category : Best OP/OPA were dearer by 5 – 10 USC while the others were firm. BOP1 eased all round while the OP1 gained in value. Best Pekoes maintained while the others eased.
    Low Grown Small leaf category : Better FBOP along with the bottom end of the market were firm to dearer. The below best sorts were firm to easier. FF1 appreciated by 5 – 10 USC all round. Tippy teas also appreciated.
    Ex-estate : Best Western BOP appreciated by 10 – 15 USC while the below best sorts gained around 5 – 10 USC. The high-priced BOPF in the Best category were firm to easier while all other sorts gained by 10 – 15 USC. Nuwara Eliya teas appreciated all round except for the leafy grades. Uva / Udapussellawa teas gained by 5 – 10 USC.
    CTC: BP1 appreciated by 20 – 30 USC all round. High grown PF1 gained by 10 USC while the Low grown sorts were 5 – 15 USC dearer.

    Dusts : All sorts gained by 20 – 30 USC.
    Off grades : All sorts were firm around last and mostly sold on par with the main grades.
    TRENDS
    As expected, there was improved demand at Colombo this week with most buyers coming back into the market. The weather conditions have improved over the last week and now that most factories have reopened after the floods and the holiday season, a repetition of last week's weak trend is unlikely.
  • [Updated] MW, Innam & other Pr... reply from MarketWatch, 2 Jun 10
  • Both Banking sector and Agri-Business sector will have long-term value.

    As I expected Market passed 4300 barrier. Today both #COMB and #HNB broke Rs.250 barrier strongly.

    If it breaks 4375, it will go up further.

    Following are some of the new barriers for some stocks:


    #DFCC: Rs.250/-

    #COMB AND #HNB

    RS.270/-, Rs.275/-, Rs.280/- and Rs.300/-

    #SAMP

    Rs.300/- Rs.310 and Rs.230/-

    #BFL

    Rs.72/-, Rs.84.75/- and Rs.90/-

    #JKH

    Rs.190/- and Rs.200/-

    #HAYL

    Rs.320/-

    #SPEN

    Rs.1600, Rs.1700, Rs, 1800, Rs, 1900

    Time to time we will have strong uptrend in selected groups. We should identify next the most bullish groups now.

    Still I didn’t see the strongest uptrend in one group and for some stocks in another group.

    Overall still market is strong. I repeatedly mentioned some foreign investors and funds prefer well m managed banks and agri- business stocks. I think more new funds will enter the CSE during next 10 months.

    Tortoise stocks are the best stocks in the current market. We should go behind markets’ value gems now.

    As I said earlier, time to time some groups will become more active than others.

    During last eight days I saw unusual action, pattern, price and volume movements for selected bank stocks, diversified stocks and some other extremely bullish stocks

    . It is better to buy value stocks when value gems build their new base in the current market.

    It is true still overpriced stocks can go up. It is better to go behind markets’ value gems now,
  • [Updated] NTB moving on heavin... reply from MarketWatch, 2 Jun 10
  • Hi Rehan

    Banking sector will have long term value. We should study high volume carefully.

    As I expected Market passed 4300 barrier. Today both #COMB and #HNB broke Rs.250 barrier strongly.

    If it breaks 4375 it will go up further.

    Following are some of the barriers for some stocks:


    #DFCC: Rs.250/-

    #COMB AND #HNB

    RS.270/-, Rs.275/-, Rs.280/- and Rs.300/-

    #SAMP

    Rs.300/- Rs.310 and Rs.230/-

    #BFL

    Rs.63/-, Rs.84.75/- and Rs.90/-

    #JKH

    Rs.190/- and Rs.200/-

    #HAYL

    Rs.320/-

    #SPEN

    Rs.1600, Rs.1700, Rs, 1800, Rs, 1900

    Time to time we will have strong uptrend in selected groups. We should identify next the most bullish groups now.

    Still I didn’t see the strongest uptrend in one group and for some stocks in another group.

    Overall still market is strong. I repeatedly mentioned some foreign investors and funds prefer well m managed banks and agri- business stocks. I think more new funds will enter the CSE during next 10 months.

    Tortoise stocks are the best stocks in the current market. We should go behind markets’ value gems now.

    As I said earlier, time to time some groups will become more active than others.

    During last eight days I saw unusual action, pattern, price and volume movements for selected bank stocks, diversified stocks and some other extremely bullish stocks

    . It is better to buy value stocks when value gems build their new base in the current market.

    It is true still overpriced stocks can go up. It is better to go behind markets’ value gems now,
  • [Updated] Commercial Bank big ... reply from MarketWatch, 2 Jun 10
  • I recently said intelligent investors like stocks such as #COMB and #BFL now.

    We must not expect stock to go double or treble within a week. Some stocks will appreciate slowly, systematically in the short run, medium run and long run like a tortoise.

    We must think about future strong earnings, growth and new developments. We should forget of stock price in the short run.

    http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/fullstory.php?nid=729373454

    Bank Sale
    02 Jun, 2010 10:21:48
    Sri Lanka Commercial Bank 9.8-pct voting stock sold to foreign buyer

    June 02, 2010 (LBO) - A 9.8 percent slice of Sri Lanka's Commercial Bank of Ceylon was sold by 30 percent shareholder DFCC Bank to a foreign buyer for 5.8 billion rupees, brokers said.

    The Colombo Stock Exchange halted trading in DFCC Bank stock soon after the trade pending an announcement from the bank.
    DFCC owns 30 percent of Commercial Bank.
    The 9.988 percent stake in Commercial Bank falls short of the 10 percent regulatory limit on bank shareholding set by the regulator.
  • [Updated] #RICH divesting supe... reply from MarketWatch, 30 May 10
  • I think we should study and should buy CIC at the correct time. We should keep under our radar during next 12 months. I like to include this stock in my next list.

    We should follow considerable period and their new developments during next 21months. They will have long-term growth.

    We also should study their diversified sectors thoroughly. Then we can get some idea about risk and return. I think currently that their Agri-Business sector is doing well.

    I think in Agri-Business sector, #BFL should trade above the price of #CIC now. It is more attractive than #CIC now.

    When we select stocks, we should pay attention to pattern, future earnings, higher ROE, attractive value, good business, strong demand for their products in the future etc.

    BFL is belonging to Agri farm food sector and global investors prefer to invest in attractive food stocks now. Despite global market volatility there is a good demand for well-managed poultry food stocks now.

    I think BFL will get more export orders in the future. Many south Asian countries do not like to import poultry products from India now due to flue threat and they want to import from other countries now. Now almost every year there is a shortage in poultry products in some countries.

    Now #BFL has opportunity to enter Indian market as well. Million of Indian middle class will look for quality foods in the coming decade. There will be great demand for quality food and tea in the future. In India, demand for tea is increasing almost every year and they will export less in the future.

    Now policy makers have taken firm action to develop agri-business sector in Sri-Lanka. They want to see self sufficient in maize, rice and other grain. When we see vibrant poultry sector in Sri-Lanka, there will be great demand for maize as well. Both poultry farmers and maize growers will benefit most. Farmers will have more income and they will make demand for other products.

    I think there will be more export opportniuine not only in poultry products but also in maize in the future. To happen this there should be cost competiveness in the industry to compete with other global players.

    I heard, some poultry farmers do not like to sell their poultry products through some supermarkets due to profit margin difference. They complain they have to pay higher prices for maize and for keeping higher margin by some super markets. Instead, they now sell through other distributions channels. I think poultry farmers should sell their products using Satosa outlets, cooperative shops as well. There is a great demand for poultry products from north and east restaurants now due to increased local and foreign tourists.

    Time to come there will be more demand for poultry products due to demand from hotel industry.
  • [Updated] #RICH divesting supe... reply from MarketWatch, 29 May 10
  • Some companies when they cannot do well in some areas they will take timely action to dispose those areas.

    #BFL was such one company. After disposing their super market and another area not only there were able to concentrate on their core business, it also helped them to improve their bottom line and profit margin
  • [Updated] what are the good sh... reply from sampath2009, 29 May 10
  • #BFL AND #HAYL are looking good. Get some advices from best players in forum. I dont sure about RAL my friend.
  • [Updated] #BALA reply from MarketWatch, 27 May 10
  • If we carefully study, we can make profits from all plantation stocks during next five years. During next five years, we can make profits from #TAFL #GRAN and #BFL has well. As I said earlier, new traders and investors should not buy at the top of any rally. Experienced and those who have experienced traders and intelligent investors it is not too high to buy and not too low to sell.

    Markets are risky but good businesses are not.

    Intelligent investors will sell their stocks once they see long-term fundamentals become weak.

    New Investors and traders should learn as much as possible.

    #BFL is massively undervalued company in the CSE. Future earnings are more important that past. Intelligent investors have recognized this.

    #BALA has lowest debt among plantation companies.



    Other factors to consider:

    How good are the company’s cost analysis and accounting controls

    Don’t overstress diversification

    Don’t fail to consider time as well as price in buying a true growth stock and value gem

    Don’ take investment and trading decision by looking at one or two quarterly results. Future earnings are more important than past.

    Do not take temporary incident as major incidents. Some companies will make huge profits due to divesture of some assets in one financial year. They are not generating income from their core business regularly.

    Long-term value masters once they find great stocks they will not worry about short-term volatility in the market. They know the value of the business and potential.
  • [Updated] Will #BFL go above t... reply from MarketWatch, 26 May 10
  • What do you think about powerful #BFL when we compare with other stocks in food and beverage sector such as #KFP, #CARG, #SOY and #LMF
    now and in the future.

    Thanks.

    We should compare debt level, ROE, value, and attractive earnings in the future, demand for their products in the future, new markets and new developments etc.
  • [Updated] BFL BALA KHL going d... reply from MarketWatch, 25 May 10
  • Utilities and consumer staples are outperforming the global market now.

    In a volatile market, best-managed food companies will always outperform the market. It is happening in the global market now.

    I think current general market condition is affecting for many stocks

    Intelligent players will accumulate some of the best value gems, which are going to outperform market in 2010 and 2011 in the current market.

    As I said, there will be volatility in all types of market during next 10 years. No market, stock or group will go straight up and down. We have to learn the pattern, themes and other factors as well.

    Players will sell stocks due to so many reasons: Such as panic, to settle credit, for personal reasons. Intelligent investors will sell if long-term fundamentals become weak.

    As I said, #BFL is number one attractive value gem in the CSE now. It is a food-oriented company. It has strong fundamentals now. I think BFL will outperform the market.

    We can see great value in plantations stocks when compare with over valued hotel, cement, power and health stocks. But one thing we have to study now. #WATA is trading above Rs.200/-. Other plantations stocks even they could not break Rs.80/- barrier so far.

    How to avoid volatility

    We should have best managed food-oriented companies in our portfolios
    We should have time horizon
    We should have buying and selling stagey when we buy stocks

    If we can follow stock, group and market action, pattern, themes and personality in addition to strong fundamentals we can have above average results during next five years.

    Future earnings are more important. Fundamentals will drive the market in the second half of this year. Tortoise will outperform the market in 2010 and 2011.
  • [Updated] Can you name markets... reply from cse.see, 25 May 10
  • Best markets’ value gems.........
    #BFL
    #BALA
    #HAYL

    Undervalued groups and stocks.....
    #LCEY
    #BFL
    #SINS
    #HAYL

    Growth stocks.......
    #HAYC
    #DIPD
    #DIST
    #HAYL
    #KOTA
  • [Updated] Attn: Rohit, MW, Cse... reply from MarketWatch, 23 May 10
  • #BFL New developments

    http://www.sundaytimes.lk/100328/BusinessTimes/bt36.html

    Eight Kurunegala poultry farmers receive assistance

    Eight farmers in Minuwangate, Kurunegala were selected to receive assistance towards the construction of poultry pens on their own land, through the National Agribusiness Council (NAC) under the FAO’s Telefood Special Fund.
    Construction and supply of materials was supervised by the coordinating officer of the Kurunegala Regional Farmer Council. This project was conducted by the NAC, FAO and Bairaha Farms PLC, who supplied thousand chicks per farmer under a buy back agreement, according to an NAC statement.
    TeleFood is the FAO's annual campaign dedicated towards reducing the number of hungry people in the world by operating at the grass-root level. Replication of this project could help Farmer families better their living standards and also increase the avalability of animal protein in the country.
  • [Updated] Attn: Rohit, MW, Cse... reply from MarketWatch, 23 May 10
  • That is right. Everybody should have their own successful strategy.

    I think some members in this forum recognized attractive stocks including #BFL before market recognize them.

    Few intelligent investors including top institutional player recognized BFL has hidden gem in advance. They invested five years before.

    During last six months, few intelligent investors and institutions became as major shareholders. Infact some have increased their stakes.

    Beauty is BFL has become more attractive than before due to attractive valuation and future prospects.

    Earning per share over 8.in the current financial years. Trading price Rs.52/-. Even if they announce 2.5 EPS one quarter, they can earn EPS OF 10 during next financial quarter. What about if they can make EPS around 4 in every quarter just as current quarter their earning per share will go above 16. What a gem?

    #BFL is one of the markets’ GEMS.

    For me it is number one attractive undervalued stock in the CSE now.
  • [Updated] BFL reply from MarketWatch, 23 May 10
  • #BFL New developments

    http://www.sundaytimes.lk/100328/BusinessTimes/bt36.html

    Eight Kurunegala poultry farmers receive assistance

    Eight farmers in Minuwangate, Kurunegala were selected to receive assistance towards the construction of poultry pens on their own land, through the National Agribusiness Council (NAC) under the FAO’s Telefood Special Fund.
    Construction and supply of materials was supervised by the coordinating officer of the Kurunegala Regional Farmer Council. This project was conducted by the NAC, FAO and Bairaha Farms PLC, who supplied thousand chicks per farmer under a buy back agreement, according to an NAC statement.
    TeleFood is the FAO's annual campaign dedicated towards reducing the number of hungry people in the world by operating at the grass-root level. Replication of this project could help Farmer families better their living standards and also increase the avalability of animal protein in the country.
  • [Updated] Attn: Rohit, MW, Cse... reply from MarketWatch, 22 May 10
  • We do not want to be expert to beat the market. Sometimes so-called experts make some bigger blunders in their investments.

    New investors and traders should learn as much as possible before they buy their first home, first stocks, first commodities etc.

    I already said those who have above average knowledge and experience would have edge over others during next four months. Always there will be opportunities for intelligent players.

    Who were the biggest losers during current global market volatility in all types of market?

    Inexperienced players, short-term players and speculators who sold their assets at the lowest price. .

    We should have reason to buy and sell stocks.

    Some will sell stocks to buy personal things. Some will sell stocks to settle their credit. Some have target and they will sell stocks. Some will never sell some stocks and they know their long-term value.

    Different players will buy stocks for different reasons and they will have time horizon as well.

    Some will buy for one day, one week, one month, and one year

    Some will buy and keep for more than five years.

    Some want to see quick gain.

    Some are forecasting their stocks will double and treble within a week or month.

    It all depends on market players, general market conditions and other factors. In the short run, stocks can go up and down.

    Nobody can predict future 100% correctly. In stock markets, there are risks as well. Some think only rewards are there.

    However time to time some stocks, groups and sectors will out perform other sectors, stocks and groups.

    Some Fundamental tortoise investors will not worry much about market correction, short term volatility etc. They are for the long run. They know their companies very well. They know their businesses. They know their balance sheet. They know their debt level. Then they know their current asset position. They know their products and strong demand for their products. They know they are going to make strong profits in the future too. They know their companies will become more and more attractive in the future. They know they have invested in future earnings, growth and higher future ROE and in an undervalued company. They know they are not in hot stocks and tech stocks. They know even they do not want to look at charts. They know their pattern now (not the chart pattern)

    We have to learn lot of things in the market. Nobody is expert.

    Do you know before announcing attractive results, plantations stocks such as #MASK, #BALA and #AGAL went up. For example when bala announced negative results it came down from Rs.38 to around Rs.30 level. Then it shot up to Rs.40 level before the quarterly results. After attractive quarterly results, it has pull backed to around Rs.37 level. That is CSE. Then if you see some hot stocks, they are trading above the profitable plantations companies. Some have net asset per share less than Rs.5/-.. Have mountain of debt and we do not see any profit making either. However, stocks prices are trading above Rs.30

    At current price of Rs.52, #BFL is massively undervalued. It has strong fundamentals now. They have less debt and higher ROE as well. I think they will announce their final dividend as well. It is number one attractive undervalued farm stock in the CSE. As a future leader, BFL will shine in the market in the future.

    TAFL is a weak competitor in the group but they should make profit next quarter as well. Fundamentally not that sound.

    Those who bought #TAFL at Rs.10 level had more than 50% return during short period.

    There will be demand for farm products due to tourism industry.

    #Haly also making good profits now.

    Finally remember market direction can change suddenly. When some becomes cautious, markets can go up strongly.

    For example, in the morning, players became bearish and at the close of the day, bull took over the market in DOW.

    I said it would rebound Friday. I think both Indian and HONGKONG
    Market will go up strongly on Monday. We will some strong rallies in some commodities as well.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5ewXALKTwQM&pos=1

    Stocks Rout Halts, Euro Advances as Risk Demand Stabilizes

    May 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks jumped, halting a weeklong global slide, while the euro rose for a third day and Treasuries erased an early gain on speculation the rout in risky assets overshot the potential damage from Europe’s debt crisis.
    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 1.5 percent to 1,087.69 at 4 p.m. in New York, erasing a morning drop of 1.5 percent that dragged the gauge below its weakest level during the May 6 crash. Brazil’s Bovespa index surged 3.6 percent, while copper jumped the most since February on signs of stronger demand in China. Currencies of commodity producing nations rallied versus the dollar. The 30-year Treasury yield rose one basis point to 4.1 percent after earlier dropping to 3.98 percent, its lowest level of the year.
    The expiration of U.S. stock options added to market swings after the S&P 500 yesterday tumbled 3.9 percent, the most in more than a year. Financial shares in the S&P 500 rose 3.6 percent as a group as the Senate’s passage of legislation to reform the industry eased uncertainty surrounding the makeup of the new rules.
    “Technically speaking we’re very oversold -- really that’s the understatement of the year,” said Walter Todd, who helps manage about $800 million at Greenwood Capital in Greenwood, South Carolina. “I’d rather be buying now than I would three weeks ago.”
    Rebound After Correction
    Today’s gain in the S&P 500 came after the benchmark index for U.S. stocks slumped yesterday to its lowest level since February as an unexpected increase in jobless claims and a surprise drop in the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators called into question the strength of the economic rebound.
    The S&P 500 opened today trading at about 15.5 times the reported operating earnings of its companies over the past 12 months, the lowest valuation since July. The index erased its gain in the final hour of trading, only to rally 1.5 percent in the session’s final 20 minutes.
    The rally that began 14 months ago is probably intact if history is any guide, Birinyi Associates Ltd. said. The S&P 500 fell 12 percent from a 19-month high on April 23 through yesterday as concern grew that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis would snuff out the global economic recovery.
    Thirteen of 15 comparable drops the Westport, Connecticut- based firm calculated since 1945 have occurred either at bear market bottoms or during lasting advances.
    ‘First Official Correction’
    “If we assume the bull market ended on April 23rd, it would be one of the weakest and shortest gains in the last 48 years,” Cleve Rueckert, an analyst at the research and money- management firm founded by Laszlo Birinyi, wrote in a note to clients today. “A more likely scenario is that the current bull market is experiencing its first official correction.” A correction is typically defined as a drop of at least 10 percent from a high.
    JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America Corp. rallied at least 4.5 percent to pace gains in 77 of 79 stocks in the S&P 500 Financials Index
  • [Updated] BFL reply from MarketWatch, 22 May 10
  • We do not want to be expert to beat the market. Sometimes so-called experts make some bigger blunders in their investments.

    New investors and traders should learn as much as possible before they buy their first home, first stocks, first commodities etc.

    I already said those who have above average knowledge and experience would have edge over others during next four months. Always there will be opportunities for intelligent players.

    Who were the biggest losers during current global market volatility in all types of market?

    Inexperienced players, short-term players and speculators who sold their assets at the lowest price. .

    We should have reason to buy and sell stocks.

    Some will sell stocks to buy personal things. Some will sell stocks to settle their credit. Some have target and they will sell stocks. Some will never sell some stocks and they know their long-term value.

    Different players will buy stocks for different reasons and they will have time horizon as well.

    Some will buy for one day, one week, one month, and one year

    Some will buy and keep for more than five years.

    Some want to see quick gain.

    Some are forecasting their stocks will double and treble within a week or month.

    It all depends on market players, general market conditions and other factors. In the short run, stocks can go up and down.

    Nobody can predict future 100% correctly. In stock markets, there are risks as well. Some think only rewards are there.

    However time to time some stocks, groups and sectors will out perform other sectors, stocks and groups.

    Some Fundamental tortoise investors will not worry much about market correction, short term volatility etc. They are for the long run. They know their companies very well. They know their businesses. They know their balance sheet. They know their debt level. Then they know their current asset position. They know their products and strong demand for their products. They know they are going to make strong profits in the future too. They know their companies will become more and more attractive in the future. They know they have invested in future earnings, growth and higher future ROE and in an undervalued company. They know they are not in hot stocks and tech stocks. They know even they do not want to look at charts. They know their pattern now (not the chart pattern)

    We have to learn lot of things in the market. Nobody is expert.

    Do you know before announcing attractive results, plantations stocks such as #MASK, #BALA and #AGAL went up. For example when bala announced negative results it came down from Rs.38 to around Rs.30 level. Then it shot up to Rs.40 level before the quarterly results. After attractive quarterly results, it has pull backed to around Rs.37 level. That is CSE. Then if you see some hot stocks, they are trading above the profitable plantations companies. Some have net asset per share less than Rs.5/-.. Have mountain of debt and we do not see any profit making either. However, stocks prices are trading above Rs.30

    At current price of Rs.52, #BFL is massively undervalued. It has strong fundamentals now. They have less debt and higher ROE as well. I think they will announce their final dividend as well. It is number one attractive undervalued farm stock in the CSE. As a future leader, BFL will shine in the market in the future.

    TAFL is a weak competitor in the group but they should make profit next quarter as well. Fundamentally not that sound.

    Those who bought #TAFL at Rs.10 level had more than 50% return during short period.

    There will be demand for farm products due to tourism industry.

    #Haly also making good profits now.

    Finally remember market direction can change suddenly. When some becomes cautious, markets can go up strongly.

    For example, in the morning, players became bearish and at the close of the day, bull took over the market in DOW.

    I said it would rebound Friday. I think both Indian and HONGKONG
    Market will go up strongly on Monday. We will some strong rallies in some commodities as well.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5ewXALKTwQM&pos=1

    Stocks Rout Halts, Euro Advances as Risk Demand Stabilizes

    May 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks jumped, halting a weeklong global slide, while the euro rose for a third day and Treasuries erased an early gain on speculation the rout in risky assets overshot the potential damage from Europe’s debt crisis.
    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 1.5 percent to 1,087.69 at 4 p.m. in New York, erasing a morning drop of 1.5 percent that dragged the gauge below its weakest level during the May 6 crash. Brazil’s Bovespa index surged 3.6 percent, while copper jumped the most since February on signs of stronger demand in China. Currencies of commodity producing nations rallied versus the dollar. The 30-year Treasury yield rose one basis point to 4.1 percent after earlier dropping to 3.98 percent, its lowest level of the year.
    The expiration of U.S. stock options added to market swings after the S&P 500 yesterday tumbled 3.9 percent, the most in more than a year. Financial shares in the S&P 500 rose 3.6 percent as a group as the Senate’s passage of legislation to reform the industry eased uncertainty surrounding the makeup of the new rules.
    “Technically speaking we’re very oversold -- really that’s the understatement of the year,” said Walter Todd, who helps manage about $800 million at Greenwood Capital in Greenwood, South Carolina. “I’d rather be buying now than I would three weeks ago.”
    Rebound After Correction
    Today’s gain in the S&P 500 came after the benchmark index for U.S. stocks slumped yesterday to its lowest level since February as an unexpected increase in jobless claims and a surprise drop in the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators called into question the strength of the economic rebound.
    The S&P 500 opened today trading at about 15.5 times the reported operating earnings of its companies over the past 12 months, the lowest valuation since July. The index erased its gain in the final hour of trading, only to rally 1.5 percent in the session’s final 20 minutes.
    The rally that began 14 months ago is probably intact if history is any guide, Birinyi Associates Ltd. said. The S&P 500 fell 12 percent from a 19-month high on April 23 through yesterday as concern grew that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis would snuff out the global economic recovery.
    Thirteen of 15 comparable drops the Westport, Connecticut- based firm calculated since 1945 have occurred either at bear market bottoms or during lasting advances.
    ‘First Official Correction’
    “If we assume the bull market ended on April 23rd, it would be one of the weakest and shortest gains in the last 48 years,” Cleve Rueckert, an analyst at the research and money- management firm founded by Laszlo Birinyi, wrote in a note to clients today. “A more likely scenario is that the current bull market is experiencing its first official correction.” A correction is typically defined as a drop of at least 10 percent from a high.
    JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America Corp. rallied at least 4.5 percent to pace gains in 77 of 79 stocks in the S&P 500 Financials Index
  • [Updated] BFL reply from MarketWatch, 22 May 10
  • We should go for markets’ value gems now.

    #BFL is a value gem.
  • [Updated] #BFL, TAFL, HDFC, HA... reply from MarketWatch, 22 May 10
  • We do not want to be expert to beat the market. Sometimes so-called experts make some bigger blunders in their investments.

    New investors and traders should learn as much as possible before they buy their first home, first stocks, first commodities etc.

    I already said those who have above average knowledge and experience would have edge over others during next four months. Always there will be opportunities for intelligent players.

    Who were the biggest losers during current global market volatility in all types of market?

    Inexperienced players, short-term players and speculators who sold their assets at the lowest price. .

    We should have reason to buy and sell stocks.

    Some will sell stocks to buy personal things. Some will sell stocks to settle their credit. Some have target and they will sell stocks. Some will never sell some stocks and they know their long-term value.

    Different players will buy stocks for different reasons and they will have time horizon as well.

    Some will buy for one day, one week, one month, and one year

    Some will buy and keep for more than five years.

    Some want to see quick gain.

    Some are forecasting their stocks will double and treble within a week or month.

    It all depends on market players, general market conditions and other factors. In the short run, stocks can go up and down.

    Nobody can predict future 100% correctly. In stock markets, there are risks as well. Some think only rewards are there.

    However time to time some stocks, groups and sectors will out perform other sectors, stocks and groups.

    Some Fundamental tortoise investors will not worry much about market correction, short term volatility etc. They are for the long run. They know their companies very well. They know their businesses. They know their balance sheet. They know their debt level. Then they know their current asset position. They know their products and strong demand for their products. They know they are going to make strong profits in the future too. They know their companies will become more and more attractive in the future. They know they have invested in future earnings, growth and higher future ROE and in an undervalued company. They know they are not in hot stocks and tech stocks. They know even they do not want to look at charts. They know their pattern now (not the chart pattern)

    We have to learn lot of things in the market. Nobody is expert.

    Do you know before announcing attractive results, plantations stocks such as #MASK, #BALA and #AGAL went up. For example when bala announced negative results it came down from Rs.38 to around Rs.30 level. Then it shot up to Rs.40 level before the quarterly results. After attractive quarterly results, it has pull backed to around Rs.37 level. That is CSE. Then if you see some hot stocks, they are trading above the profitable plantations companies. Some have net asset per share less than Rs.5/-.. Have mountain of debt and we do not see any profit making either. However, stocks prices are trading above Rs.30

    At current price of Rs.52, #BFL is massively undervalued. It has strong fundamentals now. They have less debt and higher ROE as well. I think they will announce their final dividend as well. It is number one attractive undervalued farm stock in the CSE. As a future leader, BFL will shine in the market in the future.

    TAFL is a weak competitor in the group but they should make profit next quarter as well. Fundamentally not that sound.

    Those who bought #TAFL at Rs.10 level had more than 50% return during short period.

    There will be demand for farm products due to tourism industry.

    #Haly also making good profits now.

    Finally remember market direction can change suddenly. When some becomes cautious, markets can go up strongly.

    For example, in the morning, players became bearish and at the close of the day, bull took over the market in DOW.

    I said it would rebound Friday. I think both Indian and HONGKONG
    Market will go up strongly on Monday. We will some strong rallies in some commodities as well.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5ewXALKTwQM&pos=1

    Stocks Rout Halts, Euro Advances as Risk Demand Stabilizes

    May 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks jumped, halting a weeklong global slide, while the euro rose for a third day and Treasuries erased an early gain on speculation the rout in risky assets overshot the potential damage from Europe’s debt crisis.
    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 1.5 percent to 1,087.69 at 4 p.m. in New York, erasing a morning drop of 1.5 percent that dragged the gauge below its weakest level during the May 6 crash. Brazil’s Bovespa index surged 3.6 percent, while copper jumped the most since February on signs of stronger demand in China. Currencies of commodity producing nations rallied versus the dollar. The 30-year Treasury yield rose one basis point to 4.1 percent after earlier dropping to 3.98 percent, its lowest level of the year.
    The expiration of U.S. stock options added to market swings after the S&P 500 yesterday tumbled 3.9 percent, the most in more than a year. Financial shares in the S&P 500 rose 3.6 percent as a group as the Senate’s passage of legislation to reform the industry eased uncertainty surrounding the makeup of the new rules.
    “Technically speaking we’re very oversold -- really that’s the understatement of the year,” said Walter Todd, who helps manage about $800 million at Greenwood Capital in Greenwood, South Carolina. “I’d rather be buying now than I would three weeks ago.”
    Rebound After Correction
    Today’s gain in the S&P 500 came after the benchmark index for U.S. stocks slumped yesterday to its lowest level since February as an unexpected increase in jobless claims and a surprise drop in the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators called into question the strength of the economic rebound.
    The S&P 500 opened today trading at about 15.5 times the reported operating earnings of its companies over the past 12 months, the lowest valuation since July. The index erased its gain in the final hour of trading, only to rally 1.5 percent in the session’s final 20 minutes.
    The rally that began 14 months ago is probably intact if history is any guide, Birinyi Associates Ltd. said. The S&P 500 fell 12 percent from a 19-month high on April 23 through yesterday as concern grew that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis would snuff out the global economic recovery.
    Thirteen of 15 comparable drops the Westport, Connecticut- based firm calculated since 1945 have occurred either at bear market bottoms or during lasting advances.
    ‘First Official Correction’
    “If we assume the bull market ended on April 23rd, it would be one of the weakest and shortest gains in the last 48 years,” Cleve Rueckert, an analyst at the research and money- management firm founded by Laszlo Birinyi, wrote in a note to clients today. “A more likely scenario is that the current bull market is experiencing its first official correction.” A correction is typically defined as a drop of at least 10 percent from a high.
    JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America Corp. rallied at least 4.5 percent to pace gains in 77 of 79 stocks in the S&P 500 Financials Index.
  • [Updated] any idea about #TYRE reply from MarketWatch, 20 May 10
  • Keep an eye on agri based and attractive food processing stocks. Global markets have volatility. But attractive pouty food stocks are up. Even top investment banks and top trend analysts are upgrading global poultry stocks now.

    In Sri-Lanka we have powerful #BFL. Learn more about it. It is number one massively undervalued attractive stock in the CSE now.

    I normally will not use word buy and sell stocks. But first time I mentioned #BFL is an aggressive buy. Pl do your home work before buying and selling any stocks.

    Recently I posted what should do we do during next 10 months?

    We should buy attractive tortoise stocks aggressively.
    We should sell overvalued and hot stocks
    We should buy and hold some special stocks

    We should fall in love with life time opportunity. We should not fall in love with hot stocks, overvalued stocks and speculative stocks.
  • [Updated] Adding # BFL #LCEY ... reply from MarketWatch, 19 May 10
  • Do not take one-month approach. I think it is better to go for four-month approach. Because some stocks will have good run. There will be some good run including fundamentally weak stocks at the end of this month and in June.

    Short term trading in any types of market is very dangerous.

    Everybody should have their own successful strategy/

    We should not miss some lifetime opportunity by trading within the short period.

    I believe long-term approach is the best. We should fall in love with some special stocks.
    We should not fall in love with some other stocks.

    Globally markets go up and down. However, poultry stocks are outperforming the market. Most of them are going up. Particularly powerful poultry food stocks will go up further.

    They will outperform market in 2010 and 2011. They have become favourite picks even among top investment bank and top trend technical analysts now

    For me #BFL is more attractive than any other poultry stocks in the world.

    Now traders and investors are paying premium for both #LCEY AND #HALY due to their earnings. In the banking sector, #COMB has done well. Another food stock in Sri-Lanka #nest broke Rs.600/ barrier today.

    In short, food, agri based, travel and tourism based and hot beverage companies will do well.

    Companies such as #HAYL, #SPEN also should benefit. There is a possibility that #SPEN will reach Rs.2000 barrier.


    Keep an eye on groups rallies time to time.
  • [Updated] # BFL run.... reply from MarketWatch, 19 May 10
  • #BFL is not a hot stock. It is powerful food processing company in ASIA now. It has synergy with global poultry leader. They are producing the world’s most efficient broilers due to synergy with global poultry leader: Cobb-Vantress.

    It has strong fundamentals

    They will have higher earnings, higher ROE and demand for their products in the future

    It is number one massively undervalued attractive stock in the CSE.

    It has a pattern, success story and long journey.

    Future earnings are more important

    They have three markets for their products now.

    Local market
    Tourist Market and
    Export market.
    .
    Pl keep an eye on some new developments.
  • [Updated] Next Hot Stock reply from MarketWatch, 19 May 10
  • #BFL is not a hot stock. It is powerful food processing company in ASIA now. It has synergy with global poultry leader. They are producing the world’s most efficient broilers due to synergy with global poultry leader: Cobb-Vantress.

    It has strong fundamentals

    They will have higher earnings, higher ROE and demand for their products in the future

    It is number one massively undervalued attractive stock in the CSE.

    It has a pattern, success story and long journey.

    Future earnings are more important

    They have three markets for their products now.

    Local market
    Tourist Market and
    Export market.
    .
  • [Updated] # BFL run.... reply from thilina84, 19 May 10
  • Certainly it should move up. But #BFL might come down to 48 ~ 50 levels before this move.
  • [Updated] Next Hot Stock reply from cse.see, 19 May 10
  • With in One Month.....

    #LCEY to break Rs.130/- plus
    #SINS to break Rs.120/-
    #HAYL to break Rs.325/- plus
    #BFL to break Rs.64/-
    #MGT to break Rs.45/-
  • [Updated] #BALA reply from MarketWatch, 18 May 10
  • We can not compare #BFL with plantations. It has a deferent success story.
    Still we haven’t seen their biggest growth in their business life. Think about medium and long term basis.

    Plantations have different pattern and personalities. In some period they will become very bullish time to time. Pl Be patient.

    Let #BALA to go slowly and systematically like a tortoise. So that those who like this company can accumulate slowly.
  • [Updated] #TAFL reply from MarketWatch, 17 May 10
  • We should think about future earnings, growth attractive valuation..

    Do you know #BFL is more attractive than before? Pl do some study?

    We should follow profitable companies such as #COMB and # BFL

    Keep an eye on some plantations companies. Even MASK and MADU can go up.

    Big brothers had good run. Remaining sisters in plantations also could go up just as TAFL
  • [Updated] Market Rumors reply from MarketWatch, 17 May 10
  • Now Mr Market has recognized true value of #BFL. I already said TAFL and GRAN could go up due to sister affects.

    It is happening now. Even Rohit said wait until June

    TAFL is a weak competitor. It has accumulated losses. #BFL is strong competitor. They are making good profits. . It is the best managed company and current leader and future leader in the group.

    I knew in advance that fundamentally weak stocks would go up in this market. However, we are taking high risk in trading these types of stocks and hot stocks.

    Future earnings, valuation, low debt, extremely bullish trend are important for me.

    Good luck.
  • [Updated] Market Rumors reply from MarketWatch, 17 May 10
  • I identified BFL as a hidden gem in advance. It is a great company now.

    Pl look for their new developments, they had some new developments time to time:

    They formed join venture with foreign partner to produce world most efficient boiler chicks in Sri-Lanka.

    They entered the export market recently.

    They announced better than above average results and beat the some analyst’s estimations except intelligent analysts. Intelligent analysts identified the potential of #BFL in advance.

    Good luck for your stock hunting. You will find some hidden gems in the future.
  • [Updated] #LCEY - Can break Rs... reply from MarketWatch, 17 May 10
  • Hi CSE. SEE

    We should go behind tortoise companies that can deliver good results not only during next four quarters but also during next five years. In addition, they should outperform the market. In some groups, they have cash cow companies. Because they know how to do business and how to compete with others. They will make remaining companies also as cash cows in the future.

    Some new insurance and finance companies will become stronger competitors in the future. Some finance and insurance companies will become weak.

    Some never thought that #BFL would become a cash cow company in the future. It has a long successful journey now. They will break many barriers in the future.

    Future earnings are more important in addition to other factors such as attractive valuation, strong management with innovative ideas etc.

    Always some stocks, some groups and sectors will outperform market time to time.

    I particularly like your short and sweet analysis on stocks.


    Thanks.
  • [Updated] #BALA reply from MarketWatch, 17 May 10
  • I completely agree with you. After #BFL, #BALA IS most attractive to me now.

    However, I noticed there is a completely different pattern for most of the plantations companies when compare with stocks in other sectors.

    #BFL is an aggressive buy for me. #BALA is strong buy for me. We should upgrade these stocks to the next level now. That is my rating. Different people will have different types of rating.

    #BFL is number one attractive undervalued stock in the CSE now.

    We should have reason to buy and sell stocks

    It is not too high to buy and it is not too low to sell.

    Future earnings are more important than past.
  • [Updated] BFL - Strong Buy....... reply from MarketWatch, 16 May 10
  • If we buy right stocks at the right time, we will not have any problems

    We have to see completely different angle on #BFL now. In the past #GRAN was the leader and it traded above Rs.200/. Even their sister company #TAFL traded above Rs.50/-

    Time to time some companies will emerge as leaders. BFL is current leader and it is going to be future leader too. Now their market not only limited to local but also to the export market.

    There are lot of things to learn. By now, we must have idea about stocks and groups that are going to outperform market during next five months, next 21 months and next five years.

    Then we should understand about some pattern (not the chart pattern), extremely bullish pattern, extremely bearish stocks, stock with more volatility, stocks with less volatility, tortoise stocks and bull stocks in down market, bear stocks in up market, etc.

    Globally even, in a current volatility market, selected best managed food processing/ Poultry companies are outperforming now. They have very favourable business environment now. In fact, Top technical trend analysts, top investment banks are upgrading some poultry stocks now. It is same from USA to Indonesia.

    We should have reason to buy and we should have time horizon as well. It doesn’t matter stocks is going up by 10% or going down to by 10% if we can get above average returns in the medium term and long term.

    In short, BFL has further upside potential. Pl refer to my precious answers.

    When we try to select stocks, we will make some errors. However, with high degree of skills we can have above average results. We should continuously learn some important factors.

    In the past stocks such as #NEST, #KVAL and #WATA outperform the market especially during last five years. #BFL has all the characteristics to the outperform market not only during next five months, next 21 months but also next five years

    As I said earlier, those who have above average knowledge and experience will beat other players during next five months. Still there are plenty of speculators in the market, any IPO will oversubscribe within a day. To have some sort of correction we should have two or more shakeouts in the market to eliminate speculators. In a correction some stocks will come down by 10%, some will come down by 5%, some will strange, some will come down around 20% and some will go up slowly and systematically.

    Some times correction will never come. Instead, we will have stocks, groups and sector oriented correction time to time. Similarly we will have stocks, groups and sector oriented bull markets time to time.



    Those who new to the markets should not go behind hot stocks now.

    I think state funds will go for fundamentally sound value stocks with great growth potential during next five months.

    We will see rapid growth in Agri-Business, tourism Plantation and capital market during next five years. I can see Policy makers are taking some positive steps and decisions. In Agri-Business sector there will be lot of export opportunities during next five years. Farmers should benefit. Once their income level go up there will be lot of demand for other products.
  • [Updated] BFL - Strong Buy....... reply from thilina84, 16 May 10
  • I was also following #BFL for a long time and it is really fundamentally strong stock that we can keep under our portfolio without any fear, even when it went 10% down.

    But what I noticed in #BFL is that in some times there are only few people wiling to buy this. Few weeks back it moved from 40 to 44 and next day it touched 50 levels. But again came down to 43 level with low volumes. Again it touched 51 and came down to 46. This is something that swing traders will delighted see in a fundametally strong stock like #BFL.

    Now it is trading at 52. But what we can derive from past patterns is #BFL has a possibility come down to 48 ~ 49 level again with low volumes.

    Also I'm bit concerned about market correction. If it happened even stocks like #BFL can come down by a considerable amount.
  • [Updated] BFL - Strong Buy....... reply from MarketWatch, 16 May 10
  • My answer should adjust as follows:

    Bloomberg. I completely agree with you. I mentioned pullbacks are great opportunities to buy companies that we like and attractive stocks.

    We need new ideas. Can you name some other stocks? Therefore, we can keep our radar during next five years and we can do some study. Thanks.

    #BFL is number one attractive value stock with attractive ROE in the CSE now. We should upgrade this stock to the next level and it is a strong buy. We should accumulate during next 12 months.


    BFL should not declare higher final dividend now. Because they have excellent opportunities to expand their business in the future. So that they can bring medium term and long-term shareholder value.

    Once they completed future investment opportunities and once they have excess cash they can buy back stocks in the future.

    BALA

    Earning per share Quarterly ending 31/03/2008

    Audited 3.67

    #BALA should have around Rs, 90,000,000 after tax profit and earning per share over 3.67 in this quarter

    Quarter ending 31/03/2010 EPS:

    UDPL EPS: 2.5
    HAPU EPS:2.01
    KVALEPS: 3.29

    Due to higher UVA tea prices, some times they will have after tax profit over Rs, 100, 000,00 and earning per share above 4 in this quarter.

    Once they announce results, we can get some idea.

    Both #KVAL and # WATA outperformed the market during last five years. They are from plantation sector. Therefore, it is very important sector in the CSE.

    We should increase some stocks in existing stakes. Now we can get idea about few promising stocks and we should accumulate aggressively during next 10 months.

    After all, uncovering great companies selling at great prices is the lifeblood of successful investing?

    We should fall in love with special stocks not with hot and speculative stocks

    Thanks.
  • [Updated] BFL - Strong Buy....... reply from MarketWatch, 16 May 10
  • Bloomberg. I completely agree with you. I mentioned pullbacks are great opportunities to buy companies that we like and attractive stocks.

    We need new ideas. Can you name some other stocks? Therefore, we can keep our radar during next five years and we can do some study. Thanks.

    #BFL is number one attractive value stock with attractive ROE in the CSE now. We should upgrade this stock to the next level and it is a strong buy. We should accumulate during next 12 months.


    BFL should not declare higher final dividend now. Because they have excellent opportunities to expand their business in the future. So that they can bring medium term and long-term shareholder value.

    Once they completed future investment opportunities and once they have excess cash they can buy back stocks in the future.

    BALA

    Earning per share Quarterly ending 31/12/2008

    Audited 3.67

    #BALA should have around Rs, 90,000,000 after tax profit and earning per share over 3.67 in this quarter

    Quarter ending 31/12/2010 EPS:

    UDPL EPS: 2.5
    HAPU EPS:2.01
    KVALEPS: 3.29

    Due to higher UVA tea prices, some times #BALA will have after tax profit over Rs, 100, 000,00 and earning per share above 4 in this quarter.

    We must nor forget coming UVA TEA season will benefit #BALA, #MADU and #NAMU

    Once they announce results, we can get some idea.

    Both #KVAL and # WATA outperformed the market during last five years. They are from plantation sector. Therefore, it is very important sector in the CSE.

    We should increase some stocks in existing stakes. Now we can get idea about few promising stocks and we should accumulate aggressively during next 10 months.

    After all, uncovering great companies selling at great prices is the lifeblood of successful investing?

    We should fall in love with special stocks not with hot and speculative stocks.
  • [Updated] #BALA management fee reply from MarketWatch, 16 May 10
  • This time they have declared RS.1.25 share. Their dividend rate in 2009 is Rs.0.75. Some improvement is there. Company is must be doing well due to their strong management. Otherwise, can they bring down debt level dramatically in their books and increased dividend this time?

    To manage a business successfully for the long run, companies need to generate cash and keep debt low. It also gives it more flexibility to invest its cash back into the business so that it can expand, invest and develop new products.

    This is what both #BFL and #BALA are doing. They are reducing their debt gradually. They will be strong competitor in the short run, medium term and long term.

    If we get another credit crunch, in the future companies with higher debt will find more difficult to borrow money.

    Companies with consistent cash flow can finance their own growth, and therefore can stand on their own two feet.

    We should hunt companies with low debt, high cash flow, and an attractive valuation.
  • [Updated] #BALA likely to pay ... reply from MarketWatch, 16 May 10
  • This time they have declared RS.1.25 share. Their dividend rate in 2009 is Rs.0.75. Some improvement is there. Company is must be doing well due to their strong management. Otherwise, can they bring down debt level dramatically in their books and increased dividend this time?

    To manage a business successfully for the long run, companies need to generate cash and keep debt low. It also gives it more flexibility to invest its cash back into the business so that it can expand, invest and develop new products.

    This is what both #BFL and #BALA are doing. They are reducing their debt gradually. They will be strong competitor in the short run, medium term and long term.

    If we get another credit crunch, in the future companies with higher debt will find more difficult to borrow money.
  • [Updated] #TWOD reply from MarketWatch, 16 May 10
  • Pissa6666 you are right. We should go for value stocks now. We should keep above stocks under our radar during next five years.

    We should have patience as well. Different stock will go up and down at different times.

    I think we are in right stocks at right time.

    If I am correct, Up to last Friday following plantations companies have announced their results:

    TPL. #KVAL, #HAPU and #UDPL

    All of the above companies have announced attractive quarterly results.

    UVA TEA quality season will start in July and plantations companies such as #BALA, #NAMU and #MADU will benefit most.

    In the banking sector #NTB, NDB, PABC, HSBC and HNB reported their results.

    In poultry group #GRAN, #TAFL and #BFL announced their results last Friday.

    As groups, Plantations and Food processing (poultry) are doing well. They even will have better results in the next quarter.
  • [Updated] #TWOD reply from pissa6666, 15 May 10
  • Actually, I will not put #TWOD in the same league of #GREG. Reason is, though the accounting treatment of biological assets is a bit grey, TWOD at least has the focus, specialisation and investment in Srilanka in such area. #GREG talks about first raising the capital, and sendig the money out in the most controversial way, investment in platinum mines which is greek in language and fairy tale in substance. To raise capital and invest in companies like #CLPL, you do not need to invest in #GREG. Close ended funds like #NAVF will do that job.

    When it comes to value stocks, I had my stakes in #RICH, #LFIN, #BFL, #GRAN and #BALA, all these have been recongnised by the market now.

    I also find value in #NTB, #PABC, #CWM, #LHL, #AGAL, #CERA, #LWL, #LALU & #MGT, though some of the shares are a bit illiquid and stagnating right at the moment.
  • [Updated] #TWOD reply from MarketWatch, 15 May 10
  • Time to time suddenly some stocks become very hot and very active.

    There was heavy trading in TWOD in the past with volatility just as GREG today. When
    Raj Rjaaratnmam and his hedge fund tried to trade stocks such as #BALA, DIST, CIC, TWOD, CLPL they had more and more active trading.

    In some period even some blue chips stocks became very hot and they traded above Rs.600/-

    I said there would be some run in some stocks, groups and there are few more fundamentally weak stocks they also will have great run in the coming weeks.

    Now there is active trading in stocks such as ACAP, DPL, #ECL.

    What can you say about their earning history?

    Can you expect attractive earnings in the future?

    Hot stocks VS value stocks

    Which type of stocks do you like most now? I think we should go behind some attractive value stocks now.

    In the mean time #, SPEN broke Rs.1500 barrier last Friday and reported all time high. Similarity #BFL broke Rs.50 barrier and reported all time high Rs.53.50

    #BFL has become number one attractive stock in the CSE now. Their success story will continue.

    Thanks.
  • [Updated] The CSE Chicken Run reply from MarketWatch, 14 May 10
  • As I expected both poultry and plantation sector made profits in this quarter

    If I am correct, Up to last Friday following plantations and poultry related companies have announced their results:

    TPL, KVAL, HAPU, BFL, UDPL, TAFL and GRAN

    UVA TEA quality season will start in July and plantations companies such as BALA, NAMU and MADU will benefit most.

    .We can expect improved results and above average results from some of the above companies in both poultry and plantation groups during next four quarters as well.

    Some will have improved cash flow in addition to they will reduce their debt level further. One company will have attractive ROE in the current financial year. They will have one of the best ROE during next financial year

    #BFL has become number one attractive and massively undervalued stocks with great potential in the CSE now.

    Remember future earnings and fundamentals are more important that past earnings.
  • [Updated] #BFL Profits up reply from MarketWatch, 14 May 10
  • Now Policy makers have taken some positive action to develop maize in Sri-Lanka. They want to see further development not only in poultry group but also some other agri-based group as well.

    They have identified and given priority for sectors such as tourism and Agri-Business now.

    They already have taken some positive actions to develop Agri-Busines sector in Sri-Lanka

    #BFL has three markets now:

    Local Market
    Tourist Market
    Export Market

    Year 2011 going to year of visit Sri-Lanka. Poultry companies will have more and more work in the future and they will have to expand their business due to increased number of tourists.

    When tourist number increases to over 2 million per year, there will be more and more demand for poultry products.

    In short government will not import heavily now. They have a clear policy on Agri-Business sector now. We will see one of the fastest growths in this sector during next five years.

    There is shortage in chicks and chicken products in many south Asian countries. Chick price have doubled. Chicken prices also have gone up. With shortage, still they do not want to import poultry products including chicks from India due to bird flue threat.

    Even in Russia, there is a good demand and Turkey cannot supply total demand.
  • [Updated] Plantation Stocks #K... reply from MarketWatch, 14 May 10
  • CSC_STOCK You are right. By mistake, I have mentioned HOPL. They have mot announced yet.

    If I am correct, Up to last Friday following plantations companies have announced their results:

    #TPL. #KVAL, #HAPU and #UDPL

    All of the above companies have announced attractive quarterly results.

    UVA TEA quality season will start in July and plantations companies such as #BALA, #NAMU and #MADU will benefit most.

    .As I expected both poultry and plantation sector made profits in this quarter. We can expect improved results and above average results from some of the above companies in the next four quarters as well. They will have improved cash flow in addition to they will reduce their debt level further. One company will have attractive ROE in the current financial year. They will have one of the best ROE during next financial year

    #BFL has become number one attractive and massively undervalued stocks with great potential in the CSE now.
  • [Updated] #BFL Profits up reply from manjugodage, 14 May 10
  • Mr.MW & All other members,

    What will happen to #BFL, when govt. decide to import Poultry items(broilers) heavely?
  • [Updated] #SINS, #BFL, #LCEY reply from MarketWatch, 14 May 10
  • We can see attractive results from #KVAL,

    More news in poultry group!


    #GRAN has increase profits and turnover

    Their sister company #TAFL also has made small profit even though they have accumulated losses.

    Group has reported a net profit of Rs.0.52 Mn during the 1st quarter of 2010 as
    compared to a net loss of Rs.82.19 Mn reported in the 1st quarter of 2009.

    I think we can expect better results from poultry group in the future.

    #BFL is clear winner, current leader and future leader in the group. Their success story will continue further.
  • [Updated] #BFL Profits up reply from MarketWatch, 14 May 10
  • We can see attractive results from #KVAL,

    More news in poultry group!


    #GRAN has increase profits and turnover

    Their sister company #TAFL also has made small profit even though they have accumulated losses.

    Group has reported a net profit of Rs.0.52 Mn during the 1st quarter of 2010 as
    compared to a net loss of Rs.82.19 Mn reported in the 1st quarter of 2009.

    I think we can expect better results from poultry group in the future.

    #BFL is clear winner, current leader and future leader in the group. Their success story will continue further.
  • [Updated] Why is #HAYC going d... reply from cse.see, 14 May 10
  • Read my previous last POST about Haycarb.
    Everything in Haycarb is VERY VERY GOOD.
    But, Market is worried about quarter on quarter growth.
    Now, I think better to sell #HAYC & minimize your loss.
    You can recover your loss, by re-investing in #BFL & #LCEY.

    * Time to say "GOOD BYE HAYCARB" as a short term period.

    If long term investor, wait till next quarter results.
  • [Updated] #SINS, #BFL, #LCEY reply from MarketWatch, 14 May 10
  • Pl read my previous posting on BFL to learn more about their subsidiaries including their synergy with global poultry leader and other poultry products etc. They entered export market in January by exporting world most efficient Cobb boiler chicks. They have joined venture with foreign partner to produce Cobb boiler chicks in Sri-Lanka.
    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/focus/cobb/7/cobb-vantress-primary-broiler-breeders

    Cobb-Vantress, Incorporated
    Cobb is the world’s leading supplier of broiler breeding stock and technical expertise for the chicken meat industry.

    Cobb works with customers in more than 90 countries to provide for the growing demand for chicken, helping them to increase production efficiency and improve overall returns. Care for the welfare of the chickens and for the needs of the customers is central to the Cobb philosophy


    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/focus/cobb/59/cobb-500-the-worlds-most-efficient

    Cobb500™
    The worlds most efficient
    The world’s most efficient broiler has the lowest feed conversion, best growth rate and an ability to thrive on low density, less costly nutrition. These attributes combine to give the Cobb500™ the competitive advantage of the lowest cost per kilogram or pound of live-weight produced for the growing customer base worldwide.
    The Cobb500™ has:
    • Lowest cost of live weight produced
    • Superior performance on lower cost feed rations
    • Most feed efficient
    • Excellent growth rate
    • Best broiler uniformity for processing
    • Competitive breeder

    http://www.cobb-vantress.com/AboutUs/CobbHistory.aspx

    How Cobb has become world leader
    Cobb is the world's oldest poultry breeding company. Beginning in 1916 in Massachusetts, USA, Cobb has developed into the global leader in broiler breeding.







    I give below one of my previous posting:

    More about #BFL

    They have characteristics of Aggressive Growth, Growth & Income, Momentum, and Value and they will outperform broad market in 2010 and 2011

    Synergy with Cobb Vantrees Global leader in Poultry

    Have concentrated in on the core business very well

    Took timely action to dispose non-productive areas

    The management have a determination to continue to develop products and process

    Companies have an above average sales organization

    They have good cost analysis and account control-They are consistently winning awards for their accounts from Institute of chartered accountant of Sri-Lanka

    They are not issuing new shares and right issues frequently

    After turnaround, they made profits for the last two years
    So far, current year has announced above average and better than expected results.

    They can produce Cobb boiler chicks : the world’s most efficient broilers locally now and it will improve their bottom line and will enable them to maintain their strong position in the market as the preferred and leading supplier of broiler day-old chicks.

    When they start to expand their market, products BFL will become one of the most sought after stock in the CSE.

    I think in the current financial year they are in a position to increase earnings, , growth and Cash position in addition to attractive ROE and good financial ratios. It will become more undervalued.

    They have limited commercial operation in maize and they are hoping to
    Commence full-scale maize production in the medium term in their land including company land in Trincomale District according to their latest annual report.

    Already they commenced their export and sometimes they will have export orders from Bangladesh as well due to decision to import chicken product from bird flue free country.

    They will have to supply chicken products not only to the local market but also to local and foreign tourist market and export market now. Currently more than 500 local tourists visit daily to Jaffna. What about other cities such as Trincomale, Manner and other north and east cities. They will have to supply chi ken products to north and east as well. This is the reason for slight shortage in chicken and egg in Sri-Lank. There is more demand than supply now. Eventually prices will go up.
  • [Updated] #BFL Profits up reply from MarketWatch, 14 May 10
  • Pl read my previous posting on BFL to learn more about their subsidiaries including their synergy with global poultry leader and other poultry products etc. They entered export market in January by exporting world most efficient Cobb boiler chicks. They have joined venture with foreign partner to produce Cobb boiler chicks in Sri-Lanka.
    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/focus/cobb/7/cobb-vantress-primary-broiler-breeders

    Cobb-Vantress, Incorporated
    Cobb is the world’s leading supplier of broiler breeding stock and technical expertise for the chicken meat industry.

    Cobb works with customers in more than 90 countries to provide for the growing demand for chicken, helping them to increase production efficiency and improve overall returns. Care for the welfare of the chickens and for the needs of the customers is central to the Cobb philosophy


    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/focus/cobb/59/cobb-500-the-worlds-most-efficient

    Cobb500™
    The worlds most efficient
    The world’s most efficient broiler has the lowest feed conversion, best growth rate and an ability to thrive on low density, less costly nutrition. These attributes combine to give the Cobb500™ the competitive advantage of the lowest cost per kilogram or pound of live-weight produced for the growing customer base worldwide.
    The Cobb500™ has:
    • Lowest cost of live weight produced
    • Superior performance on lower cost feed rations
    • Most feed efficient
    • Excellent growth rate
    • Best broiler uniformity for processing
    • Competitive breeder

    http://www.cobb-vantress.com/AboutUs/CobbHistory.aspx

    How Cobb has become world leader
    Cobb is the world's oldest poultry breeding company. Beginning in 1916 in Massachusetts, USA, Cobb has developed into the global leader in broiler breeding.







    I give below one of my previous posting:

    More about #BFL

    They have characteristics of Aggressive Growth, Growth & Income, Momentum, and Value and they will outperform broad market in 2010 and 2011

    Synergy with Cobb Vantrees Global leader in Poultry

    Have concentrated in on the core business very well

    Took timely action to dispose non-productive areas

    The management have a determination to continue to develop products and process

    Companies have an above average sales organization

    They have good cost analysis and account control-They are consistently winning awards for their accounts from Institute of chartered accountant of Sri-Lanka

    They are not issuing new shares and right issues frequently

    After turnaround, they made profits for the last two years
    So far, current year has announced above average and better than expected results.

    They can produce Cobb boiler chicks : the world’s most efficient broilers locally now and it will improve their bottom line and will enable them to maintain their strong position in the market as the preferred and leading supplier of broiler day-old chicks.

    When they start to expand their market, products BFL will become one of the most sought after stock in the CSE.

    I think in the current financial year they are in a position to increase earnings, , growth and Cash position in addition to attractive ROE and good financial ratios. It will become more undervalued.

    They have limited commercial operation in maize and they are hoping to
    Commence full-scale maize production in the medium term in their land including company land in Trincomale District according to their latest annual report.

    Already they commenced their export and sometimes they will have export orders from Bangladesh as well due to decision to import chicken product from bird flue free country.

    They will have to supply chicken products not only to the local market but also to local and foreign tourist market and export market now. Currently more than 500 local tourists visit daily to Jaffna. What about other cities such as Trincomale, Manner and other north and east cities. They will have to supply chi ken products to north and east as well. This is the reason for slight shortage in chicken and egg in Sri-Lank. There is more demand than supply now. Eventually prices will go up.
  • [Updated] #SINS, #BFL, #LCEY reply from cse.see, 14 May 10
  • We can see massive quarter on quarter growth....See Below....
    31.03.2010 - 71.1 Mn
    31.12.2009 - 21.8 Mn
    30.09.2009 - 24.9 Mn
    30.06.2009 - 12.5 Mn
    31.03.2009 - 10.2 Mn

    Clear growth company.....

    *** IMPORTANT ***
    EPS as at 31.03.2010 = 8.15
    P/E Ratio = 9.2
    Share Price to Adjust = 8.15 x 9.2 = Rs.74/-

    * This FUNDAMENTAL adjustment we can expect with in next week.
    * #BFL is mostly undervalue.
    * You can have a very clear 50% return with in next couple of days.
    * #BFL will break Rs.75/- next week.
  • [Updated] #BFL Profits up reply from cse.see, 14 May 10
  • We can see massive quarter on quarter growth....See Below....
    31.03.2010 - 71.1 Mn
    31.12.2009 - 21.8 Mn
    30.09.2009 - 24.9 Mn
    30.06.2009 - 12.5 Mn
    31.03.2009 - 10.2 Mn

    Clear growth company.....

    *** IMPORTANT ***
    EPS as at 31.03.2010 = 8.15
    P/E Ratio = 9.2
    Share Price to Adjust = 8.15 x 9.2 = Rs.74/-

    * This FUNDAMENTAL adjustment we can expect with in next week.
    * #BFL is mostly undervalue.
    * You can have a very clear 50% return with in next couple of days.
    * #BFL will break Rs.75/- next week.
  • [Updated] #BFL Profits up reply from MarketWatch, 14 May 10
  • I expected better than expected and above average results from few companies including BFL. #BFL has announced even better than I thought. .

    I did not expect such a financial result from Bairaha Farms. I think this is the best quarterly results announced by #BFL. Now always they will have great demand for their products due to tourist market, export market and local market in the future. Pl do more study.

    Factors to consider:

    Higher ROE
    Higher earnings per share
    They have reduced their debt further remarkably. Now they have ability to bring one of the lowest debt companies in the CSE
    Cash position, turnover and profits have increased due to export, tourist and local market.
    They will have rapid growth not only during next fiancial year but also during next five years.
    They have better cost control system now.
    It has become more undervalued now. P/E ratio has become around five now.

    From where we can find Hidden gem like BFL now.

    It has become more valuable A grade poultry company in the world. There are few great poultry companies including one attractive one in Indonesia.

    However, #BFL will beat most of the poultry companies in the world during next five years.

    Remember future earnings are more important than past earnings. They will have strong future earnings and growth. They can expand their business, market and product range as well.

    In short, I see everything in #BFL now. We should upgrade this stock to the next level now. New developments will make BFL more and more attractive.

    It is real gem now and strong buy. More later.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] #SINS, #BFL, #LCEY reply from MarketWatch, 14 May 10
  • I expected better than expected and above average results from few companies including BFL. #BFL has announced even better than I thought. .

    I did not expect such a financial result from Bairaha Farms. I think this is the best quarterly results announced by #BFL. Now always they will have great demand for their products due to tourist market, export market and local market in the future. Pl do more study.

    Factors to consider:

    Higher ROE
    Higher earnings per share
    They have reduced their debt further remarkably. Now they have ability to bring one of the lowest debt companies in the CSE
    Cash position, turnover and profits have increased due to export, tourist and local market.
    They will have rapid growth not only during next fiancial year but also during next five years.
    They have better cost control system now.
    It has become more undervalued now. P/E ratio has become around five now.

    From where we can find Hidden gem like BFL now.

    It has become more valuable A grade poultry company in the world. There are few great poultry companies including one attractive one in Indonesia.

    However, #BFL will beat most of the poultry companies in the world during next five years.

    Remember future earnings are more important than past earnings. They will have strong future earnings and growth. They can expand their business, market and product range as well.

    In short, I see everything in #BFL now. We should upgrade this stock to the next level now. New developments will make BFL more and more attractive.

    It is real gem now and strong buy. More later.

    Good luck
  • [Updated] #BALA reply from MarketWatch, 4 May 10
  • We should not forget globally we had volatility during last 12 months not only for stocks but also for gold and oil. However, it has appreciated gradually.

    OPEC is comfortable with #80 per barrel of oil. Other forces make fluctuation in oil between $65 to 90 now.

    Still global financial packages are intact. Low interest environment is not going to change soon.

    Despite Goldman sach debacle oil. Gold did not come down much.

    As I said earlier, there will be volatility time to time.

    Remember when there are shortages in something that means there is a demand for products and supply can increase. Even with large volume, global tea prices are better than last corresponding two years.

    There is a strong demand for poultry products globally. In some South Asian countries, broiler chicks and chicken prices have doubled due to shortage and strong demand. They want to import poultry products other than India now.

    Those who import boiler chicks from Australia, and Europe now ready to import form #BFL in Sri-Lanka. BFL already have demand for their world most efficient chicks from export market and they should explore their export market further now.

    Have you notice when foreigners buy more market will come down. When they sell, more market will go up. Yesterday more foreign buying than selling.

    We have to learn lot of things about market. We cannot predict the market But we will have correction in overvalued counters during next nine months.

    In second half, 2011 we will be able to see next direction of commodity market.

    It is better to keep our money in tortoise stocks now.

    Good luck.
  • [Updated] Time to rotate secto... reply from MarketWatch, 4 May 10
  • I am very bullish on following stocks than before due to some reasons.

    #BFL
    #BALA
    #KVAL
    #KGAL

    Even there will be some upside for second tier plantation stocks.

    Both TPL and MASK also will have some upside potential

    This is how I see in stocks according to my radar.

    I will be right or wrong.

    We should have faith on our companies and their business. We should think as a business not as stocks.

    Stocks are not too high to buy and not too low to sell depend on the situation.

    Intelligent investors, traders Technical players, momentum players, intelligent speculators, and speculates have different approach to each other in their trading

    We should have reason to buy and sell stocks.

    Some have different time horizon as well.

    Some have target price to sell before they buy stocks

    Fundamentals are very sound for above stocks. Their cash position will improve dramatically in the future. BFL will have attractive ROE.

    Thanks.
  • [Updated] Time to rotate secto... reply from rehan, 4 May 10
  • Already? Isn't the market just warming up to stocks like #BFL and #BALA ?

    Would be nice to hear some technical analysis on the subject; @stardust and @rohit ?

    Thanks
  • [Updated] AGALAWATTE PLANTATIO... reply from MarketWatch, 2 May 10
  • Hi Bandara! Happy to hear you are back.

    We should not worry much about price as long as we have bought right share at right price at right time, which are going to outperform market in the future.

    Recently #BALA broke one important barrier, which I was waiting for.

    Have you notice some stocks have pattern and they appreciate slowly and systematically like tortoise. Some stocks will go rapidly and they will come down rapidly due to poor fundamentals.

    We cannot win all the times in the market. Even top investors, traders, top banks, mathematicians, technical analysts, fundamental analysts all make mistake in the market.

    Otherwise, will they sell winning stocks and keep stocks, which are going to underperform market in the future? Some will have to write their research reports again at the end of this year.

    Stocks have personalitities. Different stocks will appreciate in different way and some will move just like tortoise. We should remember future earnings are more important than past.

    Due to sister affects remaining plantations stocks will go up in the near future. Companies such as MADU, NAMU have exposure to UVA tea just like #BALA.

    Some are writing research reports on some stocks. Members mentioned those stocks in this forum last year and have appreciated by more than 100%. I think few stocks will form their top during next seven weeks.

    I already said we should take profits in LFIN and HASU in next rallies.

    I may be right or wrong. Everybody has different reason to buy and sell stocks.

    Some have selected #BALA due to lower debt, future earnings, quality current asset, good current ratio etc

    Some plantations have nine time of debt of BALA. BALA has lowest debt among plantations companies.

    AS CSE, SEE said June Sep quarter going to be best UVA season. Even now UVA TEA has good auction price and in addition to low grown tea.

    Therefore, #BALA will benefit most.

    Bandara I am more bullish on BALA than before due to some new developments.

    AGAL also will go up.

    We should not forget some of the Rohit’s stocks are doing well even though he could not spot some of the profitable companies in Sri-Lanka.

    He said stocks such as GRAN, TAFL, NHL, and DIAL will have some movements and support level for some plantations stocks. Now from that support level for plantations stocks have gone up and now we are seeing new support levels. They will break soon.

    We will see powerful rally in poultry group and #BFL will lead the rally: it will bring it to the new high.

    By the way, what is your favorite group now?

    Thanks.
  • [Updated] #SAMP Price Breake R... reply from MarketWatch, 2 May 10
  • One thing I like to write here.

    Companies such as #SAMP, #KVAL,#WATA,#KGAL and #BFL broke one important barrier in the current major up trend. Therefore, some players will become more and more bullish.

    Recently both #WATA and #BFL broke another important milestone (barrier).

    On P/E ratio and on expected attractive ROE basis BFL is more attractive than WATA now. Out of all companies, BFL will do well in bad and good times during next five years.

    Remember stocks are not too high to buy and not too low to sell depend on the market situation. Stock trend, market trend and some other important factors related to the stock.

    Some intelligent traders and investors will buy aggressively when they see some records in important braking points. Remember there are different types of players in the market. They don’ like to go behind cheap stocks and speculative stocks with poor fundamentals.


    Still I believe there will be some upside potential for banking sector minus finance and insurance sub groups.

    Now I see next strong powerful rally for poultry subgroup and remaining plantation stocks. In this rally BFL will take to new records, once they announce annual results, and one we see their higher ROE, lower debt we will have to upgrade this stock further due to strong demand for their products from local market, tourist market and export market in the future.

    We will see STRONG plantation rally even in remaining plantation stocks with exposure to UVA and low grown tea. There will be some movements on plantations stocks with western tea as well.

    Stocks such as #BALA, #MADU and #NAMU have exposure to UVA tea. Currently there is a good demand and price for UVA tea. There is a good demand for low grown tea as well despite higher volume. #BALA has UVA tea, Low grown tea and rubber.



    This I said on my last posting on #SAMP to the question of DNR in February.


    It is one of the solid companies in the CSE.

    Investors have rewarded it by passing Rs.200/- barrier.

    Those who bought #SAMP at Rs.20/- must be enjoying ten-bagger appreciation now.

    We must thanks investors who invested at Rs.20/- and had patience to get capital gain.

    I think some banks will affect from the lower interest rate during next two quarters. Their will be some affects on the profit margin.

    However, once we see vibrant economy and developments in east north, tourism and farm sector, banks will have more opportunities in the long run.

    DNR I did not go detail in their balance sheet. We have to make sure whether banks are increasing their bad loans or not? Future earrings are more important than past. If companies such as #SAMP, #BFL can maintain their higher ROE, growth, earnings etc they will become most sought after stocks in the CSE.

    It is not too high to buy attractive undervalued stocks with great potential. Similarly, it is not too low to sell once fundamentals become weak.

    Definitely when asset quality is, good investors will recognize them.

    There may be some correction during next nine months. However, #SAMP can go even beyond Rs.500 if they can maintain above average growth, quality assets, and good loan portfolio and if they can maintain ROE above 20 during next five years.

    In the near term it can go to Rs.300/-. However, it depends on the market players.

    DNR I have seen you that you are going behind value stocks. That is great. Investors, traders, brokers and analysts just become panic by looking at one-quarterly results and without analyzing properly. They forget value factor, debt level and strong future earnings.

    People cannot eat gold, silver and platinum. These non-productive commodities will hit hard during next 18 months and some mining companies will become bankrupt. However, people need simple business. They cannot postpone eating and drinking even during bad times. Some food companies will have biggest growth during next 10 years. They will become ten baggers during next five years due to heavy demand


    This is what PISSA6666 said on #SAMP in February. . Do not underestimate his good answer as well. Future income are more important.

    Capital gain from the selling of 9.31% of shares in Lanka Bangla in Bangladesh would have contributed around Rs. 1.8Bn - Rs. 2Bn. This will not repeat every year unless the bank sells the balance 13% holding this year.

    Loan loss provision reversal - indicating good recoveries during the year - is around Rs516Mn. This also will not repeat every time.

    Keeping above in mind, future EPS cannot be expected to be consistent with Rs30.

    Considering above, I do not think that the share is worth more than the current price levels.
  • [Updated] #ATL (Amana) Split..... reply from MarketWatch, 1 May 10
  • Average investors with lack of knowledge in financial instruments and those new to the market should not trade stock issuing more and more right issues, warrant and stocks with subdivision and splits.

    We should have good understanding about stocks, their splits, value, market trend, stock trend, action, pattern in addition to fundamentals.

    I will post special reports on poultry group and Finance and insurance sub group later.

    Remember in bull markets stocks will go up. In bear market, stock will go down.

    We have to analyse value and future prospects before buying any share.

    I am very surprise about this unusual price move and why it went up so rapidly.

    I am thinking whether some players are trying to beat GREG and other hot stock players.

    I will write special report on insurance and finance sector in due course.

    In short, it is better to play stocks when they become tortoise stocks.

    We have to be careful when some stocks go up in big margin suddenly.

    #ATL went up to Rs.45/. My advice to my friend was Sell! Sell and Sell when it was coming below Rs.40/-. Today it is trading around Rs.29/-

    We should never buy on fake rally. Some traders are trying to put up prices irresponsibly.

    We should avoid stocks with warrants, more right issues and stocks with splits and subdivisions now. Pl pays attention to value and future fundamentals.

    I heard from some friends according to their Sharia law Islamic banks cannot speculate on commodities, currencies, interest rate etc. They have a system of profit sharing and they should not follow convention-banking model. Their investment should be on long-term basis, environment friendly and socially responsible.

    According to them, Islamic banking has become popular among all ethnicity in some countries due to their interest free dealings. Some say Islamic banking will become more and more popular in the future due to break of confidence in the conventional banking system.

    However, there are criticisms that some Islamic banks and insurance companies are following same instruments in a different name similar to instruments in the banking sector.

    In shorts in major uptrend, any stock can go up and in major down trend stocks will go down.

    Time to time there will be group oriented major up trends. Now we are seeing in the plantations group. Next, we will have powerful rally in poultry sub group due to positive outlook and strong performance of #BFL

    We had strong bull trend for Banking and Finance, Ceramic group.

    Now even we see strong uptrend in remaining undervalued stocks in some other sectors and speculative stocks.

    Finally, tortoise will win in 2010 and 2011.

    Best investment strategy: Invest and trade in tortoise stocks, which are going to outperform market in 2010 and 2011.

    Good luck.
  • [Updated] #BUKI, #GRAN, #OSEA reply from MarketWatch, 30 Apr 10
  • I think there will be powerful rally in poultry stocks and there is a potential to break following barriers.


    #GRAN can break Rs.27.50/-

    #TAFL can break Rs.15/

    And

    #BFL can break Rs.84.75/-. Their long term barriers are much higher.

    We have to closely watch the next most important barriers for #BFL

    Poultry group will have improved earnings in the next two quarters and #BFL will have attractive ROE. They will reduce their debt further.

    #BFL has three markets now.

    Local market including north and east
    Tourist Market- Next year going to be year of visiting Sri-Lanka. Those who live in abroad also will visit Sri-Lanka in 2011.
    Export Market

    Favorable Agri-Economic policy also will benefit Agri-Food companies. Export oriented companies and companies who create more job opportunities can get further benefits.

    Policy makers have identified value of food and beverage sector in Sri-Lanka.

    #BFL is number one Agri-Business/Food Farm Company with great growth potential in Sri-Lanka.
  • [Updated] Is #GRAN a good time... reply from MarketWatch, 30 Apr 10
  • Pl remember I never give tips and recommendation to buy and sell stocks.

    I only give my ideas on some stocks. Just because members mention stocks here including me, we should not buy and sell stocks. . We should do some study. Sometimes we have to follow considerable period on stocks to buy and sell.

    In major up trends stocks will go up and in major down trends stocks will go down.

    There should be some reason to buy and sell stocks. For me both #BALA and #BFL very attractive due to some reasons.

    When #Dock was trading around Rs.120, some said it has extended and I was strong supporter for that price. It went up to Rs.300/-. Similarly, I saw potential for #SAMP in advance. Now I see greet potential for both #BALA and #BFL.

    It is not too high to buy and it is not too low to sell depend on the situation, fundamentals, great value and some other factors.

    Good Luck!
  • [Updated] Is #GRAN a good time... reply from Tony12345, 30 Apr 10
  • Thanks MW. This made real sense to me.

    #GRAN, #TAFL would be a quick buy and sell within this week and the next 2 weeks.

    However has you mentioned, #BFL has prospects. Does it still make sense to buy them @ 49.50? and #BALA @ 40?
  • [Updated] Is #GRAN a good time... reply from MarketWatch, 30 Apr 10
  • Technical players if you can identify some trend there will be some opportunities in both #TAFL and #GRAN now.

    Tortoise investors and traders should concentrate on stocks such as #BFL and #BALA without going behind overvalued stocks and stocks with mountain of debt and in weak sisters. The strong sister is the best.

    Remember future earnings are more important.
  • [Updated] Is #GRAN a good time... reply from MarketWatch, 30 Apr 10
  • We should not buy any stock without following considerable period.

    GRAN can go up due sister affects of the group. Due to strong group leader #BFL, poultry group will have powerful rally sooner than later.

    Now #BFL has a potential to break not only Rs.63 barrier but also Rs.80/- barrier due to higher ROE, higher earnings and other favourable conditions.

    We have to carefully monitor their next most important barriers now.

    It will break previously all time high of #TAFL soon and will exceed current trading price of Keels food product #KFP. That is around Rs.76/-

    #BFL will become one of the great stocks in the CSE not only during next 21 months but also during also next five years.
  • [Updated] Buying and Selling s... reply from MarketWatch, 30 Apr 10
  • Hi Zahvie

    Both #BALA and #BFL are two of the most attractive stocks available in the CSE.

    Positive factors:

    Both have attractive value
    They are reducing their debt gradually and systematically
    Both declared dividend due to good cash flow
    They have strong demand for their products
    Both will make above average profits in the current quarter.
    They will reduce their debt further.
    #BFL should not declare higher finial dividend instead, they should expand their business now. This will increase shareholder value in the long run.

    We should buy only undervalued profitable companies with great potential. In addition, they should have strong pattern, theme, action and trend etc.

    It is not too high to buy and it is not too low to sell depend on the situation.

    Keep an eye on breaking some important barriers.

    Thanks.
  • [Updated] Quarterly Reports #R... reply from MarketWatch, 28 Apr 10
  • Above companies should announce their results before end of next month.

    Some companies will announce their quarterly results before 15ty of May.

    Some will announce after 15th. In August, we can expect next quarterly results.

    Some will announce earlier than last year due to improved earnings. Some when they are not making profits they will announce at the end of the month.

    We can expect above average results from companies such as #KGAL, #KVAL, #RICK, #HAYC, #BALA and #BFL etc in the current quarter.

    They will have good cash position.

    Both #BFL and #HAYC will have attractive ROE when compare with other companies in the CSE.

    Both #BFL and #BALA will reduce their debt further
  • [Updated] Quarterly Reports #R... reply from MarketWatch, 28 Apr 10
  • Above companies should announce their results before end of nest year.

    Some companies will announce their quarterly results before 15ty of May.

    Some will announce after 15th. In August, we can expect next quarterly results.

    Some will announce earlier than last year due to improved earnings. Some when they are not making profits they will announce at the end of the month.

    We can expect above average results from companies such as #KGAL, #KVAL, #RICK, #HAYC, #BALA and #BFL etc in the current quarter.

    They will have good cash position.

    Both #BFL and #HAYC will have attractive ROE when compare with other companies in the CSE.

    Both #BFL and #BALA will reduce their debt further.
  • [Updated] #BALA is not a large... reply from MarketWatch, 26 Apr 10
  • Factor to consider:

    #BALA has lowest debt among plantations companies .Some others have nine times of BALA
    Just as #KVAL and #KGAL, they have more current asset including cash and short-term investments than current liabilities
    They are in a position to reduce their debt level further
    In addition to TEA, rubber they have energy (fuel) tree as well
    Tea prices are better than corresponding last two years
    Currently both tea and rubber have attractive price and demand
    Companies with higher debt will become bankrupt first before others

    Pl refer to some positing and answers in the past.

    Thanks.

    Pl refer to some positing and answers in the past.

    CSE.SEE on #BALA

    •Keep your eye on with Balangoda Plantation. This share is mostly undervalue.

    No of Shares 23,636,363

    EPS
    2009.12.31 = 3.15 *This is very low because of due to Gratuity Adjustment.
    If you look 09 months ended 2009.09.30 EPS is 7.89.

    PER
    10.9 times

    NAV
    2009.12.31 = 52.15 *Currently this is trading below of the book value.

    REVENUE
    2009.12.31 = 2,506 Mn

    Net Profit PA
    2009.12.31 = 74.5 Mn *This is very low because of due to Gratuity Adjustment.

    Quarterly Profits
    2009.12.31 = (112) Mn *due to Gratuity Adjustment
    2009.09.30 = 80 Mn
    2009.06.30 = 85 Mn
    2009.03.31 = 20 Mn

    Quarterly Revenue
    2009.12.31 = 610 Mn
    2009.09.30 = 655 Mn
    2009.06.30 = 719 Mn
    2009.03.31 = 521 Mn

    Quarterly EPS
    2009.12.31 = (4.73) *due to Gratuity Adjustment
    2009.09.30 = 3.41
    2009.06.30 = 3.63
    2009.03.31 = 0.84

    Analyze:
    If you closely analyze #BALA, each quarter Revenue is about 650 Mn. Quarterly Profit is about 80 Mn. Quarterly EPS is about 3.5.
    If Annualized, Revenue 2,600 Mn, Profit 240 Mn & EPS 14.
    With latest recovery of Tea & Rubber Prices, We can expect #BALA can maintain EPS of 15 or more this year.
    Therefore, with the PE of 10.9 x 15 EPS we can predict Share Price adjustment to Rs.163.50.
    This can be achievable, because, if you look Watawala is trading In Rs.200/- with these adjustments.
    #BALA is mostly under value in this market.

    Positive factor :
    Announce Rs.1.25 Dividend this yaer with comparatively 0.75 last yaer. This may be a clear signal for their very good cash position. We can expect good results in 1st Quarter. Early short term Investors have a chance to collect this level with more than 75% return with in next month.

    One month earlier several times I have clearly mentioned that Lankem to Break Rs.100/-, Kotagala to Break Rs.65/-, Hayleys to Brak Rs.280/- & Haycarb to Braek Rs.185/- by May’10. Today all barriers passed.
    My Prediction #BALA will break Rs.70/- by end June’2010

    Pissa6666 and me on #BALA

    http://investnow.lk/2010/01/08/two-plantation-stock-to-watch-in-the-cse-:-#ala-and-#kgall/339/

    Posted by me On January


    Pl refer to answer given to pissa6666.

    Reply from pissa6666, 15 days ago for my another question.

    Friends, thanks for very healthy discussion based on your research findings.

    Basically, my intention of suggesting #BALA as an investment stock were:

    1. Sound financials
    2. Less gearing
    3. Good short term investment / deposits which cushions short term crises
    4. Prudent management
    5. Investment / strategy to plough back for sustainable production capacity
    6. Conservative dividend payment policy which ensures some return to the shareholder while ploughing back the profits

    Traders will attach excessive importance on quarterly profits. For them, now to exit and re-enter after price effect based on 31 Dec.09 financials make perfect sense.

    If we look at investment portfolio, given that the risks identified by you both are digestible(based on individual risk appetite), I would say #BALA is one of the best stocks for medium to long term value creation.

    If tea industry should sink, #BALA will be among the last companies to sink, provided Govt. completely turns a blind eye.

    What I feel is, we should not attach undue importance to a one off provision figure, created by the back dated wage agreement.


    More about #BALA

    Current Assets: 1004,075,000
    Current Liabilities: 590,014,000
    Short term investment: 230,620,000

    Call Deposits: 171,762,000

    Cash and Bank Balance: 46,457,000

    Long term borrowings; 93,023,000

    Short term borrowngs: 83,944,000

    Few Plantations stocks with mountain of debt and losses trading above Rs.30/-

    According to above facts #BALA is most attractive plantations stock in the CSE.

    Even #Watawala their current asset is equal to current liabilities.

    Whereas #BALA has more current asset than current liabilities.
    Almost double the amount of current liabilities.

    They have lowest debt in their book. Can you find stock similar to this in the plantations sector now?

    Nine months earnings per share: 7.89: Net assets per share: Rs.56.88


    Currently there is demand for #BFL in the Agri-business sector and #KGAL and #BALA in the plantation sector now.
  • [Updated] #atl going up reply from MarketWatch, 26 Apr 10
  • Pl read what I said in the past.

    Technical players if you are clever keep eye on both
    #
    ATL and ACAP

    I posted this on 8th Feb

    It is surprise to price movement on #ATL. I mentioned this stocks in my list last year. My friend must be happy now. He bought some #ATL.

    Fundamentally, these stocks are not attractive. Generally, I will think twice before buying these types of stocks.

    In case of ATL, they have some good investment in the following companies:

    #VVL is a power company.( 4rht largest shareholder according to 30/09 2009 results)
    #STAF (5th largest shareholder)

    I like to study some other companies as well to find out investment of #ATL.

    In addition, #BFL has selected as one of their banks for their business dealings.

    I think they may have some lucrative investment in other companies as well. Therefore, there will be some long-term potential in #ATL addition to attractive capital gain. They must be having attractive capital gain now. We have to some study once they release their results now.

    We have to keep eye on this company now. It can become anther-hidden gem

    Fundamentally, these stocks are not attractive. Generally, I will think twice before buying these types of stocks.

    FEB.
    •
    • Technical traders and momentum traders Keep eye on some stagnated stocks as well. We can see some movement in both #ACAP and #ATL now. #ATL can go up rapidly just as #SEMB.

    Do not buy any stocks at the top. Generally investors and traders do not buy stocks when they are trading around Rs.15/-. Once they pass around Rs.30/- everybody is trying to buy and finally stocks will end up with passing Rs.50/-. Sometimes it will reach to Rs.90 level until it becomes over priced.
  • [Updated] Rule 20 reply from MarketWatch, 24 Apr 10
  • Some recognizes that PE’s should be high in periods of low inflation according to rule 20.

    We cannot rely completely on market P//E due to following:

    Market is trading around P/E ratio of 20 due to few hot stocks, extremely overvalued sectors and stocks. Otherwise, it will have around average of P/E ratio of 15 now.

    Some sectors including hot stocks and penny stocks have P/E ratio of more than 140

    As I said earlier cement, hotel, power and health stocks and some other stocks in other sectors are overvalued.

    Some sectors are trading around P/E ratio of 20

    Even in the same sector, there will be undervalued stocks when compare with group and market P/E ratio.

    Some sectors and subgroups are massively undervalued when compare with other sectors and other sub groups

    However, due to increased earnings in the current quarter we will have to readjust current market P/E ratio. We can expect better than expected results from many companies in the current quarter.

    Market P/E ratio around 20

    P/E ratio of plantation sector around 14. Once they announce future earnings, some will have P/E ratio of less than 11. #BALA will have P/E ratio of less than 8.

    In Food sector, #BFL will have P/E ratio of less than 9 and higher ROE.

    Best investment and trading strategy:

    Invest and trade in massively undervalued stocks with promising future. Be tortoise now.
    Avoid all hot, penny, speculative, overvalued and hot stocks

    Tortoise will win at the end of this year. Fundamentals will drive the market during second half of this year.

    We will have correction in overvalued sectors, groups, hot stocks, penny stocks and other speculative stocks during next nine months.
  • [Updated] Will market react po... reply from MarketWatch, 21 Apr 10
  • Thanks NYMEX, Thanks cse.see

    I think cabinet will come down to 30. We never know sometimes it will be 20.

    As I said earlier my next market barriers are: 4100, 4200 and 4300.

    If it breaks 4300 there will be further upside.

    However I expect market correction during next 11 months, Some stocks more than 20%, Some stocks less than 5%, 10%, sideways and some will have appreciate slowly and systematically.

    Following are some barriers for some stocks:

    #COMB Rs.250/-
    #SAMP Rs.300/-
    #JKH # Rs.200 and Rs.220/- . Rs.220/- is very important for JKH
    #KVAL and #KGAL Rs.70 and Rs.80/-
    #BALA Rs.40/- Rs.50/- R.73 and Rs.80/-
    #BFL Rs.47.75, Rs.54 and Rs.63/
  • [Updated] BALA on the rise reply from MarketWatch, 21 Apr 10
  • We should keep following stocks under our radar during next five years among basket of attractive stocks.

    #KVAL
    #BALA
    #KGAL
    #BFL
    #HAYC
    #DIPD

    Now I see tortoise characteristics in both #BALA and #BFL.

    #KVAL had some tortoise characteristics in the past similar to #BFL.
  • [Updated] TWO STOCKS TO WATCH ... reply from rehan, 21 Apr 10
  • @cse_stock

    I try to look at days when the stock went higher on stronger volume as seen on the #BFL chart and also volume dry up which I see as critical as that gives the indication that even when moving lower, not many people want to sell - signs of a good stock ;)

    I've also been following @MarketWatch who laid the foundation by suggesting this stock but I also did some research to find that the financials were good.

    Fundamental and technical analysis together will prove very insightful.

    The general market indices are very important as even the best stocks won't be worth holding if the market tanks. The market to date looks healthy so that coupled together with a good stock can prove to be very profitable.

    I'm no expert so consult our other more experienced members and do your own homework before investing anything as the risk lies solely with you ;)

    Hope that helps :)
  • [Updated] TWO STOCKS TO WATCH ... reply from MarketWatch, 21 Apr 10
  • I am not a 100% strong chart follower.

    But I can see currently #BFL has one of the strongest charts in the CSE.

    Only few have this type of chart pattern.

    In short it has extemrely bullish chart.
  • [Updated] TWO STOCKS TO WATCH ... reply from MarketWatch, 20 Apr 10
  • Hi Rehan

    I think in the morning sellers withdrew their selling for #BFL below Rs.50/- and some did panic buying at Rs.50/-

    Genuine buyers were around Rs.45/-. Now #BFL have broken two important barriers.

    Then yesterday we also saw some spike in stocks such as #KOTA, #TWOD etc.

    I think we should follow tortoise strategy for stocks now. We should avoid overvalued counters.

    Next eight-week s very crucial for plantations companies. It will either make or break. .

    Thanks.
  • [Updated] #BFL & #GRAN reply from MarketWatch, 20 Apr 10
  • I always said that nobody cannot predict 100% correctly.

    We can see some fundamentals, future developments, pattern, themes, ideas, trend and action for some stocks time to time. We cannot identify bullish stock by looking at charts.

    We have to follow considerable period and spend time. In the mean times, we have to do some study as well because we do not get inside information, what sophisticated investors institutions and traders are doing etc.

    Charts are good for identifying current trend. Other than that, it is not that useful. Chartist cannot predict next great depression, market crash, market correction and next strong bull trend,

    We have to follow considerable period and spend time. In the mean times, we have to do some study as well because we do not get inside information, what sophisticated investors institutions and traders are doing etc.

    Every stock has different type of pattern. Some have very strong pattern. For example in the past #, KVAL appreciated similar to #BFL. It started from Rs.12, then it broker Rs.20, Rs.30, Rs.40 and Rs.50 barriers gradually. Finally it went up to Rs.78/-

    I thought when commodity market crash it will come down below .Rs.50/-. However, both #WATA #KVAL outperformed the market. Some said plantations stocks are not good for long-term investment. Even blue chips such as #JKH and #HHL came down to below Rs.60/-

    Once they release results, we should study about their ROE, CASH FLOW, and DEBT LEVEL ETC. Every time we see strong results, we have to upgrade their stock price now.

    One thing I want to tell you we must not chase any stock. There are pullbacks in strong market. Did you notice LFIN went from Rs. 40 to above Rs.50. Then it came back to Rs.43 level. Then there were some volatility. Finally broke and went above Rs.60 and stagnated for sometimes. Now it is trading around Rs.83/-

    #COMB, #SAMP, #JKH, #HAL,# HAYC, #HNB, #HASU, #COCO and #SPEN also had pattern and there were so many pull backs. Finally, all of above stocks broke some important barriers.

    It is better to study any stock before we decide to buy any stock. It is not too late to buy. Similarly it is not to high to buy and it is not too low to sell depend on the situation.
    But we must not buy wrong stock too late. Sell right stock too early.

    For example now we must study whether #HAYC is going to go to Rs.300/-. Now it is better than #JKH. For this, we should follow this stock. Without studying, we should not buy any stock suddenly.

    Both Hayles group and Richard Group should benefit from current low interest rate environment and positive business in plantations.

    When compare with cement, hotel and other overvalued and hot stocks we can see at least positive earning per share in companies in above groups, in BFL and plantations companies.

    When compare with cement, hotel, and other hot stocks BFL will have higher ROE, low p/e when compare with market, great value, great demand for their products, lower debt improved cash flow in their book once they release results in the future.

    We cannot see attractive financial ratios in cement and hotel stocks. However, hotel stocks with weak balance sheets are trading even above Rs.80/-.

    Finally so far #BFL broke two important barriers.

    Because of sister affects both #GRAN and TAFL can have some movements. Even Rohit see some movements in stocks such as DIAL, NHL, TAFL and GRAN
  • [Updated] Time for Fundamental... reply from MarketWatch, 20 Apr 10
  • I always said that nobody cannot predict 100% correctly.

    We can see some fundamentals, future developments, pattern, themes, ideas, trend and action for some stocks time to time. We cannot identify bullish stock by looking at charts.

    We have to follow considerable period and spend time. In the mean times, we have to do some study as well because we do not get inside information, what sophisticated investors institutions and traders are doing etc.

    Charts are good for identifying current trend. Other than that, it is not that useful. Chartist cannot predict next great depression, market crash, market correction and next strong bull trend,

    We have to follow considerable period and spend time. In the mean times, we have to do some study as well because we do not get inside information, what sophisticated investors institutions and traders are doing etc.

    Every stock has different type of pattern. Some have very strong pattern. For example in the past #, KVAL appreciated similar to #BFL. It started from Rs.12, then it broker Rs.20, Rs.30, Rs.40 and Rs.50 barriers gradually. Finally it went up to Rs.78/-

    I thought when commodity market crash it will come down below .Rs.50/-. However, both #WATA #KVAL outperformed the market. Some said plantations stocks are not good for long-term investment. Even blue chips such as #JKH and #HHL came down to below Rs.60/-

    Once they release results, we should study about their ROE, CASH FLOW, and DEBT LEVEL ETC. Every time we see strong results, we have to upgrade their stock price now.

    One thing I want to tell you we must not chase any stock. There are pullbacks in strong market. Did you notice LFIN went from Rs. 40 to above Rs.50. Then it came back to Rs.43 level. Then there were some volatility. Finally broke and went above Rs.60 and stagnated for sometimes. Now it is trading around Rs.83/-

    #COMB, #SAMP, #JKH, #HAL,# HAYC, #HNB, #HASU, #COCO and #SPEN also had pattern and there were so many pull backs. Finally, all of above stocks broke some important barriers.

    It is better to study any stock before we decide to buy any stock. It is not too late to buy. Similarly it is not to high to buy and it is not too low to sell depend on the situation.
    But we must not buy wrong stock too late. Sell right stock too early.

    For example now we must study whether #HAYC is going to go to Rs.300/-. Now it is better than #JKH. For this, we should follow this stock. Without studying, we should not buy any stock suddenly.

    Both Hayles group and Richard Group should benefit from current low interest rate environment and positive business in plantations.

    When compare with cement, hotel and other overvalued and hot stocks we can see at least positive earning per share in companies in above groups, in BFL and plantations companies.

    When compare with cement, hotel, and other hot stocks BFL will have higher ROE, low p/e when compare with market, great value, great demand for their products, lower debt improved cash flow in their book once they release results in the future.

    We cannot see attractive financial ratios in cement and hotel stocks. However, hotel stocks with weak balance sheets are trading even above Rs.80/-.

    Finally so far #BFL broke two important barriers.

    Because of sister affects both #GRAN and TAFL can have some movements. Even Rohit see some movements in stocks such as DIAL, NHL, TAFL and GRAN
  • [Updated] TWO STOCKS TO WATCH ... reply from MarketWatch, 20 Apr 10
  • When compare with market P/E #BFL is attractive. Their P/E is around 9.It has strong pattern. It has strong demand from local market, tourist market and export market. It is one of the extremely bullish stocks in the CSE

    We have to watch their next barriers now.

    It looks like some momentum traders have entered to the BFL.

    We can get some idea about their ROE; cash flow etc once they announce their results

    Globally strong poultry companies will outperform market in 2010 and 2011. BFL is number one Agri-Business food Farm Company in Sri-Lanka.

    Policy makers also have identified value of Agri-Business sector. We can see biggest development in this sector during next five years. I think they will give more and more facility for those who export their products and create more job opportunities in the future.

    Recent policy decisions on maize and revise of maximum price also will benefit BFL in the future. As a current leader, BFL has long journey in the Agri-Business sector
  • [Updated] What should be our s... reply from MarketWatch, 17 Apr 10
  • I will give range bound for some stocks including #BFL and #BALA during next three months after studying pattern, action and general market conditions etc.

    Once company releases their results, we will have to upgrade some stocks due to their higher earnings and higher ROE and have to give new range bound.

    We can see better than expected, above average results from some companies and these stocks will become more undervalued.

    As I said, some stocks slowly, gradually will appreciate. We will see tortoise pattern in those stocks.

    Some stocks will have less than 5% correction and some stocks will go side ways
    Some stocks will have over 20% correction, and some stocks will have less than 10% correction and some bullish stocks will go up continuously during next 11 months.

    This is a time identify undervalued bullish stocks with great potential.

    In some undervalued stocks, I cannot see range bound and those stocks will go up further. Once they appreciate and become over priced we can see some volatility and then we will have range bound for those stocks.

    Still I am trying to identify pattern and action for plantation companies. Next eight weeks is very crucial for plantations companies.
  • [Updated] What should be our s... reply from MarketWatch, 17 Apr 10
  • When compare with other global poultry stocks #BFL should trade above Rs.100/- by now. It is trading massive discount to the market and when compare with CSE market P/E ratio It should trader around Rs.95/- by now.

    However, we have to be realistic in stocks.

    As I said earlier my short-term upper range in around Rs.63/-. To reach that level it should break next the most important barriers: That is Rs.47.75 and Rs.54/. If it break Rs.63 barrier it can go up further. However breaking of long term barriers depend on following:

    Maintaining higher ROE continuously
    Maintaining higher earnings continuously
    Reducing debt level further
    Expanding their markets including export market, new products etc
    Finally new developments.

    In the past its competitors #GRAN traded around Rs.230/- and their sister company around TAFL Rs.54/-. GRAN was leader at that time. Now #BFL is the leader and they are going to be future leader too. More than that they have export market now.

    Once they release their annual results, we will be able to get clear idea about their ROE, their plans as well. Whenever they increase their earning per share, ROE and see new developments, we will have to rerate their stock price. Similarly, if we are not satisfied with their future performance we will have to downgrade.

    Finally, policy makers also have identified value in Agri-Businee sector. I think we will see capable and efficient minister in agri-business sector in the coming cabinet.

    However, we have to be very careful in some actions. Once bad players enter into some stocks we will see strong volatility and it will affect for the stock price even with strong fundamentals.

    In short, in bull markets stocks will go up. In bear markets stock will go down,

    Now I am trying to establish uptrend for plantations stocks. Next eight weeks is crucial for plantations stocks. They are trying to build base now. I will post range bound for plantations stocks later

    On currency ratio and debt level, #BALA is attractive. Even #KGAL is attractive due to their attractive current ratio. Both have tea and rubber. Prices are good when compare with corresponding last year.

    BFL has concentrated on their core business just like #NEST and #SOY very well.

    As expected #, NEST broke their Rs.500/- barrier. Rs. 515 is all time high. Their all time low is Rs.5.50/-

    I think we should take profit when #NEST trade above Rs.550/-. In a market correction during next 12 months it can come down to below Rs.500/-. Long-term investors should buy on market weakness and when they see value. Otherwise, they should go for some other attractive hidden gems in the market during next 12 months.

    Investors should sell following stocks in rallies. I mentioned these stocks in the past when they are attractive,

    #HASU trading around Rs.61 now

    #LFIN trading around Rs.84now
    #CFIN
    #CHMX
    #DIPD

    In rallies hotel, cement and other extremely overvalued stocks and those who try to promote some stocks as next #JKH also should sell during next 10 months.

    As I said earlier, strong uptrend will not end easily. There will be two or more shakeouts in the market. Once speculators and momentum traders disappear form the markets some hot stocks, over valued stocks will come down just like rock.
  • [Updated] What should be our s... reply from MarketWatch, 16 Apr 10
  • This what I said in December 2009

    If you can see rubber prices are going to go up after May 2010 then current #KGAL price is attractive.

    January 9th I said

    Some of the stocks to watch during next two months are:

    #DCOK
    #CFIN
    #LFIN
    #BFL
    #BALA
    #MAL
    #KGAL
    #NDB
    #DFCC

    8th January


    This is what pissa6666 said

    Reply from pissa6666, 15 days ago for my another question.

    Friends, thanks for very healthy discussion based on your research findings.

    Basically, my intention of suggesting #BALA as an investment stock were:

    1. Sound financials
    2. Less gearing
    3. Good short term investment / deposits which cushions short term crises
    4. Prudent management
    5. Investment / strategy to plough back for sustainable production capacity
    6. Conservative dividend payment policy which ensures some return to the shareholder while ploughing back the profits

    Traders will attach excessive importance on quarterly profits. For them, now to exit and re-enter after price effect based on 31 Dec.09 financials make perfect sense.

    If we look at investment portfolio, given that the risks identified by you both are digestible(based on individual risk appetite), I would say #BALA is one of the best stocks for medium to long term value creation.

    If tea industry should sink, #BALA will be among the last companies to sink, provided Govt. completely turns a blind eye.

    What I feel is, we should not attach undue importance to a one off provision figure, created by the back dated wage agreement.

    This is what I said.

    Currently there is demand for #BFL in the Agri-business sector and #KGAL and #BALA in the plantation sector now


    I will post my updated stocks to watch during next 12 weeks including range bound for some stocks.

    We will have to rerate some stocks due to higher ROE, higher earning per share, lower debt level, strong demand for their products and attractive valuations during next 12 weeks. We will have to downgrade some over valued stocks and we can talk some stocks to sell once they become overpriced in the future.

    Some of my recent posting:

    Yes. It is interesting.

    Main Interesting thing for me is;

    State funds are going to invest in shares aggressively. It is a major move in capital market in Sri-Lanka. It will improve liquidity further.

    I like to see what types of stocks they are going to invest in this time?

    Ceybank unit trust (Government own Bank of Ceylon as one of the shareholders) so far have given attractive returns to unit holders. Their fund management is better than private sector in selecting some stocks. Even recently through their funds have bought valuable undervalued stocks in small and mid caps.

    NSB also has good strategy in buying and selling shares.

    Sri-Lanka Insurance also has some attractive stocks in their portfolios.

    With recent policy decision retirement funds such as EPF, ETF can make big impact in the market.

    Globally we can expect following during next 10 years;

    Sector and subgroup oriented bull markets
    Sideway markets
    Volatility
    Strong bull markets or Major up trends
    Up and down markets periodically
    Bear Markets
    Panic situation and market crash

    Those new to the markets:

    I said in the current market those who have experience and knowledge will have edge over others.

    Some stocks will have aggressive buying and selling time to time
    We can not win all the times
    Markets will not go up down continuously
    There are different players in the market
    Market is 100% not efficient.
    Stock and commodity will not go to the zero except bankrupts one.
    Some companies will disappear from the markets time to come.
    Sometimes market will not listen to fundamentals and technicals
    Technical analysts will tell you support levels. Once they break they are telling now we should take them as resistance levels. They are not also sure about the market trend. So they have introduced stop losses.

    In the short term market is like weighing machine
    Identifying General market conditions are better than other indicators
    In panic situations players will sell some attractive value stocks as well.

    Best investment strategy:

    Always buy (invest) in undervalued stocks with great potential
    Have a time horizon.
    Try to identify some extremely bullish stocks with more than 10 baggers characteristics
    We can not select all wining stocks. Once we find one attractive stock even we can cover losses of other stocks. We get these types of stocks once in life time.
    Learn to identify stocks similar to #Wata, #Soy, #KVAL and #Nest in advance. Those types of stocks are good for any type of market situation.

    We must be prepared to buy following stocks aggressively if prices come down during next 11 months? I don’t think it will come down to those levels.

    #JKH below Rs.100/
    #SPEN below Rs.300/
    #SAMP below Rs.150
    #HNB below Rs.100
    #COMB below Rs.100
    #coco below Rs.20
    #HASU below Rs.30/-
    #haly below Rs.125/-
    #RICH below Rs.40/-
    #Dfcc below Rs.80/-
    #NDB below Rs.80/-
    #HHL BELOW Rs 80-
    #LCEY below Rs.35/-

    Remember even if market come down it will create some attractive opportunities for new players and those who missed some attractive stocks.
  • [Updated] TWO STOCKS TO WATCH ... reply from MarketWatch, 14 Apr 10
  • Massively undervalued Bairah Farms #BFL will have more and more demand for their products from tourist market in the future in addition to local and export market.

    http://www.colombopage.com/archive_10/Apr1271227034CH.php

    Sri Lanka hotels prepare for tourist arrivals
    Apr 14, Colombo: With the end of the three-decades long war in last May Sri Lanka is seeing its tourism industry flourishing once again.
    The tourist arrivals have been steadily increasing since the end of the war and recent data from the Tourist Board has shown that Sri Lanka's tourist arrivals jumped by 50.3 percent in the first quarter of 2010 compared to a year earlier.
    In March tourist arrivals reached 52,352, up by 53.7 percent from a 34,065 a year earlier.
    The hotels in the country are in a race with time to provide more accommodation and facilities to the anticipated influx of tourists to the country.
    Leading hotels in the country are adding more rooms while refurbishing the old ones and struggling to find accommodation for the tourists who are mostly from Britain, Germany, France, India, Japan, and Mid-East.
    Many hotels are investing in new furniture, bars, restaurants, swimming pools and extensions to cater to the tourists, hotel owners say.
    The hotel and travel index on the Colombo Stock Exchange has almost tripled since the war's end and the total number of hotel rooms is expected to grow from about 15,000 to 22,000.
    The Tourism Board says it is hoping to attract 2.5 million visitors by 2016 and to earn 2 billion-dollar annual income from tourism by 2016.

    Now investors and traders should rotate overvalued stocks in hotel and travel sector to undervalued counters with great prospect.

    Market P/E around 19

    P/E ratio of #BFL: Less than 10 (Around 8)

    Demand for their products now and future: Very strong

    Can expect higher ROE in the future.

    Debt level can go down further

    Can expect strong cash flow in the future

    We also can expect new developments. Because management have innovative ideas.

    It is an A grade Farm company in Asia.
  • [Updated] BFL - GRAN/TAFL reply from MarketWatch, 14 Apr 10
  • As I said earlier No company is 100% risk free.

    Even banks, financial and insurance companies, commodities companies, production companies all are vulnerable now.

    Globally even top global banks, property companies, finance and other companies in other sectors became bankrupt in the recent past. Many lost their retirements money as well.

    Now some global Air lines, car companies, banks, property and production companies, commoditise companies are struggling. Thanks to financial packages they survived this time.

    On the other hand food oriented companies are doing well in bad and good times.

    Globally A grade poultry companies will outperform broad m market in 2010 and 2011.

    Once become overvalued traders should sell their stocks.

    #BFL is A grade poultry company in Asia.
  • [Updated] #AGAL reply from MarketWatch, 13 Apr 10
  • On Valuation, low debt level, new developments, strong demand for their products and strong future cash flow both #BALA and #BFL have more upside potential than other stocks in the CSE.

    #BFL has storng pattern as well.
  • [Updated] #AGAL reply from pissa6666, 13 Apr 10
  • Hi MW, I fully agree with your comments. No doubt #BFL and #BALA are great stocks. But my post on #AGAL was to bring the actual potential of this stock to the fore. This is worth keeping in the investment portfolio along with above stocks.

    Normally, many investors go by the last quarter financials. Majority of the investors decide to invest based on borrowed ideas. When we identify the potential of a share while the market is not interested in it due to the last quarter financial or last year financial, we have a good buying opportunity.When we have a basket of fundamentally sound shares, and have the patience to wait for time ripe for harvest, consistency in return can be maintained.

    Watch out for #ACME, #LALU and #MGT. These will break barriers in the near future.#ACME and #LALU have already advanced from Rs. 17 and Rs.29 respectively. Their financials are pretty decent and potential is high.
  • [Updated] #AGAL reply from MarketWatch, 13 Apr 10
  • Hi Pissa6666

    Now we must try to find new hidden gems like #BFL during next 12 months.

    Just like BFL, I found strong pattern in one of your favorite stocks.

    Really some of your posting are great. It is good you are following tortoise strategy. .

    Definitively tortoise will win at the end of this stock game.

    Your #LFIN can go up further. I think it is wise to make some profits once it breaks above Rs.90 and Rs.100/-

    Out of all stocks, I think both #BALA and #BFL have greatest value.
  • [Updated] BFL - GRAN/TAFL reply from vkulunu, 13 Apr 10
  • #BFL may have some specific risks specially a threat like bird flu.
    Isn't it risker to have it long termly?
  • [Updated] BFL, KOTA MASK reply from MarketWatch, 13 Apr 10
  • Unlike other stocks #BFL is moving up slowly and systematically like a tortoise forming strong pattern, theme, trend etc.

    Still we haven’ seen their rapid rise in their stock price.

    I wish you a happy new year for everybody! Have a great time.
  • [Updated] BFL, KOTA MASK reply from MarketWatch, 13 Apr 10
  • When we compare with, hotel stocks, diversified stocks, cement stock, hot stocks and other overpriced stocks in the CSE, #BFL has great value.

    It is an A grade poultry stock in Asia.

    Even it is better than some other undervalued stocks available in the CSE stocks including plantations stocks

    We have to monitor their new developments, lower debt, business and market expansion, and higher ROE during next five years

    Even policy makers are taking positive actions one by one to develop Agri-Food sector now. They have identified potential in this sector very well.

    We will see new developments in Maize products as well in the future.
    Market P/E around 19.

    Plantation sector P/E: around 13

    P/E of #BFL: Less than 10. Around 8

    We can expect attractive ROE from financial year ending 31/03 /10, in addition to good cash flow and further reduction in debt.

    They already declared interim dividend. They should not declare higher final dividend.

    Instead, they should invest or should expand business further to increase shareholder value in the future.

    We will have to revalue this stock every time they make above average profits, higher ROE in the future

    Their farmland value also should revalue now. There is a great demand for land in East Coast area in Sri-Lanka and their Trincomale land too will have to revalue now.
  • [Updated] BFL, KOTA MASK reply from MarketWatch, 12 Apr 10
  • #BFL is moving up because it is one of the bullish stocks in the CSE.

    When compare with other stocks in the CSE, #BFL is undervalued.

    It has a pattern.
  • [Updated] #SUN reply from MarketWatch, 12 Apr 10
  • Some are trying to make this as another hot stock. It is true they will have some improved results in the current quarter. We can see volatility in their income as well in the future.

    I am uncomfortable with their abnormal price movements in the recent past. Before the splits, it went above Rs.700/ in small quantity. We should avoid with abnormal price movements. We also should know about pattern, theme, idea, trend, general market condition for stocks in addition to fundamentals. Tortoise can identify pattern in advance


    What we should do is we should follow stocks for a considerable period to take some type of decisions.

    There should be some consistency in revenue. We cannot take decision by looking at one quarterly result. Companies with less debt and the best.

    Remember do not over pay for any stock.

    In the current market we there are plenty of momentum traders, speculators, sophisticated investors and traders in addition to tortoise investors and traders. At the end in the long run tortoise will win the game

    Once speculators and momentum traders , smart money and sophisticated investors and traders disappears from some hot stocks, speculative stocks and overpriced stocks they will come down just like pack of cards.

    When compare with plantations stocks, hotel stocks, diversified stocks, cement stocks #BFL has great value.

    It is a A grade poultry stocks in Asia.

    We have to monitor their new developments, lower debt, business and market expansion, and higher ROE during next five years.
  • [Updated] any improvement on B... reply from MarketWatch, 8 Apr 10
  • I am very bullish on #BFL than before due to some reasons. For me below Rs.60/- is very attractive.

    Pl look for my earlier answer for #LCEY.

    There should be reason to buy and sell stocks. Different traders, investors will look at stocks different way.

    What do you look in stocks? What is your time horizon? Can you read the market correctly?


    When compare with other over valued stocks #BFL is undervalued

    We have to look at #BFL completely different from the past due to some reasons
    It has become leader in the sub group. They have more favorable positive factors than negative factors. They are reducing their debt as well. Their cash flow is improving.
    Demand for their products is very strong in tourist market, local market and export market.

    Current demand has made shortage in poultry products in many South Asian countries.
    Countries with shortage want to import poultry products other than India to prevent form diseases. Sri-Lanka has that opportunity and Bairaha already entered their export market recently.
    In the past TAFL has traded above Rs50/- GRAN has traded above Rs.200/-
    Market P/E is over 18. #BFL is trading below the P/E ratio of 8 on estimated earning per share. Their nine months earning per share is around 3.70.

    I am expecting strong cash flow, low debt and improved results from Bairaha Farms.
    I also expect attractive ROE in the current financial year.

    Definitely, they will have strong demand for their products from local market, export market and tourist market in the future. What about other development activities. They will have demand from those areas as well.

    Some new developments will turn BFL into extremely bullish stock in the future.
    It is not a crowded stock. It is appreciating slowly, systematically and gradually. Some smart money is flowing into this stock now.
    If you compare with some hotel, cement and other hot stocks Bairaha should trade above Rs.100 by now. If you calculate it with current market P/E #BFL should trade above Rs.90/-

    In addition, their fixed assets such as land including their land in Trincomale should revalue now.

    Can you find attractive undervalued stock with following characteristics in the future?

    Higher return on equity (ROE), strong balance sheet, low debt. Strong demand for their products, favorable market conditions and improved earnings
  • [Updated] any improvement on B... reply from sajcolombo, 8 Apr 10
  • MW,

    Do you think #BFL and #LCEY are still worth to accumelate?

    Current market prices are #BFL -38 and #LCEY -68.50.

    Pls advise.........
  • [Updated] any improvement on B... reply from MarketWatch, 8 Apr 10
  • Last year I mentioned stocks such as #HASU, #CHMX, #NTB, #MBSL and #BFL

    Out of all I am more bullish on #BFL now

    I think even #BFL will break current price of #HASU. That is Rs.61/-.

    After Rs.47.75, Rs.54/-barriers, their short term third barrier is Rs.61/-
  • [Updated] any improvement on B... reply from MarketWatch, 7 Apr 10
  • AS I said earlier, Pl look for action, pattern, movements, themes, future fundamentals, breaking some important barriers and new developments etc.

    Future earnings are more important than past earnings. Future developments are more important.

    #BFL is at the early stage of new beginning.

    However if we see long term fundamentals are going to become weak and if we cannot see future developments, market expansion, product expansion etc, we should sell irrespective of hidden gems, blue chips etc. We should replace with some other attractive stocks.

    BFL is one of the most attractive undervalued stocks available in the CSE. It has mission and vision now.

    They have strong demand for their products in the following market

    Local Market
    Tourist Market
    Export Market

    Their next most important barriers are Rs.47.75 and Rs.54/-

    Medium and long-term barrier is much higher. It is Rs.230/-

    It is not easy task to break Rs.230/-. Management will have to take more and more innovative actions while maintaining higher ROE, reducing their debt further and expanding markets further etc. If we can see some new developments and by products with strong demand we will have to revise rating for BFL and we can expect one of the highest stock prices for #BFL in the CSE

    Remember greatest return will come from small and mid company with innovative ideas and new developments.

    Keep on eye on some new developments and Pl post it. Our members will benefit lot.

    This is the time to invest and trade in undervalued stocks with great growth potential.

    We should try to give fair price for all attractive undervalued stocks with good future fundamentals during next five years. We should avoid all type of hot stocks in the future
  • [Updated] BFL - GRAN/TAFL reply from MarketWatch, 7 Apr 10
  • #BFL is not a crowded stock. It is a hidden gem.

    It will become real gem if they can maintain higher attractive ROE and if we see some new developments during next 12 months and next five years.

    Their next most important barriers are: Rs.47.75 and Rs.54/-

    Long term barrier is much higher.
  • [Updated] Invest for future reply from MarketWatch, 5 Apr 10
  • Some of the undervalued companies with less debt, lower P/E and strong demand for their products in the CSE are:

    #BFL
    #BALA
  • [Updated] Invest for future reply from MarketWatch, 5 Apr 10
  • Some of the companies with less debt, lower P/E and strong demand for their products in the CSE are:

    #BALA
    #BFL
  • [Updated] BFL reply from MarketWatch, 5 Apr 10
  • More about websites related to #BFL

    BAIRHA Launched new web

    http://bairahalk.com/

    Farms PLC. is the pioneer quality chicken producer in Sri Lanka. Bairaha Farms PLC. and its subsidiary companies are engaged in integrated poultry production including in the processing of chicken and value added processing of meat and production of similar day-old-chicks

    Bairaha Farms PLC. is the pioneer quality chicken producer in Sri Lanka. Bairaha Farms PLC. and its subsidiary companies are engaged in integrated poultry production including in the processing of chicken and value added processing of meat and production of similar day-old-chicks

    http://bairahalk.com/certifications.php

    Recent awards

    Certifications

    HACCP

    HACCP-1

    Annual Report Award 2009

    ISO 22000

    ISO 22000-1

    http://www.google.com/finance?q=COL:BFL

    Left side you can find how global poultry food companies are doing at the moment and their extremely bullish trend. Two USA based poultry companies have become top two stock picks among ten food related companies in the world.
  • [Updated] BFL reply from MarketWatch, 4 Apr 10
  • First of I want to tell you that I do not have any insider information like others. I like themes, value, fundamentals, patterns, trend, movements, breaking some important records, higher ROE in the future and new developments in stocks.

    There are so many sources. We have to spend some times on goggle to find some important information on some sectors, groups and stocks as well.

    I found following information on the web by chance. By experience, we can get idea about how reliable website is.

    In 2007, one country decided to import poultry products from other than India and they decided Sri-Lanka as an ideal country to import due to flexible air transportation. They were importing boiler chicks from Australia. After three years, they are importing world most efficient broiler chicks from Bairaha farms #BFL now

    They are always having boiler chicks shortage and poultry shortage in that country and currently their chick price has doubled due to shortage.

    I think Bairaha Farms will have to expand their business faster than before to supply:Cobb boiler chicks: the world’s most efficient broilers not only to the local market but also to the export market now due to strong demand.


    http://www.poultryinternational-digital.com/poultryinternational/200601/?pg=6

    http://www.asian-agribiz.com/display.aspx?PageID=0&MemberID=0&screenheight=768&screenwidth=1024#
    Local newspapers.
    I can remember I found some information about joint venture from a website of Netherlands Embassy.


    Fortune GP Farm ventures into exports

    [4 February 2010] Sri Lanka's Fortune G-P Farms, an associate company of Bairaha Farms PLC, has ventured into the export market, with the export of two consignments of Parent Breeder Chicks to Nepal. The consignments consisted of 6,000 DOC. Until recently, 85% of Sri Lanka's annual requirement was imported, but now Fortune G-P Farms, has the capacity to supply nearly 50% of the local requirement. Bairaha is a vertically integrated poultry producer, engaged in all the aspects of breeding, production and processing with the exception of feed milling.
    ________________________________________




    Indian corn production increases


    [1 April 2010] India's corn production in 2010 is expected to surpass last year's output of 19.73 million tonnes due to favourable weather conditions over the past few months and increased use of single cross hybrids, said Sain Dass, Project Director of the Directorate of Maize Research. He said the increased production is a result of a good harvest of the rabi or winter crop, which contributed about 16% to the country's total corn production last year. Anticipation of increased supplies has made the corn price drop by INR 1000/quintal(USD 21) in recent days. According to Mr Dass, India exported three million tonnes of corn and 12,000 tonnes of corn seed last year.
    ________________________________________

    Record soybean crop in South America

    [24 March 2010] South American soybean producers are expecting to harvest a record crop this year and this has started to impact global soybean prices, said analysts. Soybean production in Brazil is forecast to increase 18% in 2010 to 67.5 million tonnes, said the National Commmodities Supply Corp, while in Brazil Agritrend said soybean harvest in the year could be in the range of 52-55 million tonnes. In Paraguay, oilseeds production in the year is expected to double to 7.2 million tonnes including 1.5 million tonnes of soybean. Traders said the record South Amercian crop had limited the increases in soybean prices and the price would be bearish in the long term. How far the South American harvest can influence global soybean prices depends on its ability to deliver the product in a timely manner.

    Bangladesh to import DOC and eggs

    [11 February 2010] Bangladesh has insisted that it will continue to allow poultry imports to ease the shortage in the country, but will not allow imports from India because of a fresh bird flu outbreak. Despite protests from local farmers, Bangladesh approved 17 traders in December, to import day-old-chicks (DOC) and eggs worth BDT 87.2 million (USD 1.25 million), saying the import was necessary to ease the shortage and high prices. The traders earlier planned to import DOC and eggs from India. New criteria however, states that poultry imports are allowed only from countries recognised by OIE to be free from the bird flu.



    Fortune GP Farm ventures into exports
    [4 February 2010] Sri Lanka's Fortune G-P Farms, an associate company of Bairaha Farms PLC, has ventured into the export market, with the export of two consignments of Parent Breeder Chicks to Nepal. The consignments consisted of 6,000 DOC. Until recently, 85% of Sri Lanka's annual requirement was imported, but now Fortune G-P Farms, has the capacity to supply nearly 50% of the local requirement. Bairaha is a vertically integrated poultry producer, engaged in all the aspects of breeding, production and processing with the exception of feed milling.
    ________________________________________



    http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/10720/fortune-chooses-smart-for-new-gps-venture-in-sri-lanka



    Saturday, July 15, 2006
    Print This Page
    Fortune chooses Smart for new GPS venture in Sri Lanka
    THE NETHERLANDS - Fortune GP Farms, the new LKR 100 million venture recently launched by leading Sri Lankan integrators Bairaha Farms Ltd (BFL) and Midland Breeders in partnership with Hybro B.V. of the Netherlands, has selected Smart hatchery technology from Pas Reform, to establish the country's most advanced Grand Parent Broiler Breeder Farm and hatchery operations to date.


    “We selected Pas Reform's Smart incubation system primarily to improve day old chick uniformity, which is an important prerequisite to optimising the condition of the day old chicks”, says Mr. Yakooth Naleem, managing director of Fortune GP Farms.

    Pas Reform's widely acclaimed Smart incubation system has been designed specifically to meet this requirement, along with meeting the challenges presented by genetic advancement in modern breeds and the optimisation of post-hatch performance.

    Fortune GP Farms has been set up in a remote 100-acre site off Dambulla, with its state-of-the-art hatchery located in a separate, 10-acre plot. The new venture is capable of producing 70 percent of the local poultry sector's parent stock requirements, which until the launch of Fortune GP Farms have had to be imported.

    “The availability of locally hatched broiler breeder parents will produce significant savings for local poultry farmers,” explained Mr. Naleem, “as this negates the need to pay import duty, L/C charges or customs levies - and at the same time, avoids the hassles attached to clearing live cargo from customs.

    “Our chicks will also quite naturally be in much better condition when supplied,” he continued, “because they will travel much shorter, domestic distances and spend less time in transit than imported livestock.”

    Pas Reform's experienced project management team has worked in partnership with Fortune to install SmartSet™ setters, SmartHatch™ hatchers, the SmartDrive™ incubator control system and the SmartCenter™ hatchery management information system. The Dutch hatchery technology company also delivered the complete hatchery ventilation system.

    “Working with Pas Reform has been a pleasure”, concluded Mr. Naleem. “From start to finish, their project team listened carefully to our requirements to deliver the planning and installation on time and in budget.”
    NB: Fortunately, recently their former boiler chick supplier was acquired by cobb-vantress. Now BFL can supply. Cobb boiler chicks: the world’s most efficient broilers locally. This may be main reason to get export orders now.

    If you see, some of the above websites poultry sector is going to benefit lot in 2010 and 2011. There are other sources based in UK and USA as well. We can learn lot.


    According to some analysts Top two USA based poultry food companies will outperform market in 2010 and 2011. Even now, they are outperforming the broad market.
  • [Updated] BFL reply from MarketWatch, 4 Apr 10
  • According to intelligent investors #BFL has all the signs of themes, patterns, trends, fundamentals, technical, continues pivot points, breaking resistance levels etc to become on of the most bullish stocks in the CSE.

    There were two developments last month. Policy makers increased maximum price for one kg of Chicken. Second is policy makers are going to enforce maximum selling price for maize. Both steps will contribute to the profit margin of BFL.

    BFL has concentrated on their core business very well. BFL has almost everything in poultry industry except MAIZE. According to their latest annual reports, they have limited commercial operation in maize and they are hoping to get all maize requirements from their own maize project in
    the future. For this purpose, they are hoping to make use their land in Trincompale as well. Now land price have skyrocketed in East coast due to demand from hotel sector. Their land value also should revalue now.

    Globally many diversified companies have ended up with failure due to too many diversifications into businesses that they cannot understand and that they cannot manage successfully.

    I think poultry playes will have opportunity to export not only chicken, chicks but also maize as well in the future due to favorable Agri-Business policy in Sri-Lanka.

    Currently there is strong demand for both chicken and egg in Sri-: Lanka. It is same in some other countries including south Asian countries. In some south Asian countries broiler chick and chicken prices have doubled due to shortage in poultry products. Even Bangladesh wants to import chicken other than India. I think Sri-Lanka will get this opportunity as well

    I think BFL will have excellent opportunities expand their business further due to strong demand form local, tourist and export market.

    Already they declared interim dividend, they should not declare higher final dividend, and they should make use of those money to expand their business now to generate higher shareholder value for shareholder.


    Globally selected best-managed poultry food companies will outperform general market in 2010 and 2011.

    #BFL is best-managed poultry company in Sri-Lanka. It is the best-managed agri-business company in Sri-Lanka. They have concentrated on their core business very well.

    I am looking forward for their next two most important resistances (barriers). I am very bullish on #BFL now.

    I have reason for that.

    My next the most important resistance levels for #BFL are: Rs.43.75 and Rs.54/-

    Their medium term and long term resistance level is: Rs.230/-

    This mainly depends on some factors:

    Maintaining higher ROE during next five years
    Improving cash flow almost every year
    Maintaining strong balance sheet while reducing their debt further
    Other new developments (Management has some innovative ideas)
    Maintaining winning awards for their accounts from Institute of chartered accountants of Sri-Lanka

    BFL has following markets for their products:

    Local Market
    Tourist Market
    Export Market

    It has all characteristics to become number one farm, food and Agribusiness Company in Sri-Lanka. It will become one of the emerging leaders in the CSE in the future if they can make use of future opportunities in both local and global market.

    In Sri-Lanka, policy makers finally have identified value of Agri-business sector in Sri-Lanka. There will be plenty of export opportunities for this sector during next two decades. There will be strong demand for some food products not only during next five years but also during next two decades. Productive and innovative companies will bring valuable foreign exchange during next two decades.


    More about #BFL

    They have characteristics of Aggressive Growth, Growth & Income, Momentum, and Value and they will outperform broad market in 2010 and 2011

    Synergy with Cobb Vantrees Global leader in Poultry

    Have concentrated in on the core business very well

    Took timely action to dispose non-productive areas

    The management have a determination to continue to develop products and process

    Companies have an above average sales organization

    They have good cost analysis and account control-They are consistently winning awards for their accounts from Institute of chartered accountant of Sri-Lanka

    They are not issuing new shares and right issues frequently

    After turnaround, they made profits for the last two years
    So far, current year has announced above average and better than expected results.

    They can produce Cobb boiler chicks : the world’s most efficient broilers locally now and it will improve their bottom line and will enable them to maintain their strong position in the market as the preferred and leading supplier of broiler day-old chicks.

    When they start to expand their market, products BFL will become one of the most sought after stock in the CSE.
  • [Updated] GREG Rights Prices (... reply from MarketWatch, 3 Apr 10
  • What is happening in 15th of April?

    Pl let me know following so that I will give my next range bound. Any way I am studying action, movements, pattern and themes etc to get idea about Gregg during next seven weeks.

    Recently I correctly gave my lower range for GREGG: That is Rs.100/-. Last week it fell down to Rs.100/-

    I also correctly said breaking of #COMB above Rs.200/- and breaking of Rs.180 for #JKH before they passed their above resistance levels.

    My next the most important resistance levels for #BFL are: Rs.43.75 and Rs.54/-

    Their medium term and long term resistance level is: Rs.230/-

    This mainly depends on some factors:

    Maintaining higher ROE during next five years
    Improving cash flow almost every year
    Maintaining strong balance sheet while reducing their debt further
    Other new developments (Management has some innovative ideas)
    Maintaining winning awards for their accounts from Institute of chartered accountants of Sri-Lanka

    BFL has following markets for their products:

    Local Market
    Tourist Market
    Export Market

    It has all characteristics to become number one farm, food and Agribusiness Company in Sri-Lanka. It will become one of the emerging leaders in the CSE in the future if they can make use of future opportunities in both local and global market.

    In Sri-Lanka, policy makers finally have identified value of Agri-business sector in Sri-Lanka. There will be plenty of export opportunities for this sector during next two decades. There will be strong demand for some food products not only during next five years but also during next two decades. Productive and innovative companies will bring valuable foreign exchange during next two decades.


    More about #BFL

    They have characteristics of Aggressive Growth, Growth & Income, Momentum, and Value and they will outperform broad market in 2010 and 2011

    Synergy with Cobb Vantrees Global leader in Poultry

    Have concentrated in on the core business very well

    Took timely action to dispose non-productive areas

    The management have a determination to continue to develop products and process

    Companies have an above average sales organization

    They have good cost analysis and account control-They are consistently winning awards for their accounts from Institute of chartered accountant of Sri-Lanka

    They are not issuing new shares and right issues frequently

    After turnaround, they made profits for the last two years
    So far, current year has announced above average and better than expected results.

    They can produce Cobb boiler chicks : the world’s most efficient broilers locally now and it will improve their bottom line and will enable them to maintain their strong position in the market as the preferred and leading supplier of broiler day-old chicks.

    When they start to expand their market, products BFL will become one of the most sought after stock in the CSE.
  • [Updated] Good price to buy...... reply from MarketWatch, 2 Apr 10
  • Pl do not depend on tips. When members mention in this forum or anywhere first thing to look is: Attractive value, Future earnings and risks involved. No company is 100% risk free. Even banks and insurance companies could become bankrupt in the future.

    However, sometimes some tips from industrial experts will help. Have some idea about their business. Do some study? Don not follow the crowd.

    There should be reason to buy stocks and sell stocks. Did you identify some bullish stocks in the current market recently?

    At least you have selected profit-making companies with attractive value.

    Others are following all types of hot stocks, over valued counters.

    Most important factors to consider when you buy stocks:

    General market conditions now and future
    Market players (Some will pump stocks and then they will disappear)
    Future earnings are more important than past earnings
    Less debt
    Good cash flow in the future
    Raw materials cost including higher import cost.
    Strong demand for their products now and in the future
    Do not make investment by looking at one quarterly result.


    Even some brokers will tell buy this and that.

    Time to time they will promote stocks by looking at current earnings rather than looking at future earnings and future general market conditions. Once they promoted heavily stocks such as #ACAP, #VANIK, #Forbes and #, DIAL in the past without looking at future earnings.


    Best investments strategy:

    Investors should identify stocks with more than ten bagger characteristics in advance.

    We should look for fundamentally sound undervalued stocks with following characteristics:

    Ability to improve cash flow in the future
    Ability to expand their market
    Ability to introduce new product range and new products
    Company should concentrate on their core businesses very well.
    Companies with less debt and ability to reduce their debt further.
    Strong demand for their products in the future.
    Companies with new developments
    Management should have innovative ideas
    Stocks should not be too crowded
    Have tortoise strategy in the second half of the year. Tortoise will outperform hares in the rest of the year and next year.

    Learn to compete with these bad players. We should learn to give fair price for quality stocks during next five years.

    Avoid hot stocks. Avoid massively overvalued stocks with extended P/E ratios.

    Remember we do not want to win all the times. If we can win one big win from a great winning stock, we can beat the market.

    Everybody make mistakes even top investors and traders.

    In bull markets stock will go up. In Bear markets stock will go down.

    Finally, globally selected best-managed poultry food companies will outperform general market in 2010 and 2011.

    #BFL is best-managed poultry company in Sri-Lanka. It is the best-managed agri-business company in Sri-Lanka. They have concentrated on their core business very well.

    I am looking forward for their next two most important resistances (barriers). I am very bullish on #BFL now.

    I have reason for that. Similarly, some other players will bullish on their stocks

    Best of luck for your stocks hunting!
  • [Updated] #NTB is a very good ... reply from MarketWatch, 27 Mar 10
  • Hi pissaa6666

    I know there is a long-term value in this stock. However, we should not chase like #KHL.

    Recently some said some hotel stocks would double soon. Instead, they came down. So some traders, investor had opportunities to buy stocks at lower price. I said in this forum that #KHL will come below Rs.19/-. #KHL below Rs.15 IS attractive.

    We should buy this on market weakness during next 11 months and we should keep under our radar now. Once we see strong signal, action, trend, movements etc we should buy.

    Rest of the year we should concentrate on some bullish socks now.

    Some are underestimating #BALA without knowing value.

    I can remember some of your answers on #BFL, # MAL, #BALA etc. You may be right on #NTB.
  • [Updated] What about #DFCC? reply from MarketWatch, 27 Mar 10
  • Hi pissaa6666

    I know there is a long-term value in this stock. However, we should not chase like #KHL.

    Recently some said some hotel stocks would double soon. Instead, they came down. So some traders, investor had opportunities to buy stocks at lower price. I said in this forum that #KHL will come below Rs.19/-. #KHL below Rs.15 IS attractive.

    We should buy this on market weakness during next 11 months and we should keep under our radar now. Once we see strong signal, action, trend, movements etc we should buy.

    Rest of the year we should concentrate on some bullish socks now.

    Some are underestimating #BALA without knowing value.

    I can remember some of your answers on #BFL, # MAL, #BALA etc. You may be right on #NTB.
  • [Updated] Two attractive stock... reply from MarketWatch, 26 Mar 10
  • Intelligent investors, traders will never make decision by looking at one quarterly result.

    In some occasions, some companies will make huge profit in one quarter from selling assets or due to some abnormal transactions. So all short-term traders, speculators will become active and will chase the stock aggressively.

    These companies cannot make profit form their core business and in the following quarters, they will be able to see their true colour. By that time, it is too late. Stock prices will tumble when they see declining earning in the following quarters continuously.

    #BALA made loss due to wage adjustments in the last quarter. It is nothing to do with their core business. They have demand for their products such as tea and rubber.

    Even during bad period, they performed better than other plantations companies did.

    Why did Raj Rajarantam choose stocks such as #BALA, #JKH CIC, #HNB, TWOD, NDB, DFCC etc? Then he was about to buy #BFL as well.

    As a hedge fund manger, he identified values in those stocks time to time.
    When interest rates go up possibly during next year companies including plantations companies with mountain of debt will hit hard. Companies with less debt such as #BALA will not hit hard. By that time, #BALA will be able to reduce their debt further due to increased profits and cash flow.

    Now some say #Wata is number one plantation company in Sri-Lanka.
    When we compare with current asset and debt levels among plantation companies #BALA is number one plantations company in Sri-Lanka?

    Now I like to ask simple question/

    Who will become bankrupt first? Companies with mountain of debt or companies with less debt?

    Investors should learn to invest and trade in:
    Companies with less debt
    Companies with positive cash flow in the future
    Companies with future attractive earnings
    Over leverage in debt is not a good thing,
    Future earnings are more important than past earnings.

    Both #BALA and #BFL are strong competitors in their sub groups due to less debt in their book. They have a market share and they have ability to expand further.
  • [Updated] What are good picks? reply from MarketWatch, 26 Mar 10
  • More about demand and supply theory:

    When there is demand for tea, rubber, chicken and egg their prices will go up. Due to strong demand, there will be shortage in products as well.

    As results of this, companies in these subgroups will benefit most.

    Currently there is a shortage in global tea inventory.

    In Many countries, including Sri-Lanka there is a shortage for poultry products due to different reasons and strong demand.

    Some global poultry food companies will outperform broad market in 2010 and 2011.

    When there is higher demand for poultry products, in addition shortage #BFL will make more and more profits and growth. #BFL has to supply poultry products not only to the local consumers, tourist sector but also to the export market now.
  • [Updated] What are good picks? reply from MarketWatch, 26 Mar 10
  • Eg for undervalued stock in the current market:

    When #BFL was trading around Rs.20/- some asked question whether it is good to buy at that level.

    I always said if you buy any stock to do some study. To learn why stock is going up and down

    In case of #BFL, they have lowest debt among their competitors and they are the leader in their sub group now. Recently they were able to expand their market to export market as well.

    For me #BFL is the number one Food Farm Company in Sri-Lanka.

    However, Pl don’t buy any stock just because members including me when they mention in this forum. We have to learn about market conditions, stock trend etc.

    More about #BFL

    They have characteristics of Aggressive Growth, Growth & Income, Momentum, and Value and they will outperform broad market in 2010 and 2011

    Synergy with Cobb Vantrees Global leader in Poultry

    Have concentrated in on the core business very well

    Took timely action to dispose non-productive areas

    The management have a determination to continue to develop products and process

    Companies have an above average sales organization

    They have good cost analysis and account control-They are consistently winning awards for their accounts from Institute of chartered accountant of Sri-Lanka

    They are not issuing new shares and right issues frequently

    After turnaround, they made profits for the last two years
    So far, current year has announced above average and better than expected results.

    They can produce Cobb boiler chicks : the world’s most efficient broilers locally now and it will improve their bottom line and will enable them to maintain their strong position in the market as the preferred and leading supplier of broiler day-old chicks.

    When they start to expand their market, products BFL will become one of the most sought after stock in the CSE.

    I think in the current financial year they are in a position to increase earnings, , growth and Cash position in addition to attractive ROE and good financial ratios. It will become more undervalued.

    They have limited commercial operation in maize and they are hoping to
    Commence full-scale maize production in the medium term in their land including company land in Trincomale District according to their latest annual report.

    They have limited commercial operation in maize and they are hoping to
    commence full-scale maize production in the medium term in their land including company land in Trincomale District according to their latest annual report.

    Already they commenced their export and sometimes they will have export orders from Bangladesh as well due to decision to import chicken product from bird flue free country.

    They will have to supply chicken products not only to the local market but also to local and foreign tourist market and export market now. Currently more than 500 local tourists visit daily to Jaffna. What about other cities such as Trincomale, Manner and other north and east cities. They will have to supply chi ken products to north and east as well. This is the reason for slight shortage in chicken and egg in Sri-Lank. There is more demand than supply now. Eventually prices will go up.

    Once you buy any stock, you must monitor their new developments, future prospects, whether fundamentals are going to become strong and weak. Most important thing is we should have buying and selling strategy. and time horizon depend on the market situation.


    #BFL will benefit from increased control price of one kilo of chicken and action is to be taken to stabilize feed cost through the introduction of a maximum retail price for maize.

    http://www.dailynews.lk/2010/03/18/news33.asp

    More Lankans consuming chicken, egg

    Action is to be taken to stabilize feed cost through the introduction of a maximum retail price for maize.

    The current retail price of one kilo of chicken has increased to Rs 350 from Rs 320
    Sri Lanka has seen a rising trend in chicken and egg consumption during the past few years.

    The end of the war has escalated the demand for poultry products.
    Last year has seen an increase in consumption in the North and East.

    The improved tourist activity has also contributed to this demand.

    However, this has led to a shortage in supply.

    The present requirement of poultry is 11,000 metric tons per month with the present supply being 8,250 metric tons; 75 percent of the requirement.

    I think these positive measures will create more jobs, more foreign exchange and will be able to supply chicken and eggs to the tourist market and local consumers in the future.

    We must not forget year of 2011 is year of visit Sri-Lanka. After that, they are expecting more than 2.5 million tourists. Even now, hotels have fully booked for the coming months.

    Therefore, there should be further increase in control price of chicken prices to avoid higher prices of more than Rs.500 per kilogram in the open market in the future due to increased demand from tourist market in the future.

    It is same in other part of the world including South Asian countries. Chicken prices have increased dramatically in those countries due to shortage. As a bird flue free country, it has potential to reach their export market in the future.

    Already policy makers have taken positive action to grow all maize requirements locally. I think some companies will have opportunity to export excess maize as well.

    I think policy makers should to give more support to poultry sector. Poor people cannot eat good variety of fish without paying over Rs.1000/- per kg of fish, other variety of fish available from Rs.450 to Rs.1000/-

    With all this feed cost poultry farmers are supplying chicken below Rs.500/-per kg. Fish has no feed cost. They are not affecting from price control

    As there are more demand for chicken and egg now it is better to increase control price around Rs.450/-. Other wise chicken price in the open market will go above Rs.500. in the coming months and coming years due to demand from tourist sector, north, and east.

    There are other developments as well. So more people will eat more and more chickens and egg in the future. Development in one sector will lead to development in other sectors as well. Not only poultry farmers but also maize farmers will benefit. There will be job opportunities in addition to foreign exchange. Some companies will export maize also in the future.

    Policy makers already have taken some long-term action to develop agri-business sector.
    ‘
    Now one by one we can see some positive news in this sector.

    They also should take more positive action to develop poultry sector in Sri-Lanka, as there are many opportunities in this sector now
  • [Updated] #BALA reply from MarketWatch, 25 Mar 10
  • Still I am bullish on #BALA and selected stocks.

    Members here talked about plantations during last year. #BALA was trading around Rs.20/-. Still members who bought around that level making profits now.

    We cannot make decisions by looking at one quarterly result. BALA has lowest debt among plantations companies in Sri-Lanka in addition to attractive current ratio.

    Can you find Plantation Company with less debt similar to #BALA? I do not think so

    There should be reason to buy stocks and sell stocks and we should have time horizon as well. Almost all plantains companies will maker attractive profits in the current quarter.


    Remember I always said not to follow the crowd. Do not depend on tips. Do study before buying any stock including stocks mention in this forum.

    I can remember one member asked whether it is OK TO buy #BFL when it was trading below Rs.20 and #BALA around Rs.20/-.

    I said to study and buy any stock. Even I said another member to buy 100 shares of #BALA when it was trading around Rs.22 and to study why it is going up and down.

    In short, most of the stocks mentioned in this forum appreciated gradually and still they have attractive value.
  • [Updated] #SUGA reply from jingles, 24 Mar 10
  • Hei Rehan,

    I dont think #BFL is a good buy. But if you analyse the earnings of #BFL since 2004, there is a lot of volatility. Of course, the indusry is facing lots of issues.

    1. Processed chicken- government has imposed a controlled pricel of LKR 320. (Last month increased it to LKR 350, and that is after nearly 1.5 years the industry has been requesting for a price hike)

    2. The GOSL has banned importing maiza, i.e. main raw material of #BFL (feed) and this has paved the way to buy maize from the domestic market at a cost of more thatn 30% higher. (and to add that, in Sri Lanka, maize business is in the hands of few traders.)

    But if you are looking for a time horizon of 1.5- 3 years, BFL might bounce back.
    Given the facts that,

    1. Domestic demad might pick with opening up of untapped markets in North and East and surged tourist arrivals.

    2. I read in some news paper article that GOSL is going to start mass maize cultivation in former war torn areas.

    But at current price levels, i wont go for it for sure!
  • [Updated] Plantation sector. p... reply from MarketWatch, 9 Mar 10
  • Hi Suran

    Stocks never go straight up and down. In addition, we should have some time horizon as well.

    It is true BALA made a loss last quarter due to wage adjustments. However, they will make strong profit in the next quarter.

    On valuation and future earnings, both #BALA and #BFL should go up. Remember #BALA has the lowest debt among plantations companies and even during higher interest environment and during bad period they will do better than their competitors will.

    ATL has improved lot when compare with corresponding last year. They have reduced losses considerably. I think they will make profit in the long run. I do not know much about their investments. They have some investments in Vidu lanka Power Company and Stafford Hotels.

    Any stock can go up suddenly. For example GRAN was trading around Rs.12/- then suddenly it went up to Rs.19/-

    Market is not 100% efficient. Some players can make havoc in the market. Any stock can go up at any time.

    Therefore, even in major trend we must be careful in some occasions. If we can identify that future

    Hi Mission I have noticed average investors never buy in pullbacks and when market is sluggish. If we want to buy some stocks, we have to follow those stocks for a while.

    Globally some brokers want to trade as they want. . We must never allow that to happen.
    Once we learn the market, we can identify market direction, pullbacks, break outs, strong bull trend, down markets etc.

    I repeatedly told in this forum not to listen to other people’s tips and to do some homework before they buy them. Do not change your investment strategy.

    I can remember once one member here posted question. Is it good to buy #BFL at Rs.20/- and BALA around Rs.22/-.

    I said before you buy any stocks to study the sector and to follow the stock. Again, I told another member to buy 100 shares each to study why it is going up and down.
  • [Updated] #ATL, #BFL, #BALA mo... reply from MarketWatch, 9 Mar 10
  • Hi Suran

    Stocks never go straight up and down. There are more short term traders than investors now. In addition, we should have some time horizon as well.

    It is true BALA made a loss last quarter due to wage adjustments. However, they will make strong profit in the next quarter.

    On valuation and future earnings, both #BALA and #BFL should go up. Remember #BALA has the lowest debt among plantations companies and even during higher interest environment and during bad period they will do better than their competitors will.

    ATL has improved lot when compare with corresponding last year. They have reduced losses considerably. I think they will make profit in the long run. I do not know much about their investments. They have some investments in Vidu lanka Power Company and Stafford Hotels.

    Any stock can go up suddenly. For example GRAN was trading around Rs.12/- then suddenly it went up to Rs.19/-

    Market is not 100% efficient. Some players can make havoc in the market. Any stock can go up at any time.

    Therefore, even in major trend we must be careful in some occasions. If we can identify that future

    Hi Mission I have noticed average investors never buy in pullbacks and when market is sluggish. If we want to buy some stocks, we have to follow those stocks for a while.

    Globally some brokers want to trade as they want. . We must never allow that to happen.

    Once we learn the market, we can identify market direction, pullbacks, break outs, strong bull trend, down markets etc.

    I repeatedly told in this forum not to listen to other people’s tips and to do some homework before they buy them. Do not change your investment strategy.

    I can remember once one member here posted question. Is it good to buy #BFL at Rs.20/- and BALA around Rs.22/-.

    I said before you buy any stocks to study the sector and to follow the stock. Again, I told another member to buy 100 shares each to study why it is going up and down.
  • [Updated] #Greg reply from MarketWatch, 8 Mar 10
  • Some stocks could become hot stocks time to time. Finally, they will go out of the market

    I am not criticizing Greg. We have to see their performance and some good results in their accounts. Can somebody explain in detail what they are going to do in the future, their business plan etc.

    I think investors; traders should invest in business they know very well. There are plenty of undervalued stocks available in the CSE.

    If they cannot understand the business, then they should not invest

    When one make profits others have to make losses. Average investors should think about margin of safety.

    They should avoid hot stocks.

    We will see new ten baggers during next five years. Sometimes they can reach the target during next 26 months due to new developments.

    We should keep records for these types of stocks. New investors, foreign funds will enter the market during next 11 months. Some specialized funds will have completely different
    Contrarian intelligent investment strategy and some of our less known companies will have great demand. Therefore some investors, traders should not worry about not having some hot stocks and blue chips companies in their portfolios in the future.

    We can see next direction towards end of this year. There will be strong demand for some subgroups and sectors. We will have sectors oriented bull markets during next 10 years.

    Following are Some of the all time high recorded in the past and recently.

    TWOD Rs.274
    JKH: 430.25
    NDB: 490/-
    DFCC: Rs.680/-
    HNB: Rs.615/-
    COMB: Rs.525/-
    SAMP: Rs.260-
    GRAN: Rs.230/-
    Three acre farms (TAFL) Rs.54/-

    When will they exceed and break above records? Can we see rapid growth in above companies to break above records?

    All time high for three special companies in the CSE.

    #SPEN: Rs.1450/- (reported recently)
    Bairaha Farms BFL (Rs. 43.75 (reported recently) Their previous all time high in the past is: Rs.31/-

    #HASU: Rs.60/- Reported recently.


    Have you notices both #BFL and Aitkin Spence #SPEN have some similarities. Because they broke their previous all time high recently.

    However, I am confident some stocks not only will break their past all time high records but also some important resistance levels in the future. These ten baggers will be biggest winners in the CSE during next 26 months to next five years.

    They are breaking these records for their value, higher ROE, their market and product expansion and new developments etc. Some small and medium sized stocks will become future leaders in the market.

    We will be able to see performance of some stocks during next nine months.

    No stock will go straight up and down.
  • [Updated] #BALA EPS for last y... reply from MarketWatch, 1 Mar 10
  • Thank you for posting a chart on #bala

    When I saw trend for both #BALA and #BFL few weeks before I posted time to watch: both #BALA and #BFL

    Both went beyond Rs.38/-. Unfortunately rally stopped suddenly due to sudden fall in the market due to political uncertainty. Otherwise both would have passed Rs.40 barrier by now.

    Both will make good profits in the next quarter.
  • [Updated] #NHL Technical Break... reply from MarketWatch, 28 Feb 10
  • Hi Rohit

    I think they had a stock split. They went down badly due to poor fundamentals.
    We have to keep this stock in our radar. If we see positive developments and if we can see some strong fundamentals in the future then we should buy this stock after doing careful study.

    Value, market trend is very important.
    Future earnings, future fundamentals are more important than past earnings and fundamentals.

    Now I will talk about three other stocks in the food processing sector (Poultry sub group)

    #BFL (BAIRAHA FARMS), #TAFL (three acre farm) and GRAN (Grain elevators)
    Eight years before GRAN was leader in this sub group and their share prices traded above Rs.200/-. Due to poor fundamentals, it came down below Rs.12/- .Recently it went up suddenly to Rs.18/- level with big volume.

    TAFL is their sister company and they also did well in the past and traded above Rs.50/-

    Previous all times high for above three companies are:
    BFL: Rs.31/-
    GRAN: over Rs.200/-
    TAFL: Rs.51/-

    Gradually #BFL became leader of this sub group during last five years due to innovative management. They disposed non-viable sectors and concentrated on the core business.

    BFL is current leader in the poultry sub group and they will be future leader too. Recently #BFL broke their previous all time high and now trading around Rs.35/-. Still it is trading below the P/E ratio of eight (8). They have attractive ROE and less debt in their books. When compare with their competitors, BFL is not only a leader but also a strong competitor. They are continuously winning awards for their annual reports from Institute of Chartered Accountants of Sri-Lanka.

    This turnaround company took positive steps one by one. Now they have not only local market, but also halal market, tourist market and export market as well. Now they have limited commercial operation in maize and they are hoping to get entire maize requirements from their maize project (including land inTrincomale) from their land in the medium term according to their latest annual report. I think there stock price can go up further due to future developments. Even it can exceed previous all time high of GRAN over Rs.200/- if they can maintain growth, higher ROE and higher profits during next five years.

    They can produce Cobb boiler chicks : the world’s most efficient broilers locally now and it will improve their bottom line and will enable them to maintain their strong position in the market as the preferred and leading supplier of broiler day-old chicks.

    Bairah Farms (BFL) in Sri-Lanka have synergy with USA based Cobb Van trees Global leader in Poultry (recently acquired by HYDRO B.V their former grandparent breeder chicks suppliers). Now BFL is in a position to supply the world’s most efficient broiler chicks Cobb not only to the local market but also to the export market.

    If you like, you can learn more about it by clicking on #BFL.
    Did you look at Tyson food, ANOTHER poultry company in USA (TSN). Sanderson Farm had a great time. This time it is going to be TSN.

    Thanks
  • [Updated] #HNB reply from MarketWatch, 27 Feb 10
  • I posted sometimes back somewhere in October or November last year as “time to watch Banking and Agri-Business sector”

    So far, banking sector has done well. Few Agri business sector stocks including #BFL also doing well. Some of them are still undervalued and they are trading below P/E ratio of 8 in addition to attractive ROE. They have less debt in their books and they have demand for their product and services now.

    We have to keep eye on future earnings and value now.

    I also posted some positing on the plantations sector as well due to valuation and higher tea and rubber prices.

    Our money should be in most attractive sectors, groups and stocks during next 12 months.
  • [Updated] #SAMP results out reply from MarketWatch, 26 Feb 10
  • It is one of the solid companies in the CSE.

    Investors have rewarded it by passing Rs.200/- barrier.

    Those who bought #SAMP at Rs.20/- must be enjoying ten-bagger appreciation now.

    We must thanks investors who invested at Rs.20/- and had patience to get capital gain.

    I think some banks will affect from the lower interest rate during next two quarters. Their will be some affects on the profit margin.

    However, once we see vibrant economy and developments in east north, tourism and farm sector, banks will have more opportunities in the long run.

    DNR I did not go detail in their balance sheet. We have to make sure whether banks are increasing their bad loans or not? Future earrings are more important than past. If companies such as #SAMP, #BFL can maintain their higher ROE, growth, earnings etc they will become most sought after stocks in the CSE.

    It is not too high to buy attractive undervalued stocks with great potential. Similarly, it is not too low to sell once fundamentals become weak.

    Definitely when asset quality is, good investors will recognize them.

    There may be some correction during next nine months. However, #SAMP can go even beyond Rs.500 if they can maintain above average growth, quality assets, and good loan portfolio and if they can maintain ROE above 20 during next five years. In the near term it can go to Rs.300/-. However, it depends on the market players.

    DNR I have seen you that you are going behind value stocks. That is great. Investors, traders, brokers and analysts just become panic by looking at one-quarterly results and without analyzing properly. They forget value factor, debt level and strong future earnings.

    People cannot eat gold, silver and platinum. These non-productive commodities will hit hard during next 18 months and some mining companies will become bankrupt. However, people need simple business. They cannot postpone eating and drinking even during bad times. Some food companies will have biggest growth during next 10 years. They will become ten baggers during next five years due to heavy demand.
  • [Updated] #LCEY reply from rehan, 26 Feb 10
  • agreed. investors are being ill-informed of what stocks are good to buy and for what reasons. like #LCEY and #BFL we need to be patient, once the market sets it's sights on them we should have already accumulated and not start chasing them. Oh #GREG !
  • [Updated] #BALA EPS for last y... reply from MarketWatch, 25 Feb 10
  • I don’t think we should take decision by looking at one quarter

    They are not going to adjust salary issue each and every quarter.

    Those who made salary adjustment last year made heavy losses last year. But now
    they are making good profits.

    If they are not going to make profits during next two quarters due to higher tea and rubber prices then we will have to take some decision.

    We can expect surprise earnings and above average results from:

    #BFL
    #BALA
    #AGAL

    in the next quarter.

    I will go through their quarterly results later in the day? Did they manage to make profit for the last four quarters? Financial year ending As at 31/12/2009.

    Thanks.
  • [Updated] #BFL, #GRAN, and #TA... reply from MarketWatch, 24 Feb 10
  • Rise of other two stocks in the sector may be due to sister affects. May be there are other reasons as well.

    Players buy and sell due to some reasons. There should be some reason to buy.

    More positive news will give more bullish trend to the sector.

    Can we guess other peoples’ mind? Crowd will behave different way at different times.

    In case of #BFL has very good success story and they are number one farm company in Sri-Lanka and leader in the subgroup. They have great potential now. Their balance sheet is strong. They have less debt in their books. They have demand for their products both from local market and export market. They can expand their market and products further. They have innovative ideas.

    Currently they have attractive ROE. From next quarter onwards it will improve further. It will become more and more undervalued. Currently it is trading P/E ratio of below the 8.

    It is one of the most attractive Farm stocks in the world (not only in ASIA but also globally).
  • [Updated] Tea prices in the wo... reply from MarketWatch, 22 Feb 10
  • According to top Tea Company in the world, they expect demand and higher prices for tea until 2011. If you click on the right side of this website on the #BALA, you can get some idea. You can read some of my posing and answers.

    If we can maintain higher tea prices in 2010, I think #BALA will clean their debt completely from their book. Even #BFL also will clean their long-term debt completely from their books if they can maintain above average growth unless they take credit to expand their businesses.

    Thank you for posting 10 years chart on TEA.

    By looking at that chart, we can keep some hope and there will be some upside for tea.

    When compare with other commodities including coffee, Tea is very cheap now.
    Therefore, my personal view is there will be great demand for tea in the future.
    In addition, we can expect change in weather pattern not only in Kenya but also in some tea manufacturing countries time to time. In the mean time, demand for tea is increasing even in India.

    There will be more demand from India, China and Indonesia for many food items specially farm products in the future.
  • [Updated] Will #BFL enter foll... reply from MarketWatch, 21 Feb 10
  • In January and February, there was a shortage in Chicken Products in Sri-Lanka due to higher demand. Chicken sales were very fast may be due to increased demand from hotel sector, elections, opening of northeast etc.

    2008 was very difficult year for global cooperate world. Not only oil but also other commodities such as maize went up dramatically. Still BFL was able to make small profit in the last financial year.

    Now thanks to local farmers, they are in a position to buy some of their maize and feed requirements locally. We have to keep on eye their maize projects and future expansion including expansion in export market.

    Globally some poultry companies will outperform broad market in 2010 and 2011. There are poultry companies with REO of more than 40.

    Even Jim Roggers like Farms now. Warrant Buffet like food farm stocks. Top global investment banks have invested for the long run heavily on some global meat companies now.

    It will be different ball game during next 10 years.

    Farm companies will have more and more opportunities in the future. There will be great demand for sub products and waste. Some waste will make use to generate low cost bio-energy in the future. Already some are using bio-energy now.

    In bad or good times, people have to eat. They will postpone consumer items and luxury items during recession, in high inflation and in deflation.

    But even during bad times people will eat. Some food will have great demand in the future.

    According to global report, chicken consumption will increase and it will be number one meat among consumers.

    I think following companies will make some earning surprise in the next quarter:

    #TPL
    #MASK
    #AGAL
    #BAL
    #BFL

    Remember both #BALA and #BFL has less debt in their books.
  • [Updated] #CWM reply from MarketWatch, 21 Feb 10
  • I think Dr. Senthiverl doing both investment and trading .It is a good investment strategy for CSE.

    I don’ think we can read other peoples’ mind. It depends on the individual himself. Sometimes he will trade. Some times, he will keep as investment.

    He had some investment in #BALA as well. I think he has bought few shares in #Kota as well in this quarter.

    However, If Raj R returns or some other funds come to CSE definitely they will buy stocks such as #BALA and #BFL aggressively now.
  • [Updated] Will #BFL enter foll... reply from MarketWatch, 21 Feb 10
  • At the moment, maize is a major cost for poultry farmers. Despite this as strong competitor #BFL is making profit.

    According to their last annual report, they have limited commercial operation in maize and they are planning to plant their total requirements once they start their start their maize project in the medium term in their land including land in Trincomale District.

    If they successful in their project they can sell their excess maize as well. This will be additional income for them.

    We have to wait and see.

    Next quarter should produce good results due to revenue from export market and tourist market.

    Earning per share:

    Quarter ending 30/06/2009 consolidated: 0.78 Company: 0.70

    Quarter ending 30/09/2009 consolidated: 1.56 Company: 1.12

    Quarter ending 31/12/2009 consolidated: 1.36 Company: 1.32.

    Turnover


    Quarter ending 30/06/2009: 475,737,291

    Quarter ending 30/09/2009: Rs.515,145,307

    Quarter ending 31/12/2009 :502,698,991

    Based on above factors earning per share for chicken sales has increased. I think we can see some improvement in the consolidated earning per share as well in the future due to export sales in world most efficient boiler chicks Cobb-Van tress when compare with corresponding last year.

    Further, globally already some companies make use of chicken Waste to generate energy. Therefore, some global poultry companies will be more profitable in the future.

    According to CEO of COFCO giant in China, as long as oil stays over $60 per barrel Bio-fuel will have great demand.

    http://www.energyboom.com/biofuels/making-power-out-chicken-waste-china

    MAKING POWER OUT OF CHICKEN WASTE IN CHINA

    In July, China opened its largest chicken waste biogas-energy plant. The new plant features an anaerobic digester system that consumes 300 tons of manure and 500 tons of wastewater daily. The resulting biogas then runs engines which generate electricity for the 19,000 square-meter complex – and feeds additional energy into the local grid. Left over material in the digester is used for fertilizer.

    GE Energy’s Jenbacher engines are designed to help farm customers overcome the operational and environmental impacts of their operations. By consuming the waste to create biogas electricity, the technology can greatly reduce a customer’s greenhouse gas emissions and other waste materials, which in turn helps improve regional air and water quality. The engines are also used for coal mine methane and landfill gas applications

    The use of chicken waste biogas to generate onsite power supports China’s national economic goals to promote the use of renewable, distributed energy technologies to improve local energy reliability and reduce regional greenhouse gas emissions. Backed by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the project is receiving financial support through the sale of carbon credits called Certified Emission Reductions (CERs).
  • [Updated] Will #BFL enter foll... reply from akp1973, 21 Feb 10
  • Hi
    There may be an opportunity for #BFL to tap B'desh mkt. In the given scenario it may be a short term till supply demand balance.

    I just browsed through BFL financials and saw the following.

    Earnings per Share 3.13(9 months ending 31st Dec 2009)
    1.32 (3months ending 31st Dec 2009)

    Any idea why thier last quarter is less than the YTD eps? is it maize cost?

    I was expecting the 3rd Qtr to be best one.

    Thx.
  • [Updated] HOTEL SECTOR GOOD CO... reply from MarketWatch, 20 Feb 10
  • Yes, they are good counters in the long run. Already price has adjusted to future earnings. I think some counters have exceeded P/E ratio of more than 100. Cement counters also has gone to the roof.

    Industrial experts think records tourists’ arrival in 2004 will break this year. We have to analyze balance sheet of each company in the hotel sector towards end of this year. Accordingly, investors and traders can get some idea about quality stocks in the sector

    More than hotels transportation and food suppliers such as Bairaha Farms #BFL, Aitkin Spence Travels and Hemas Travels will benefit lot in 2010 due to increased tourist arrival. In addition, small transportation companies also will benefit in 2010. It will be party time for them.

    Year of 2011 going to be visit Sri-Lanka and by 2015, their tourist target is around 1.5 million.

    We have to concentrate on fundamentally sound undervalued stocks now. There are undervalued subgroups, sectors and strong counters with potential in the CSE.

    We should concentrate on stocks with following characteristics now.

    Companies with less debt

    Return on equity more than 15%- this should increase gradually during next five years.
    Attractive value
    Better cost control systems and innovative ideas
    P/E ratio below10
    Increased demand for their products and services (It is better if they have export market as well)
    Characteristics of Aggressive Growth, Growth & Income, Momentum, and Value
    Ability outperform broad market in 2010 and 2011 and beyond
    Investments in productive areas
    Companies with hidden fixed assets such as land and tree
    Strong competitor- Weak competitors will go out of the market in the future
    Ability to expand their market and core business.

    http://dictionary.bnet.com/definition/core+business.html

    Business Definition for: Core Business
    The central, and usually the original, focus of an organization's activities that differentiates it from others and makes a vital contribution to its success. The concept of core business became prominent in the 1980s when diversification by large companies failed to generate the anticipated degree of commercial success. In 1982, Tom Peters's and Robert Waterman's book In Search of Excellence suggested that organizations should stick to the knitting and avoid diversifying into areas beyond their field of expertise. An organization's core business should be defined by its core competences.
  • [Updated] SRI LANKA STOCK PICK... reply from MarketWatch, 19 Feb 10
  • It is party time. It is tea time.

    Keep on eye companies with more debts will bankrupt first in the event of collapse of global economy.

    We know what happened last year.

    Always go for companies with low debt. It applies to plantation sector as well.

    Company with less debt is a strong competitor. Company with more debt is a weak competitor.

    Both #BALA and #BFL are strong competitors. They have less debt in their books. In the mean time they have best cost control systems and they are taking effort to reduce their cost and to increase their cash positions.

    Both have P/E ratio of less than 8. In addition #BFL has attractive ROE.

    According to Analysts #BALA has given better return as percentage after recommending to their clients.

    I feel next time even #AGAL will give better return as a percentage
  • [Updated] #Ceylon tea brokers ... reply from MarketWatch, 19 Feb 10
  • It is party time. It is tea time.

    Keep on eye companies with more debts will bankrupt first in the event of collapse of global economy.

    We know what happened last year.

    Always go for companies with low debt. It applies to plantation sector as well.

    Company with less debt is a strong competitor. Company with more debt is a weak competitor.

    Both #BALA and #BFL are strong competitors. They have less debt in their books. In the mean time they have best cost control systems and they are taking effort to reduce their cost and to increase their cash positions.

    Both have P/E ratio of less than 8. In addition #BFL has attractive ROE.

    According to Analysts #BALA has given better return as percentage after recommending to their clients.
  • [Updated] #SUGA reply from rehan, 18 Feb 10
  • if it shows some strong buying activity at around 34 levels then it might be a buy. looks like it has undergone some sharp selling in the last few days but I'd keep it on the radar though it needs to prove its worth first. though for around the same price you can pick up #BFL which had stunning Q3, Dec 2009 results.

    read the post made by @MarketWatch below:
    http://investnow.lk/2010/02/16/bairaha-farms-bfl-is-a-golden-egg-now/479/

    just my opinion ;)
  • [Updated] Plantation stocks reply from MarketWatch, 17 Feb 10
  • I think next quarter plantations companies, hotels and food processing companies such as #BFL will have improved results.

    In short, they should produce better results than current quarter.

    Hotel sector is overpriced. Therefore investors should go for undervalued counters and sectors.
  • [Updated] KOTA reply from MarketWatch, 17 Feb 10
  • I think next quarter plantations companies, hotels and food processing companies such as #BFL will have improved results.

    In short, they should produce better results than current quarter.

    Hotel sector is overpriced. Therefore investors should go for undervalued counters and sectors.
  • [Updated] KOTA reply from MarketWatch, 17 Feb 10
  • I think next quarter plantations companies, hotels and food processing companies such as #BFL will have improved results.

    In short, they should produce better results than current quarter.

    Hotel sector is overpriced. Therefore investors should go for counters and sectors
  • [Updated] Plantation stocks reply from MarketWatch, 17 Feb 10
  • I think next quarter plantations companies, hotels and food processing companies such as #BFL will have improved results.

    In short, they should produce better results than current quarter.

    Hotel sector is overpriced. Therefore investors should go for counters and sectors
  • [Updated] #GREG reply from dnr, 17 Feb 10
  • uthpalae7 don't buy shares just because those are going up. see why these are going up. if you cannot find a good reason for it to go up, you shouldn't be buying that it can come down at any time at even a faster rate.

    its stupid to ask questions like "Will it reach 300..?". No one can predict short-term movements in the stock market. If you hold fundamentally sound stocks (such as #BFL, #SAMP, #BALA etc) those will go up gradually overtime.
  • [Updated] Bairaha Farms #BFL i... reply from MarketWatch, 16 Feb 10
  • Thanks.

    I think both Plantation and hotels will announce better than expected results and above average results in the current year.

    Increased tourism will create demand for poultry products and tea. Tea prices are higher than corresponding last two years. Further crop damage in Kenya, global tea shortage will create more demand for tea. Sometimes tea prices will go the roof. We have to keep on eye on the tea sector now. Even #TPL and #MASK have some potential.

    So tea companies and #BFL will benefit most.
  • [Updated] Bairaha Farms #BFL i... reply from MarketWatch, 16 Feb 10
  • Thanks for answers

    Another positive sign for #BFL

    Bank OF Ceylon A/C Eagle Growth Fund has become 13th largest shareholder in #BFL.

    Another top company has become 10th largest shareholder of this company in addition to few top shareholders.

    Who knows they will accumulate systematically and gradually now.

    Major shareholders have not sold their shares except small quantity by one shareholder.

    Rehan we always should go for value stocks with growth and great potential in the future.

    DNR their return on equity will improve further in the future. It is difficult to find company with more than 15% of return on equity in the CSE. From next year onwards, they are in a position to maintain more than 20% return ion equity.

    One by one now, brokers are getting interested in BFL and plantations companies now.

    We must not forget that there are specialized foreign funds waiting to enter CSE and already they have finalised some funds to invest in undervalued small caps, attractive Agri-Businee stocks and selected blue chips.

    We will continue to search hidden gems and neglected counters in the CSE during next 12 months.
  • [Updated] Why do we see higher... reply from MarketWatch, 14 Feb 10
  • I forgot to mention that I was bullish on #NDB, #DFCC , PCAB, LFIN and CFIN as well in addition to #BFL and #BALA.in the past.

    Currently, I am more bullish on both #BALA and #BFL due to some reasons.

    I think Both #NDB and #DFCC will announce good results in the current quarter.
  • [Updated] Why do we see higher... reply from MarketWatch, 14 Feb 10
  • Thank you for all answers.

    Bandara I recently identified some stocks and but they do not have liquidity. Once I found quality stocks after quarterly results I will post as soon as possible

    Time to time I am bullish on some stocks. Different people have different reasons for that.

    I was bullish on stocks such #DOCK, #HNB, #COMB, #SAMP, #SAMP, #SPEN,and some other stocks that I mentioned in this forum .time to time. In fact, I did not buy some of stocks even though they appreciated by more than 100% sometimes more than 200%.

    Value, demands for their products in the near future and in the long run and future earings are more important for me.

    Then there is another important factor. When there is a shortage in something then we can see there will be more demand in the future. Currently there is a shortage in Global tea inventory and shortage in chicken products in South Asian countries

    We have to keep eye on fundamentally sound stocks with breakouts on new high. They will advance rapidly in the near future. We must never sell these types of stocks.

    BALA has attractive value. On valuation should go up rapidly.

    RAJ Ratnam bought and sold BALA In the past. When he saw value, he bought the share. I heard about he was about to buy BFL as well. Who knows once he come back to CSE he will buy BFL aggressively.

    As I said earlier, there should be reason to buy and sell stocks. If we see fundamentals are going to become weak and if we see another stock with great potential, then we should dispose part of our current holding and then we should go for it. Otherwise, we should keep them as long as fundamentals are strong.

    Still I think #BALA is the number one Tea Plantations Company
    #BFL is the number one Food Farm Company in Sri-Lanka.

    I am more bullish on these two stocks now.

    More about #BFL

    They have characteristics of Aggressive Growth, Growth & Income, Momentum, and Value and they will outperform broad market in 2010 and 2011

    Synergy with Cobb Vantrees Global leader in Poultry

    Have concentrated in on the core business very well

    Took timely action to dispose non-productive areas

    The management have a determination to continue to develop products and process

    Companies have an above average sales organization

    They have good cost analysis and account control-They are consistently winning awards for their accounts from Institute of chartered accountant of Sri-Lanka

    They are not issuing new shares and right issues frequently

    After turnaround, they made profits for the last two years
    So far, current year has announced above average and better than expected results.

    They can produce Cobb boiler chicks : the world’s most efficient broilers locally now and it will improve their bottom line and will enable them to maintain their strong position in the market as the preferred and leading supplier of broiler day-old chicks.

    When they start to expand their market, products BFL will become one of the most sought after stock in the CSE.

    I think in the current financial year they are in a position to increase earnings, , growth and Cash position in addition to attractive ROE and good financial ratios. It will become more undervalued.

    They have limited commercial operation in maize and they are hoping to
    Commence full-scale maize production in the medium term in their land including company land in Trincomale District according to their latest annual report.

    Already they commenced their export and sometimes they will have export orders from Bangladesh as well due to decision to import chicken product from bird flue free country.

    They will have to supply chicken products not only to the local market but also to local and foreign tourist market and export market now. Currently more than 500 local tourists visit daily to Jaffna. What about other cities such as Trincomale, Manner and other north and east cities. They will have to supply chi ken products to north and east as well. This is the reason for slight shortage in chicken and egg in Sri-Lank. There is more demand than supply now. Eventually prices will go up.
  • [Updated] Why do we see higher... reply from rehan, 13 Feb 10
  • @bandara i think it's good that @MarketWatch is consistent with his recommendations as if you've found some great stocks you would want more people to look into them. #BFL and #BALA could possibly be some of the best undervalued shares on the market and now is possibly the best time to accumulate them.

    @bandara if you have any alternative stocks for us to look into would you mind posting about them? thanks.
  • [Updated] Never sell stocks wi... reply from rehan, 12 Feb 10
  • @MarketWatch thanks for the advice! what's your take on #CTHR ? as you mentioned #BFL and #BALA were bullish (i have some of each).

    my thoughts on the market are that it might react the same way as it did before the presidential election just before it rallied. the political uncertainty might prove to be an opportunity as long as the major players don't start selling ahead.
  • [Updated] GREG.N?? reply from MarketWatch, 11 Feb 10
  • Fazmin only #BFL make steady profit and growth now. You can get good idea about their debt level, profit and growth from once they release their quarterly results.

    BFL will have above average results and better than expected results. I will post some details on #BFL later
  • [Updated] #GRAN reply from MarketWatch, 11 Feb 10
  • We cannot take decision by looking at results of one quarter.

    There should be some pattern of consistency.

    In the recent past also GRAN went up to 16 with big turnover. There was a distribution at that time. And it came down back to around 13 levels. I don’ know how it will react this time.

    On the other hand #BFL went up slowly and systematically breaking all the resistance levels. Now it has arrived at an extremely bullish position due to fundamental and technical reasons. Once they announce their results it will become more and more attractive. Valuation will become more attractive. This is the time to look for cash cows.

    They will break all the records and resistance levels during next five years due to favourable environment for their business.
  • [Updated] #GRAN reply from MarketWatch, 11 Feb 10
  • If #BFL break Rs.60/- in the short run then #GRAN could break Rs.20/-

    Remember Gran traded above Rs.200/ and TAFL above Rs.51/-

    Therefore #BFL will break all above resistances levels during next five years. It is a s number one food farm compnay in Sri-Lanka

    Bairha Farms have concentrated on their core business very well. I don’t find any other Agri-Business stock have concentrated like this in Sri-Lanka.

    They took some timely action by disposing non productive sectors in the past

    I didn’t expect them to export their products so soon to the export market.

    They have valuable land in East part of Sri-Lanka and they are determined to develop their maize project there. Their land should be revalued now. In addition they have some valuable tree such as teak in their land.

    In addition they will introduce new products to the market. They have innovative ideas.
  • [Updated] #GRAN reply from MarketWatch, 10 Feb 10
  • There is a success story for #BFL. It is number on Agri Food farm stock in Sri-Lanka.

    They made profits for last two financial years. Their earnings, turnover continuously increased last three quarters. Actually, they produced better than expected results during last three quarters. They have less debt.

    Now In addition to local market they have export market and tourist market as well. Keep eye on their future developments.

    Fundamentally, GRAN is not as strong as BFL. However, because of sister affects and some other reasons stocks such as #GRAN can go up.

    #ATL also can go up.

    Both GRAN AND ATL will have long-term prospects depend on how they are going to mange their business during next five years.

    If Jim Roggers an d some other top investors decides to buy stocks, he will definitely go for Food companies with less debt, cheap value and potential. Therefore, companies such as #BFL and #BALA will come to his radar during next five years.
  • [Updated] Keep eye on some pul... reply from MarketWatch, 9 Feb 10
  • I do not think anybody can predict the market. For example, players, analysts and brokers expected strong market today. However, market was down in the morning.
    We cannot make money all the times. In the same times, we cannot be right all the times. Even top global investors, top bankers and funds mangers make mistake with having research team. We have to compete with all these types of players in the market.

    We can make mistakes. We will sometimes make losses. We can learn lessons from those mistakes.

    Once you find attractive hidden gem you can make attractive gains and you can cover all the losses you made in the past.

    Market is not 100% efficient. There are different types of players in the market.
    Some small stocks will take time to make profit. You should know exactly when to buy and sell.

    Sometimes we will have to wait more than five years.

    Some say we cannot beat the market. However, we can beat the market once we get experience, knowledge and learn other factors related to stock market.

    Do not depend on other peoples tips.

    Once stocks break their some resistance levels (records) first time it is sign of extremely bullish stocks.

    In short, different people have different reasons to buy and sell stocks. We should have reason to buy stocks. If we cannot meet those reasons and when we see fundamentals are going to become weak then we should sell stocks.

    In Sri-Lanka, there are three farm related stocks: Bairaha Farms (#BFL) and Thee Acre Farms (TAFL). In the past TAFL traded above Rs.51- and then GRAN traded above Rs.200/-.

    Now, #BFL is number one farm company in Sri-Lanka. Even Jim Rogers like Farm companies now.

    In short, it is better to invest in hidden gems and massively undervalued stocks. Keep eye on attractive stocks breaking their bases and resistance levels for the first time. They will go up rapidly in the near future. Some stocks can become 10 baggers’ during next five years.

    Similarly, #BALA is the number one tea plantation company in Sri-Lanka. It is a massively undervalued company in the CSE. They have more current assets than current liability. They have lowest debt in their book among Plantations Company in Sri-Lanka.
  • [Updated] Small cost of shares... reply from MarketWatch, 9 Feb 10
  • Yes, some smart investors know how to make money by investing in small cost of shares and loss making companies.

    If we do some study and if you can follow trend then we can make money.

    In a panic situation, some stocks will become very attractive. Every pull back is opportunity for some investors.

    Those who missed rallies should look for future opportunities. Always there are opportunities in the market.

    Volatility will be there for the next 10 years.

    Best investment strategy:

    Invest in undervalued value stocks and hidden gems. Stay away from overheated counters

    Example for value stocks with great potential

    #BALA, #BFL

    If we can identify and invest in correct stocks then we should not have to worry much about price in the short run.
  • [Updated] Ceylon Tea Brokers: ... reply from MarketWatch, 8 Feb 10
  • We have to keep eye on some attractive secondary stocks as well.

    I feel stocks such as #BALA, #BFL and #ATL will appreciate rapidly in the near future.

    Both #BALA and #BFL will appreciate rapidly due to great value, prospects, fundamental and technical reasons. If momentum traders identify these stocks, there will be strong rally in these two stocks.

    In the meantime, we can expect some upside potential in selected blue chips including #NDB and #DFCC.
  • [Updated] Does anyone think th... reply from MarketWatch, 8 Feb 10
  • Rehan. Happy to hear. I can remember when #DOCK was trading around Rs.120/- some thought it is overpriced. Investors and traders should think about future earnings and growth.

    I think members who invested in #DOCK must be very happy now. Then #BFL when it is trading below Rs.20/- even one top experienced top trader disposed it and he kept #GRAN. What happened?

    Nobody even top global investors cannot win all the time in the market. However, once we find real hidden gems we can beat the market. There will be some hidden gems in the CSE during next 12 months. We have to keep eye on those stocks now.
  • [Updated] Does anyone think th... reply from MarketWatch, 8 Feb 10
  • In the current market on valuation #BALA should appreciate rapidly.

    Some analysts expect better than expected and above average quarterly results from companies such #NDB, #BFL and #BALA. We have to wait and see. These stocks will become more attractive in the future.

    This is the time to invest in undervalued food and beverage-oriented stocks and in hidden gems. Globally some food-oriented stocks will outperform market in 2010 and 2011.

    Both #BFL and #BALA will become two of the most attractive stocks in the CSE sooner than later. There will be new top intuitional investors in their shareholder books in the future. More and more investors and traders will start to buy these two stocks in the future. Liquidity will improve further.
  • [Updated] #NEST reply from MarketWatch, 8 Feb 10
  • Among food and beverage oriented companies #BALA and #BFL more attractive than others.
  • [Updated] LCEM & KHL reply from MarketWatch, 7 Feb 10
  • Different sectors, subgroups and stocks will have strong bull market at different times.

    Some intelligent investors, Intelligent contrarians investors have ability to identify most next promising subgroups in advance. Unlike those days, even some top global investors prefer some neglected sub groups and stocks. They know there will be great demand for these products during not only next 12 months, next five years but also next 20 years.

    Globally in some markets three was some sort of correction during last week These neglected sub groups and stocks posted biggest gain even in down market. Analysts expect these stocks to go up further in the coming months.

    Avoid companies issuing more and more shares frequently.

    One must understand that rights issue will cause a company’s net profit to spread over a larger number of shares. In other words, a company’s earnings per share will decrease, as earnings allocated to each ordinary share an investor has invested in will be diluted.

    However, one must also understand that capital raised through rights issue can further strengthen the company’s balance sheet and allow it to pursue strategic opportunities in core markets. In the long run if they make use these right issues intelligently company will benefit lot.

    In the current market right issue of Rs.10/- is attractive. Most important thing is keep eye on their future earnings.

    Do not follow the crowd
    Donot park all your money only in blue ships and overcrowded sectors.
    Avoid crowded stocks
    Invest in simple business that we know very well. For example, some doctors instead investing in health stocks they are trying to buy banking stocks or some other stocks.
    Invest in under invested stocks and sectors with great potential.

    During medium term, we can get some idea about their growth, profit once they release their financial results. Otherwise, we can buy them when their stock price becomes more attractive. At the moment, investors have over invested in above stocks.

    Increased tourists arrival will benefit KHL. Increased construction activities will benefit LCEM. However, do not buy at the top.

    Keep eye on companies going to benefit from other sub groups as well. Increased tourist arrival and increased development activities in north and east will benefit following companies as well.

    #BFL, #HHL, #SPEN and other transportation, traveling agents and airlines,

    However, make sure that you are paying correct value for any share.
  • [Updated] LCEM & KHL reply from MarketWatch, 6 Feb 10
  • Market is not 100% efficient. If you are new, you must be very careful on over heated sectors and stocks. First, try to do some study on the market. There will be some opportunities during next six months. Patient is very important in this game. Do not buy any stocks just because they are posting in websites including this website, just because your broker says, and just because analysts recommend their stocks. Try to understand business and value. We must do some homework as well.

    As long as speculators, crowd, some sophisticated investors are there, both KHL and LCEM can go up. There will be two or more shakeouts in the market to eliminate these speculators. At that point, we will see market correction especially during next nine months. Some stocks will come down more than 10%. Some stocks will stagnate. Some stocks will stagnate and will go sideways. Some will have correction of less than 5%.

    Some bull stocks will appreciate slowly and systematically in 2010.

    Once they complete right issue, KHL will come down. I think LCEM will also come down during next six months.

    Both stocks are long-term play. Keep eye on their long-term developments.

    In a strong market, I said many stocks could go up suddenly. I also said such as SEMB, ATL and LFIN could go up suddenly due to some reasons. Watch out for ATL now if you can identify some technical signals. I am not that expert in technical analysis and they also cannot forecast next correction, market crash, sector oriented bull market in advance.

    Infact even though I mentioned some stocks I did not buy all of them. Even those stocks have gone up more than 100%. Sometimes more than 200%.

    I prefer deeply undervalued fundamentally sound stocks specially hidden gems to other stocks.

    Some stocks are not too high to buy in a strong market. Some stocks not too low to sell when we see fundamental are going to become weak.

    When SPEN trading around Rs.700/- I said it will go above Rs.1000/-. Now is trading around Rs.1300/-

    Do not buy speculative hotel stocks, cement stocks and other penny stocks at the top.

    Some of the stocks that I listed in this forum are, #DIPD, #BFL, MBSL, HASU and CHMX all are making profit and going to make profits in the future too. MBSL went above Rs.30 and it came back below Rs.20 due to right issue.

    I am more bullish on #BFL than before because they are expanding their market including export market. Remember in the same sector TAFL traded above Rs.51/- and GRAN above Rs.200/- in the past. #BFL has more potential than TAFL and GRAN now.

    I am also very bullish on my latest addition #BALA. Look at Watawala. It is trading around Rs.150/- with having more debt, current liabilities than #BALA. Look at Kahawatte it is trading around Rs.36/. Currently #BALA is trading around Rs.33/-

    Currently tea prices are higher than corresponding last two years. This is good for tea companies. Global tea shortage also will benefit tea companies.

    On valuation, Bala should appreciate rapidly. It is one of the deeply discounted stocks in the CSE.

    In short, if you are new at least, try to understand P/E and net asset per share.

    If you interest in company try to compare companies in the same sector. No stock is 100% risk free. Even banks can become bankrupt. Margin of safety is very important.

    Invest in simple business you know very well.
    Invest in undervalued companies.
    Don not follow the crowd.
    Have your own investment strategy
  • [Updated] Why poor foreign par... reply from MarketWatch, 5 Feb 10
  • RAL, BFL, COCO, CIC, RHL, LAMB, Pelwtte Diary, GRAN, TAFL, TESS are some of the Agri-Business stocks available in the CSE.

    #BFL has concentrated on their core business very well now.

    In CIC except Agri Business sector, other sectors are not doing well now. We have to monitor their long-term developments now.

    It is better to do some study on any stock before we put out money. Especially future earnings are more important than past earnings. Globally Food oriented Agri-Business stocks will have more demand than other Agri-Business stocks in 2010. Even Jim Rogers prefer these types of Agri-Business stocks now.

    In the Plantation, sector tea sector is more promising than other sector due to global inventory shortage. In addition, tea is a food-oriented commodity. There will be great demand for food commodity over other commodities. Watch out for coco, coffee and tea. Gold will come down dramatically.
  • [Updated] Why poor foreign par... reply from MarketWatch, 4 Feb 10
  • Have you seen recently when a foreign fund bought heavily stocks market went down when they sold market went up?

    Unlike those days, we get so many short-term traders in the global market. Even hedge funds take position of less than two years for some stocks. This is the reason for volatility in the market.

    Even Raj Rajaranam bought and sold stocks such as #EDEN, #BALA, TWOOD and Riverina Hotels etc. time to time. I heard even he was about to buy #BFL as well. They know what to buy, when to buy, when to sell and when to fold and when to unfold.

    Different foreign funds, investors and hedge funds have different investment strategy. They will not just buy. They will wait for the correct time to ambush the market. They will do some study before they enter foreign markets. They know local investors know local conditions better than others do.

    We are seeing different types of funds including new foreign funds entering CSE and local Treasury bill and bond market now. Even now, some are buying whenever they see opportunities.

    Do not forget some emerging funds have brought funds to local treasury and bond market heavily. Some of them are waiting for 10% correction in the market. Some funds already have bought banking stocks such as #COMB and waiting to buy some #, Agri Business stocks. Their favourite two sectors are Banking and Agri-Business sector

    Some CSE oriented funds just finished raising their funds from clients and they will enter CSE during next 12 months. Even Mark Mobious is waiting for at least 10% correction. Jim Rojer also will enter CSE at the correct time. Remember they like to invest in completely different sectors to others. Most probably, they will enter tea commodity sector and Agri Business sector.

    Some USA funds like to add stocks such as JKH whenever they see attractive price. It is true some foreign investors who bought earlier including Galen Fund and Raj R. disposed their stocks recently due to their own reasons. Some investors adjust their portfolio periodically. Some want to do short term trading. Some want to take funds in and out time to time.

    Market will not go straight up and down. I think there will be market correction during next nine months.There will be two or three shakes up to eliminate speculators before we see final correction.


    Some overpriced stocks will come down by more than 10%. Some hidden bull stocks slowly, gradually and systematically will rise during next 12 months and our money should park in these types of undervalued stocks with great potential during not only next two quarters, next 12 months but also next five years. Some stocks will come down by 5%. Some stocks will stagnate and will go sideways during second half of this year.

    However, we have to watch out for strong sector oriented bull markets especially in the Plantation sector and Agri-Business sector in the current year. Even foreigners and newly created CSE oriented foreign fund will buy these sectors in the future. Currently they are studying Agri-Business and Tea plantation sector etc.

    Some Positive factors

    Lower oil
    Lower interest rate
    IMF loan
    Higher tea prices when compare with corresponding last two years.
    Upgrading country position into middle-income emerging market from frontier market.
    Rated as an eighth fastest developing country in the world.
    More newly created funds to enter during next 12 months,
    Next nine months is very crucial for CSE. It will make or break.
    Best investment strategy:
    Invest in undervalued future leaders in the sub group, hidden gems and neglected sectors.

    There will be great demand for some sectors from some foreign funds surprise to many. Globally some emerging gurus, sophisticated investor like to invest in some neglected sectors and some other sectors now.

    Finally, not a single company is 100% risk free. Even we saw volatility in Blue chip stocks. Both JKH and HHL traded below Rs.60 in 2008 and 2009. Some are talking about volatility in other stocks. They do not know there will be volatility for their stocks depend on demand for their products, global situation etc.


    However, there will be always demand for food-oriented companies during next 20 years. Many Sri-Lankan companies will have opportunity to export food itmes including poultry products to China. Companies such as #BFL should make use of these opportunities sooner than later. It is good they are already entered the export market.
  • [Updated] New comer reply from MarketWatch, 1 Feb 10
  • Do not try to do quick trading, day trading and very short term trading. We will lose everything.

    Different stock will go up and down at different times.

    Average investors should think about margin of safety. They should not invest in speculative, penny and overvalued stocks. Always invest in undervalued quality stocks and in hidden gems.

    In the current market, if you have good knowledge you can make profits. Those with more knowledge and inside information will have advantage over others. Be careful.
    There are different types of players in the market.

    Don’t buy when some are tyring to pump specially loss making companies and speculative stocks. They will pump and dump.

    JKH still can go up. Nobody can predict the market correctly. Some expected so many corrections during last four months.

    Can economists, analysts forecast what is going to happen during 2nd half of 2010. Can they tell exactly predict market crashes, corrections, volatility, sector oriented bull markets in the future. We will have volatility during next 10 years. We will have more and more sector oriented bull markets during next 10 years. Even we will have correction market crashes during next 20 years. What happened in the past will happen in the future too in a different way.

    Finally, I will give you some study. Why don’t you buy 100 shares of #BFL and #BALA initially? When they go up and down, you can study why they are going up and down and reasons for that.

    Once I wrote one new member to buy 100 shares of BALA and to study their movements and reasons for movements.

    You can study their market including export market, world tea prices, increased in tourism, new products, new markets, new product ranges, and demand for their product time to time.

    If fundamental is going to become weak and if demand for products is, going to go down badly then we should think about selling stocks.

    Future earnings are more important than past earnings. Some neglected stocks will become ten baggers during next five years.

    Invest in business you know very well
    Invest in simple business
    Do not follow the crowd
    Do not listen to other peoples tips
    Do some study when others are posting
    Always invest in undervalued stocks with potential.
    Invest in hidden gems
  • [Updated] New comer reply from rehan, 1 Feb 10
  • @Suren Welcome to the site! It would make sense to shed some of your stocks that haven't been performing and buy some active performers. @MarketWatch has suggested #BALA and #BFL for quite a while now and it seems that these two stocks are real performers (as of today). We have some really intelligent investors sharing their insights here and you can make use of the 'Stocks mentioned' list on the right to see what people have been mentioning lately ;) Hope this helps :D
  • [Updated] Keep eye on Bairaha ... reply from MarketWatch, 1 Feb 10
  • Thanks Rehan.

    We will try to find undervalued hidden gems such as #BFL and #BALA during next 12 months before hedge funds, emerging funds, frontier market funds and other foreign funds buy them.
  • [Updated] Plantation reply from MarketWatch, 31 Jan 10
  • More about market rally ;( some rally was small and some was very strong) _

    1.Initially, we had rally in stocks such as #JKH, hotel stocks etc. JKH has gone up from Rs.60/- to Rs.180. Some hotel stocks have appreciated by more than 200%

    2.Then we had rally in banking and insurance stocks such as #NDB, HNB, COMB, NDB, HASU, MBSL etc.

    3.After that we had rally in #DOCK, SPEN, DIST,CHMX,CFIN,LFIN,COCO,CIC, LINV ETC

    4.In between, we had strong rally in selected land and property sector such as CHOU, LINV, LCEM, GREG etc. GREG is still rising.

    5.Recently we saw beginning of rally in selected undervalued counters including undervalued hidden gems. Eg:. #BFL

    6.Finally, plantation sector just started their rally.

    7.In the mean time, we can see strong price movements in selected speculative counters with poor fundamentals.

    It is our choice: Where to put our money intelligently. WE should keep our money in undervalued counters with attractive fundamentals. There will be strong demand for selected products in both local market and export market in 2010.

    In short, Fundamentals will drive the market in 2010. Future earnings are more important than past earnings. Some neglected subgroups and stocks will have biggest growth in their business life during next five years.

    Following sub groups will have more activities in 2010. These groups will have growth during next five years as well.

    Tourism

    Agri- Business sector (Selected Food processing companies will have more potential than others)

    Tea sub group should benefit most in the plantation sector due to global inventory shortage at least in the first half of this year. If drought start in Kenya this year tea prices will go up rapidly. Three will be record prices for tea and coffee.
  • [Updated] #LCEM wat price will... reply from MarketWatch, 31 Jan 10
  • More about market rally ;( some rally was small and some was very strong) _

    1.Initially, we had rally in stocks such as #JKH, hotel stocks etc. JKH has gone up from Rs.60/- to Rs.180. Some hotel stocks have appreciated by more than 200%

    2.Then we had rally in banking and insurance stocks such as #NDB, HNB, COMB, NDB, HASU, MBSL etc.

    3.After that we had rally in #DOCK, SPEN, DIST,CHMX,CFIN,LFIN,COCO,CIC, LINV ETC

    4.In between, we had strong rally in selected land and property sector such as CHOU, LINV, LCEM, GREG etc. GREG is still rising.

    5.Recently we saw beginning of rally in selected undervalued counters including undervalued hidden gems. Eg:. #BFL

    6.Finally, plantation sector just started their rally.

    7.In the mean time, we can see strong price movements in selected speculative counters with poor fundamentals.

    It is our choice: Where to put our money intelligently. WE should keep our money in undervalued counters with attractive fundamentals. There will be strong demand for selected products in both local market and export market in 2010.

    In short, Fundamentals will drive the market in 2010. Future earnings are more important than past earnings. Some neglected subgroups and stocks will have biggest growth in their business life during next five years.

    Following sub groups will have more activities in 2010. These groups will have growth during next five years as well.

    Tourism

    Agri- Business sector (Selected Food processing companies will have more potential than others)

    Tea sub group should benefit most in the plantation sector due to global inventory shortage at least in the first half of this year. If drought start in Kenya this year tea prices will go up rapidly. Three will be record prices for tea and coffee.
  • [Updated] Plantation reply from MarketWatch, 30 Jan 10
  • I give below answers given to question. LCEM

    Bundara:

    If I can identify a company with a great potential, less risk, at least they have a protected and segment market in a weak economy conditions, if they have less debt, good current ratio plus other positive factors including better financial ratios (future ratios are more important for me), market trend, crowd, ability to expand market, growth, strong balance sheet etc then I will put my all eggs into one basket.

    Few companies that you mentioned also very good companies and we should have put all our eggs there.

    We cannot win the market all the time. Similarly, we cannot identify all the strong bull stocks in advance. Remember we do not have research team. Still if we can do some study we can identify at least some hidden gems before hedge fund and other funds recognize them.

    Can you post detail of recent results of RHL profit and loss account? There balance sheet etc. It is not clear in the CSE.

    I will try to post some undervalued counters once companies announce their results.

    Both #BALA and #BFL are my few favorite companies among some selected companies in the CSE now. Initially I thought #BFL would export their products in the long run. They began their export much earlier than I thought. It looks like management has innovative ideas. We have to monitor their future developments.

    Take BALA. They have managed their cash and debt very efficiently and effectively. Look at some other other plantains companies. They have mountain of debt in their book
    They also have innovative ideas and better cost control system just as #BFL

    In short I like to put all my eggs if can identify stocks such as #NDB, #BFL, #DOCK and #BALA etc in advance. I think we will be able to identify some hidden gems during next 12 months.

    Bandara. Thank you for your answer.

    At different times, different stocks can go up and down.

    I agree that not only fundamentals but also other factors can change the market direction. There are different types of market players in the market.

    As I said earlier, market is not 100% efficient. If we cannot get at least 20% return annually then we should leave stock market immediately and should invest in safest Treasury bill market.

    Have you noticed some stocks without any fundamentals went up rapidly and then came down again? That is why we should not get caught in a pump. Some will pump and then dump.

    Therefore, it is better to invest and trade in fundamentally sound profitable companies with demand for their products. As long as there fundamentals are intact we should not worry much about price movement in the short run. Eventually they will go up once market recognizes them.

    Finally, we see some movement in the plantation sector. I mentioned about this rally in my previous question and answer.

    All time high during last plantiaon rally

    BALA Rs.71/-.
    Kota went to Rs.73.
    Mal went to Rs.68/-.
    Kgal went to Rs.69.50
    KVAL Rs.78/-
    ELPL Rs.140/-
    WATA all time high Rs.120/- . (This record price recorded last Friday)

    Above prices will not repeat again. We have to wait and see. Once different players, professional investors become active I think #BALA will outperform other plantations stocks in the near future.

    In short, some selected stocks in few sectors including plantation sector have come out of their base and they are ready for next big move. Their intermediate trend is up. In other word, their bullish trend is intact.

    Avoid stocks with more volatility now. These stocks can go up and down.

    However, some stocks will go up slowly, gradually and systematically by breaking their previous record prices in the near future due to attractive fundamentals. Some stocks will become ten baggars during next five years due to demand for their products, new markets including export market, new attractive products, attractive asset prices during next five years. Once I find this type of stocks, I will definitely put some eggs in this basket.
  • [Updated] #LCEM reply from MarketWatch, 30 Jan 10
  • Bundara:

    If I can identify a company with a great potential, less risk, at least they have a protected and segment market in a weak economy conditions, if they have less debt, good current ratio plus other positive factors including better financial ratios (future ratios are more important for me), market trend, crowd, ability to expand market, growth, strong balance sheet etc then I will put my all eggs into one basket.

    Few companies that you mentioned also very good companies and we should have put all our eggs there.

    We cannot win the market all the time. Similarly, we cannot identify all the strong bull stocks in advance. Remember we do not have research team. Still if we can do some study we can identify at least some hidden gems before hedge fund and other funds recognize them.

    Can you post detail of recent results of RHL profit and loss account? There balance sheet etc. It is not clear in the CSE.

    I will try to post some undervalued counters once companies announce their results.

    Both #BALA and #BFL are my few favourite companies among some selected companies in the CSE now. Initially I thought #BFL would export their products in the long run. They began their export much earlier than I thought. It looks like management has innovative ideas. We have to monitor their future developments.

    Take BALA. They have managed their cash and debt very efficiently and effectively. Look at some other other plantains companies. They have mountain of debt in their book
    They also have innovative ideas and better cost control system just as #BFL

    In short I like to put all my eggs if can identify stocks such as #NDB, #BFL, #DOCK and #BALA etc in advance. I think we will be able to identify some hidden gems during next 12 months.
  • [Updated] Upcoming IPOs.......... reply from MarketWatch, 27 Jan 10
  • There should be IPO similar to #NDB, Telecom and attractive plantations like in the past.

    I think sooner than later policy makers will list Sri-Lanka insurance. If investors see, political stability after presidential election there will be more activity in the market.

    Foreign funds including specialized funds mainly will look for political stability. Once they see it, there will be more foreign investment in the CSE during next 18 months.

    Keep eye on undervalued sectors, stocks and hidden gems now. Some will announce above average results and better than expected results in the current quarter. Some hidden gems will improve their ROE, earning per share and cash position as well. Stock prices will adjust accordingly.

    However, some stocks will have limited upside because already they have adjusted for future stock prices. Eg: Some speculative stocks in Hotel and construction sector.

    Two stocks to watch now:

    #BALA
    #BFL

    On valuation #BALA should go up rapidly in the near future. Even #WATA is trading above Rs.110/ with more debt and less current asset. Their profitability in last three quartes is not impressive as #BALA.

    On the other hand, #BALA has the best current ratio among plantations companies. They have the less debt. In other words, they have the lowest debt among plantations companies in their book.

    They have more current asset including cash and short-term investments. Their current asset is equal to double the amount of current liabilities. .

    More about #BFL

    http://www.dailymirror.lk/print/index.php/business/127-local/1556.html

    Bairaha Farms was the proud recipient of the Bronze Award in the Food and Beverage sector at the recently-concluded Annual Report Competition organised by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Sri Lanka, which confirms the company's professionalism in the accounting process as well.
  • [Updated] Pelwatte IPO reply from MarketWatch, 24 Jan 10
  • I think globally, there will be great demand for dairy products and poultry products in the medium term to long term. Industrial Analysts expect strong demand from emerging countries such as India, China, Russia and Brazil due to increased middle class population during next 10 years.

    In addition, there will be demand from frontier and other highly populated countries. Supply cannot increase by overnight.

    Being a free from virus, bird flue and mad cow disease there will be great export opportunities for some Sri-Lankan listed companies in the future. #BFL already entered export market recently.

    However, policy makers should take action to maintain competitive environment in the international market. Currently cost of animal feed is one of the highest in the world. This can be solved by removing middlemen in the animal feed sector. Currently there is a control price for chicken. However, they have not introduced control price for maize and other cereals. There should be control price for maize as well.

    #BFL is trying to develop their own maize projects as well as sub farms rather than relying on out growers in the future.

    Similarly, if Pelwatte Dairy takes action to develop their own feed supply source, they will have great growth once they become successful in their dairy project.

    Both dairy and poultry companies will benefit form increased tourism as well.
  • [Updated] #HAYC reply from MarketWatch, 23 Jan 10
  • In last November 10th I mentioned following stocks as stocks to watch:
    •
    Category / Uncategorized posted by MarketWatch, 10 Nov
    • Stocks to watch now: HAYC, RCL, HNB, SAMP, DOCK, GRAN, BFL, CFIN, LFIN, COMB, DFCC, HAYL HHL JKH

    Out of all I prefer #BFL now due to value and future prospects. I prefer #BALA as well due to attractive valuation when compare with other stocks including other plantations Stocks.

    That does not mean other stocks doesn’t’ have any upside potential. They also can go up.

    If we know very well about their products, if we see value, availability of raw materials, future demand for their products, if we see growth during next five years, market trend and if we see stock price is going to go up further then we should think about buying #HAYC at this price. Both #DIPD and #HAYC will affect from the fluctuation of raw material prices. Therefore, we must have some idea about their raw materials as well.

    Otherwise, it is better to look for some undervalued hidden gems with great value. Some hidden gems will have hidden undervalued fixed assets such as land and tree in addition to their core business.

    Remember some companies will have both bad and good times due to some of the following factors:

    Less or more demand for their products
    Cost of raw materials can go up suddenly when we see commodity bull market
    Raw materials shortage
    Change of weather patterns
    Global economy situation
    Labour problems

    Remember different investors have different strategy in investment and trading stocks. Some are taking both short term and long-term approach. Some like to invest for the long run.

    For example, Raj Rajaratnam bought and sold following stocks at different times whenever he saw value in those stocks during last five years.

    #BALA
    #JKH
    #NDB
    #DFCC
    #HNB
    #COMB
    #TWOOD
    #CIC
    #PMB
    #BHR
    #EDEN

    I heard he is about to accumulate #BFL as well. Unfortunately, he has to face for insider allegation now. We have to wait and see. I think when he returns to CSE he will invest in Agri-Business sector, selected hotel stocks and plantations in the future.

    In short, top investors and experienced investors know how to identify hidden gems and quality stocks in advance.

    More about CSE;

    Irrespective of economic, political situation and illiquidity for some stocks, some experienced investors and foreign funds know how to take maximum advantage from CSE.

    Every situation is an opportunity for some investors.

    Market volatility will be common during next 10 years. There will be sector oriented bull markets time to time.

    In addition, there are some local funds and investors that they can become suddenly active for some selected stocks.
  • [Updated] #HUEJ trade on 70 Le... reply from MarketWatch, 20 Jan 10
  • In a bull market all types of stocks can go up. However average investors should think about margin of safety.

    Actually still we haven’t seen real bull market yet. Because some sectors, stocks (more than 60) both fundamentally sound undervalued and other loss making, some speculative stocks are still stagnating. They didn’t not go up during last six months.

    What we are seeing now is sudden surge in some sectors and stocks due to so many reasons mainly end of war in Sri-Lanka. We are seeing a bull trend now.

    Some are good in trading speculative, penny and loss making stocks.

    Stocks such as WATA, KVAL continuously went up in both bull and bear market. Even during period of violence these stocks traded above Rs.50/-

    WATA broke Rs.100/- in the first time.

    Best investment strategy:

    Invest in undervalued hidden gems in any type of market before market, hedge fund and other fund recognize them.

    Both #BALA and #BFL are real undervalued hidden gems.

    They are current leaders in their sub group. They will be future leaders as well. They are making profits. They have demand for their product locally as well as in the export market. They have less debt in their balance sheet. They are expanding their market and have innovative ideas. They have more current assets. They are undervalued. In addition they have valuable land and trees.
  • [Updated] New Developments: Ba... reply from MarketWatch, 18 Jan 10
  • http://www.dailynews.lk/2010/01/18/bus22.asp

    Bairaha Farms enters export market

    Fortune G-P Farms Lanka Ltd., which is an associate company of Bairaha Farms PLC, entered the export market, with the export of two consignments of Parent Breeder Chicks to Nepal. The consignments consisted of 6,000 Parent Chicks valued at Rs 2.5 million.

    A single Parent bird has the ability to breed about 130 broiler chicks during its life span. Local breeding companies require a total estimated 812,000 birds annually.

    Until recently, 85 percent of this requirement was imported, but now Fortune G-P Farms (Lanka) Ltd. (FGPFL), has the capacity to supply nearly 50 percent of the local requirement.

    The cost of an imported Parent Breeder Chick is around US$4. Valuable foreign exchange has been saved as a result of Fortune G-P Farms (Lanka) Ltd., producing and supplying these breeding chicks to the local market in addition to bringing in foreign exchange through its exports.

    Local breeding companies have an edge in buying these breeding chicks from Sri Lanka since there are cost savings and there is no hassle of clearing chicks from Customs, in addition to being able to get the supplies locally with minimum stress for chicks from transportation.

    Bairaha is a vertically integrated poultry producer, engaged in all the aspects of breeding, production and processing with the exception of feed milling.

    An average 1.8 kg broiler in live weight would consume around 3.3 kg of feed and of this generally around 50 percent is Maize.


    I think if policy makers take action to control maize prices, take action to allow poultry farmers to buy directly form maize farmers or if they control middlemen not only #BFL but other poultry market players also will have great export opportunities in counties like China, India, middle east and Maldives etc if they can supply poultry product at a competitive price.

    If policy makers take action to safeguard maize farmers, poultry producers and consumers instead middlemen there will be many employment opportunities, foreign exchange etc in the future.

    .
  • [Updated] #CHOT reply from MarketWatch, 16 Jan 10
  • I think investors should pay attention to future earnings, growth and value.
    Avoid penny and speculaive stocks.

    void Following are some of the best companies in their sub group including undervalued hidden gems available in the CSE.

    #BFL
    #BALA

    #selected banking and finance counters. Finance companies will benefit due to lower interest rate.

    #selected hotel stocks with growth potential.

    #BFL will benefit from higher demand for their products from tourism, north and east,, maize project, export market, less debt and better cost control system, innovative management etc.

    GRAN traded above Rs.200/- and TAFL traded above Rs.50/- in the past. I think if #BFL succeeds with meeting all future opportunities during next five years including export market #BFL stock prices could go above Rs.200/- during next five years. #BFL is the current leader in the their sub group and they will be the leader in the future too.

    We can expect this share price if they announce better than expected results continuously, if they maintain higher return on equity (ROE), better financial ratios etc in the future.

    #BALA will benefit from Global tea shortage, winter set to be coldest for 30 years, higher tea auction prices than last year, less debt, more current asset including cash position better cost control system, innovative management etc. #BALA is one of the leaders in the plantations group and they also will become future leader.

    If #wata can trade around Rs.95/- #BALA should trader at least around Rs.100/- now.

    I think both #BALA and #BFL will have one of the biggest rallies in their business life sooner than later.

    Now we can see demand for tea in international market as well.

    http://sify.com/finance/good-demand-at-n-india-tea-sales-news-commodities-jegmmrggjgh.html

    Good demand at N. India tea sales
    Kolkata: Last week, the CTC teas at the North India tea auction centres at Kolkata, Siliguri and Guwahati saw a good demand, according to J. Thomas & Company Pvt Ltd.

    International
    Kenyan teas in Mombasa auction saw a strong general demand at dearer rates following active support from Pakistan, the UK, the CIS and West Asia.
    In Colombo, Sri Lankan markets saw a good demand. Pekoes appreciated.
    Inquiries were forthcoming from Iran, the CIS and Dubai.

    http://www.financialexpress.com/news/tea-shortage-to-widen-on-higher-demand/564163/

    Tea shortage to widen on higher demand
    A global tea shortage may widen this year and extend into 2011 as a rebound in production in Africa, Sri Lanka and India trails demand growth, the world’s biggest tea-plantation company said.
    The deficit may reach as much as 130 million kg (287 million pounds) by April, compared with the 110 million kg forecast in September, and prices may rise to a record again this year as shortages persist, Aditya Khaitan, managing director, of McLeod Russel India Ltd., said in an interview. The deficit was estimated at 100 million kilograms last year.

    http://www.commodityonline.com/news/FAO-pats-India-as-global-tea-prices-climb-24134-3-1.html

    In a report, FAO's Inter-Governmental Group on Tea (IGGT) said, some producing countries, such as India, have acted responsibly and announced that they would not be expanding current tea areas beyond what is required for replanting and rehabilitating existing tea gardens".

    The FAO Tea Composite price, the indicative world price for black tea, reached a high of $3.18 a kilogramme in September amid droughts in India, Sri Lanka and Kenya against increased demand for the product, compared to an average price of $2.38 per kilogramme in 2008

    Tea Board of Kenya (TBK) however said local producers are unlikely to expand their area under crop.

    "Several neighbouring countries are already sinking investment to expand their area under crop but here in Kenya the focus would be to compete on productivity and quality," it said in a statement

    IGGT said the fact that demand for tea remained robust, despite the global recession, supports the assertion that tea consumption is "habit forming" and is relatively price inelastic for most blends except higher priced quality teas.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10619380

    UK winter set to be the coldest in 40 years


    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/article6976679.ece

    Winter set to be coldest for 30 years
    Brace yourselves for a freezing cold, bleak new year. This winter is set to be the coldest for more than 30 years, since the Winter of Discontent of 1978-79.
    It was the coldest December in Britain for 14 years, 1.8C (3.2F) below average, and the coldest in Scotland for 28 years, 2.1C (3.8F) below average.
  • [Updated] #CSEC reply from MarketWatch, 13 Jan 10
  • Yes still there are undervalued shares in the market.
    I think some stagnated stocks, neglected stocks and sectors will have rally sooner than later.

    Already momentum has started in the plantation sector. I think some companies in this sector will appreciate rapidly.

    Today #BFL announced their interim dividend and it looks like their cash position is improving faster than we thought. Generally they announce dividend after releasing annual reports. They have announced interim dividend much earlier this time.

    We can expect above average and better than expected results from companies such as #DOCK and #BFL in the current quarter.

    We have to keep eye on their future developments such as market expansion, demand for their products, new products, growth and earnings because there will be attractive capital gain.
  • [Updated] Two Plantation stock... reply from MarketWatch, 9 Jan 10
  • We have to keep eye on neglected plantations sector now.

    There is possibility #BALA, #MAL and #KGAL all could break Rs.50/- level.

    So far global rubber, tea and coffee market trend is positive.

    Above three plantations companies are very attractive not only when compare with other plantations stocks with other overvalued stocks.

    Some of the stocks to watch during next two months are:

    #DCOK
    #CFIN
    #LFIN
    #BFL
    #BALA
    #MAL
    #KGAL
    #NDB
    #DFCC
  • [Updated] Two Plantation stock... reply from MarketWatch, 8 Jan 10
  • Immam Thank you for reply. i

    Pl refer to answer given by Pissa6666.

    Reply from pissa6666, 15 days ago for my another question.

    Friends, thanks for very healthy discussion based on your research findings.

    Basically, my intention of suggesting #BALA as an investment stock were:

    1. Sound financials
    2. Less gearing
    3. Good short term investment / deposits which cushions short term crises
    4. Prudent management
    5. Investment / strategy to plough back for sustainable production capacity
    6. Conservative dividend payment policy which ensures some return to the shareholder while ploughing back the profits

    Traders will attach excessive importance on quarterly profits. For them, now to exit and re-enter after price effect based on 31 Dec.09 financials make perfect sense.

    If we look at investment portfolio, given that the risks identified by you both are digestible(based on individual risk appetite), I would say #BALA is one of the best stocks for medium to long term value creation.

    If tea industry should sink, #BALA will be among the last companies to sink, provided Govt. completely turns a blind eye.

    What I feel is, we should not attach undue importance to a one off provision figure, created by the back dated wage agreement.


    More about #BALA

    Current Assets: 1004,075,000
    Current Liabilities: 590,014,000
    Short term investment: 230,620,000

    Call Deposits: 171,762,000

    Cash and Bank Balance: 46,457,000

    Long term borrowings; 93,023,000

    Short term borrowngs: 83,944,000

    Few Plantations stocks with mountain of debt and losses trading above Rs.30/-

    According to above facts #BALA is most attractive plantations stock in the CSE.

    Even #Watawala their current asset is equal to current liabilities.

    Whereas #BALA has more current asset than current liabilities.
    Almost double the amount of current liabilities.

    They have lowest debt in their book. Can you find stock similar to this in the plantations sector now?

    Nine months earnings per share: 7.89: Net assets per share: Rs.56.88


    Currently there is demand for #BFL in the Agri-business sector and #KGAL and #BALA in the plantation sector now.
  • [Updated] Two Plantation stock... reply from MarketWatch, 8 Jan 10
  • ThankImmam Thank you for reply. i

    Pl refer to answer given to pissa6666.

    Reply from pissa6666, 15 days ago for my another question.

    Friends, thanks for very healthy discussion based on your research findings.

    Basically, my intention of suggesting #BALA as an investment stock were:

    1. Sound financials
    2. Less gearing
    3. Good short term investment / deposits which cushions short term crises
    4. Prudent management
    5. Investment / strategy to plough back for sustainable production capacity
    6. Conservative dividend payment policy which ensures some return to the shareholder while ploughing back the profits

    Traders will attach excessive importance on quarterly profits. For them, now to exit and re-enter after price effect based on 31 Dec.09 financials make perfect sense.

    If we look at investment portfolio, given that the risks identified by you both are digestible(based on individual risk appetite), I would say #BALA is one of the best stocks for medium to long term value creation.

    If tea industry should sink, #BALA will be among the last companies to sink, provided Govt. completely turns a blind eye.

    What I feel is, we should not attach undue importance to a one off provision figure, created by the back dated wage agreement.


    More about #BALA

    Current Assets: 1004,075,000
    Current Liabilities: 590,014,000
    Short term investment: 230,620,000

    Call Deposits: 171,762,000

    Cash and Bank Balance: 46,457,000

    Long term borrowings; 93,023,000

    Short term borrowngs: 83,944,000

    Few Plantations stocks with mountain of debt and losses trading above Rs.30/-

    According to above facts #BALA is most attractive plantations stock in the CSE.

    Even #Watawala their current asset is equal to current liabilities.

    Whereas #BALA has more current asset than current liabilities.
    Almost double the amount of current liabilities.

    They have lowest debt in their book. Can you find stock similar to this in the plantations sector now?

    Nine months earnings per share: 7.89: Net assets per share: Rs.56.88


    Currently there is demand for #BFL in the Agri-business sector and #KGAL and #BALA in the plantation sector now.
  • [Updated] Time to keep eye on ... reply from MarketWatch, 6 Jan 10
  • It all depends on the market players.

    There are undervalued stocks including massively undervalued stocks. Some are fairly valued and some are over valued.

    Different investors have different expectations and some are paying premium price to acquire stocks such #JKH, #SPEN now.

    In case of stocks such as #DOCK and #BFL, investors expect above average results in the current quarter. If they announce better than expected results their stock prices could go up further. Fundamentals will drive the market in 2010.

    It look likes some undervalued, stagnated stocks such as #CFIN, #LFIN, #BALA and few plantations stocks are building their base and some are slowly moving up.

    In short it is better to invest in fundamentally sound stocks.

    Investors have overlooked some value stocks with great potential in the recent rally. There are some attractive stagnated stocks as well. Keep on eye on rubber and tea market.
    I think these commodity prices could go up further.

    These small and mid caps will have the greatest return in the future. Investors should rotate stocks and sectors now. Some undervalued stocks and sectors will outperform market during next six months.

    They are trading below the market P/E. In addition some will announce above average results, better than expected results in the current quarter.

    Some stocks have formed their intermediate and long term up trend. Therefore, pull back will make some great opportunities

    I appreciate if members mention about their stock picks so that other members can give their opinion with their experience and knowledge.
  • [Updated] How will the Cement ... reply from MarketWatch, 4 Jan 10
  • More about P/E ratios:

    Current market p/e ratio is around 16
    •
    When compare with market p/e ratio sectors such as Finance, Plantations stores and supplies have some of the lowest p/e ratio in the CSE.(Around 11).

    Companies such as #NDB, #BALA, PABC, #BFL, CFIN, #LFIN and #HDFC etc have some of the Lowest p/e ratios in the CSE.

    I think Land sector also is trading P/E ratio of below 11. Companies with farm land will have above average growth than land with residential houses in the future.

    Some of the above companies have p/e ratio of less than 5 and have attractive ROE. More than that some have less debt in their books and have innovative ideas. Their cash flow will improve further.

    Currently hotel, health have p/e ratio of more than 62..
    Oil palm and power sector has p/e ratio of more than 45.
    Trading has around 27 and motor sector has around 36.

    Services, telecommunications, diversified and manufacturing has over 20.
  • [Updated] How will the Cement ... reply from MarketWatch, 3 Jan 10
  • Cement, cable and ceramic sector will have above average growth in the long run and we can not expect growth in the near future. Therefore both tokyo and Lcem are long term play. We should not buy overvalued stocks.

    Only agriculture sector will benefit at the initial stages and thereafter we will see faster growth. It is estimated that the agricultural sector will command a higher growth rate in the future due to economic expansion.

    We should give more weight on companies in the Agriculture, Finance and transportation sectors.

    I think fundamentals will drive the market in 2010 and investors who adjust their portfolios with fundamentals will be able to generate higher returns in the New Year.

    Try to keep the best mix of securities while rotating sectors at the right time.

    Some analysts prefer following sectors now.

    Agriculture and agriculture related businesses
    Companies in the plantation sector,
    suppliers of agriculture
    Banking and Finance

    After agriculture sector,services sector such as insurance, banking, storage and transportation and tourism sector will benefit accordingly.


    Stocks to watch:

    #NDB
    #DFCC
    #BFL
    #LFIN
    #SPEN
    #BALA
    #DOCK
    #CFIN

    selected hotel stocks
    selected production stocks
  • [Updated] New to Stockit... lo... reply from MarketWatch, 30 Dec 09
  • Remember no company, group; sector is 100% risk free.

    I will give you some risks now.

    Fluctuations of interest rate and currency rate
    Demand and supply
    Market situation
    Country situation
    Global factors
    Wars
    Climate changes
    Cost
    Debt position etc.

    Some companies are better in cost control systems. They have less debt. Management has innovative ideas. They have ability to expand market, introduce new product ranges, new sub products etc. Some companies once they mature in their business they can make use of opportunities to the maximum level. Some will have attractive income sources just as #DOCK

    Future earnings are more important than past earnings.

    Some will have good records in the past. Still they can go bankrupt. We must able to identify future trend. Our friend is trend. There will be new leaders in their sub groups during next five years.

    Remember experienced and knowledgeable players have advantage over others.

    Stocks with higher earnings, growth, and higher demand for their products and services in the future especially for a longer period will have long term growth.

    Some companies have P/E ratio of over 150. These companies can call as overstretched. On the other hands they are over priced. I DON’T think they can improve their earnings in the future to maintain higher share price. Some have mountain of debt as well

    Current market P/E ratio is around 16.

    Even you can learn from the CSE web site as well.

    To my knowledge I mentioned few hidden gems such as #BFL, #HASU, #DIPD,#MBSL and #CHMX middle of this year and recently I said I see value only in #BFL,

    Now I see great value in #BALA as well. Why don’t you buy 100 shares of # BALA and then you can do some study? You can get some idea why it is going up or down time to time. I think we can see some new developments in the commodity market during next few months.

    Best Investment strategy:

    Invest in hidden gems
    Invest in massively undervalued companies going to make profits during next two quarters, next one year and next five years.
    Invest in neglected stocks
    Avoid crowded stocks
    Do not follow the crowd
    Avoid overpriced and over stretched stocks
    Invest in simple business you know very well

    Finally I have not done detail study on stocks that you mentioned. Base on my experience I think there are undervalued better stocks in the market now.

    #ACL will have demand for their products in the future. TWOD went up rapidly in the past due to buying of RAJ Rajaratnam. I don’t think Raj will buy this again. He will buy completely different stocks in the future.

    Actually your companies are some of the good companies available in the CSE. But we must make sure not to overpay for any overvalued and overstretched stocks.
  • [Updated] Prospects in 2010! ... reply from MarketWatch, 29 Dec 09
  • You have got some points.

    If a risky stock has a PE ratio of 5 and the company becomes bankrupt, this would not be an undervalued stock.

    An undervalued stock will usually have a low PE ratio

    I w ill. Give you some examples:

    Pl refer to answers given to # BALA and #JKH

    If you compare # BALA with other pplantations stocks you can get some idea.

    # BALA is massively undervalued stock in the CSE.

    Results as at 30/09/2009 Source: CSE website

    Current Assets: 1004,075,000
    Current Liabilities: 590,014,000
    Short term investment: 230,620,000

    Call Deposits: 171,762,000

    Cash and Bank Balance: 46,457,000

    Long term borrowings; 93,023,000

    Short term borrowngs: 83,944,000

    Few Plantations stocks with mountain of debt and losses trading above Rs.30/-

    According to above facts #BALA is most attractive plantations stock in the CSE.

    Even #Watawala their current asset is equal to current liabilities.

    Nine months earnings per share: 7.89: Net assets per share: Rs.56.88


    KAHA as per 30/09/2009

    Net asset per share: 2.47
    Current Liabilities: 1279,601,000
    Current Assets: 476,280,000
    Short term investment:

    Call Deposits: 18,424,000
    Cash and Bank Balance:
    Long term borrowings; 352,510,000
    Short term borrowings: 169,136,000

    Still it is trading around Rs.31.

    You can also get some idea if you compare following stock in the Agri-Business’ Sector

    #BFL, TAFL, GRAN and CIC


    Both #BFL and # BALA are attractive.
  • [Updated] Market PE Ratio reply from MarketWatch, 28 Dec 09
  • To my knowledge current market P/E raio is around 15.8

    When compare with market P/E ratio, still some sectors are trading below P/E ratio of 12.

    On P/E ratio and earning per share basis value stocks with growh potential such as #BFL #BALA, #LFIN,#CFIN are very attractive.Curently they have some of the lowest p/E ratios among stocks in the CSE.

    Both #BALA and #BFL have less debt in thier books.In addition there are few hidden gems with lower P/E RATIOS and attractive peg ratios.
  • [Updated] Beginner... need adv... reply from MarketWatch, 22 Dec 09
  • Some stock picks techniques:

    Poultry Sector:

    #BFL has lowest debt in their book when compare with GRAN and TAFL. #BFL has become leader in the sub group now.

    #BFL has more potential. They are making profits now. They have positive financial ratios when compare with competitors.

    #there will be more demand for their products in the future from tourism industry.

    # They have won awards for their financial reports from Institute of Chartered Accountants

    In addition we have to keep eye on their maize projects, new markets, business expansion and new development etc.

    If they announce better than expected results in the current quarter just as last quarter their stock price could appreciate rapidly. Now few institutional and top investors have become shareholders of this company.
  • [Updated] #KGAL ? reply from MarketWatch, 15 Dec 09
  • I think among value stocks #BALA and #BFL have more promising future.

    If you can see rubber prices are going to go up after May 2010 then current #KGAL price is attractive.

    For me #BALA is the most attractive plantations stock in the CSE.
  • [Updated] Among following stoc... reply from MarketWatch, 5 Dec 09
  • I was able to identify market trend for these stocks and then I posted above question in June to get more information from other members as well

    MBSL appreciated rapidly even it went above Rs.30 and recently it came down due to issue of new shares. I do not see much value in this stock now and we have to watch their medium and long-term trend now.

    Both #SERV and #BFL also traded around Rs.20/- recently.

    A result of GRAN is not that impressive in the current quarter and we have to monitor their medium term and long-term growth now.

    There is a rumor that #SERV will sell their holding to foreign investors before January. Stock prices of Companies targeted for acquisition could go up.

    #ATL has not released their current result yet. I think there will be long-term value in this stock. It mainly depends on the demand for their products in the future and how they going to make profits in the future.

    Out of all #BFL has very good balance sheet, less debt. They announced above average and better than expected results in the current quarter as well. They have become leader in their sub group now. They have better cost control system .Demand will pick up in the future due to demand from tourism industry. We should follow this stock during next five years. This is really a hidden gem in the CSE.

    In short, it is an undervalued and overlooked stock in the CSE. It is an A grade poultry stock in the CSE.

    Factors to consider when investing in #BFL

    If you compare with some related companies #BFL has good ratios and less debt. They reported increased profits for the last three quarters as well.

    Their net asset per share: Rs.30.77, Six months earning per share: 2.34

    GRAN: Net asset per share 23.81, Nine month earning per share: Group 1.52:

    CIC: Three months earnings per share: around 0.31 per share, Six months around 1.41

    Few Institutional institutions also have become major shareholders of #BFL now.
    Future growth and earnings
    Tourism rebound
    Latest positive developments
    Business expansion
    New markets
    Innovative ideas
    New sub products including Maize project
    Better cost control system
    Other positive factors including less risk than in the past.
    Lower interest rate

    In addition to #BFL keep on eye on #BALA now. These two companies announced better than expected and above average results in this quarter. Future earnings are more important than past earnings.

    I think these two Bs will outperform market sooner than later.
  • [Updated] HUEJ.. HEXP.. TESS..... reply from MarketWatch, 2 Dec 09
  • Tess and Mull has some liquidity. What about Liquidity of HUEJ and HEXP.

    Some stocks can go up when big traders and investors become active and when they buy and accumulate aggressively. Once they disappear from the market, stock prices can go down.

    Market is not fundamental driven. There are momentum traders, speculators, and professionals. There are different types of players. Some like to invest in loss making companies. Different stocks will appreciate at diffident times.

    Stock market is the place where you can make both profit and loss. If somebody making losses continuously, they should leave stock market immediately. Nobody can make profits continuously. Some companies could become bankrupt in the future.

    It is better to put money companies run by professional mangers with innovative ideas.

    Companies with better cost control system will outperform other companies in the future.

    In the short run all penny stocks, speculative stocks and stocks of loss
    making companies can go up as long as some investors buy those stocks. In the long run only companies who can make profits will prosper.

    Different companies will benefit most at different times due to currency trend, interest rate, demand for their product and services etc. We will see rally in one sector during next six months.

    Some of the stocks to watch during next five years:

    #NDB
    #DFCC
    #CFIN
    #LFIN
    #BFL
    #BALA
    #HNB
    #COMB
    #SAMP

    Plus neglected and overlooked companies with better prospects.
  • [Updated] Galleon out of #CLPL reply from pissa6666, 28 Nov 09
  • CSE is a market with USD 9Bn. market cap. But it gets shaken and stalled for months due to a bad status of an investor holding USD115Mn.

    Now political uncertainty has the ability to almost dry the market, except for a few large parcels changing hands - again that or RR.

    It denotes that CSE especially is very shallow and mostly illiquid. This is one of the prime reasons why foreign investors are shying away, irrespective of many attractive pluses.Out of listed cos. many counters trade only in a few hundred or thousands of shares, denoting that exit from any share is very difficult, unless buyer is pre-arranged.

    The economic trend is now irreversible. MR and SF will fight it out there and anyones election is not going to drastically alter economic direction.

    Unless the local retail,high-networth,corporate and institutional investors have confidence in this, actively trade and ensure a steady market, significant foreign investment will be hard to comeby.

    Now Galleon is out of #COMB, partially out of #HNB and now out of #CLPL.The reaction of investors on the arrest of RR was uncalled for, given the actual scenario now.

    The Pres. election also will passby this way, I am sure. Dictatorship/militarisation etc. are all nothing but wishful thinking, if SF wins.What he has agreed is only good for the coutry, if he has a tinge of integrity and stands by it.

    So let us look at the bigger picture. Pick fundamentally sound shares. Have the holding power. Do not get caught to margin trading trap. It is a killer. At weak moments it will kill you and make you to repent when market turns around. I feel the following shares are attractive at current levels:

    #JINS, #GRAN, #BALA, #PABC, #MAL, #LFIN, #BFL, #RICH, #LITE, #NTB, #LIOC, #GLAS, #SIRA. All these have the potential to give a decent shareholder value/capital gain at current levels.
  • [Updated] Can we expect sidewa... reply from MarketWatch, 22 Nov 09
  • I think market timing will lose great opportunities. Different stocks will go up and down, appreciate and depreciate at different times. It all depends on the type of investor and trader. Some see great value in some stocks now. There are bull stocks in side way and falling markets.

    Eg: When SMLL was trading around Rs.12/- many did not want to invest when market was falling and when there was uncertainly (except few investors) Now it is trading around Rs.40/-.

    SEYB(X) was trading around Rs.8/- when market is falling and in sideway markets. . Now trading around Rs. 16/-

    Recently even some experienced investors invested in #ATL, #NDB, #DFCC, #DOCK and in few banks, finance, plantations stocks and food processing (agri-business) etc. I do not think they will just invest unless they see future value and growth.

    In addition, we cannot time to buy some sectors and those sectors can go up suddenly.
    Plantation is one such sector. We can expect higher tea prices due to global tea shortage from next month onwards. Therefore, some tea companies will benefit most.

    I think #BFL, #DOCK and #BALA will be able to announce better than expected results during next two quarters. They already announced better than expected and above average results in the current quarter. I can see great value in above three stocks now.
    Their balances sheets are strong when compare with their competitors. We can expect dividend as well.

    #NDB and #DFCC also doing well. Finance companies will benefit most due to lower interest rate. We have to keep eye on #LFIN #CFIN, #HAYC and other undervalued banking stocks as well.

    I think above companies and some hotel stocks should be in our portfolios during next 10 years. Some of the companies will have biggest growth in their business life during next five years. If we see long-term fundamentals are going to become weak then we should sell.

    In case of diversified companies, we should apply rotating investment strategy time to time during next 10 years. Some years some will do well and while some will have less impressive years. We should follow value approach when we buy diversify companies and we should sell them when they do over diversifications in the future. .

    In short, it is better to invest in massively undervalued stocks, overlooked stocks currently making good profits and going to make profits in the future.

    On other words, this is the time to invest in massively undervalued stocks with great potential.
  • [Updated] Renuka Agri Foods IP... reply from MarketWatch, 22 Nov 09
  • It does not look like IPO of FOBERS with massive amount of shares. Many bought blindly at that time. Many lost money. Forbes made VANIK more vulnerable at that time. Both ACAP and VANIK were competing each other and put valuations of plantations companies to the top. At that time, some of the top brokering firms are recommending VANIK as strong buy. Can you believe? Therefore, do not invest in controversial and overvalued companies in the future.

    If oversubscribed they will follow some of the following methods.

    They will give preference to small investors with less than 1000 shares and balance will distribute with some other formula.

    Allocate according to some percentage.

    We should read their prospectus carefully to get some idea.

    Following two statements I made for the question: NEXT IPO asked by innam

    1. If value is attractive, we should subscribe for the IPO.

    Otherwise, it will come down in the medium term and long term


    2.http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/fullstory.php?nid=825872120
    Food Business

    Sri Lanka coconut exporter IPO seen as attractively priced

    Nov 20, 2009 (LBO) - An initial public offer of shares by Sri Lankan coconut product exporter Renuka Agri Foods is seen as being priced to a discount to market given its immediate earnings record, analysts said

    Factors to consider:

    Foreign competitors
    Weather patterns

    I think investors should keep part of their money in agri-business companies specially food processing companies and quality plantations companies to benefit short term, medium term and long term.

    I think companies such as Renuka Agri Foods, #BFL and #BALA will have above average growth in the future.

    Renuka Agri Foods will give some bullish trend to the current sluggish market during December and January period.
  • [Updated] Next IPO reply from MarketWatch, 20 Nov 09
  • http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/fullstory.php?nid=825872120
    Food Business

    Sri Lanka coconut exporter IPO seen as attractively priced

    Nov 20, 2009 (LBO) - An initial public offer of shares by Sri Lankan coconut product exporter Renuka Agri Foods is seen as being priced to a discount to market given its immediate earnings record, analysts said

    Factors to consider:

    Foreign competitors
    Weather patterns

    I think investors should keep part of their money in agri-business companies specially food processing companies and quality plantations companies to benefit short term, medium term and long term.

    I think companies such as Renuka Agri Foods, #BFL and #BALA will have above average growth in the future.

    Renuka Agri Foods will give some bullish trend to the current sluggish market during December and January period.
  • [Updated] What's your expected... reply from MarketWatch, 18 Nov 09
  • It is very difficult question to answer. It all depends on the market situation, trend and valuation of the stock.

    If we see major trend is up and bullish trend is intact then we should not sell stocks under any circumstances. We do not get major bull markets all the time. Some stocks will go up in any market situation in the future.

    Even top and experienced investors make mistakes in selling stocks. Either they sell too early or they sell too late. They sometimes take losses as well. Some will sell due to special circumstances. For example, there is a rumor that Gallon fund has sold commercial bank shares yesterday. There will be demand for quality stocks such #COMB, #HNB, #NDB, #DFCC.

    Remember post war scenario will be completely different from the past.

    I don’ think there will be demand for companies with falling profits and loss making companies invested by Gallon such as CIC, CLPL and PMB.

    I my self have taken losses so many times when I went against my buying strategy.

    If we can buy correct stocks then we will not have problem of selling. If we have bought stocks such as #KVAL, WATAWALA when they were trading below RS.15/- five years back still you can sell them above Rs.50/-

    There are few hidden gems in the CSE and if we can carefully identify those stocks, we will be able to get short term, medium term and long-term capital growth in addition to dividend during next five years.

    We cannot be 100% correct all the time. Majority do not have selling strategy.

    If long-term fundamentals become weak, we should sell.

    Sometimes fundamentally sound stocks will stagnate for sometimes despite attractive valuations and financial ratios.
    However, once market recognizes them, they will appreciate rapidly.

    Some investment strategies:

    Sell weak stocks in the sector and buy deeply undervalued strong stocks. For Example: Try to compare #BALA with leading Plantations companies. #BALA will become future leader in the plantations sector.

    Similarly, #BFL is a current leader in the sub group and they will become future leader too.

    Then # DOCK also will become leader.

    Sell overvalued stock and buy undervalued stocks
  • [Updated] #TFC reply from MarketWatch, 17 Nov 09
  • I suggest it is better to invest in undervalued profitable companies with great potential. Companies such as #BFL, # DOCK and #BALA reported above average results and we can expect not only capital gains but also dividend in the future.

    Now we can get some direction for some companies. In addition, there could be mini rally in some tea plantations companies during next six months especially in December and January due to higher tea prices. There is a shortage in tea inventory globally due to low production in countries such as Kenya, India and Sri-Lanka.

    If you really know that loss making companies and companies with falling profits are going to make profits in the future and going to become turnaround companies then it is wise to put some money on them too.

    Banking, Development banks, insurance and Finance sector is the leading sector in Sri-Lanka. They will make profits irrespective of low or high interest rate environment. Tourism, food and beverage sector also will become leading sectors in the future. Keep eye on food processing companies in the food and beverage sector.

    In addition, investors should rotate their stocks and sectors now.
  • [Updated] [Updated] FDB: Updat... reply from MarketWatch, 16 Nov 09
  • Rehan I think this will be very useful for members. Thanks.

    I tried to download latest quarterly results of following companies.
    #DOCK can download.

    Sep Quarterly results of #BFL was not there.

    There is a problem in downloading SEP quarterly results of #BALA due to some error.

    I also noticed members could select companies in sector wise easily.
  • [Updated] #BFL and #GRAN..! reply from MarketWatch, 13 Nov 09
  • Hi Venuje,

    I suggest it is better if you do some study on interested sectors before buy good stocks in those sectors.

    Never depend on stock tips and other people’s recommendations.

    Remember some stocks you must buy and sell. Some stocks you should hold and some stocks you should keep for the long run.

    I am very bullish on #BFL now. They announced better than expected results.

    BFL will benefit from tourism rebound, increased activities in north and east, development of their own maize project, eying export market, business expansion and lower interest rate etc. Their fixed assets such as land should revalue now.

    Their net asset per share: Rs.30.77 : Six months earning per share: 2.34

    They can easily report one year earning per share around 6

    Therefore, #BFL is one of the deeply discounted stocks in the CSE.

    If all hotels fully books in the future, BFL, and GRAN will have to supply more and more their products to tourism industry in addition to consumers.

    Last quarter NDB also has become one of the main shareholders of BFL.

    #GRAN also will benefit due to some of the above facts and lower interest rate. They will have to supply more and more animal feed and chicken products in the future.

    Once #GRAN release their quarterly results you can get some idea.


    If long-term fundamentals become weak, we should sell any stock irrespective of blue chip or hidden gem.

    Recently I have noticed some investors have sold stocks too early without identifying some medium term and long term rapid growth.
  • [Updated] #DOCK ROCKS reply from MarketWatch, 13 Nov 09
  • Yes, both #BFL and DOCK has made good results. They will make more profits during next two quarters as well due to some positive factors.

    Their stock prices will go up rapidly during next four months. They are real gems in the CSE now.
  • [Updated] Stocks to watch now:... reply from MarketWatch, 13 Nov 09
  • Main reason: They are going to make profits in the future.

    HI Jaya0000. I think, it is better if you do some study before buying any stock. Never rely on stock tips and other peoples recommendations.

    However, you can get some ideas about some quality stocks from this forum in the CSE.

    If you click on any stock you like, then you can learn about it. When SAMP and DOCK trading around Rs.120/- I answered some questions. You can read them. In addition, I have mentioned about #BFL as well in my answers.

    Last year I knew companies such as #BFL, DOCK are going to make profits in the future and that is why I mentioned #BFL as a hidden gem


    In short, I like to buy those stocks due to some of the following reasons or due to all of the following reasons.

    Whenever we see value and strong growth, we should buy aggressively.

    Future growth and earnings
    Tourism rebound
    Latest positive developments
    Hidden fixed assets will have to revalue for one company
    Business expansion
    New markets
    Innovative ideas
    New products
    New sub products
    Better cost control
    Other positive factors including less risk than in the past.
    Excellent financial ratios in some companies.
    These companies are making profits and they will make more and more profits in the future.
    Some will have biggest growth in their business life
    Lower interest rate

    BFL released their results today and it is very impressive. They will have more and more profits especially during next two quarters due to tourism season and rebound and some other positive factors. I suggest it is better if you read their latest annual report to get better understanding about their plans. They will have biggest growth in their business life in the future.
  • [Updated] Does anyone see a tu... reply from MarketWatch, 4 Nov 09
  • I agree with Innam. The best time to buy is when everyone else is selling.

    More about markets

    Avoid over priced stocks appreciated more than 300% during last six months
    Buy aggressively massively undervalued stocks appreciated less than 50% during last six months
    Hold quality undervalued stocks with greatest potential not only next 12 months but also next five years
    Sell bubble stocks with extended P/E ratio
    Buy sectors going to benefit in the short run medium run and long run.

    I think some extremely overpriced stocks should come down to attract buyers.

    Investors now will have opportunity buy attractive stocks such as #HAYC, #DFCC, #COMB #DOCK and #HNB

    In addition, keep on eye on #BFL, #GRAN, #PABC and #LFIN

    In short, invest in undervalued stocks with great potential. I think we must think about buying #HAYC as well.

    Short term and medium term profit outlook for above companies are very good. Even some of the above companies have long-term potential as well.
  • [Updated] #TPL #KVAL reply from MarketWatch, 3 Nov 09
  • Innam Thank you for your answer.

    I think poultry sub group will have sustainable development in the future unlike in the past due to increased economic activities and tourism. More than that now poultry companies are in a position to obtain their raw materials locally. In addition, lower interest rate will help #GRAN, #BFL and #TAFL to increase their profit margin in the future.

    This sub sector will be one of the profitable sub sectors in the CSE.
  • [Updated] [Updated] Whats happ... reply from MarketWatch, 30 Oct 09
  • As Rehan said, it is better to put your money on solid stocks.

    If you are new, please learn not only about stocks but also about market players.

    There are different types of market players such as speculators, long-term investors and day traders etc. Then some are talking about market manipulation.

    Always invest in undervalued stocks

    Invest in hidden gems
    Invest in neglected sectors
    Invest in quality stocks
    Invest in simple business that you know very well.

    Remember future earnings are more important than past earnings. Do not rely on stock tips. Do not follow the crowd.

    Banking sector looks very attractive. Their P/E Ratio10, Market P/E 14. P/E Ratio of #PABC and #LFIN less than 5

    Now I will give you some stocks to watch during next 24 months.

    #BFL, #GRAN,# LFIN #PABC, #HAYC, #SEYB, # HNB #COMB # SAMP, #NTB, #
    Read their quarterly financial results. If their profits is going up you must find out why it is going up. Sometimes profits will come down in one or two quarter in some companies.

    But do not worry much about it. As long, as if you can see their future fundamentals are strong. If you see their future fundamental are going to become weak then sell.

    If you want to win in this game, you must buy, hold and sell
    Everybody will tell you to buy. They will never tell you to sell even if stocks become overpriced. Finally, average investors should think about margin of safety. .

    Currently there are overpriced stocks. We should sell them. Then there are quality stocks including hidden gems we should keep them for the next six years. Then there are massively undervalued stocks including neglected stocks. We should buy aggressively now.
  • [Updated] Why do we see more v... reply from MarketWatch, 28 Oct 09
  • Belpa,I don’t think I suggested this as a hidden gem. However, I knew there would be some potential in #LAMB when Innam posted this stock.

    By the way, today ex-dividend day we forgot that. Thank you Innam for your reply. However, Belpa their dividend rate is not that bad

    I mentioned following stocks as Hidden Gems long long ago:

    #BFL
    #HASU
    #CHMX
    #DIPD
    #MBSL

    All have gone up.

    #BFL will go up further during next six months. This is a real hidden gem. Net asset per share is around Rs.30/-.

    Among my latest addition, GRAN also will have upside potential sooner than later. Innm posted this stock when it was trading around Rs.12 just as LAMB. Most of the posted stocks gradually appreciating and I don’t think members have to worry much because they have invested in undervalued stocks and they should have considerable capital gain if they have invested by the time when our members posted in this forum.

    However, I suggest not to depend on other peoples tip and advice. It is better to do home work before invest in any stock according to the market situation.
    W
    e had so many problems during last two decades. Still we had some of the strongest bull markets in the world. We will have next biggest bull market sooner than later. We should have patient to reap benefits.

    I can remember I also mentioned following stocks as gems in one answer:

    #SAMP, #DOCK, # LLUB and AHUN
    Following two stocks will have greatest upside in the future:
    #LFIN
    # BFL

    More stocks to watch: We have do some study on following stocks posted by new members.

    # Royal Ceramics
    #MGT
    In addition, we have to keep eye on some blue chip stocks as well. I thought JKH will come down to Rs.125/. It went up today.
  • [Updated] #SEYB significantly ... reply from MarketWatch, 26 Oct 09
  • Hi Dnr Thank you for you posting. I did not know that Seylan Bank has improved their performance within in the short period despite having recent problems.

    Prior to current management #SEYB(X) were very attractive due to higher dividend yield.

    It stagnated for below Rs.10/- for a longer period. Then it went down badly due to withdrawal of deposits and other financial problems in the financial sector. Now it is trading around Rs.17/-

    Sometimes back, I had #SEYB(X) due to their higher dividend yield.
    According to financial results ending 30//06 /2009 Group quarterly results:
    Basic earning per share annualized:
    For the nine month ended:4.6, Growth 5.9%
    For the three month ended 30/06/2009:9.40, growth 288%

    Bank has done well during quarter ending 30/06/2009.

    We should keep eye on this stock as well.

    Factors to consider:

    Loan and deposit growth
    Provisions for bad loans
    Future income and growth.
    Interest rate movements
    Capital market activities
    Demand for leasing and other bank services

    Once we see strong balance sheet we should think about investing in this stock.

    I think generally almost all banks and financial companies will benefit due to increased economic activities in the future.

    As I said earlier, concentrate on two main driving sectors now in addition some hidden gems in other sectors.

    Banking and Financial sector: LB Finance, Central Finance and all Banking Counters.

    #PABC has best return on equity ratio. LB Finance has the best return on equity ratio in the financial and banking sector.

    Agri-business sector: Keep eye on #BFL and #GRAN now. Study their future plans, business expansion, new product ranges and financial results during next six months and next 18 months.

    Best of luck.
  • [Updated] Selling Pressure for... reply from MarketWatch, 23 Oct 09
  • Thank you for your answer.

    According to some analysts and industry expert they think there will more demand animal feed due to demand from chicken, fish and other animals feed, expanded activates in north , tourism etc. In addition, they don’t want to depend on foreign sources to get their supply such as Maize. Now maize is almost self-sufficient and it is fast expanding. Their locally mixed animal feed is becoming successful now.

    As a leader of animal feed supply in Sri-Lanka, will they have advantage in the future? Who are the other suppliers of animal feed in Sri-Lanka? Thanks
    I think we should accumulate gradually next two months and this time poultry sector will have sustainable development. There will be more demand from hotels not only during next 18 months but also next five years and beyond. There will be more demand for animal feed, meat, fish and other agriculture products due to expansion in tourism and other economic activities.

    Problems is we don’t buy when stocks such as #COCO, #LAMB etc trading around Rs.15. We buy when it past Rs.20. When dial trading around Rs.5 no body want to buy. It went up to Rs.9/-. Now there is a demand for stock.
    At least #GRAN is making profit now and they are going to make profits as well. Net asset per share is around Rs.20/-
    INNM YOUR POSITNG IS GREAT. We will have some opportunities in #GRAN as well.

    In the mean time, I did some study on share holding. Some industry experts in the sector including new top investors have bought shares in both #BFL and #GRAN during last 12 months. It is a bullish sign.
  • [Updated] what are fundamental... reply from MarketWatch, 21 Oct 09
  • In addition to above good answer I like to add some more.

    If you are new, please learn not only about stocks, but also about other market players as well.

    Fundamentally, sound companies will make profit. Revenue will grow. They can repay their debt. They have better cost control systems. They have strong balance sheet. Management is sound and honest. They have long-term growth.

    Future earnings and future fundamentals are more important than past fundamentals

    Try to understand at least basic financial ratios first. Such as P/E ratio, earning per share and net asset per share etc. Higher the earning per share it is better. You can use P/E ratios to compare companies in the same sector.

    For example: Banking and Financial sector P/E ratio: around 10
    P/E ratio of LB Finance: Less than 5. They have best return on equity ratio. Very attractive.

    However, in our market some times there is demand for stocks with P/E ratio more than 150. It is extremely bubble stock.

    Now I will take you to poultry sub group.

    All time records in the past;
    #TAFL= Rs.51
    #BFL=Rs. 31
    #GRAN= Rs.230

    Currently #BFL trading around Rs.19/-. Their asset per share is around Rs.30/. In the next financial year their earning per share, profit, net asset per share, growth and return on equity all will go up due to favorable fundamental factors.

    #GRAN is trading around Rs.14.50/-. Gran also will make profit in the current quarter.

    #BFL has less debt and it is a current leader in the sector. They will make
    good profit not only during next two quarters but also in the future as well. Look for their new products, business expansion and new market thoroughly.

    #TAFL has more debt and not making profit now. However, they expect turnaround during next six months.

    Then I will tell you about #DOCK. They have very good earnings and growth at the moment. They are the leader in their sub group.

    Some example for fundamentally sound stocks:
    #HNB
    #SAMP
    #COMB
    HEMAS

    Sometimes fundamentally, sound stocks will take time to appreciate. Market is not always fundamental driven. Some times market can go up without any fundamental reasons. In short, stock market is not 100% efficient.
    Invest in undervalued fundamentally sound stocks. Do not follow the crowd like last three days. Invest in business that you know very well and in simple business.

    Once you buy stocks and when fundamentals become weak then you must think about rotating your stock with other quality stock or you can sell.

    Best of luck
  • [Updated] Hemas reply from MarketWatch, 18 Oct 09
  • It is better to concentrate more on banking and financial sector and few other sectors due to lower interest rate, foreign inflows in treasury, bond and stocks, increased activity in capital market, tourism, business expansion, new products, new market plus other positive factors.

    Now I think there will be demand for HEMAS HODLING sooner than later. Liquidity also will improve.

    In diversified sector Aitkin Spence, Hemas Holding and in Poultry sector #BFL will benefit most due to increased in tourists, increased demand for their products, business expansion, new market, innovative ideas, and new products.

    Stocks to watch during next four weeks to six months:(Each will have different success story in the future)

    #DFCC
    LB Finance (#LFIN)
    #PABC
    #BFL
    HEMAS
    #CFIN
    Nestle
    #SPEN

    Even #NDB will go beyond Rs.250/- in the short run. #SAMP, #HNB and #COMB also will have some upside.

    Banking and Finance Sector P/E Ratio: around 10, Markets P/E: 14.87

    LB Finance has the best return on equity ratio: around 47%. P/E ratio: Below 5

    #PABC has the best return on equity ratio among banks. It is over 34%. P/E ratio: Below 5.

    Return on equity of #NTB, #COMB = around 16
    Return one equity of other banks= between 12 to 14

    Ratios will increase in some banks due to increased profits.
    #LOLC and #CFIN: between 14 to 19

    P/E Insurance sector P/E Ratio: around 11

    #HASU has best return on equity ratio among insurance companies.

    Food and beverage sector: Nestle has the best return on equity ratio around 111%. Cargile has around 27%
  • [Updated] Hemas reply from MarketWatch, 18 Oct 09
  • It is better to concentrate more on banking and financial sector and few other sectors due to lower interest rate, foreign inflows in treasury, bond and stocks, increased activity in capital market, tourism, business expansion, new products, new market plus other positive factors.

    Now I think there will be demand for HEMAS HODLING sooner than later. Liquidity also will improve.

    In diversified sector Aitkin Spence, Hemas Holding and in Poultry sector #BFL will benefit most due to increased in tourists, increased demand for their products, business expansion, new market, innovative ideas, and new products.

    Stocks to watch during next four weeks to six months:(Each will have different success story in the future)

    #DFCC
    LB Finance (#LFIN)
    #PABC
    #BFL
    HEMAS
    #CFIN
    Nestle
    #SPEN

    Even #NDB will go beyond Rs.250/- in the short run. #SAMP, #HNB and #COMB also will have some upside.

    Banking and Finance Sector P/E Ratio: around 1, Markets P/E: 14.87

    LB Finance has the best return on equity ratio: around 47%. P/E ratio: Below 5

    #PABC has the best return on equity ratio among banks. It is over 34%. P/E ratio: Below 5.

    Return on equity of #NTB, #COMB = around 16
    Return one equity of other banks= between 12 to 14

    Ratios will increase in some banks due to increased profits.
    #LOLC and #CFIN: between 14 to 19

    P/E Insurance sector P/E Ratio: around 11

    #HASU has best return on equity ratio among insurance companies.

    Food and beverage sector: Nestle has the best return on equity ratio around 111%. Cargile has around 27%
  • [Updated] #CINV vs. #PABC reply from MarketWatch, 14 Oct 09
  • We have to compare P/E, rates of returns on equity plus earning per share of #PABC, #LFIN with other stocks including financial stocks.

    If they analyse thoroughly they will sell other overstretched stocks and will buy #PABC and #LFIN aggressively.

    However as I said earlier we will see biggest growth in financial sector and agribusiness sector in the future. Future sustainable earnings are more important than past earnings and up and down.

    All times records

    #LFIN: Rs.100/-
    #PABC: Rs.40/-
    #BFL: Rs.31/-
    I think all of the above all time records will break sooner than later.

    #BFL will have one of the biggest growths in their business life in the future due to some positive factors.

    #GRAN also will have some growth and there is a possibility that their sister company three-acre farms #TAFL also will make profit during next six months.

    Some few financial stocks such as #TFC, #SEMB, and #CRL also will go up sooner than later. However, we have to analyse their long-term potential in these stocks.
  • [Updated] #CINV 20% share buy-... reply from MarketWatch, 12 Sep 09
  • Thank Pisssa6666. Did you identify undervalued stocks with fundamentally sound stocks?

    I can remember you mentioned about #PABC is attractive buy. Definitely, I agree with you.

    On return on equity basis and P/E basis, #LLUB and #PABC are attractive. #PABC has one of the best return on equity ratio in the banking sector according to last two quarterly results.

    On Net Asset value basis and P/E basis, #BFL and #GRAN are attractive.

    #BFL net asset value per share: around Rs.29/-
    #GRAN net asset value per share: around Rs.23/-

    #BFL has better return on equity than #GRAN and less debt in their books. Their earning per share, return on equity will improve during next 12 months.

    I mentioned #MBSL as hidden gem when it is trading below Rs.15/-

    I think sooner than later we will see price movements in #PABC, #GRAN, and #BFL surprise to many. I think investors should accumulate stocks such as #PABC, #BFL, and #GRAN now. #LITE will go up rapidly once they improve their balance sheet and when demand for their products increase. In addition each of above stocks have special single factor to appreciate their stocks in the future. If you do some study and research, you will realize.

    Problem is when stocks such as #EDEN, #STAF, #SERV, #COCO and #MBSL trading around Rs.16 /- level most of them are selling (except intelligent investors) due to selling pressure. When it passed Rs.20/- every body is trying to buy and some of them are trading around Rs.30/- level now and some stocks have become overpriced now.

    Then we have to look for other factors well. Some intelligent top investors including institutional investors strategically will buy stocks more than 5% of outstanding stocks in some companies. They will take opportunity to buy in high selling pressure and opportunity to sell when other investors are trying to compete each other to buy stocks. Therefore, we should follow these experienced top investors as well.

    In addition there are less known few institutional investors they buy more than 5% of outstanding stocks in less popular companies, neglected companies time to time. When there is turnaround in company and economy, they make above average return than others.

    Therefore, there are plenty of opportunities in the market even if you miss this rally in some stocks. Some stocks will rise during next 6 weeks rapidly than others. Some stock will appreciate gradually and in the medium and long term, they will have biggest growth.

    Sometime Mr Market takes times to recognize some valuable stocks. I think by investing in undervalued small and medium term stocks we can expect better return than other stocks. Some small companies will become big companies during next five years due to new market, opportunity and increased demand for their products.
  • [Updated] Time to turn on the ... reply from MarketWatch, 11 Sep 09
  • Thank you for both Innam and ronstyn.

    Frankly, I do not have position in #CFIN now. However, it is a real Gem.

    I would like to have some position at some point. Even if it goes up to Rs.350/- I will buy #CFIN depend on the company performance, value and demand for their services during next five years at that time.

    Recently I noticed some intelligent value investors rotating their stocks to undervalued stocks with promising future including neglected sectors. I think they are right. Because according to some analysts and these top investors they do not see value in some stocks in some sectors including hotel and plantations. I agree with them.

    In my earlier answers, I mentioned stocks such #MBSL, #SERV, #HNB, #DIPD, #CHMX #CFIN, #NEST, #BFL and #SPEN etc. I also mentioned #SPEN will go to Rs, 1000/-. Now it is trading around RS.850/-. There is another stock to watch now: #JFIN

    However, I suggest it is better to invest in undervalued stocks now. I do not think we should invest in over valued stocks even if companies are good. Value is very important. On that ground, I do not see value in some stocks including some hotel and plantations.

    I think #BFL will break its previous record price Rs.31/- during next six months. Thereafter it will go up further due to higher demand from consumers, tourism industry and increased economic activities through out the country and other factors.
  • [Updated] Time to turn on the ... reply from MarketWatch, 11 Sep 09
  • Thank you for both Innam and ronstyn.

    Frankly, I do not have position in #CFIN now. However, it is a real Gem.

    I would like to have some position at some point. Even if it goes up to Rs.350/- I will buy #CFIN depend on the company performance, value and demand for their services during next five years at that time.

    Recently I noticed some intelligent value investors rotating their stocks to undervalued stocks with promising future including neglected sectors. I think they are right. Because according to some analysts and these top investors they do not see value in some stocks in some sectors including hotel and plantations. I agree with them.

    In my earlier answers, I mentioned stocks such #MBSL, #SERV, #HNB, #DIPD, #CHMX #CFIN, #NEST, #BFL and #SPEN etc. I also mentioned will go to Rs, 1000/-. Now it is trading around RS.850/-. There is another stock to watch now: #JFIN

    However, I suggest it is better to invest in undervalued stocks now. I do not think we should invest in over valued stocks even if companies are good. Value is very important. On that ground, I do not see value in some stocks including some hotel and plantations.

    I think #BFL will break its previous record price Rs.31/- during next six months. Thereafter it will go up further due to higher demand from consumers, tourism industry and increased economic activities through out the country and other factors.
  • [Updated] #GRAN reply from innam, 2 Sep 09
  • Normally i'd say to stay away from #TAFL because it's the weakest of the 3 poultry companies, but currently the market's on a weird run and all previously undervalued counters are being pushed up. Since #BFL and #GRAN are both up #TAFL should be next in line (you should be able to buy it around 8.50 tomorrow), but keep in mind that the mood of the market could turn bearish. the GSP + issue is one thing that could sour the mood.
    What i didn't like about #TAFL is that still the sellers are outnumbering the buyers, i think #TAFL is a bit too risky. If you like agri companies #TESS looks better than #TAFL but look at #TAFL closely tomorrow if starts to break past 9 then it can get pushed to 10 levels.
  • [Updated] #GRAN reply from MarketWatch, 13 Aug 09
  • #GRAN and their sister company Three Acre farms have announced better than expected results. Cost has come down. Improvement in the economy and tourism will make more demand for their products. We can see some improvement in this sector now. In addition, now most of their raw materials can get locally and they can avoid losses from currency fluctuations in the future.

    Finally, #GRAN was able to make profit in two consecutive quarters. On valuation, this stock should go up sooner than later.

    However, Bairaha Farm (#BFL) has less debt in their balance sheet and their balance sheet is strong. Their asset per share is around Rs.29/- Should trade above Rs.20/-now.In fact; it has won many awards for their balance sheets from Institute of chartered accountants in addition to awards for their products. It is one of the deeply discounted stocks in the CSE.

    I think both #GRAN and #BFL have potential to go above Rs.20/- in the near future. There will be further upside in these stocks especially during next 6 months due to increased tourism and economic activities.

    All-time high for Three Acre Farms is Rs.54/. For Bairaha it is 31/. #GRAN Rs.230/-
    As a strong company in the poultry sector Bairaha Farm will outperform other companies during next 12 months and next 5 years.

    Bairaha (#BFL) and #GRAN will have to provide more and more their products not only to the consumers but also to the tourism industry especially towards end of this year. I think these two companies will benefit most due to increased in tourism and economic activities in the food and beverages sector. Indirectly Maize and soya farmers also will benefit.
  • [Updated] #SERV - Hotel Servic... reply from amanathilake, 25 Jun 09
  • Hey chap, Nizam can you tell us what are those 3 companies? Please...........
    I can guess two 1 must be #BFL other 1 may be #DOCK (you told me before).......not the 3rd one. (sometimes it may be #TAFL or #GRAN)

    So, #SERV......
    They splitted the share 10 for 1 basis last month when it trading around 150 /=(140-170). According to me the reason must be lack of liquidity.

    Ceylon Continental Hotel situated in a high security zone, but we cant argue that because, then what about #GHLL (Galadari), #TAJ, Hilton (Hotel Developers), TransAsia.....I know it's a big problem when comparing to resorts and other city hotels, but we must basically compare with others which have similar status. Not with beach hotels and resorts.

    Anyway i'm not defending #SERV, I just want to know the reason why it's not moving.

    There must be a upside movement of #SERV share price soon. so We'll wait n see.

    Amane
  • [Updated] If you are going to ... reply from MarketWatch, 23 Jun 09
  • Thank you for your reply.

    I just gave examples to select best number one and two in the sector. I was able read and analyst some balance sheets plus small report written by a one stockbroker sometimes back with good research. Do you know best balance sheets in each sub sector and main sector that you mentioned. Thanks

    For example: Dock Yard, Bairaha Farms etc.

    For example according to some analysts, they take #HNB and Commercial Banks as best banks in Sri-Lanka (Banking sector is one of the sub sectors of banking and fiancé sector)

    For example in Finance sub sector they like Central Finance.

    In Insurance sub sector they like #HASU and Ceylinco Insurance.

    Poultry sector is one of the sub sectors of Food and beverages sector. Balance sheet of Bairaha Farm is stonger than Gran, Three acre Farms. #BFL do not have accumulated losses and heavy debt. Share price of Bairah trading above the price of both #GRAN and #TAFL. This sub sector has become one of the favourites sectors among top global investors now. Do you know chicken sector is doing better than Dow Average now? Even loss making companies are performing well. Even top investment houses are recommending chicken stocks now. They take long-term approach.

    Banks such #HNB, Sampath and Commercial will have great opportunities in the future.

    Best plantains companies are extremely overvalued. Prices going up in small quantity.
    Even Chemical sub sector has become overvalued now.
  • [Updated] What is your next pi... reply from amanathilake, 19 Jun 09
  • oh dear!,
    THANKS a lot chabitha for ur insights......i really appreciate it......
    And also i must tell you that i don't own any #LCEY shares up to now.

    And i take this opportunity to thank Nizam for generous comments he made here. I really appreciate you, there may be doubts, chaos, errors but the comments, thoughts and insights are really important.
    Thanx again Nizam.

    Hey Nizam, and i think ur pick #BFL has a very good future potential. It's the hidden gem. but i'm not quite sure about ur other pick. It may be #TESS. Ha! Ha! Ha!
  • [Updated] Advise.... reply from MarketWatch, 2 Jun 09
  • Hi Chathu

    I think we must never rely on other peoples advise unless we know that their advise is correct and genuine. It is better if you do some research as well.

    With all viruses spreading, some global poultry stocks are doing exceptionally well. For example, Fourth largest chicken company in the USA currently it is trading around $45. This stock was trading at around $20 in November 2008.

    I think #BFL is one of the deeply undervalued stocks and once market recognizes it, stock price will go up rapidly. Their asset price is Rs.28/-. It has traded above Rs.25 in the past as well. Their competitors are weak now.

    I think globally strong companies in poultry industry will benefit in the next decade due to so many factors. Even some top investors are investing in farm companies and some top poultry companies have acquired poultry companies in India and Brazil now.

    One has to select stocks according to his principles and policies. For example, some people like to invest in companies with environment friendly and social responsibility. Some people do not like to invest in defence and arm industry and vice sectors such as gambling and liquor industry etc.
  • [Updated] any good stocks to b... reply from rehan, 23 May 09
  • hey nizam - thanks for sharing your insights :D

    I've added all the stocks you mentioned to my watchlist so I'll be tracking them from now on. As you mentioned #BFL seems to have created an interesting chart pattern for the last 6 months...check out http://www.stockit.biz/stocks/chart.php?symbol=#BFL&&chart=candlestick&&goback=6-months

    I'm no expert but have read up on the matter and it seems to be a "saucer-with-handle" so it seems and volume build-up at the end of April when the prices increased from a bottom of 8.75 to 11.75 LKR within just one short month :)